Scenarios for winning the division; scenarios for winning the #1 seed

[hondo in seattle]

A man can dream, can't he?  

But my rational, pragmatic mind tells me that we're not winning out.  We've been too inconsistent this season, and we're too banged up right now, to believe winning out is a realistic scenario.  

 

We started the season 4-0.  But since the hospital beds filled up and Brady lost his juju, we've been a mediocre 5-4 team.  I'm hoping for a 3-1 finish but, given the trend, 2-2 might be more likely.  

[Gregg]

14 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

A man can dream, can't he?  

But my rational, pragmatic mind tells me that we're not winning out.  We've been too inconsistent this season, and we're too banged up right now, to believe winning out is a realistic scenario.  

 

We started the season 4-0.  But since the hospital beds filled up and Brady lost his juju, we've been a mediocre 5-4 team.  I'm hoping for a 3-1 finish but, given the trend, 2-2 might be more likely.  

 

I think if they beat NE which will be a tough game then winning out becomes very possible. The Browns and Jets games the Bills will be solid favorites. That Eagles game is also looking very winnable with how badly they are struggling.

[Avisan]

22 minutes ago, jethro_tull said:

For the Bills to win the East the Rats need to lose to the Bills and 2 other games so we have the best record.  Rats lose to Bills, Ravens and Dolphins?  Possible. 

If we win out, just Jets or Dolphins over the Pats is needed.  We would win on Conference record tiebreaker.

[atlbillsfan1975]

21 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

A man can dream, can't he?  

But my rational, pragmatic mind tells me that we're not winning out.  We've been too inconsistent this season, and we're too banged up right now, to believe winning out is a realistic scenario.  

 

We started the season 4-0.  But since the hospital beds filled up and Brady lost his juju, we've been a mediocre 5-4 team.  I'm hoping for a 3-1 finish but, given the trend, 2-2 might be more likely.  

This week will tell us if this team was waiting for December to turn it on. Lots of injuries, but there is enough on this Bills team to win it all. Starting with Josh. 

[hondo in seattle]

11 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

I think if they beat NE which will be a tough game then winning out becomes very possible. The Browns and Jets games the Bills will be solid favorites. That Eagles game is also looking very winnable with how badly they are struggling.

 

I agree. 

 

I respect the 2025 Pats.  If the Bills beat them with good performances on both sides of the ball, I'll happily reevaluate the current state of the Bills.  

And, yeah, Philly looks beatable.  

[GoBills!]

Over the past two weeks I’ve grown more comfortable with our wildcard path to the playoffs, Benford is hot, our line play has filled in nicely, Shaq Thompson is doing well, Harriston is doing ok, Cole isn’t out of position. Josh and Cook are healthy or seem to be. 
 

if we get healthy at the right time and stay healthy we could be tough to be in a shoot out in the playoffs. 

[ganesh]

10 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I dunno - its been a weird year.  We got smoked by Houston away, and we lost to them in that absurd game in allen's 2nd year.  Kinda feel like its a "get that win back" type of thing.  I also think we haven't heard the last of KC.  I just can't see them dying when 10-7 is still on the table and the only teams in their way are the chargers and colts.  

Patriots, Broncos are currently shoo-in 

Jaguars, Texans -  Division winner and a. Wild Card  

Bills -  definitely in as a wild card 

Steelers are most likely winning that division, as Baltimore has tough games ahead

Chargers are the 2nd best team in the AFC West and I don;t see them losing that grip 

 

This makes it hard for the Chiefs or the Ravens to enter the playoffs.  

[Kelly to Allen]

10 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

So you think the patriots lose to the jets or the dolphins?

 

I think the pats lose to the ravens and possibly the jets but only if Tyrod plays

 

Dolphins are possible 

 

If the Patriots beat Buffalo Sunday which is obviously possible, pats are getting the 1 seed imo

 

[Matt_In_NH]

6 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

I think the pats lose to the ravens and possibly the jets but only if Tyrod plays

 

Dolphins are possible 

 

If the Patriots beat Buffalo Sunday which is obviously possible, pats are getting the 1 seed imo

 

Bills cannot win the division if the pats only lose to the ravens.  They must lose to fish or jets and bills run the table 

[Kelly to Allen]

5 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Bills cannot win the division if the pats only lose to the ravens.  They must lose to fish or jets and bills run the table 

 

Yes but a Baltimore loss allows buffalo to finish 12-5 and still win the division. 

 

 

[Matt_In_NH]

2 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

Yes but a Baltimore loss allows buffalo to finish 12-5 and still win the division. 

 

 

 

On 12/9/2025 at 1:26 AM, Kelly to Allen said:

If we win out I do believe we will be the 1 seed 

 

 

The latter is my point.   If you think they win out gets them the one seed then the pats lose to fish or jets. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

13 hours ago, ganesh said:

Patriots, Broncos are currently shoo-in 

Jaguars, Texans -  Division winner and a. Wild Card  

Bills -  definitely in as a wild card 

Steelers are most likely winning that division, as Baltimore has tough games ahead

Chargers are the 2nd best team in the AFC West and I don;t see them losing that grip 

 

This makes it hard for the Chiefs or the Ravens to enter the playoffs.  

 

Only thing with chargers is schedule - @Chiefs, @Cowboys, Texans, @Broncos.  Nothing easy, 3 road games, and they HAVE to win 2.  Win @KC this week and i think they'll be good though. 

 

They're really banged up on the offensive line as well, but their defense is still playing well.  If they were to lose to KC, and then 2 of the other games KC would jump them should they win out. 

[TheFunPolice]

3 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Only thing with chargers is schedule - @Chiefs, @Cowboys, Texans, @Broncos.  Nothing easy, 3 road games, and they HAVE to win 2.  Win @KC this week and i think they'll be good though. 

