Is Cook worth it?

[BADOLBILZ]

49 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

While Cook's leverage may not be as good as next season, the motivation to hold out is because his numbers won't be better. 

 

The Bills plan is to use Cook the same as last season, and the same RB room is back intact.  TDs are kind of a fluke, and Cook may not get as many as last year.   For those who play FF you would not expect much, if any, increase in points.

 

So the fear for me is if you believe the above ,what is the reason for playing this year?  The "hold-in" for 11 games and get the money you would based on last years numbers - should get you over $12m/yr and a big pile of guaranteed money (around $20M).  Sacrafice most of the $5M now (and risk of injury) for the payday next year.

 

 

Why presume the numbers won't be better?   He has tons of room to improve in the passing game in particular.   You are giving him LeVeon Bell first-team-All-Pro cred like he has been catching 75-85 passes per year and stoning blitzers.    And even then with Bell teams saw that the one RB that pulled that and got paid ended up returning rusty and unmotivated and was subsequently a mega-bust of a signing.  

 

Cook's best bet is to prove he is a team player and is improving so teams feel comfortable giving him more guarantees in free agency.   Saquon did that and got paid in free agency despite a down year statistically in 2023.    I'd be surprised if Cook thinks he's going to be worse this season like some of you just presume he will.

 

[Doc Brown]

28 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Except in Cook's situation he may not be able to improve his stats, so why bother? 

 

His FA market right now is higher than what the Bills intend to pay.

He'd lose $5m if he doesn't play.  It might be worth it if he played at a premium position with a longer shelf life.  I don't think he'd ever make that $5m back in a second contract.  I'd be very hesitant as a GM to sign an almost 27 year old RB who played less than half the snaps two seasons ago to a top of the market deal.

[Richard Noggin]

Cook's relatively low mileage (in college and the pros) is a positive with respect to the RB age cliff, but also a potential negative with respect to his overall evaluation (why hasn't he had a larger snap % thus far in his career). 

 

The safest bet in my opinion is to help Cook go bonkers in this contract year, and allow him to move on with dignity. That seems like what Beane has in mind. Then Davis and Johnson and another rookie (or other low-risk acquisition) steps up. And so on and so forth. 

[MikePJ76]

4 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

Cook's relatively low mileage (in college and the pros) is a positive with respect to the RB age cliff, but also a potential negative with respect to his overall evaluation (why hasn't he had a larger snap % thus far in his career). 

 

The safest bet in my opinion is to help Cook go bonkers in this contract year, and allow him to move on with dignity. That seems like what Beane has in mind. Then Davis and Johnson and another rookie (or other low-risk acquisition) steps up. And so on and so forth. 

They have the option of the franchise tag also.

 

the bills rarely use it but it’s there if they want to.

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

No doubt the most expensive way of acquiring a player is trading draft assets and then having to play that player top of the market value.  The fact that the Bills didn't draft his replacement in this year's draft made me think Beane would either give him a new contract extension or let him play out his fourth year.  Maybe he was offered something for Cook before the draft but it wasn't anything higher than a day three pick.

 

I really wouldn't know what to do if I was Cook.  I think I'm playing this season no matter what.  On one hand I know that if it's best case scenario in the 2025 season like you laid out then his contract would be even bigger if signed next year with the salary cap going up.  However, you also face the risk of injury or declined production if our offensive line isn't magically healthy throughout the year like they were the last two.  At his age I pry would bet on myself.  As his agent I would advise him to get an extension with $25m or so in guaranteed money.  You're set financially for life. 

 

 

I'm not too worried about it.   The Bills have never passed on a RB in the draft or let one go in free agency and lived to regret it.  

 

It's the nature of the position.   Replaceable.   You can find talented one's all over the draft and at different levels of free agency.

