Speed: I do the math here

[oldmanfan]

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:15 PM, mrags said:

Here. This is much easier to show the difference of speed. Almost the exact times we’re talking about from a 4.6 to a 4.3. It’s actually a lot. 3yrds is almost 10ft. That’s a lot when your talking about separation on a CB. 
 

 

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I checked my math twice thanks.

[mrags]

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:25 PM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

A lot goes into that, no? Seeing the open man is something of a challenge for farmer Josh sometimes I've seen it live, personally.

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I mean I think I’ve only missed 8 games Josh live at home in his career. Pretty sure I’ve seen him too. 

 

I believe he underthrows some guys sometimes.  Maybe because he’s holding back a bit thinking he’s going to overthrow his WR because he doesn’t believe they have the speed to jist go get it. 

[oldmanfan]

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:24 PM, OldTimer1960 said:

That’s true, but why do you suppose he didn’t run the 40 again at his pro day?  I think it’s safe to assume that he knew his 4.61 was about the best he can do.  Similarly, he did not do the 3-cone and 20 yard shuttle agility drills at all - very likely he knew these would not be his strengths.

 

That doesn’t mean that he can’t succeed in the league, but it might well cap his ceiling.

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Someone indicated above he had the best gauntlet drill time and second best top speed.  Again that’s an N of 1.  But it suggests speed in other testing modalities.

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:29 PM, mrags said:

I mean I think I’ve only missed 8 games Josh live at home in his career. Pretty sure I’ve seen him too. 

 

I believe he underthrows some guys sometimes.  Maybe because he’s holding back a bit thinking he’s going to overthrow his WR because he doesn’t believe they have the speed to jist go get it. 

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How many total passes of over 40 yards were thrown by Josh last year?  Or in the league?  I can’t find that data.

[mrags]

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:29 PM, oldmanfan said:

I checked my math twice thanks.

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Yeah I’m sure you did. That’s why I provided a picture for your eyes to actually see the difference. And not imagine things in your head. 
 

fwiw, I bet I found that pic, condensed it so that I could post to this site, and replied to you. As well as pissed 14 other people off in 6 other threads in the time it took you to do all that math and post the original OP 

[Alphadawg7]

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:01 PM, KDIGGZ said:

I see a lot of numbers trying to justify him being slow. It is what it is. He's slow. Hopefully he can make it up elsewhere (jump balls, catch radius, etc).

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4.51 isn’t slow.  Thats what he ran on his pro day.

 

 

[mrags]

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:32 PM, oldmanfan said:

Someone indicated above he had the best gauntlet drill time and second best top speed.  Again that’s an N of 1.  But it suggests speed in other testing modalities.

How many total passes of over 40 yards were thrown by Josh last year?  Or in the league?  I can’t find that data.

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I don’t know. Probably not a lot because his coach doesn’t believe in a verticle passing game and his WRs were slow AF 

[OldTimer1960]

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:32 PM, oldmanfan said:

Someone indicated above he had the best gauntlet drill time and second best top speed.  Again that’s an N of 1.  But it suggests speed in other testing modalities.

How many total passes of over 40 yards were thrown by Josh last year?  Or in the league?  I can’t find that data.

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I’m not really arguing against your original point, just wanted to add that quickness, route running skill and acceleration are as important or more so as speed.

 

The gauntlet speed point is questionable in my mind - the gauntlet is not a speed competition.  Players aren’t competing to see who can run it fastest.  It IS encouraging that he could ripen it fast and show good hands.

[K D]

I think a lot of people are getting upset that people don't like how slow he is. It's fine, he was successful while being slow in college and he will probably be an ok player in the NFL. The point is he had a glaring weakness vs others still available at the time he was drafted. If he was drafted in round 3 this wouldn't even be a discussion, we would be happy with the pick (most of us).

 

We passed on Worthy who has speed you need to plan for, McConkey who has the speed AND route running, Leggette who has the speed AND size, and AD Mitchell who has every single tool available and might have a bad attitude but please tell me which superstar WR is pleasant. Coleman might end up being an upgrade over Gabe but there were other options available so it's a head scratcher.

[Victory Formation]

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:19 PM, Nextmanup said:

It doesn't work like that, Dr. Einstein.

 

You are suggesting 40 times are straight up irrelevant in NFL football.

