Beane Discusses Draft Strategy w/ Pat McAfee

[Yantha]

Beane said he'd draft WR every round....

 

[Captain Hindsight]

On 3/26/2024 at 2:35 PM, SoonerBillsFan said:

We all knew the team of McBeane was going defense.  

People need to understand that the number of people that can run routes and catch the football is an incredible amount compared to people the can block or set the edge effectively. It’s why guys like Marshall Newhouse can be traded for an asset and Bobby Hart will be in 3 different rosters in a season. It’s why Jadevon Clowney, who has been a massive disappointment, keeps getting contracts. Those guys are much harder to find. Teams should invest high resources into those guys
 

By the same token, guys like Gabe Davis (4th round) Shakir (5th Round) Diggs (5th round) can be effective players despite their draft number. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

Im not even upset right now.  I tried to bury the hatchet literally 5 posts with you who when I said Fair and you just continued plugging away and you’re still plugging away. Give it up.  You must have missed the part where I said I don’t know the board anymore than you do. People discussed DeJean and your ripped it down with your tired business economics tirade that you plug into every discussion that doesn’t involve a premium position. That’s not moving a discussion forward that’s rehashing your points to get people to agree with you. Hence the you must have been pissed about the Kincaid pick last year. 
 

For someone who says I lecture too much you sure do much of the same 

 

I wasn't aware there was a hatchet to bury with you.   Obviously you were grudging and I wasn't aware of it.

 

And I never said you lecture too much I just said your thoughts in the thread weren't well formed(lacked depth) while you were simultaneously telling people you were teaching them.

 

And the reality is that player compensation matters with regard to where players are drafted.  It's the opposite of "tired".   It's only becoming more important and less teams are just throwing away 1st round picks at positions like RB or S or off-ball LB than ever before.    

 

As for the Kincaid pick..........I liked it and said so then.    Because it's a move to directly support their elite-elite level QB with a passing game playmaker.   Like I said, being 9th-11th in passing yards ain't gonna' cut it.  The #1 priority of any organization that has a franchise QB should be to maximize that player's ability to perform to his ceiling.   That's mission statement level.  QB means everything.   A lot of people on here are willing to compromise their QB in the name of "roster balance".   Not me.

 

Compromising for the most potentially impactful non-premium position(TE) in that respect is entirely different than drafting a safety in round 1.   Cooper Dejean in the secondary couldn't be further from directly making Josh Allen more effective.   Perfect example, thank you.

 

Now would I have approved of picking a TE in round 1 in 2021?   Probably not.   But they passed on stocking their WR room in the 2021 and 2022 drafts so they were playing catch up.   And then Kincaid was the best passing weapon left when Beane traded up.    They done f#cked up and needed to get back in the arms race.   Like in 2020 when they had to trade for Diggs and his contract because they passed on talented WR in the 2019 draft.   I approved of that too even though I was still miffed about the Cody Ford over WR fiasco. 

 

 

Edited March 28 by BADOLBILZ

[gonzo1105]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I wasn't aware there was a hatchet to bury with you.   Obviously you were grudging and I wasn't aware of it.

 

And I never said you lecture too much I just said your thoughts in the thread weren't well formed(lacked depth) while you were simultaneously telling people you were teaching them.

 

And the reality is that player compensation matters with regard to where players are drafted.  It's the opposite of "tired".   It's only becoming more important and less teams are just throwing away 1st round picks at positions like RB or S or off-ball LB than ever before.    

 

As for the Kincaid pick..........I liked it and said so then.    Because it's a move to directly support their elite-elite level QB with a passing game playmaker.   Like I said, being 9th-11th in passing yards ain't gonna' cut it.  The #1 priority of any organization that has a franchise QB should be to maximize that player's ability to perform to his ceiling.   That's mission statement level.  QB means everything.   A lot of people on here are willing to compromise their QB in the name of "roster balance".   Not me.

 

Compromising for the most potentially impactful non-premium position(TE) in that respect is entirely different than drafting a safety in round 1.   Cooper Dejean in the secondary couldn't be further from directly making Josh Allen more effective.   Perfect example, thank you.

