GASabresIUFan Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 (edited) Group 1 (36) - Players certain or almost certain to return Offense (16) QB - Allen, Trubisky - (signed 3/6 - 2 years $5.25 million) RB - Cook, Johnson (re-signed 3/14) WR - Diggs, Shakir, Hollins (signed 3/13) TE - Knox, Kincaid & Morris (re-signed 1yr 985k) OT - Brown, Dawkins, Van Demark, OG - Torrence, Edwards (Re-signed 2yrs $6million) C - McGovern Defense (17) DL - Rousseau, Miller, Oliver, Jonathan, Epenesa & Jones (both re-signed for 2 years) LB - Milano, Benard, Williams, Spector, Morrow (signed 3/12) CB - Benford, Douglas, Elam, Johnson & Lewis (re-signs 2 yrs 4 million on 3/11) S - Rapp - reports have him re-signing (3 yrs $14.5) Specialist (3) - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS), (P) Haack (re-signed on 3/6) Group 2 (4) - Players under contract likely to return, but could also end up as cap casualties if K's not restructured OL - Morse, Bates (traded to Chicago); Morse release 3/6 (signs with Jax) S - Poyer - Poyer released 3/6 P - Martin Group 3 (5) - Returning Developmental players WR- Shorter OL - Anderson, Doyle DL - Ankou, Cline Group 4 (6) - Potential (likely?) cap casualties RB - Hines Hines to be released (3/3) FB - Gilliam WR - Harty - Harty released 3/6 CB - Neal, White - Neal released 3/6, White released with a 6/1 designation S - Hamlin Group 5 (13) - Futures/Reserve players QB - Buechele WR - Isabella, Hamler, Shavers, Thompson RB - Evans TE - McKitty, Davidson OL - Gouriage, Jarvis CB - Ingram, Brown S - Williamson Assuming all of the players in groups 1-3 return, that's 35 of 53 roster spots already spoken for. Admittedly the group 3 players could all end up on the practice squad. Except for Hamlin, all the Group 4 players may return, but it will be at lower cap figures than they currently possess. Hamlin's cap figure is low (1.05 with a 40k dead cap) it's just a question of whether he can earn a job on the 53-man roster. Right now I don't see any of the Group 5 players making the team, but that's what camp is for. Group 6 (11) - FAs who could be re-signed (or who people here may want re-sign). (I only have an interest in Jones, Epenesa, Ty Johnson and Edwards) DT - Joseph, Jones - re-signed (2 years 16 million) Edge Epenesa - re-signed (2 years up to $20 million) - Floyd, Signed with 49ers RB - Johnson (re-signed 3/14) S - Rapp - reports have him re-signing (3 yrs $14.5) OL - Edwards - Re-signed (2 years $6 million) TE - Morris - Re-signed (1 yr 985K) CB -Jackson, Lewis - re-signed 3/11 (2 years 4 million) LB -Dodson Group 7 (12) - Other FAs DL - Phillips, Settle, Ford, Lawson QB - K Allen RB - Murray, Harris, Fournette WR - Sherfield, Davis (signs with Jax) LB - Matakevich, Klein Group 8 - FA's signed P - Haack (signed 3/6) QB - Trubisky (signed 3/6) LB - Morrow (signed 3/12) WR - Hollins (signed 3/13) Edited March 14 by GASabresIUFan 2 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFan Posted February 29 Author Share Posted February 29 The nice thing about this exercise is that it shows visually where the depth is on the roster and where the needs are. We need 1 backup QB, 2 backup RB, 2-4 WRs, as many as 5 D Linemen, up to 4 safeties, and maybe a depth CB and depth LB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gobillsatthebeach Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 No safeties in group 1? Hamlin is on a rookie contract Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Success Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 9 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said: The nice thing about this exercise is that it shows visually where the depth is on the roster and where the needs are. We need 1 backup QB, 2 backup RB, 2-4 WRs, as many as 5 D Linemen, up to 4 safeties, and maybe a depth CB and depth LB. Man, that sounds like a lot of work for Beane. I have no idea what to expect this season. I thought we had our best team in decades heading into '23, but this one seems like it could be a re-set. Which would be tough after the way the season ended. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanForever19 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 10 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said: Group 1 (25) - Players certain or almost certain to return Offense (11) QB - Allen RB - Cook WR - Diggs, Shakir TE - Knox, Kincaid OL - Brown, Dawkins, Torrence, McGovern, and Van Demark Defense (12) DL - Rousseau, Miller, Oliver, Jonathan LB - Milano, Benard, Williams, Spector CB - Benford, Douglas, Elam, Johnson Specialist (2) - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS) Group 2 (5) - Players under contract likely to return, but could also end up as cap casualties if K's not restructured OL - Morse, Bates, S - Poyer P - Martin Group 3 (5) - Returning Developmental players WR- Shorter OL - Anderson, Doyle DL - Ankou, Cline Group 4 (6) - Potential (likely?) cap casualties RB - Hines FB - Gilliam WR - Harty CB - Neal, White S - Hamlin Group 5 (13) - Futures/Reserve players QB - Buechele WR - Isabella, Hamler, Shavers, Thompson