 

If Cook tore his ACL on the first day of camp I'd expect Johnson, Davis and whoever else they had to be plenty good enough to win a SB with.    And the fact that Cook has had to come off the field on passing downs diminishes his value to me further until he can prove more worthy of being on the field on those downs.    Those are the downs that ended their season the past two years.

[Doc Brown]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'm not too worried about it.   The Bills have never passed on a RB in the draft or let one go in free agency and lived to regret it.  

 

It's the nature of the position.   Replaceable.   You can find talented one's all over the draft and at different levels of free agency.

 

If Cook tore his ACL on the first day of camp I'd expect Johnson, Davis and whoever else they had to be plenty good enough to win a SB with.    And the fact that Cook has had to come off the field on passing downs diminishes his value to me further until he can prove more worthy of being on the field on those downs.    Those are the downs that ended their season the past two years.

I don't know if Beane sees it that way though.  A surprising amount of GM's around the league don't.  I keep hearing he never gives RB's second contracts but the only two pieces of evidence are Singletary or Moss who are just JAG's.  He was in on trading for McCaffrey (who also happened to be the 1st round pick the last year he was with the Panthers) and has even said that he'd consider drafting a RB in the 1st round.  If he thinks that way why even have an analytic staff? 

 

I'd rather draft a RB that at minimum gives me 85% of what Cook gives me for a fifth of the price.

[Richard Noggin]

6 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

They have the option of the franchise tag also.

 

the bills rarely use it but it’s there if they want to.

 

No way they franchise Cook IMHO. Unless they're super confident in finding a trading partner. 

 

To franchise James Cook, after he reluctantly soldiers through his contract year, would be to invite distraction and disruption. The comp pick value could very well be fair enough compensation without the headaches. 

[BADOLBILZ]

37 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I don't know if Beane sees it that way though.  A surprising amount of GM's around the league don't.  I keep hearing he never gives RB's second contracts but the only two pieces of evidence are Singletary or Moss who are just JAG's.  He was in on trading for McCaffrey (who also happened to be the 1st round pick the last year he was with the Panthers) and has even said that he'd consider drafting a RB in the 1st round.  If he thinks that way why even have an analytic staff? 

 

I'd rather draft a RB that at minimum gives me 85% of what Cook gives me for a fifth of the price.

 

 

Yeah every so often GM's have to re-learn not to pay RB's.    I don't think Beane is an exception.   If anything he's worse than most with cap management and that's why the Bills were in cap stress early in Allen's rookie deal and are among the biggest users of void years in the league now etc..

 

The Niners are getting burned for giving McCaffrey the deal.   Saquon is due to blow another ACL so I doubt that deal comes anywhere close to ending well after all those miles he accumulated last year.    Henry is the one aberration because he's an Adrian Peterson level of beast but the next 7-8 or so guys on the highest paid RB list looks like a whole lot of regret.    RB's aren't suddenly going to stop getting hurt and flaming out young.   

[Victory Formation]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I don't know if Beane sees it that way though.  A surprising amount of GM's around the league don't.  I keep hearing he never gives RB's second contracts but the only two pieces of evidence are Singletary or Moss who are just JAG's.  He was in on trading for McCaffrey (who also happened to be the 1st round pick the last year he was with the Panthers) and has even said that he'd consider drafting a RB in the 1st round.  If he thinks that way why even have an analytic staff? 

 

I'd rather draft a RB that at minimum gives me 85% of what Cook gives me for a fifth of the price.

Cook is very good, but not elite. He barely cracked 1K yards in a loaded Bills offense so I doubt he would produce more than that somewhere else.

 

In my heart I want Cook, but in my mind I know it’s a bad idea. He’s an excellent speed back, but he can’t block and he can’t catch the ball. There’s a big difference between Cook and Barkley and Henry.

 

If there’s a Bijan Robinson or Najee Harris type of back available next year at the bottom of RD1 though I wouldn’t be against it..

Edited 2 hours ago by Victory Formation

[Doc Brown]

28 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

If there’s a Bijan Robinson or Najee Harris type of back available next year at the bottom of RD1 though I wouldn’t be against it..

