Is Cook worth it?

[BADOLBILZ]

49 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

While Cook's leverage may not be as good as next season, the motivation to hold out is because his numbers won't be better. 

 

The Bills plan is to use Cook the same as last season, and the same RB room is back intact.  TDs are kind of a fluke, and Cook may not get as many as last year.   For those who play FF you would not expect much, if any, increase in points.

 

So the fear for me is if you believe the above ,what is the reason for playing this year?  The "hold-in" for 11 games and get the money you would based on last years numbers - should get you over $12m/yr and a big pile of guaranteed money (around $20M).  Sacrafice most of the $5M now (and risk of injury) for the payday next year.

 

 

Why presume the numbers won't be better?   He has tons of room to improve in the passing game in particular.   You are giving him LeVeon Bell first-team-All-Pro cred like he has been catching 75-85 passes per year and stoning blitzers.    And even then with Bell teams saw that the one RB that pulled that and got paid ended up returning rusty and unmotivated and was subsequently a mega-bust of a signing.  

 

Cook's best bet is to prove he is a team player and is improving so teams feel comfortable giving him more guarantees in free agency.   Saquon did that and got paid in free agency despite a down year statistically in 2023.    I'd be surprised if Cook thinks he's going to be worse this season like some of you just presume he will.

 

[Doc Brown]

28 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Except in Cook's situation he may not be able to improve his stats, so why bother? 

 

His FA market right now is higher than what the Bills intend to pay.

He'd lose $5m if he doesn't play.  It might be worth it if he played at a premium position with a longer shelf life.  I don't think he'd ever make that $5m back in a second contract.  I'd be very hesitant as a GM to sign an almost 27 year old RB who played less than half the snaps two seasons ago to a top of the market deal.

[Richard Noggin]

Cook's relatively low mileage (in college and the pros) is a positive with respect to the RB age cliff, but also a potential negative with respect to his overall evaluation (why hasn't he had a larger snap % thus far in his career). 

 

The safest bet in my opinion is to help Cook go bonkers in this contract year, and allow him to move on with dignity. That seems like what Beane has in mind. Then Davis and Johnson and another rookie (or other low-risk acquisition) steps up. And so on and so forth. 

[MikePJ76]

4 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

Cook's relatively low mileage (in college and the pros) is a positive with respect to the RB age cliff, but also a potential negative with respect to his overall evaluation (why hasn't he had a larger snap % thus far in his career). 

 

The safest bet in my opinion is to help Cook go bonkers in this contract year, and allow him to move on with dignity. That seems like what Beane has in mind. Then Davis and Johnson and another rookie (or other low-risk acquisition) steps up. And so on and so forth. 

They have the option of the franchise tag also.

 

the bills rarely use it but it’s there if they want to.

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

No doubt the most expensive way of acquiring a player is trading draft assets and then having to play that player top of the market value.  The fact that the Bills didn't draft his replacement in this year's draft made me think Beane would either give him a new contract extension or let him play out his fourth year.  Maybe he was offered something for Cook before the draft but it wasn't anything higher than a day three pick.

 

I really wouldn't know what to do if I was Cook.  I think I'm playing this season no matter what.  On one hand I know that if it's best case scenario in the 2025 season like you laid out then his contract would be even bigger if signed next year with the salary cap going up.  However, you also face the risk of injury or declined production if our offensive line isn't magically healthy throughout the year like they were the last two.  At his age I pry would bet on myself.  As his agent I would advise him to get an extension with $25m or so in guaranteed money.  You're set financially for life. 

 

 

I'm not too worried about it.   The Bills have never passed on a RB in the draft or let one go in free agency and lived to regret it.  

 

It's the nature of the position.   Replaceable.   You can find talented one's all over the draft and at different levels of free agency.

 

If Cook tore his ACL on the first day of camp I'd expect Johnson, Davis and whoever else they had to be plenty good enough to win a SB with.    And the fact that Cook has had to come off the field on passing downs diminishes his value to me further until he can prove more worthy of being on the field on those downs.    Those are the downs that ended their season the past two years.