RB - Evans TE - McKitty, Davidson OL - Gouriage, Jarvis CB - Ingram, Brown S - Williamson Assuming all of the players in groups 1-3 return, that's 35 of 53 roster spots already spoken for. Admittedly the group 3 players could all end up on the practice squad. Except for Hamlin, all the Group 4 players may return, but it will be at lower cap figures than they currently possess. Hamlin's cap figure is low (1.05 with a 40k dead cap) it's just a question of whether he can earn a job on the 53-man roster. Right now I don't see any of the Group 5 players making the team, but that's what camp is for. Group 6 (10) - FAs who could be re-signed (or who people here may want re-signed). (I only have an interest in Jones, Epenesa, Ty Johnson and Edwards) DT - Jones, Joseph Edge - Epenesa, Floyd RB - Johnson S - Rapp OL - Edwards TE - Morris CB - Lewis LB -Dodson Group 7 (11) - Other FAs DL - Phillips, Settle, Ford, Lawson QB - K Allen RB - Murray, Harris, Fournette WR - Sherfield LB - Matakevich, Klein Before listening to Beane's press conference at the Combine, I'd have agreed that Douglas belonged on the "certain to almost certain" list. However, hearing his reply to the question of him being extended at the end of his presser - I no longer think that's the case. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFan Posted March 1 Author Share Posted March 1 1 hour ago, gobillsatthebeach said: No safeties in group 1? Hamlin is on a rookie contract You'd think so, but after looking at his snap counts on defense and special teams and his only 40K dead cap if released, I concluded that he could lose his job very easily to someone else. He played only 17 snaps on defense all last season (1.59%). The only full-time player who played less on defense was Matakevich at 16 snaps. However, Matakevich played 343 snaps on special teams (80%) to Hamlin's 94 (22%). Matakevich isn't likely to return this coming season. If he isn't, I don't see why Hamlin would. This would be a very sad ending in Buffalo for a player who was developing nicely before his near-death experience. I truly hope he continues to work his way back, but if he doesn't make the team, I would hope the Bills add him to the organization in some capacity. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFan Posted March 1 Author Share Posted March 1 (edited) 1 hour ago, Success said: Man, that sounds like a lot of work for Beane. Yep, and that's why the draft and not wasting any cap on bad players (Harty, Sherfield etc...) is so important this off-season if the Bills are going to contend. The good news is this is a deep draft at safety and WR, two areas where we desperately need cheap and talented players. We currently have 10 draft picks. I estimate that Beane is going to have to sign 12-14 FAs to complete his roster without a huge amount of cap to work with. The good news is that he probably only needs 2-3 of them to be starters. My guess is one starter at DT, one safety, and one DE or Edge player. If Miller has a good camp, then Beane may only need a DT and Safety to start from his FAs. I'm expecting (hoping?) that Davis' replacement comes from the draft. Edited March 1 by GASabresIUFan 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Good thing We got 10 draft picks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoonerBillsFan Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 18 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said: Group 1 (25) - Players certain or almost certain to return Offense (11) QB - Allen RB - Cook WR - Diggs, Shakir TE - Knox, Kincaid OL - Brown, Dawkins, Torrence, McGovern, and Van Demark Defense (12) DL - Rousseau, Miller, Oliver, Jonathan LB - Milano, Benard, Williams, Spector CB - Benford, Douglas, Elam, Johnson Specialist (2) - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS) Group 2 (5) - Players under contract likely to return, but could also end up as cap casualties if K's not restructured OL - Morse, Bates, S - Poyer P - Martin Group 3 (5) - Returning Developmental players WR- Shorter OL - Anderson, Doyle DL - Ankou, Cline Group 4 (6) - Potential (likely?) cap casualties RB - Hines FB - Gilliam WR - Harty CB - Neal, White S - Hamlin Group 5 (13) - Futures/Reserve players QB - Buechele WR - Isabella, Hamler, Shavers, Thompson RB - Evans TE - McKitty, Davidson OL - Gouriage, Jarvis CB - Ingram, Brown S - Williamson Assuming all of the players in groups 1-3 return, that's 35 of 53 roster spots already spoken for. Admittedly the group 3 players could all end up on the practice squad. Except for Hamlin, all the Group 4 players may return, but it will be at lower cap figures than they currently possess. Hamlin's cap figure is low (1.05 with a 40k dead cap) it's just a question of whether he can earn a job on the 53-man roster. Right now I don't see any of the Group 5 players making the team, but that's what camp is for. Group 6 (10) - FAs who could be re-signed (or who people here may want re-signed). (I only have an interest in Jones, Epenesa, Ty Johnson and Edwards) DT - Jones, Joseph Edge - Epenesa, Floyd RB - Johnson S - Rapp OL - Edwards TE - Morris CB - Lewis LB -Dodson Group 7 (11) - Other FAs DL - Phillips, Settle, Ford, Lawson QB - K Allen RB - Murray, Harris, Fournette WR - Sherfield LB - Matakevich, Klein I don't really want any of the last group back. They haven't showed a ton, and are older or disappeared during the late season / Playoffs. Quit trying to "run it back" already. As Shaw said, we need to shake up the roster and infuse with new talent. Change approaches somewhat in schemes. What we have been doing isn't good enough to get to the end goal. Infuse this team with younger, and better talent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 I don't see them cutting Gilliam AND Neal. That would mean losing their three best special teamers in one fell swoop and I don't think they are going to do that. I know fans disregard special teams but NFL teams don't. Matakevich is gone and I'm not expecting him back, the question is can they afford both Gilliam and Neal. I suspect not. But their gunner play took a noticeable drop off last year with no Taiwan Jones so that possibly makes Neal even more important. On the other hand Reggie Gilliam is kind of three players in one - core special teamer (particularly on punt team where he plays wing protector), fullback when they use one and emergency tight end. In the middle of last year they had got away from him totally on offense and I'd have said that made him more expendable but then Brady re-integrated him a bit. I don't know. I don't expect both back, but I think one of them will be. I also still think a pay cut is more likely than an outright cut with Tre White. My reasons are set out extensively elsewhere on the forum. Otherwise I think broadly you have players in the right categories. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 (edited) Thanks for putting this together. I know it gets really hard to put players into hard and fast groups but I think the duo of Morse/Bates should be listed in Group 1. One or the other, or both, will be on the roster. Edited March 1 by SoCal Deek 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFan Posted March 1 Author Share Posted March 1 1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said: Quit trying to "run it back" already. As Shaw said, we need to shake up the roster and infuse with new talent. Change approaches somewhat in schemes. ? What am I running back? I’m the guy saying 12-14 free agents. I am the guy saying don’t sign a vet WR. How is that “running it back”? I am the guy who has posted numerous times to dump Harty and Hines and not look back. However, regardless of what I want, we have to be realistic on who Beane may bring back just on restructured terms. That’s why group 4 exists to illustrate which vets are vulnerable to being cut or restructured. The last group (Group 7) on the original post are FAs who played for us last year that no one wants back. The 6th group are guys the Bills may be looking to bring back or are guys people on this board have posted that they want back. As I have posted elsewhere, this team is getting younger and cheaper because it has to and that’s a good thing. I believe 6-7 draftees will make the team next fall. If you turnover 40% of the roster as I have predicted (6-7 draftees plus 12-14 FAs) I’d say that’s a pretty big year over year change). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFan Posted March 1 Author Share Posted March 1 11 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: Thanks for putting this together. I know it gets really hard to put players into hard and fast groups but I think the duo of Morse/Bates should be listed in Group 1. One or the other, or both, will be on the roster. I general agree that at least one will be back next season and a high likelihood that both will return. However, because of the Bills cap situation and how their contracts are structured I couldn’t decide which one has the higher likelihood of returning. I also factored in that Morse might retire and that the Bills may be able to trade Bates for an asset and give Anderson the backup C job to save cap. So given the uncertainty around both players, I thought it best to put them in Group 2. I also wrote that I thought all the players in groups 1-3 (35 players in all) would be back with the Bills next season in some capacity. I think a couple of the group 3 could end up on the practice squad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR8 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 10 hours ago, gobillsatthebeach said: No safeties in group 1? Hamlin is on a rookie contract Hamlin sucks. He was mediocre at best in 2022, and in 2023 was worse. He was a guy they simply had to keep, and who was a great story. It's an abomination he didn't win comeback player of the year, as DUDE WAS DEAD! But he shouldn't be in the future plans even as a depth guy unless there's no other option. