Some observations and questions regarding the Bills passing game.

[Chaos]

I have two unrelated observations I am hoping people can enlighten me on.  If you think my observation is just not correct, feel free to tell me that. If you think my obervation is correct and can help answer that I will appreciate it. 

Observation 1: I watch a lot of football games.  It seems to be the  Bills have more passing plays where the reciever is stopped and facing Allen, rather than being targeted in stride than any other team.  In my mind by a large margin.  But I have no stats to back it up.  

If my observation is correct is this because:

1.  The Bills run more routes that end like this than other teams. 
2. The Bills have the same number of players running routes intended for the ball to be caught in stride but the players don't get open. 
3. The Bills have the same number of players running routes intended for the ball to be caught in stride and the players are open but Josh can't or won't make that pass.
4. something else

Observation 2: Josh looks incredibly awkward throwing the WR screen passes. I also think he is telegraphing the screen passes. He seens to turn and look instantly when getting the snap without even looking down field. 

1. This is about the awkwardness.  As a kind of wierd analogy I have been involved in track coaching, and twice have had athletes who want to be Javilin throwers on the track team, and also wanted to be catchers on the baseball team.  Both benefit from a strong arm.   But the throwing motions are so different, it was not possible to optimize the players talents at either position. One player had fun playing both.  The other abandoned baseball and actually became a state javelin champion. 

 

I feel like forcing Josh to learn the footwork and throwing motion  for the WR screens detracts from his natural rythym on downfield throws. But it seems as though the rise of the WR screens has coincided with Josh "looking off" . 

Is there anything to this?

Anyway curious on feedback for these questions. 

[Simon]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Observation 2: Josh looks incredibly awkward throwing the WR screen passes. I also think he is telegraphing the screen passes. He seens to turn and look instantly when getting the snap without even looking down field. 

 

I think he has become excellent at that pivot throw and very rarely misses it.

[Chaos]

Just now, Simon said:

 

I think he has become excellent at that pivot throw and very rarely misses it.

But it mostly goes or 2 or 3 yards. 

[Buffalo716]

Just now, Simon said:

 

I think he has become excellent at that pivot throw and very rarely misses it.

He throws it like a submarine pitcher in baseball because he gets it under the defensive ends arm and shoulder all the time 

 

You get it up they jump up and knock it down 

 

So he goes low and bypasses them.. it looks awkward 

 

But I trust Josh and it seems like the correct angle to avoid what happened to Andy Dalton

[Simon]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

But it mostly goes or 2 or 3 yards. 

 

The result has nothing to do with the throw (unless he misses it)

[Chaos]

1 minute ago, Simon said:

 

The result has nothing to do with the throw (unless he misses it)

Completing the pass does not mean he does not look awkward throwing it. The point being that making this throw such a big part of his game, is disrupting other parts of the game leading to so many people think "Josh looks off".  

[Dr.Sack]

1 minute ago, Simon said:

 

The result has nothing to do with the throw (unless he misses it)

These throws are similar to RB screens in that they require deception, blocking and YAC. Bills O needs more of these layups. 

[GoBills808]

All QBs throw wr screens like that

[Chaos]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

He throws it like a submarine pitcher in baseball because he gets it under the defensive ends arm and shoulder all the time 

 

You get it up they jump up and knock it down 

 

So he goes low and bypasses them.. it looks awkward 

 

But I trust Josh and it seems like the correct angle to avoid what happened to Andy Dalton

I am not sure any baseball manager would have told Roger Clemens - we need to introduce a submarine throwing motion into 25% of your pitches.   I think this is the main point I am trying to make.  I am concerned it is disruptive to the rest of his game, which is why so many think "Josh looks off".  And the stats are lower than in the past. 

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

All QBs throw wr screens like that

real question. Do other teams run as many behind the LOS WR screens as the Bills have been?

[ScotSHO]

That's the design of a WR screen - it is a quick play to get the ball out there as fast as possible because they have numbers.  Meaning the WRs blocking are equal to the DBs in the area.  It's like a running play, and vastly different from a RB screen using offensive lineman.

 

The way Josh throws it is only in the interest of speed first and accuracy second.  Mechanics are probably going to be compromised a bit.