[Doc Brown]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'm not too worried about it.   The Bills have never passed on a RB in the draft or let one go in free agency and lived to regret it.  

 

It's the nature of the position.   Replaceable.   You can find talented one's all over the draft and at different levels of free agency.

 

If Cook tore his ACL on the first day of camp I'd expect Johnson, Davis and whoever else they had to be plenty good enough to win a SB with.    And the fact that Cook has had to come off the field on passing downs diminishes his value to me further until he can prove more worthy of being on the field on those downs.    Those are the downs that ended their season the past two years.

I don't know if Beane sees it that way though.  A surprising amount of GM's around the league don't.  I keep hearing he never gives RB's second contracts but the only two pieces of evidence are Singletary or Moss who are just JAG's.  He was in on trading for McCaffrey (who also happened to be the 1st round pick the last year he was with the Panthers) and has even said that he'd consider drafting a RB in the 1st round.  If he thinks that way why even have an analytic staff? 

 

I'd rather draft a RB that at minimum gives me 85% of what Cook gives me for a fifth of the price.

[Richard Noggin]

6 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

They have the option of the franchise tag also.

 

the bills rarely use it but it’s there if they want to.

 

No way they franchise Cook IMHO. Unless they're super confident in finding a trading partner. 

 

To franchise James Cook, after he reluctantly soldiers through his contract year, would be to invite distraction and disruption. The comp pick value could very well be fair enough compensation without the headaches. 

[BADOLBILZ]

37 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I don't know if Beane sees it that way though.  A surprising amount of GM's around the league don't.  I keep hearing he never gives RB's second contracts but the only two pieces of evidence are Singletary or Moss who are just JAG's.  He was in on trading for McCaffrey (who also happened to be the 1st round pick the last year he was with the Panthers) and has even said that he'd consider drafting a RB in the 1st round.  If he thinks that way why even have an analytic staff? 

 

I'd rather draft a RB that at minimum gives me 85% of what Cook gives me for a fifth of the price.

 

 

Yeah every so often GM's have to re-learn not to pay RB's.    I don't think Beane is an exception.   If anything he's worse than most with cap management and that's why the Bills were in cap stress early in Allen's rookie deal and are among the biggest users of void years in the league now etc..

 

The Niners are getting burned for giving McCaffrey the deal.   Saquon is due to blow another ACL so I doubt that deal comes anywhere close to ending well after all those miles he accumulated last year.    Henry is the one aberration because he's an Adrian Peterson level of beast but the next 7-8 or so guys on the highest paid RB list looks like a whole lot of regret.    RB's aren't suddenly going to stop getting hurt and flaming out young.   

[Victory Formation]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I don't know if Beane sees it that way though.  A surprising amount of GM's around the league don't.  I keep hearing he never gives RB's second contracts but the only two pieces of evidence are Singletary or Moss who are just JAG's.  He was in on trading for McCaffrey (who also happened to be the 1st round pick the last year he was with the Panthers) and has even said that he'd consider drafting a RB in the 1st round.  If he thinks that way why even have an analytic staff? 

 

I'd rather draft a RB that at minimum gives me 85% of what Cook gives me for a fifth of the price.

Cook is very good, but not elite. He barely cracked 1K yards in a loaded Bills offense so I doubt he would produce more than that somewhere else.

 

In my heart I want Cook, but in my mind I know it’s a bad idea. He’s an excellent speed back, but he can’t block and he can’t catch the ball. There’s a big difference between Cook and Barkley and Henry.

 

If there’s a Bijan Robinson or Najee Harris type of back available next year at the bottom of RD1 though I wouldn’t be against it..

Edited 18 hours ago by Victory Formation

[Doc Brown]

28 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

If there’s a Bijan Robinson or Najee Harris type of back available next year at the bottom of RD1 though I wouldn’t be against it..