 

They're really banged up on the offensive line as well, but their defense is still playing well.  If they were to lose to KC, and then 2 of the other games KC would jump them should they win out. 

 

KC fans will be cheering for us this week. 

 

They will want Denver to have to try week 18 and not just throw the game. Denver needs to be in a spot where they have to win for the #1 seed in week 18, or else they'll lay down for the Chargers and KC will be left out even if they win out. 

 

IF NE runs away with the #1 seed Denver also has no reason to play week 18. 

Edited 20 hours ago by TheFunPolice

[Gregg]

13 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

I think the pats lose to the ravens and possibly the jets but only if Tyrod plays

 

Dolphins are possible 

 

If the Patriots beat Buffalo Sunday which is obviously possible, pats are getting the 1 seed imo

 

Isn't Tyrod hurt. The Jets are playing Cook at QB. At least they did vs Miami. Barring a major upset I can't see the Pats losing to the Jets. Maybe Miami can beat them but that game is in NE and Miami doesn't do well in the cold especially Tua. Bills will have to beat them, and the Ravens will have too as well. We will need another Pats loss. I just don't think it will happen. This is assuming the Bills win out which I think they will do if they beat NE.

[TheFunPolice]

It's going to get crazy at the end. 

 

The thing we also know is that there are always upsets nobody saw coming. I'm just picking chalk or maybe mild upsets using the playoff machine and you can get all sorts of crazy outcomes still. 

 

I've had the Bills get the #1 seed in week 18 with Miami beating NE

I've had all of DEN, LA and KC get in and the Texans out 

I've had CIN win their division (it is not that crazy)

I've had JAX the #1 seed 

 

4 games is a lot, and a ton can still happen. Denver could lose 4 in a row with their schedule, as could LA. 

 

JAX has 2 tough games and 2 jokes, but we have seen this story before. Remember when a horrible TEN team beat MIA who was leading our division, and put us back in the driver's seat? 

 

PIT has MIA, CLE, DET, BAL. They are at 7 wins and I could easily see them slip up. Who trusts them to lock it down? 

 

Teams lose inexplicable games every season. GB lost to CLE this year. Crazy stuff can and does happen, so it'll be a lot of fun! 

 

 

 

[MDH]

On 12/9/2025 at 8:59 AM, MasterStrategist said:

getting the 5 seed is very important.  Much rather play at Pitt again, or even Baltimore, vs travelling to Houston (who I think will ultimately win that division and be the #3 seed).

5 seed in important for the matchup but it’s also important for the seed. With the way the AFC is all clustered together there’s a very real chance the Bills could host a playoff game as the 5 seed.

[TheFunPolice]

I just had a crazy week 18 scenario: Chargers/Denver 

 

Chargers either win the game and the division or miss the playoff entirely 

Denver either wins and wins the division and is the 2 seed or if they lose they're the 5 seed 

 

In that scenario if the Chargers win all of DEN,LA and KC get in and the Colts and Texans are out. 

If Denver wins DEN and KC are in and the Colts replace the Texans. 

 

I also think in playing with multiple scenarios that Baltimore has a great shot at their division still. 

Edited 19 hours ago by TheFunPolice

[MDH]

Just now, TheFunPolice said:

PIT has MIA, CLE, DET, BAL. They are at 7 wins and I could easily see them slip up. Who trusts them to lock it down? 

 

 

 

I don’t think it’s a crazy thought that the Bengals can still win that division with a 8-9 record.

 

What it takes…

 

Cincy wins out vs.

Balt

@Mia

Ariz

Clev

 

Steelers loses 3 of 4 vs.

Mia

Det

Clev

Balt

 

Baltimore loses this week to Cincy and 1 more vs.

NE

GB

Pitt

The most likely way this happens is if Pitt loses to Miami & Detroit then at Baltimore in the season finally while Balt stumbles vs NE or GB.

 

I don’t trust this Steelers team at all…which is why I hope they win the division and the Bills get the 5 seed.

[TheFunPolice]

4 minutes ago, MDH said:

I don’t think it’s a crazy thought that the Bengals can still win that division with a 8-9 record.

 

What it takes…

 

Cincy wins out vs.

Balt

@Mia

Ariz

Clev

 

Steelers loses 3 of 4 vs.

Mia

Det

Clev

Balt

 

Baltimore loses this week to Cincy and 1 more vs.

NE

GB

Pitt

The most likely way this happens is if Pitt loses to Miami & Detroit then at Baltimore in the season finally while Balt stumbles vs NE or GB.

 

I don’t trust this Steelers team at all…which is why I hope they win the division and the Bills get the 5 seed.

 

 

Everyone in the AFC is hoping for the Steelers bye 

 

The 5 seed is basically a 2nd bye week if PIT wins that division but becomes very tough if either BAL or CIN do. 

 

For all their issues Baltimore would be a tough out at home in the playoffs. All the talk early in the year was that Baltimore was the best team in the AFC and this was going to be Lamar's year to get it done. 

Edited 19 hours ago by TheFunPolice

[Kelly to Allen]

28 minutes ago, Gregg said:

Isn't Tyrod hurt. The Jets are playing Cook at QB. At least they did vs Miami. Barring a major upset I can't see the Pats losing to the Jets. Maybe Miami can beat them but that game is in NE and Miami doesn't do well in the cold especially Tua. Bills will have to beat them, and the Ravens will have too as well. We will need another Pats loss. I just don't think it will happen. This is assuming the Bills win out which I think they will do if they beat NE.

 

Tyrod has a mild groin strain, so he might play in a couple weeks