AFC Midseason Rankings

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, corta765 said:

Agreed.

 

I also think alotttt of media wants BAL in biggest so many of them were high on the Ravens at the start of the season and them missing the playoffs would not be a great look for the masses. It ignores the fact that their schedule is no joke still, their tie breakers suck, and they still have injuries that have weakened a team that is not nearly the monster it was thought to be. Like Josh/Pat Lamar gives them a chance every day so you cannot discount that, but reality is a different thing too.

Let’s face it, the playoffs with Josh, Patty and Lamar is better than the playoffs with just Josh and Patty.  

[JP51]

1 minute ago, corta765 said:

Agreed.

 

I also think alotttt of media wants BAL in biggest so many of them were high on the Ravens at the start of the season and them missing the playoffs would not be a great look for the masses. It ignores the fact that their schedule is no joke still, their tie breakers suck, and they still have injuries that have weakened a team that is not nearly the monster it was thought to be. Like Josh/Pat Lamar gives them a chance every day so you cannot discount that, but reality is a different thing too.

It is... Lamar with a Hammy, Derek Henry is different at the end of a season... I am not writing their obituary.. but if they do find their way in IMO it was be as historic as the Bills over taking the Dolphins a couple years ago to win the division... when they were down like 3 games with 5 to go... or whatever. It can be done... but I think its gonna be harder than a lot of people think

Just now, NewEra said:

Let’s face it, the playoffs with Josh, Patty and Lamar is better than the playoffs with just Josh and Patty.  

I would prefer the playoffs with Just Josh not gonna lie LOL 🤣

[corta765]

32 minutes ago, JP51 said:

It is... Lamar with a Hammy, Derek Henry is different at the end of a season... I am not writing their obituary.. but if they do find their way in IMO it was be as historic as the Bills over taking the Dolphins a couple years ago to win the division... when they were down like 3 games with 5 to go... or whatever. It can be done... but I think its gonna be harder than a lot of people think

100% agree. The one difference is BUF was never under .500. Climbing out of 3-5 is a truly sizable and exhausting task. Buffalo had actually clinched a playoff spot before playing Miami in 23' and once they got by KC DAL the path looked relatively doable for the playoffs at least. Miami truly did blow that division crown and it is wild it ended up coming down to that.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 hours ago, SF Bills Fan said:

Agree on most of this, but I think the Ravens will keep improving, getting healthy and their schedule is fairly light here on. I think they will be the team that is scary at playoff time. If we are in the AFC Championship game, I'd bet they are the team we play.

 

I don't think their schedule is inherently difficult - but 5 division games, New England, and GB on the road isn't particularly good.  Even Minnesota this weeks not really a cupcake.  Almost no margin for error.  

[DrBob806]

3 hours ago, Dukestreetking said:

Bills now #1 in ESPN power rankings. So we got that going for us.

I didn't see that, I've got YouTube TV😬

[nedboy7]

32 minutes ago, DrBob806 said:

I didn't see that, I've got YouTube TV😬

 

Yeah this is getting stupid.  

[folz]

Nice post OP. My favorite line was: "On To The 2027 Draft: New York Jets" 😂

 

The AFC is wide open. There is no reason to not still have Super Bowl aspirations. There is no team that scares me in the AFC. Indy has looked good and Taylor is a stud, but Daniel Jones is their QB; we proved once again we can beat KC (still gotta do it in the post-season of course if we meet up with them); Baltimore may not make the playoffs; Pittsburgh is a paper tiger; Jacksonville, please. And I still think we are a better overall team (and obviously more seasoned and with the best QB) right now than the Pats, Broncos, and Chargers (although they are all good teams with good QBs). No other AFC team has more than 3 wins currently. I'm not saying we couldn't lose to any of those teams listed above, just that none of them scare me like Baltimore last year or K.C. for several years. This is a good year to make a run. 

 

 

And the NFL is funny. Perceptions change every week with every win or loss. The Bills were ranked 9th in the Power rankings before the KC game (did anyone really think we were only the 9th best team in the league?)---after beating KC, we jumped back up to #4 (KC fell from #3 to #6). Seattle jumped 5 places into #1 overall with a win against the 3-6 Commanders, The Rams jumped up 5 spots into 2nd place in the Power rankings after beating 1-8 New Orleans. I know Power Rankings don't mean anything, just using it as an example about how fickle people's perceptions are of teams throughout the season.

 

 

And as far as having an easy easy schedule, well, that is starting to balance out a bit now. Here are the win percentages of teams that the current top four AFC leaders (by record) have beaten.