I wouldn't but I understand why some would.  I believe the last first round RB who led their team in rushing yards to win a Super Bowl with their original team was Adaii in the '06 season.  I know correlation doesn't equal causation but you just lose the value of having a guy on a rookie contract at a premium position if you draft a RB in the first round.

Edited 17 hours ago by Doc Brown

[Stenbar]

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

No doubt the most expensive way of acquiring a player is trading draft assets and then having to play that player top of the market value.  The fact that the Bills didn't draft his replacement in this year's draft made me think Beane would either give him a new contract extension or let him play out his fourth year.  Maybe he was offered something for Cook before the draft but it wasn't anything higher than a day three pick.

 

I really wouldn't know what to do if I was Cook.  I think I'm playing this season no matter what.  On one hand I know that if it's best case scenario in the 2025 season like you laid out then his contract would be even bigger if signed next year with the salary cap going up.  However, you also face the risk of injury or declined production if our offensive line isn't magically healthy throughout the year like they were the last two.  At his age I pry would bet on myself.  As his agent I would advise him to get an extension with $25m or so in guaranteed money.  You're set financially for life. 

If the Bills do not sign him this year it is a going to cost a heck of a lot more to sign him as the season ends and into the offseason. So if your the Bills you sign him now to an extension, if you do not sign him you are either Franchising him next year or you are losing or letting him walk after this year. If he hits 1500 yards and North of 12 TDS he will get over 20 M easy next yr IMO. It is always cheaper to sign the player early. 

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I agree with most of this but if I was to n Cook’s shoes, I would do the same thing. This is the most leverage he will ever have in his entire career. Playing on a one year contract is awful for any player but especially a rb.  If he plays on a one year deal he: risks suffering a major injury; gets less touches that hurts his value, and the Bills run him into the ground (I don’t see that).

 

every other good player for his Bills draft class has gotten a new deal. And I’d argue Cook has the best resume out of all of them. His brother’s career basically ended at 27.  
 

I get how it is tough to pay rb. But Cook has gotten better every year. He was the BEST player in the championship game and we might have won if he touched the ball more. This is going to be a story on Hard knocks. 

I’d love to see a real breakdown of this. Is Johnson better? Sure but I think this has been way overstated how bad Cook is. 

 

 

This isn't the most leverage he'll ever have. He'll have more next year when they'll have to tag him or let him go.

 

It might be the time that Cook himself has the most on the line, as an injury really could ruin his career. Which is the reason he should maybe have accepted less but gotten a contract with some injury guarantees.

 

I've got nothing against him doing all this. I question - as many have - whether this is the best move he could make to further his own interests.

 

A lot of the reason those players in that same draft class you mentioned got those early deals is that they gave the team good value to do so. Cook did not. If he'd accepted a deal at around $10 to $11M, Cook would also likely already have a deal. Can't say for sure, but that's the way it seems. Generally if you want a deal early, you have to give something up to get it.

[Doc Brown]

25 minutes ago, Stenbar said:

If the Bills do not sign him this year it is a going to cost a heck of a lot more to sign him as the season ends and into the offseason. So if your the Bills you sign him now to an extension, if you do not sign him you are either Franchising him next year or you are losing or letting him walk after this year. If he hits 1500 yards and North of 12 TDS he will get over 20 M easy next yr IMO. It is always cheaper to sign the player early. 

It's cheaper but usually a disaster extending a RB before the last year of his rookie contract (Gurley, Dalvin Cook, David Johnson, Zeek, Chubb).   I'm having a hard time where one did work out off the top of my head at least within the last six to eight years.  McCaffrey you could argue was the best contract extension on his rookie deal but it was only a good deal for the 49ers (not the Panthers).

 

Edit:  I forgot about Derrick Henry.  Well worth the money for the Titans.