Edited 2 hours ago by ScotSHO

[Chaos]

1 minute ago, ScotSHO said:

That's the design of a WR screen - it is a quick play to get the ball out there as fast as possible because they have numbers.  Meaning the WRs blocking are equal to the DBs in the area.  It's like a running play, and vastly different from a RB screen using offensive lineman.

 

The way Josh throws it is only in the interest of speed first and accuracy second.  Mechanics are probably going to be compromised a bit.

I don't care if his mechanics were bad on a rarely called WR screen pass.  My concern is his mechanics are being compromised on other throws because of the emphasis on the quite common WR screen passes.  I don't go to the practices.  For all i know he never throws a WR screen in practice. 

[Simon]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I am not sure any baseball manager would have told Roger Clemens - we need to introduce a submarine throwing motion into 25% of your pitches.   I think this is the main point I am trying to make.  I am concerned it is disruptive to the rest of his game, which is why so many think "Josh looks off".  And the stats are lower than in the past. 

 

QB's change arm angles and platforms all the time during the course of a game.

I think you're just borrowing trouble with this.

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

 

real question. Do other teams run as many behind the LOS WR screens as the Bills have been?

No, because every other team trusts their WRs to get open on non screen

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I am not sure any baseball manager would have told Roger Clemens - we need to introduce a submarine throwing motion into 25% of your pitches.   I think this is the main point I am trying to make.  I am concerned it is disruptive to the rest of his game, which is why so many think "Josh looks off".  And the stats are lower than in the past. 

real question. Do other teams run as many behind the LOS WR screens as the Bills have been?

That I don't know

I do feel like anecdotally we make an effort to get guys the ball closer to LOS

 

I would argue that's likely due to their struggles getting open downfield

[Chaos]

Just now, Simon said:

 

QB's change arm angles and platforms all the time during the course of a game.

I think you're just borrowing trouble with this.

Do you think Josh looks off?  If so, any theories?  If not, thats ok. 

[Process]

Allen got much better throwing the WR screens starting last year. He was very bad at them before, like comically bad. 

 

Right now it's a non issue. 

[ScotSHO]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

I don't care if his mechanics were bad on a rarely called WR screen pass.  My concern is his mechanics are being compromised on other throws because of the emphasis on the quite common WR screen passes.  I don't go to the practices.  For all i know he never throws a WR screen in practice. 

 

Get better receivers, then you won't have to run this play 5 times a game.

[Chaos]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

That I don't know

I do feel like anecdotally we make an effort to get guys the ball closer to LOS

 

I would argue that's likely due to their struggles getting open downfield

Maybe the WR screens are more successful than I think.  I feel like they don't add much of anything to the offense. 

1 minute ago, ScotSHO said:

 

Get better receivers, then you won't have to run this play 5 times a game.

real question. Is it only five times a game? If feels like it is called at least once on every single possession, but I don't have stats to back that up?

[Simon]

7 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Do you think Josh looks off?  If so, any theories?  If not, thats ok. 

 

Yes.

I don't think that Joe Brady excels in designing route combinations or identifying weaknesses in opposing pass defenses.

He also hasn't shown much of a talent for repeatedly scheming people open.

As a result I think Allen sees a lot of small windows and, being protective of the ball, is hesitant to take them; that often results with them being off schedule and this is not a group of passcatchers that necessarily thrives in scramble drills. As a result things end up being harder than they need to be.

I think if Brady can figure out a way to more consistently work at a 10-15 yrd depth just underneath all the shells the Bills O is facing that Allen will have better options, more success and look more comfortable as a result.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Do you think Josh looks off?  If so, any theories?  If not, thats ok. 

 

He isn't faultless and he isn't playing his best ball right now. That's it. Every player has runs like this. Mahomes had had them (and guess what the Chiefs offense looks poorer when he does), Burrow seems to start every year like trash then magically wake up later, it's just really hard to be at the top of your game every single game in the NFL through multiple seasons. 

 

I don't think the oline has been as good in pass pro this year as the last two, I think the receiver issues are pretty well understood and Josh isn't as confident in things around him as once he was and it's just affected him a bit. I don't think it is like the end of 2022 and start of 2023 when his previous relationship was exploding and it was pretty clear to anyone who listened to him and watched him that at times Josh's mind was cluttered. This just looks and feels to me like a normal little period of middling form. No panic. At some point we will get the elite version of Josh and he will click into top gear. I have no doubts.