 

Colts' (7-2) wins:

Miami (2-6), Denver (7-2), Tenn (1-8), Las Vegas (2-6), Arizona (3-5), Chargers (6-3), Titans (1-8). 36% win percentage of opponents.

 

Denver's (7-2) wins :

Tenn (1-8), Cinn (3-6), Philly (6-2) Jets (1-7), Giants (2-7), Dallas (3-5), Houston (3-5). 29.82% win percentage of opponents.

 

Patriots' (7-2)wins:

Miami (2-7), Carolina (5-4), Buf (6-2), New Orleans (1-8), Tenn (1-8), Cleveland (2-6), Atlanta (3-5). 33.33% win percentage of opponents.

 

Bills' (6-2) wins:

Baltimore (3-5), Jets (1-7), Miami (2-7), New Orleans (1-8), Carolina (5-4), Kansas City (5-4). 32.69% win percentage of opponents.

 

 

If the Bills had won the Patriots game (they lost by 3 points), the win percentage of teams they beat would be 40.35% and the Pats win percentage of teams they beat would be 26.92%. Obviously you could do that with any team...well, if they had won that game...I'm just trying to point out that perception is such a moving target in the NFL. If the Bills win that game, they are a 1.5 games ahead of the Pats and with a much stronger win percentage of teams they beat.

 

The Bills are still one of the best teams in the league, regardless of other factors. It could still be our year.

 

Edited 15 hours ago by folz

[Alphadawg7]

9 hours ago, corta765 said:

I did the exercise at the quarter poll and I am back at the midway point. There is certainly some separation being created but also some teams that are hard to still get a full read which probably means they are an up and down team in general.

As always comment, disagree, ask for Beane to fire me etc.. lets discourse

 

Still Feel Like The Class of The AFC BUT Major * For Each

Buffalo Bills- 6-2 with a golden look at the 1 seed if they take care of business.. but that WR corp is a problem if they get down chasing and the defense has been hurt by injuries robbing its full potential.

Kansas City Chiefs- They look to have turned the corner before losing to the Bills in game they never had control. At 5-4 they can still take the division but the 1 seed is probably toast and even the division will require a lot of hard nose football to take it. They are different come playoff time, but being a road team needing 3 wins vs 1 seed at home needing 2 is very different.

 

Their Good, Just No Track Record

Indianapolis Colts- I have no doubt Indy is a really good team and the stats back it up. The question is whether Jones is a 99' Rams style new kid on the block story or the 2008 Titans with Kerry Collins which was a nice story but didn't have the gas come postseason.

 

Want To Believe As The Record Is Good But...

New England Patriots- Their only quality win is over Buffalo in a game Buffalo made a million mistakes. Maye is legit, but the rest of the roster still is light on talent and what happens when they do play Tampa, Baltimore, Buffalo etc.. They can easily win 12 games, but they just need to prove it is real, Maye we do know is real

Denver Broncos- The roster is superb and they have some quality wins. The big question and driving factor on their season is whether Bo can actually take a step or his good/bad nature is who he is. If he cannot be more good then bad they will not take the division.

 

Coaching, Injuries, Or Talent Limit Their Ceiling

Los Angeles Chargers- Coaching actually helps here but the injuries to their offensive line just lower substantially their ceiling and without Alt they are not the same offense regardless of Herbert. Probably a wild card team but hard to see a run outside of Herbert going off

Pittsburgh Steelers- The offense is doing what it can and at times is pretty decent. The defense though is a shell of itself and even at its best it is a middling opportunistic unit. Tomlin has his good and bad weeks. I still think they take the division and have the ability to be a spunky out but the best teams should have their way.

 

They Still Need To Go 7-2 To Make It In

Baltimore Ravens- They certainly look better and the offense is going. They also basically cannot slip up much the remainder of the way as they sit at 2-3 in conference and the defense still is not what it has been. I see a stiffer road here then people want to believe.

 

Maybe Frisky Enough For Playoffs

Jacksonville Jaguars- Every time they make you want to believe they crap out against a lesser team. Regardless the defense isn't bad and the offense when it is humming can be good. Can they get to 10 wins?

Houston Texans- Their defense might be the best in the NFL but the offensive line is the worst. Stroud has looked better, but between early losses that put them in a hole and an offense not scaring anyone it just feels like low chance they run the table especially with IND rolling and JAX looking solid to in division.

