Keon WTF?

[Chandler#81]

6 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

Don’t blame covid for busted draft picks and terrible free agent contracts 

I blame Covid for taking our already perilous financial timeframe and drowning us to this point. Of course we’ve blown early picks. Too many to count now. But we haven’t had the resources to sign top tier FAs since.

[uticaclub]

56 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

I blame Covid for taking our already perilous financial timeframe and drowning us to this point. Of course we’ve blown early picks. Too many to count now. But we haven’t had the resources to sign top tier FAs since.

Ya, every team had to deal with Covid, not having the resources has more to do with Bad Budget Beane than any shutdown

[Chandler#81]

20 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

Ya, every team had to deal with Covid, not having the resources has more to do with Bad Budget Beane than any shutdown

Yes, every team dealt with COVID. But teams that sucked prior to Covid had little difficulty because they were Drafting higher. After acquiring Diggs, we were bottomed out. Then the COVID repercussions began.

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Yes, every team dealt with COVID. But teams that sucked prior to Covid had little difficulty because they were Drafting higher. After acquiring Diggs, we were bottomed out. Then the COVID repercussions began.

 

Yea there was definitely a disproportianate impact on the teams who were at the Bills stage of their build. Years 4 and 5 of Josh's rookie deal (I know he had extended but it is still a moment of maximum flexibility and opportunity) were the cap reduction / restriction years. I wasn't just the Bills. The Ravens and the Cardinals were similarly affected. They were trying to go all in on their guys and finding they were having to make restricted choices. Can kicking that should have been to allow you one or two more decently sized free agent contracts became kicking the can and void years just to stay cap compliant. 

 

So yes, everyone was affected, but the Bills were definitely in a small group of the most affected. Would those 2 or 3 extra decent FA deals over that 2 year period have been enough to get us over the hump? I think that is a stretch too far. It is an unknown. But the Bills were definitely affected more than most because it restricted the ability to go all in precisely at the time they should have been going all in. 

 

None of that is to say there were not mistakes, bad picks, bad contracts etc. But covid restricted their room for error. 

 

And I don't think it is fair to say that is still affecting them today. I think they'd be where they are cap wise now regardless. But definitely 2021 and 2022 the timing was really unfortunate for Beane and these Bills.

[RoscoeParrish]

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea there was definitely a disproportianate impact on the teams who were at the Bills stage of their build. Years 4 and 5 of Josh's rookie deal (I know he had extended but it is still a moment of maximum flexibility and opportunity) were the cap reduction / restriction years. I wasn't just the Bills. The Ravens and the Cardinals were similarly affected. They were trying to go all in on their guys and finding they were having to make restricted choices. Can kicking that should have been to allow you one or two more decently sized free agent contracts became kicking the can and void years just to stay cap compliant. 

 

So yes, everyone was affected, but the Bills were definitely in a small group of the most affected. Would those 2 or 3 extra decent FA deals over that 2 year period have been enough to get us over the hump? I think that is a stretch too far. It is an unknown. But the Bills were definitely affected more than most because it restricted the ability to go all in precisely at the time they should have been going all in. 

 

None of that is to say there were not mistakes, bad picks, bad contracts etc. But covid restricted their room for error. 

 

And I don't think it is fair to say that is still affecting them today. I think they'd be where they are cap wise now regardless. But definitely 2021 and 2022 the timing was really unfortunate for Beane and these Bills.

This take makes no sense to me.

 

we had next to zero massive cap hits in 2020 or 2021.

 

Josh’s hit didn’t fully materialize until 2024. Diggs was on a bargain deal with his accelerated guarantees from Minnesota.

 

the problem with the Bills in 2020 was not COVID. It was that of our 5 highest cap hits, 2/5 were stiffs like Mario Addison and Trent Murphy. Just like today where stiffs like Knox are costing us major on our books today.

So despite the argument we couldn’t “kick the can,” what can would we have kicked? Adding a few more void years to terrible players like Murphy and Star Loutelelelie? I fail to see how that harmed our chances. It probably helped maximize us by not letting Beane damage the team further.