Edited 16 hours ago by Doc Brown

[Stenbar]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

It's cheaper but usually a disaster extending a RB before the last year of his rookie contract (Gurley, Dalvin Cook, David Johnson, Zeek, Chubb).   I'm having a hard time where one did work out off the top of my head at least within the last six to eight years.  McCaffrey you could argue was the best contract extension on his rookie deal but it was only a good deal for the 49ers (not the Panthers).

 

Edit:  I forgot about Derrick Henry.  Well worth the money for the Titans.

I agree for the most part, except that for the past 6-8 yrs RB's have been so horribly underpaid versus other positions the examples are really null. RB's are just now starting to get paid, and I would be surprised if you see the pay scale in relation to other positions exceeded. I believe the Bills have purposely decided as a team doctrine at most every position, to not have one star except QB, and attack their personnel lineup with many players. WR, RB, O-LINE, TE, DL, CB, S. LB they have only 5 and really treat that position like the Red headed step child of the philosophy. They have 2 good ones, and the other 3 are meh.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Stenbar said:

If the Bills do not sign him this year it is a going to cost a heck of a lot more to sign him as the season ends and into the offseason. So if your the Bills you sign him now to an extension, if you do not sign him you are either Franchising him next year or you are losing or letting him walk after this year. If he hits 1500 yards and North of 12 TDS he will get over 20 M easy next yr IMO. It is always cheaper to sign the player early. 

 

 

Over 20? Boy, I think you're kidding yourself there.

 

But could he get his $15M in that case? Yeah, maybe.

[Doc Brown]

59 minutes ago, Stenbar said:

I agree for the most part, except that for the past 6-8 yrs RB's have been so horribly underpaid versus other positions the examples are really null. RB's are just now starting to get paid, and I would be surprised if you see the pay scale in relation to other positions exceeded. I believe the Bills have purposely decided as a team doctrine at most every position, to not have one star except QB, and attack their personnel lineup with many players. WR, RB, O-LINE, TE, DL, CB, S. LB they have only 5 and really treat that position like the Red headed step child of the philosophy. They have 2 good ones, and the other 3 are meh.

I don't think they've been horribly underpaid as much as having to wait three years on your rookie deal to get an extension sucks for RB's because of the shorter shelf life compared to other positions.  Look at Isiah Pacheco.  His contract is 4 years $3.7m dollars because he was drafted in the 7th round.  Last off-season he could've gotten a pretty good contract after two years of solid production.  He gets injured his third year and isn't the same.  Now he's going into his final year of his contract and has to produce or he won't get much in free agency.

[MikePJ76]

8 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

No way they franchise Cook IMHO. Unless they're super confident in finding a trading partner. 

 

To franchise James Cook, after he reluctantly soldiers through his contract year, would be to invite distraction and disruption. The comp pick value could very well be fair enough compensation without the headaches. 

The franchise tag can be used as a temporary contract/ place holder to give them extra time to work on a long term deal.  This way he can not go to free agency.

 

like I said though and you did too I do not believe they use it, it’s not really something they do.  They would probably let him go get offers like they normally do.

[MR8]

Said this in another thread but maybe it's better here.....We'll know soon enough if he shows up ... Either way I'm in IDGAF mode now.... If he shows, run the ***** into the ground. Too many shades of his brother here. Terrible advice putting it out publicly that he feels "disconnected from the team and the city".

I mean I can understand how as a person he would feel disconnected from the team because they don't want to pay him, and the city because the overwhelming feeling out there is that he's not worth the money he thinks he is. It's human nature that if you think you're worth something and literally nobody else does, you're going to feel bum hurt by it... That said, this is what agents are for. Manage your clients expectations and let them understand what the real world is, not the fantasy world that they're living in.

I would have been fine with this guy moved for a fifth or sixth during the draft for this exact reason. It's a distraction, and frankly we're going to let him walk for nothing after this year. I just hope he ends up playing for us so we get some sort of value out of the money we're going to end up having to pay him on the last year of his deal.