 

Now would I have approved of picking a TE in round 1 in 2021?   Probably not.   But they passed on stocking their WR room in the 2021 and 2022 drafts so they were playing catch up.   And then Kincaid was the best passing weapon left when Beane traded up.    They done f#cked up and need to get back in the arms race.   Like in 2020 when they had to trade for Diggs and his contract because they passed on talented WR in the 2019 draft.   I approved of that too even though I was still miffed about the Cody Ford over WR fiasco. 

Im literally not even reading your stuff anymore man. You’re just typing to type when it comes to me.  I’ve literally told you to give up. I’ve checked out on you. You’re now coming off like an ex gf who can’t let go and continues to blow up my phone. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, 3rdand12 said:

Because Bills have no third, i might think they maneuver to gain better draft spots. But not in the first, unless ....

Bills have a volume of picks later than 3.

More than they can sign i believe ?

 

Yeah, that is why I think a move up in the first would be a smaller type move up than a significant move.  

 

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Beane make a small move back if a guy isn't there at 28 he covets and try and recoup a 3rd and take a WR on the move back because once you get past the top 4 guys, the next 7 WR's kind of get muddled all together and who ranks where is in the eye of the beholder.  So they could move back and still get a guy they really want potentially.  

[BADOLBILZ]

26 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Im literally not even reading your stuff anymore man. You’re just typing to type when it comes to me.  I’ve literally told you to give up. I’ve checked out on you. You’re now coming off like an ex gf who can’t let go and continues to blow up my phone. 

 

 

Oh man,  I just noticed you'd been following my postings around on the sly just to be critical.   That's where you were grudging!  Big @Thurman#1 fan are you?  He's a bright one, that guy.

 

No problem,   I will put you in my easily-outraged-idiots box ol' timer.   That will free you up to post your nonsense in peace.  

[gonzo1105]

11 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Oh man,  I just noticed you'd been following my postings around on the sly just to be critical.   That's where you were grudging!  Big @Thurman#1 fan are you?  He's a bright one, that guy.

 

No problem,   I will put you in my easily-outraged-idiots box ol' timer.   That will free you up to post your nonsense in peace.  

Still keep typing to me like a true loser who’s butt hurt I never loved him lol

[Alphadawg7]

13 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

OK so:

 

You know, if you spent less time trying to challenge me all the time like you are trying to get some gotcha moment that never comes, we could probably have some pretty good football conversations and think you would find we have a lot of the same opinions...lol.  But I will play along...

 

13 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

1) What do you EXPECT him to achieve in the next 2 seasons?

 

What do I expect for Shakir his next 2 years:  Fair question.  To be clear, I expect him to remain in Buffalo both those years.  

 

First year (this upcoming season) Diggs will again lead the team in targets (barring injuries).  Beyond Diggs, we have a talented roster that saw 3 first/second year players break out last year in Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook (both as receiver and runner).  All 3 have earned roles in the offense, plus we just added Samuel on a 3 year deal and about to add another rookie likely early in the draft.  That means Diggs is going to get his targets and there are a lot of mouths to feed after him this season.  So I don't think anyone outside of Diggs will reach 1000 yards this season and if I had to give Shakir a range, I think 700-900 yards is where I gauge based on the fact there are a lot of mouths to feed.  

 

Year 2 - This is an interesting scenario because this is when Diggs future actually becomes more of a question.  Diggs will be 31 and how he does this season will definitely impact the odds he is here again or would the Bills move on when the hit to do so is more palatable.  If Diggs has a stellar 2024 and returns, then you got to think he likely is the top dawg again on the targets pecking order and we see a similar situation where we spread the ball around behind Diggs.  So 700-900 yards is probably another logical range in that case for Shakir.  

 

However, if Bills move on from Diggs after this next year, then you got a 2nd year WR (the rookie we draft this year) who you are looking at to take over Diggs role, but also won't necessarily command the level of targets a player of Diggs caliber and experience does.  In that situation, then I think its possible guys like Shakir and Kincaid will see an uptick in targets and more than 1 player getting 1000 yards becomes possible and would bump Shakirs range to probably 850-1000 yards knowing Kincaid is still going to likely remain a big part of the offense too.  