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, RoscoeParrish said:

This take makes no sense to me.

 

we had next to zero massive cap hits in 2020 or 2021.

 

Josh’s hit didn’t fully materialize until 2024. Diggs was on a bargain deal with his accelerated guarantees from Minnesota.

 

the problem with the Bills in 2020 was not COVID. It was that of our 5 highest cap hits, 2/5 were stiffs like Mario Addison and Trent Murphy. Just like today where stiffs like Knox are costing us major on our books today.

So despite the argument we couldn’t “kick the can,” what can would we have kicked? Adding a few more void years to terrible players like Murphy and Star Loutelelelie? I fail to see how that harmed our chances. It probably helped maximize us by not letting Beane damage the team further.

 

 

I think you miss the point. We couldn't have a couple of those big contracts because when the cap should have increased $20m it retracted $20m. That is a $40m swing at exactly the point the Bills should have been wanting to go all in. 

 

And then I wasn't saying it stopped the Bills kicking the can. It just meant when they kicked the can (and they did onna fair few deals) they were doing that just to get under the cap instead of to invest

 

I am not saying Beane didn't have some bad contracts then, but the point is quite simple.... the cap contraction hurt the most the teams primed to go all in at the point it happened. That was the Bills, Ravens and Cardinals and possibly one or two others.

[RoscoeParrish]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think you miss the point. We couldn't have a couple of those big contracts because when the cap should have increased $20m it retracted $20m. That is a $40m swing at exactly the point the Bills should have been wanting to go all in. 

 

And then I wasn't saying it stopped the Bills kicking the can. It just meant when they kicked the can (and they did onna fair few deals) they were doing that just to get under the cap instead of to invest

 

I am not saying Beane didn't have some bad contracts then, but the point is quite simple.... the cap contraction hurt the most the teams primed to go all in at the point it happened. That was the Bills, Ravens and Cardinals and possibly one or two others.

Yeah, I guess I fail to see how that doesn’t apply to the Chiefs, who drafted their QB exactly one season earlier and also paid him massively and were also in their peak “QB still with a super low cap hit” window, are curiously missing from your list of teams that were somehow hurt disproportionately from COVID cap contraction. Of course, they managed to just keep going to conference championships and win Super Bowls despite their own $40M swing, no?
 

This timeline of where we had this COVID deficit gets pretty fuzzy too. We signed a massive FA in Von Miller after 2021. 
 

Sounds like kind of a crock to be frank.

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Yeah, I guess I fail to see how that doesn’t apply to the Chiefs, who drafted their QB exactly one season earlier and also paid him massively and were also in their peak “QB still with a super low cap hit” window, are curiously missing from your list of teams that were somehow hurt disproportionately from COVID cap contraction. Of course, they managed to just keep going to conference championships and win Super Bowls despite their own $40M swing, no?
 

This timeline of where we had this COVID deficit gets pretty fuzzy too. We signed a massive FA in Von Miller after 2021. 
 

Sounds like kind of a crock to be frank.

 

 

Being able to sing Von isn't really relevant. It wasn't that we couldn't sign anyone it is thar we couldn't go as all in as we might otherwise have. It affected the Chiefs, but they only had one year of cost control left. The teams I would say were most impacted were those wanting to go in all in both cap restricted years which were 2021 and 2022. 

 

And to repeat.... if anyone is saying it is the reason we didn't get over the hump that is a stretch too far. I don't think that is justified. Who knows if the Bills spend that money? Even more so if they spend it wisely. 

[RoscoeParrish]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Being able to sing Von isn't really relevant. It wasn't that we couldn't sign anyone it is thar we couldn't go as all in as we might otherwise have. It affected the Chiefs, but they only had one year of cost control left. The teams I would say were most impacted were those wanting to go in all in both cap restricted years which were 2021 and 2022. 

 

And to repeat.... if anyone is saying it is the reason we didn't get over the hump that is a stretch too far. I don't think that is justified. Who knows if the Bills spend that money? Even more so if they spend it wisely. 

