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Zero butt pucker. 
 

Josh Allen 7-0 after a bye

Mcdermott 8-0 after a bye. 
 

Road favorites playing non-conference opponents out of their bye are over 68% ATS since 2013. This angle is especially strong with teams with experienced QBs and coaching stability.


Historical Basis:

 These teams win outright over 90% of the time, and cover ATS nearly three-quarters of the time as the rested favorite.

When the favorite is in the AFC vs. an NFC foe, and owning a top-half DVOA offense, the trend sharpens.

 

 Week 8 2025 Match:
Bills (-7) at Panthers
Buffalo had a Week 7 bye and have an urgent need to end a two-game losing streak. Josh Allen has been exemplary historically off extra rest.
 

 

Carolina, while scrappy, has allowed 140+ rushing yards/game—they struggle to play from behind and lack explosive plays through the air.



 

Bills -7, with a high ATS win rate for this spot, is an actionable trend match.

 

 

So for all of these reasons and more I have no butt pucker. They may not even cover the spread but they will win the game. 

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