 

13 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

2) What do you think his ceiling is?

 

To be honest, I fully believe he could be 1000+ yard WR on a lot of other teams this next year where he could see the targets to do so.  And that is not a stretch, he put up 611 yards on just 39 targets here last year.  

 

Lets compare that to our own Diggs last year.  Diggs got 107 targets, so what would Shakirs season look like with 107 targets last year:

Diggs - 107 targets, 1183 yards, 8 TD's

Shakir - 107 targets, 1676 yards, 5 TD's

 

Now, I am not stupid, I realize he benefits having a Diggs on the other side of the field, so I am not going to proclaim he would put up 1600+ yards as the top WR1 on a team drawing the best defender.  I mean its not impossible, but also not realistic.  

 

But I do think he can be a very good second WR on a team where he gets the targets and they move him around inside and out.  

 

13 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

You are talking about what you anticipated of him in the past tense.   There WERE multiple people who insisted he could become as good as Stef Diggs.  Anytime a WR projected to go round 2 goes in round 5 there are a ton of people who will predict greatness for that player.

 

I honestly didn't see anyone saying he could be as good as Stef Diggs, at least not Stef at his best who was a top 5 WR at his best.  But Shakir was probably our best WR down the stretch and in the postseason for this team last year.  

 

That being said, I think anyone who proclaims a young player will be as good as one of the best is always premature, just like when someone thinks someone can't be one of the best because they were not an early draft pick is premature and foolish.  

 

13 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I'm just trying to clarify so that when his small sample size production turns into Cooper Kupp 2021 I can give you credit.    

 

Look, I get its a small sample size, but I was on Shakir long before the sample size.  So for me, the sample size is proving what I already believed he can do.  And the guy works hard at his craft training with Moulds in the offseason.  He has the drive to get there, that plays a big part for me too.  I told everyone all training camp not to sleep on Shakir and most mocked and doubted that until Knox injury opened up more opportunities for him to prove what he can do and people finally started to see what I had already seen.  

 

13 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

For example,  when I promoted the Bills selecting him in round 1 of the 2014 draft I predicted Aaron Donald could get 10 sacks as a rookie, which was a crazy high bar for a rookie DT.  He got 9.  He fell short.......but also I didn't exactly predict that he WOULD get that.  I predicted he "could" get that.   That's why I don't use it as a key data point with that opinion.  

 

So now is your chance, shoot your shot on Khalil.

 

Honestly, I have been open about my confidence in Shakir many times on this board, including threads I have started on him.  I don't have a time machine, can't tell you for sure how his career plays out, but I do know I believe he has a bright future and I think will be a good player for us for at least the next 2 years.   I think we have an exciting young core of weapons for Allens prime between whatever rookie we take early this year, Shakir, Kincaid and Cook.

 

 

Edited March 28 by Alphadawg7

[Einstein's Dog]

10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah, that is why I think a move up in the first would be a smaller type move up than a significant move.  

 

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Beane make a small move back if a guy isn't there at 28 he covets and try and recoup a 3rd and take a WR on the move back because once you get past the top 4 guys, the next 7 WR's kind of get muddled all together and who ranks where is in the eye of the beholder.  So they could move back and still get a guy they really want potentially.  

It would make sense to me in a scenario where X Legette/K Coleman/T Franklin and McConkey are all there, that the Bills move back.  They could then draft one of them a little later and have better draft spots for DL + S (or BPA) later on.

[Alphadawg7]

On 3/27/2024 at 7:46 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

In your scenario, that's easy - you pick the edge. Because (without getting too bogged down in the hypothetical grading system) a difference of half a point is probably at least one tier difference on the draft board. There it isn't about whether the drop off is bigger it is just about taking the guy who is clearly the best player at a premium position. 

 

The difficult scenario is if it is closer and the other way around.... so let's say your highest graded remaining player is a wide receiver, at 8.9 and the next best is an edge at 8.7 and the drop off at edge is down to your 7.9 example but you have 6 receivers between 8.6 and 8.0 that is where it gets tricky. But Beane also has to weigh up how likely is he to then be able to get any of his 6 other closely graded receivers? Because it is okay in theory saying "the drop off is bigger at edge" but you have to really look at the drop off between the guys there at #28 and what is likely to be there at #60. If you think the likelihood is all six of the receivers in between are gone the next time you get on the clock then the drop off being less is pretty irrelevant. 