 

Trash

Cincinnati Bengals- They won't sell off their best pieces to retool like Hendrickson, their offense is great even without Burrow, and they are at this point directionless in terms of the teams identity. Maybe they fire Taylor? Maybe they trade like they should've in the offseason Higgins to remold the defense? Maybe they finally admit their entire team strategy is Trash? I doubt any of this happens and they do the same sh*t again next offseason.

 

The Rebuild Is On

Miami Dolphins- Welp that was that. They had a fun run for a few years where they showed signs of being a threat ... and then they couldn't get it going Tua was figured out etc.. Rebuild is on.. does McDaniel stay?

Oakland sorry Vegas Raiders-I get it, they tried thinking with Geno & Pete the old magic would come back and they could be frisky. Geno is fired, the roster does not have the talent to really go, and its another rebuild for the Raiders.

 

Watson Trade Worst In NFL History?

Cleveland Browns- A truly elite defense is being wasted because the offense sucks, the QB sucks, and they can't score. By the time the offense gets going the defense will need revision. The domino impact of not keeping Baker AND then trading what they did for Watson AND Waston being hot garbage is going to make an incredible 30 for 30 by ESPN.

 

On To The 2026 Draft

Tennessee Titans- Having had to watch a few Titans games or moments I think Ward has some legit potential... but that roster is so bad and needs so much help its hard to diagnose one specific issue.

 

On To The 2027 Draft

New York Jets- Multi year rebuild which they have loaded up for. Even if they draft a new QB this is going to take years

 

This is pretty spot on, I agree with pretty much everything you said.  Well done

[nedboy7]

Just cause we won last week you all don’t need to act like we’re top of the power rankings. 

[Nephilim17]

The Bills have a lot to do to improve in the second half, and beating the Chiefs is just one game, but if you asked me before the season if I'd take the Bills at 6-2 and the Chiefs at 5-4 with the tie going to the Bills, I would've said hell yeah. 

[Buffalo Ballin]

Nick Wright has us at number one on his weekly tier rankings.

[Pete]

I think you are underestimating the Pats.  They have won 5 in a row. It should be 6 in a row.  Pats would have blown out Pittsburgh, but Stevenson kept fumbling at the goal line.  Pats beat Buffalo in Buffalo.  
 

Pats are well coached.  Josh McDaniels is an excellent offensive coordinator.  Pats had an excellent draft.  Drake Maye is the real deal.  They have elite cornerbacks, and a very good defense.

 

Pats quickly have become an AFC force.  IMO Pats can hang with KC and Ravens- I’d love to see those games.

Bills are going to have a battle trying to overcome Pats lead in East.  Pats have a cupcake schedule.  Tampa is one of the few teams that I think have a chance to beat NE.  They play Sunday, and TB is banged up.  Pats are healthy. How are the Pats so healthy and the Bills devastated by injuries, yet again?

[corta765]

10 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

Just cause we won last week you all don’t need to act like we’re top of the power rankings. 

 

Bills and Chiefs have proven the most in the AFC playoff wise (even though BUF hasn't gone to SB they have beaten everyone else). Push comes to shove eliminating them is a major tasks for any other team.

Personally I think Denver is the most complete team currently and if Bo has more complete games like he did vs DAL they are even more lethal. BUT they have not won a division crown, playoff game, etc.. so still prove it time which is fair.

5 hours ago, Pete said:

I think you are underestimating the Pats.  They have won 5 in a row. It should be 6 in a row.  Pats would have blown out Pittsburgh, but Stevenson kept fumbling at the goal line.  Pats beat Buffalo in Buffalo.  
 

Pats are well coached.  Josh McDaniels is an excellent offensive coordinator.  Pats had an excellent draft.  Drake Maye is the real deal.  They have elite cornerbacks, and a very good defense.

 

Pats quickly have become an AFC force.  IMO Pats can hang with KC and Ravens- I’d love to see those games.

Bills are going to have a battle trying to overcome Pats lead in East.  Pats have a cupcake schedule.  Tampa is one of the few teams that I think have a chance to beat NE.  They play Sunday, and TB is banged up.  Pats are healthy. How are the Pats so healthy and the Bills devastated by injuries, yet again?

 

I actually think it is worse for BUF because Vrabel has had McD's number since he started coaching. Outside of the blow win in 2021, the Bills have struggled tremendously against his teams for a long time.

 

Their roster is not perfect and it does need help, but good coaching does wonders and I am firm Maye believer.

 

Again with all of that said lets see them against higher competition and lets see what happens come January. Reputations and legacies are made when the standings are set and playoffs go.