Here are the facts.

 

From 2019-2022, Josh’s cap hits were 

 

$4M

$5.8M

$10M

$16M

 

From 2019-2022, Patrick Mahomes’ cap hits were

 

$4M

$5.3M

$7.4M

$35M

 

One of these teams is complaining they didn’t have enough money to go all in during COVID lol.

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Here are the facts.

 

From 2019-2022, Josh’s cap hits were 

 

$4M

$5.8M

$10M

$16M

 

From 2019-2022, Patrick Mahomes’ cap hits were

 

$4M

$5.3M

$7.4M

$35M

 

One of these teams is complaining they didn’t have enough money to go all in during COVID lol.

 

That is not the argument. I am giving up. I have explained it to you three times and you have missed the point.

[RoscoeParrish]

23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is not the argument. I am giving up. I have explained it to you three times and you have missed the point.

FWIW, I understand your argument completely.

 

I am objecting to the omission of KC from your list for any reason.

 

There is simply no world that a $40M swing in cap space affects a team with a $35M QB LESS than a team with a $16M QB.

 

My argument is pretty simple. If COVID cap contraction affected the Bills at Josh’s super low cap number, relatively speaking, it was felt much more with teams with huge QB cap numbers.

 

Dallas would be another one paying a huge bill for Dak at the time.

 

And then, relatively speaking, it wasn’t much of a disadvantage at all to the rest of the league. Because everyone was in the same boat. I don’t believe we were disadvantaged more than the Chiefs or Cowboys were. I think we were disadvantaged LESS because we had a cheaper QB.

 

Unlucky for the timeline? Sure. A bigger disadvantage than 28 other teams felt over that span? Not a chance.

Edited 2 hours ago by RoscoeParrish

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

FWIW, I understand your argument completely.

 

I am objecting to the omission of KC from your list for any reason.

 

There is simply no world that a $40M swing in cap space affects a team with a $35M QB LESS than a team with a $16M QB.

 

My argument is pretty simple. If COVID cap contraction affected the Bills at Josh’s super low cap number, relatively speaking, it was felt much more with teams with huge QB cap numbers.

 

Dallas would be another one paying a huge bill for Dak at the time.

 

And then, relatively speaking, it wasn’t much of a disadvantage at all to the rest of the league. Because everyone was in the same boat. I don’t believe we were disadvantaged more than the Chiefs or Cowboys were. I think we were disadvantaged LESS because we had a cheaper QB.

 

Unlucky for the timeline? Sure. A bigger disadvantage than 28 other teams felt over that span? Not a chance.

 

It is about opportunity cost. The teams who had one year of cost controlled QB lost less opportunity than the teams who had two years of cost controlled QB in the two years of the crunch. 

 

The point is not that it made it more difficult for the Bills than the teams who had already paid their Quarteback. Nor is it that this is the reason the Bills didn't win. The argument is the opportunity cost lost was greater for Buffalo, Baltimore, Arizona. Teams who both a) had decided their QB was the guy and b) had two years of cost control in 2021 and 2022 during the crunch. 

[Kirby Jackson]

30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is about opportunity cost. The teams who had one year of cost controlled QB lost less opportunity than the teams who had two years of cost controlled QB in the two years of the crunch. 

 

The point is not that it made it more difficult for the Bills than the teams who had already paid their Quarteback. Nor is it that this is the reason the Bills didn't win. The argument is the opportunity cost lost was greater for Buffalo, Baltimore, Arizona. Teams who both a) had decided their QB was the guy and b) had two years of cost control in 2021 and 2022 during the crunch. 

Really interesting point Gunner and one that I hadn’t considered. It why the Pats are dangerous right now. They have Maye for a few years of cost control and can be ultra-aggressive around him. That didn’t register with me at the time but now it’s annoying me lol. Damn you Covid!!

[HOUSE]

We have been WTF'en poor Keon for 10 days now, isn't this enough?