 

The only scenario in which you take a guy other than receiver is if the guy you have BPA sticking out on the board is higher tier of prospect (not just 0.1 or 0.2 difference) and is at a premium position. 

 

I agree with you, I was just keeping the numbers and scenario simple so it would be clear.  But I have brought this up in other posts when going into more detail as well. And Beane has openly discussed this as well as what goes into his consideration when drafting too.

[3rdand12]

18 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I don’t think Rapp or Edwards is stopping McBeane from taking a safety they like high in the draft and DeJean checks all the boxes on what they look for in a DB - versatile, smart, playmaker.  

I will will trust your judgement. And agree in this case as well !

But i have my druthers in this draft . if i get mines, You can have yours. deal 🙂

[3rdand12]

18 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

Im not for or against DeJean per se. I would understand why the Bills took him at 28 for sure if it happens and I do think he’s the only truly elite safety prospect on paper. 
 

I think it’s likely the are going to go WR, DT, or DE. With that said depending on how the board falls I can see DeJean or a Tackle being the pick if things go sideways for them as it pertains to the first 3 needs 

Thank you.

if he is the value at 28 ? I am sure he will be put to good use and quickly.

 Feel  a future starter safety could come a bit later with some bebopping around in the trading room.

Hoping they pick my choices ! , as we all do. But 3 starters from the  1-3 picks is not bad what ever position they play

[Chandler#81]

This just in: Bills repeat as Leagues best training & equipment staff.

Congrats!

 

[3rdand12]

17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah, that is why I think a move up in the first would be a smaller type move up than a significant move.  

 

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Beane make a small move back if a guy isn't there at 28 he covets and try and recoup a 3rd and take a WR on the move back because once you get past the top 4 guys, the next 7 WR's kind of get muddled all together and who ranks where is in the eye of the beholder.  So they could move back and still get a guy they really want potentially.  

any chance to gain more leverage in the draft , if they find a partner. Yep
 As long as they get 2 or 3 starters (rotational with upside) I am good. 

 But yea get the Right WR for Josh and Brady. Muddled hopefully means different skill sets Bills can pick from for fit

Should be fun. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[3rdand12]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I agree with you, I was just keeping the numbers and scenario simple so it would be clear.  But I have brought this up in other posts when going into more detail as well. And Beane has openly discussed this as well as what goes into his consideration when drafting too.

Gunner's point  I have to repeat here

 

"The only scenario in which you take a guy other than receiver is if the guy you have BPA sticking out on the board is higher tier of prospect (not just 0.1 or 0.2 difference) and is at a premium position. "

Gunner's quote for ref

 I hope you agree Alpha ?

[Alphadawg7]

16 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

Gunner's point  I have to repeat here

 

"The only scenario in which you take a guy other than receiver is if the guy you have BPA sticking out on the board is higher tier of prospect (not just 0.1 or 0.2 difference) and is at a premium position. "

Gunner's quote for ref

 I hope you agree Alpha ?

Yeah I do agree and agreed with Gunners post.  As I mentioned to him, my example was just meant to be simple to illustrate the point, but definitely feel this logic goes into the decision making as well and Beane has said so too multiple times  

[Alphadawg7]

37 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

any chance to gain more leverage in the draft , if they find a partner. Yep
 As long as they get 2 or 3 starters (rotational with upside) I am good. 

 But yea get the Right WR for Josh and Brady. Muddled hopefully means different skill sets Bills can pick from for fit

Should be fun. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah when I say muddled I mean different skill sets and styles.  Outside the top 4 the next 6-7 guys vary greatly by the eye of the beholder and by what traits people like more and all have cases for where they should rank amongst them.  

[BADOLBILZ]

18 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You know, if you spent less time trying to challenge me all the time like you are trying to get some gotcha moment that never comes, we could probably have some pretty good football conversations and think you would find we have a lot of the same opinions...lol.  But I will play along...