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 40 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said: ? What am I running back? I’m the guy saying 12-14 free agents. I am the guy saying don’t sign a vet WR. How is that “running it back”? I am the guy who has posted numerous times to dump Harty and Hines and not look back. However, regardless of what I want, we have to be realistic on who Beane may bring back just on restructured terms. That’s why group 4 exists to illustrate which vets are vulnerable to being cut or restructured. The last group (Group 7) on the original post are FAs who played for us last year that no one wants back. The 6th group are guys the Bills may be looking to bring back or are guys people on this board have posted that they want back. As I have posted elsewhere, this team is getting younger and cheaper because it has to and that’s a good thing. I believe 6-7 draftees will make the team next fall. If you turnover 40% of the roster as I have predicted (6-7 draftees plus 12-14 FAs) I’d say that’s a pretty big year over year change). I don't think he was suggesting you were arguing to run it back. He was directing that at the Bills. 31 minutes ago, MR8 said: Hamlin sucks. He was mediocre at best in 2022, and in 2023 was worse. He was a guy they simply had to keep, and who was a great story. It's an abomination he didn't win comeback player of the year, as DUDE WAS DEAD! But he shouldn't be in the future plans even as a depth guy unless there's no other option. He was their 5th choice safety in 2023. Cam Lewis was out there ahead of him. I agree he wasn't very good pre-Cincinnati and while I am relieved, happy and respectful of his comeback he isn't a guy I'd count on. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoonerBillsFan Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said: ? What am I running back? I’m the guy saying 12-14 free agents. I am the guy saying don’t sign a vet WR. How is that “running it back”? I am the guy who has posted numerous times to dump Harty and Hines and not look back. However, regardless of what I want, we have to be realistic on who Beane may bring back just on restructured terms. That’s why group 4 exists to illustrate which vets are vulnerable to being cut or restructured. The last group (Group 7) on the original post are FAs who played for us last year that no one wants back. The 6th group are guys the Bills may be looking to bring back or are guys people on this board have posted that they want back. As I have posted elsewhere, this team is getting younger and cheaper because it has to and that’s a good thing. I believe 6-7 draftees will make the team next fall. If you turnover 40% of the roster as I have predicted (6-7 draftees plus 12-14 FAs) I’d say that’s a pretty big year over year change). Sorry I wasn't trying to bash you or you good post. I was just saying I wouldn't bring anyone back on the last part of your list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFan Posted March 1 Author Share Posted March 1 (edited) No problem. l’m a little cranky in the morning. Edited March 1 by GASabresIUFan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbitmic Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 On 3/1/2024 at 7:04 AM, GunnerBill said: I don't see them cutting Gilliam AND Neal. That would mean losing their three best special teamers in one fell swoop and I don't think they are going to do that. I know fans disregard special teams but NFL teams don't. Matakevich is gone and I'm not expecting him back, the question is can they afford both Gilliam and Neal. I suspect not. But their gunner play took a noticeable drop off last year with no Taiwan Jones so that possibly makes Neal even more important. On the other hand Reggie Gilliam is kind of three players in one - core special teamer (particularly on punt team where he plays wing protector), fullback when they use one and emergency tight end. In the middle of last year they had got away from him totally on offense and I'd have said that made him more expendable but then Brady re-integrated him a bit. I don't know. I don't expect both back, but I think one of them will be. I also still think a pay cut is more likely than an outright cut with Tre White. My reasons are set out extensively elsewhere on the forum. Otherwise I think broadly you have players in the right categories. Taiwan was good for a tackle or two a year and Matakevich good for two maybe three tackles. By far this teams best Special Teams players were Cam Lewis and Siran Neal. This team can't afford to pay players millions just to play STs any more. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 7 minutes ago, frostbitmic said: Taiwan was good for a tackle or two a year and Matakevich good for two maybe three tackles. By far this teams best Special Teams players were Cam Lewis and Siran Neal. This team can't afford to pay players millions just to play STs any more. Taiwan > Cam and not even close. Cam loses contain way too often as a gunner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFan Posted March 3 Author Share Posted March 3 Hines to be released. Could he return on a futures deal to camp for a tryout if healthy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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