I wouldn't but I understand why some would.  I believe the last first round RB who led their team in rushing yards to win a Super Bowl with their original team was Adaii in the '06 season.  I know correlation doesn't equal causation but you just lose the value of having a guy on a rookie contract at a premium position if you draft a RB in the first round.

Edited 1 hour ago by Doc Brown

[Stenbar]

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

No doubt the most expensive way of acquiring a player is trading draft assets and then having to play that player top of the market value.  The fact that the Bills didn't draft his replacement in this year's draft made me think Beane would either give him a new contract extension or let him play out his fourth year.  Maybe he was offered something for Cook before the draft but it wasn't anything higher than a day three pick.

 

I really wouldn't know what to do if I was Cook.  I think I'm playing this season no matter what.  On one hand I know that if it's best case scenario in the 2025 season like you laid out then his contract would be even bigger if signed next year with the salary cap going up.  However, you also face the risk of injury or declined production if our offensive line isn't magically healthy throughout the year like they were the last two.  At his age I pry would bet on myself.  As his agent I would advise him to get an extension with $25m or so in guaranteed money.  You're set financially for life. 

If the Bills do not sign him this year it is a going to cost a heck of a lot more to sign him as the season ends and into the offseason. So if your the Bills you sign him now to an extension, if you do not sign him you are either Franchising him next year or you are losing or letting him walk after this year. If he hits 1500 yards and North of 12 TDS he will get over 20 M easy next yr IMO. It is always cheaper to sign the player early. 

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I agree with most of this but if I was to n Cook’s shoes, I would do the same thing. This is the most leverage he will ever have in his entire career. Playing on a one year contract is awful for any player but especially a rb.  If he plays on a one year deal he: risks suffering a major injury; gets less touches that hurts his value, and the Bills run him into the ground (I don’t see that).

 

every other good player for his Bills draft class has gotten a new deal. And I’d argue Cook has the best resume out of all of them. His brother’s career basically ended at 27.  
 

I get how it is tough to pay rb. But Cook has gotten better every year. He was the BEST player in the championship game and we might have won if he touched the ball more. This is going to be a story on Hard knocks. 

I’d love to see a real breakdown of this. Is Johnson better? Sure but I think this has been way overstated how bad Cook is. 

 

 

This isn't the most leverage he'll ever have. He'll have more next year when they'll have to tag him or let him go.

 

It might be the time that Cook himself has the most on the line, as an injury really could ruin his career. Which is the reason he should maybe have accepted less but gotten a contract with some injury guarantees.

 

I've got nothing against him doing all this. I question - as many have - whether this is the best move he could make to further his own interests.

 

A lot of the reason those players in that same draft class you mentioned got those early deals is that they gave the team good value to do so. Cook did not. If he'd accepted a deal at around $10 to $11M, Cook would also likely already have a deal. Can't say for sure, but that's the way it seems. Generally if you want a deal early, you have to give something up to get it.

[Doc Brown]

25 minutes ago, Stenbar said:

If the Bills do not sign him this year it is a going to cost a heck of a lot more to sign him as the season ends and into the offseason. So if your the Bills you sign him now to an extension, if you do not sign him you are either Franchising him next year or you are losing or letting him walk after this year. If he hits 1500 yards and North of 12 TDS he will get over 20 M easy next yr IMO. It is always cheaper to sign the player early. 

It's cheaper but usually a disaster extending a RB before the last year of his rookie contract (Gurley, Dalvin Cook, David Johnson, Zeek, Chubb).   I'm having a hard time where one did work out off the top of my head at least within the last six to eight years.  McCaffrey you could argue was the best contract extension on his rookie deal but it was only a good deal for the 49ers (not the Panthers).

 

Edit:  I forgot about Derrick Henry.  Well worth the money for the Titans.

Edited 30 minutes ago by Doc Brown