 

 

What do I expect for Shakir his next 2 years:  Fair question.  To be clear, I expect him to remain in Buffalo both those years.  

 

First year (this upcoming season) Diggs will again lead the team in targets (barring injuries).  Beyond Diggs, we have a talented roster that saw 3 first/second year players break out last year in Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook (both as receiver and runner).  All 3 have earned roles in the offense, plus we just added Samuel on a 3 year deal and about to add another rookie likely early in the draft.  That means Diggs is going to get his targets and there are a lot of mouths to feed after him this season.  So I don't think anyone outside of Diggs will reach 1000 yards this season and if I had to give Shakir a range, I think 700-900 yards is where I gauge based on the fact there are a lot of mouths to feed.  

 

Year 2 - This is an interesting scenario because this is when Diggs future actually becomes more of a question.  Diggs will be 31 and how he does this season will definitely impact the odds he is here again or would the Bills move on when the hit to do so is more palatable.  If Diggs has a stellar 2024 and returns, then you got to think he likely is the top dawg again on the targets pecking order and we see a similar situation where we spread the ball around behind Diggs.  So 700-900 yards is probably another logical range in that case for Shakir.  

 

However, if Bills move on from Diggs after this next year, then you got a 2nd year WR (the rookie we draft this year) who you are looking at to take over Diggs role, but also won't necessarily command the level of targets a player of Diggs caliber and experience does.  In that situation, then I think its possible guys like Shakir and Kincaid will see an uptick in targets and more than 1 player getting 1000 yards becomes possible and would bump Shakirs range to probably 850-1000 yards knowing Kincaid is still going to likely remain a big part of the offense too.  

 

 

To be honest, I fully believe he could be 1000+ yard WR on a lot of other teams this next year where he could see the targets to do so.  And that is not a stretch, he put up 611 yards on just 39 targets here last year.  

 

Lets compare that to our own Diggs last year.  Diggs got 107 targets, so what would Shakirs season look like with 107 targets last year:

Diggs - 107 targets, 1183 yards, 8 TD's

Shakir - 107 targets, 1676 yards, 5 TD's

 

Now, I am not stupid, I realize he benefits having a Diggs on the other side of the field, so I am not going to proclaim he would put up 1600+ yards as the top WR1 on a team drawing the best defender.  I mean its not impossible, but also not realistic.  

 

But I do think he can be a very good second WR on a team where he gets the targets and they move him around inside and out.  

 

 

I honestly didn't see anyone saying he could be as good as Stef Diggs, at least not Stef at his best who was a top 5 WR at his best.  But Shakir was probably our best WR down the stretch and in the postseason for this team last year.  

 

That being said, I think anyone who proclaims a young player will be as good as one of the best is always premature, just like when someone thinks someone can't be one of the best because they were not an early draft pick is premature and foolish.  

 

 

Look, I get its a small sample size, but I was on Shakir long before the sample size.  So for me, the sample size is proving what I already believed he can do.  And the guy works hard at his craft training with Moulds in the offseason.  He has the drive to get there, that plays a big part for me too.  I told everyone all training camp not to sleep on Shakir and most mocked and doubted that until Knox injury opened up more opportunities for him to prove what he can do and people finally started to see what I had already seen.  

 

 

Honestly, I have been open about my confidence in Shakir many times on this board, including threads I have started on him.  I don't have a time machine, can't tell you for sure how his career plays out, but I do know I believe he has a bright future and I think will be a good player for us for at least the next 2 years.   I think we have an exciting young core of weapons for Allens prime between whatever rookie we take early this year, Shakir, Kincaid and Cook.

 

 

 

 

Ok, thanks for the response.   I read it all.   I don't feel much clearer about your opinion.   Like if you think he's an NFL WR1.   Your guesstimates for him are similar to mine but I am maybe not as impressed by that Cole Beasley level production bar from the slot.  He is a really tough evaluation though because there just aren't any comps I can think of so I don't blame you for not really being able to nail it down either.    