For me the smart move would have been to move him for literally anything, let him be somebody else's headache, and draft of running back to stick in the backfield in an RBC. Ty Johnson is a fine piece as a scatt back receiver, Ray Davis show to me he can absolutely be a receiver out of the backfield and he's more of that thunder to Ty Johnson's flash... I'll be honest they were plays that I was a little disappointed in Ray Davis's ability to run over guys, but value above replacement, these two dudes 100% can be a tandem in the NFL without cook in the mix.

I'm on the train that no running back is for 15 million... Not even Henry or CMC... But definitely not Cook. I m an we pay Ty Johnson what $1.2M.... Is Cook 13 times better than him? I'd he really $13.8M better? The answer is ***** NO. Sure he's better, but in smaller degrees than people want to admit, and the financial trade is laughably lopsided here.

If this ***** nut wants to talk through the media to "send a message", then he's not smart enough to understand the message that's being sent back to him already. It's "bro we love you, but we don't value you like that. Let's get this done and you can go get paid next year like Gabe Davis.". The bills are known for letting dudes test the market. They do it with starters and scrubs alike... "Here's our number, go check the market and if we can make a deal happen we'd love to have you back.". ***** we did it with Ty this off-season, we let him see what the market was and he chose to come back.

I understand getting paid before your career is over, especially in a sport like football, and especially at a position like running back. That said, there's an absolute tone deaf imaginary world he is living in if he thinks he can stronger the team into giving him whatever he wants. So I guess I just don't understand what the end game is. He's not going to get paid what he thinks he's worth by the bills. It's just not going to happen and they've said as much. Stirring up more problems, I mean what does he want to be released? Then he should have just asked for that before the draft and before teams chewed up all of their salary camp space. If that's his end game he should have played his cards entirely differently to get off the roster when there was a huge amount of salary cap space that he could have been a part of. Now teams are full, rosters are full, caps are full, he has no play here. It's just ignorant and pathetic.

 

 

[dave mcbride]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'm not too worried about it.   The Bills have never passed on a RB in the draft or let one go in free agency and lived to regret it.  

 

It's the nature of the position.   Replaceable.   You can find talented one's all over the draft and at different levels of free agency.

 

If Cook tore his ACL on the first day of camp I'd expect Johnson, Davis and whoever else they had to be plenty good enough to win a SB with.    And the fact that Cook has had to come off the field on passing downs diminishes his value to me further until he can prove more worthy of being on the field on those downs.    Those are the downs that ended their season the past two years.

Re: the bolded, that's an interesting question. One could argue that Antowain Smith on the Pats was a better, more reliable player than the fumble-prone Henry, but Smith (along with all the other Bills backs from that era - Linton, Bryson, etc.) was a solid 3..7 ypc guy for the Bills. Plus he had turf toe in 2000 and looked like he was running in quicksand as a consequence that year. More generally, I think a lot of the poor RB production in that era was the line, which wasn't very talented at all. Regardless, with NE Smith had two very good Super Bowls, and I value postseason play. He rushed for over 200 yards in the postseason in 2001 and 2003 with zero fumbles. Against TN for the Bills in 1999, he had 14 carries for 79 yards and 2 TDs. He was a postseason gamer for the most part.

 

Marshawn Lynch is going the HOF, but it could be argued that Jackson achieved the same production. Lynch was the better player, to be sure, but maybe it just wasn't ever going to happen in Buffalo for him. But generally speaking, you're right. Hell, the last good year OJ ever had was in Buffalo.

Edited 9 hours ago by dave mcbride

[dave mcbride]

34 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Fair, but there are different circumstances in all those cases. I believe Gurley had bad knees from college. Johnson was older and knee issues. Chubb major injuries. Zeek kinda fat. 
 

id argue that the way Cook has been used in college and the pros means he’s going to age better than those guys. He doesn’t have nearly the wear and tear. 

 

LaDainian Tomlinson: https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=1858275. His production from 2004-2009 (the extension covered these 6 years) suggests he was absolutely worth it: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TomlLa00.htm. He was all-pro four times and won an MVP. The only down year was the last one. The other five were all good to great.