They are not.  

 

 

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Speed isn’t the only means to getting open.

[K D]

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:36 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

4.51 isn’t slow.  Thats what he ran on his pro day.

 

 

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Supposedly hand timed by a scout. I trust the combine electronic system which has all players on a level playing field.

[oldmanfan]

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:35 PM, mrags said:

Yeah I’m sure you did. That’s why I provided a picture for your eyes to actually see the difference. And not imagine things in your head. 
 

fwiw, I bet I found that pic, condensed it so that I could post to this site, and replied to you. As well as pissed 14 other people off in 6 other threads in the time it took you to do all that math and post the original OP 

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God forbid we look at actual data

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:37 PM, OldTimer1960 said:

I’m not really arguing against your original point, just wanted to add that quickness, route running skill and acceleration are as important or more so as speed.

 

The gauntlet speed point is questionable in my mind - the gauntlet is not a speed competition.  Players aren’t competing to see who can run it fastest.  It IS encouraging that he could ripen it fast and show good hands.

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I agree with your points

[mrags]

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:41 PM, oldmanfan said:

God forbid we look at actual data

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Or see it with our own eyes 

 

you said it yourself. 3 yards. And then said it didnt sound like it was that much. That’s almost 10 freaking feet. That’s 1.5 people you’re talking about. I’d say that’s a huge difference 

[strive_for_five_guy]

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:04 PM, oldmanfan said:

Another thing scientists (I am one) is you never base conclusions on a sample size of 1.  One 40 yard run at the combine is not enough data to conclude anything.

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Agreed.  Xavier Worthy just got lucky.  It’s still inconclusive whether he is faster than me 😃

Edited April 27, 2024 by strive_for_five_guy

[GoBills808]

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:42 PM, mrags said:

Or see it with our own eyes 

 

you said it yourself. 3 yards. And then said it didnt sound like it was that much. That’s almost 10 freaking feet. That’s 1.5 people you’re talking about. I’d say that’s a huge difference 

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If you need to be a 'scientist' to understand the difference between a 4.2 guy vs 4.6 you probably want to stick to doing simple math

[kitchen sink]

https://www.on3.com/pro/news/keon-coleman-runs-insane-speed-during-gauntlet-drill-fastest-of-group/

[K D]

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:46 PM, kitchen sink said:

https://www.on3.com/pro/news/keon-coleman-runs-insane-speed-during-gauntlet-drill-fastest-of-group/

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He sprinted on a drill when nobody else did. You aren't supposed to do that. If you watch the combine you can clearly see him run out of bounds when you are supposed to stay in and show you can tip toe down the sidelines.

[oldmanfan]

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:42 PM, mrags said:

Or see it with our own eyes 

 

you said it yourself. 3 yards. And then said it didnt sound like it was that much. That’s almost 10 freaking feet. That’s 1.5 people you’re talking about. I’d say that’s a huge difference 

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Here is a more nuanced take.  For the 40 times to be directly relevant on the field both the WR and defender would have to be starting from the same starting point.  CBS don’t unless they play press.  You also would have to factor in any help from a safety over the top.  And so on.

 

I suspect there are relatively few throws in the league in any given year where it is a straight fly pattern on a guy being covered one on one.

 

 

[mrags]

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:45 PM, GoBills808 said:

If you need to be a 'scientist' to understand the difference between a 4.2 guy vs 4.6 you probably want to stick to doing simple math

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Or being a good WR 

[oldmanfan]

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:44 PM, strive_for_five_guy said:

Agreed.  Xavier Worthy just got lucky.  It’s still inconclusive whether he is faster than me 😃

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Yes, he’s fast.  No one is arguing that.  What if he ran another and it was 4.3.  Would that change your opinion?

[mrags]

  On 4/27/2024 at 9:48 PM, oldmanfan said:

Here is a more nuanced take.  For the 40 times to be directly relevant on the field both the WR and defender would have to be starting from the same starting point.  CBS don’t unless they play press.  You also would have to factor in any help from a safety over the top.  And so on.

 

I suspect there are relatively few throws in the league in any given year where it is a straight fly pattern on a guy being covered one on one.

 

 

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Cool. Doesn’t take away from the fact that 4.6 is 10+ feet faster than 4.4 in a 40 yard distance. Which means a lot