 

I don't think he's a WR1.   I just don't see him playing outside full time and most WR1 do.  The only really dedicated slot guy who fits that profile as WR1 is Kupp and how he wins is pretty unique to Kupp.   Obviously Shakir's gift is as a RAC machine which is awesome but I am just not sure how that projects with A LOT more targets as opposed to how Kupp did it when healthy.     I think the Bills did a great job keeping Shakir's throws short to intermediate last year after misusing him as sort of an inside-outside guy as a rookie.   They used Gabe Davis well as a low target option early in his career too though.

 

  I am excited about his potential but I am glad they added Samuel.   Samuel is a much better option to compete in the slot than the tiring Emmanuel Sanders was as a boundary WR.   Sanders was basically a tomato can they set up for Gabe to knock over.    

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Ok, thanks for the response.   I read it all.   I don't feel much clearer about your opinion.   Like if you think he's an NFL WR1.   Your guesstimates for him are similar to mine but I am maybe not as impressed by that Cole Beasley level production bar from the slot.  He is a really tough evaluation though because there just aren't any comps I can think of so I don't blame you for not really being able to nail it down either.    

 

I don't think he's a WR1.   I just don't see him playing outside full time and most WR1 do.  The only really dedicated slot guy who fits that profile as WR1 is Kupp and how he wins is pretty unique to Kupp.   Obviously Shakir's gift is as a RAC machine which is awesome but I am just not sure how that projects with A LOT more targets as opposed to how Kupp did it when healthy.     I think the Bills did a great job keeping Shakir's throws short to intermediate last year after misusing him as sort of an inside-outside guy as a rookie.   They used Gabe Davis well as a low target option early in his career too though.

 

  I am excited about his potential but I am glad they added Samuel.   Samuel is a much better option to compete in the slot than the tiring Emmanuel Sanders was as a boundary WR.   Sanders was basically a tomato can they set up for Gabe to knock over.    

 

See, now this is what I am talking about...great response...look at us now ha.

 

And I agree with most of this, this is a lot how I feel about him.  I am not going to say he can't be a WR1, I mean look at someone like Kupp.  No one expected him to emerge into what he is until he actually did a couple seasons ago.  

 

But I think its more likely he establishes himself as top end second WR on a team at some point.  I honestly don't know if he gets that chance in Buffalo, or anyone for that matter, the way Allen and the Bills like to spread the ball around outside Diggs with so many mouths to feed here in Shakir, Kincaid, Samuel and of course what rookie we draft and even Cook out of the backfield.  

 

However, once Diggs is done here (and could be as early as next year depending on how Diggs plays this season) I can see him really being the WR2 opposite whatever Rookie we take in this draft to be the heir to Diggs and Samuel playing out of the slot.  And I do think Shakir has the potential to be an excellent compliment to a WR1 here in the post Diggs era.  

 

Kupp is actually a very good comparison to him, not saying he will reach his level of success, but the type of WR they are.  And it is no surprise either because Shakir studies Kupp and patterns his game after Kupp.  

 

And spot on about about Sanders, agree with everything you said there and about Samuel as well.  

 

Kudos...

[Thurman#1]

On 3/27/2024 at 3:54 AM, Logic said:

I expect one of three outcomes. Which one happens will depend on who is on the board when the Bills pick.

1. A receiver they really like begins to fall, and they make a small move up to get him. Think Brian Thomas Jr.
2. They draft a non-WR player at 28 (edge or safety likely), then use day 3 pick(s) to move up higher in the 2nd round and draft a WR.
3. They trade down from 28 into the 2nd round and add a 3rd round pick (Beane was expecting one, and I bet he wants to have one). They then use their two 2nd round picks on a WR and a defensive player.

One thing is for sure: Even WITH the player exodus and lean free agency period, they won't be using all 11 picks. There's just no way. Expect movement up and down the board.

 

 

 

This totally makes sense, though I'd add in a 10 - 20% chance that he likes someone other than Brian Thomas enough to wait till #28 and have that guy as his best player there but not enough better to feel he needs to trade up, maybe Adonai Mitchell or Troy Franklin, someone like that.

 

I think your three scenarios are all more likely, though.

Edited March 29 by Thurman#1