McBean’s draft history and who we draft at 27

[NoSaint]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'm pretty sure that this is the 25th consecutive year that Bills fans on TSW feel that the Bills are in an "awkward spot" in round 1.

it’s just so hard to predict drafting those guys slotted above us 

[BillsVet]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I'm pretty sure that this is the 25th consecutive year that Bills fans on TSW feel that the Bills are in an "awkward spot" in round 1.

 

The chronic worriers group on TBD has significantly grown though in that time.  I've wanted to start a thread on  the things that keeps me up at night like:

Who will be the 3rd string TE?  And, how they'll round out the ST unit?  Or, will McD's personal assistant be up to supporting the HC now that he's wearing the DC hat?

 

I'm worried.  Really worried. 

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by BillsVet

[RyanC883]

14 hours ago, LEBills said:

We are now going into the 6th draft of the McBeane partnership. In that timeframe they have certainly shown that they have a type of prospect they look for in the first round.

 

Since 2018, every first draft pick has:

1. Been 21 years old or younger

2. Had two years of solid college production (Rousseau is the one exception but Covid complicated this)

3. Had clean medicals

4. Had a top 30 visit. We do not have all visits reported so this will not disqualify for this exercise.

 

With these parameters, we can make a good guess of who Beane is targeting. We will break it down position by position. I will not be considering players like Jalen Carter, Bijon Robinson or Paris Johnson who are basically guaranteed to be gone.
 

WR

Fit: Jordan Addison

Excludes: JSN (production), Zay Flowers (age), Quentin Johnston (production), Hyatt (production)

 

TE

Fit: Michael Mayer

Excludes: Dalton Kincaid (medical, age), Darnell Washington (medical)

 

OT

Fit: Anton Harrison

Excludes: Matt Bergeron (age), Darnell Wright (production - he was awful in 2021 at LT)

 

LB

Fit: Trenton Simpson

Excludes: Jack Campbell (age), Drew Sanders (production)

 

DL

Mazi Smith

Myles Murphy

Excludes: Bryan Bresee (medical), Calijah Kancey (age), Nolan Smith (age), Will McDonald (age), Keion White (age)

 

Final Board

1. Jordan Addison (top 30 visit confirmed)

Addison has it all. Just turned 21. Two years of production at two different schools. Can play in the slot or out wide. McDermott is close with Pitt coach Narduzzi. Clear role immediately in the offense. And a confirmed 30 visit. If he is there, I think that is guaranteed to be the pick.

 

2. Mazi Smith (top 30 visit confirmed)

Though not my favorite pick, Beane was very honest in his pre draft presser that you are looking for someone who can contribute year 1 and become a starter by year 2. He also admitted that DT is a position where investments need to be made. Finally, he saw how our run defense nosedived against the Bengals with Jones out. It won’t be flashy pick but one Beane will justify.

 

3. Anton Harrison (top 30 reported by walterfootball but no one else)

I think the Bills feel they can upgrade at Tackle but don’t need to with Brown. This pick would create a winner take all, loser to the swing tackle position battle between Harrison and Brown. In 2 years he would be a successor to Dawkins.

 

4. Trenton Simpson

MLB is the most obvious hole in the team, but I’m just not sure the Bills see it as a must fill. I think they think someone will be available round 2 and so are ok waiting.

 

5. Myles Murphy

Murphy is a tough player to figure out. Some people have him as a top 15 pick, some think he may fall out of the first round. If he does fall to this position, there is a good chance he is the pick but he may get nowhere close to us

 

6. Michael Mayer

I just don’t think the Bills are going TE in round 1. A rd2 or 3 player seems more likely.

 

 

really don't like anyone beyond Addison at that pick from this list (perhaps Harrison).  Addison would be the pick for all the reasons you mentioned.  He's ready to go Day 1 and is really another WR1.  Great pick. 

Harrison is okay, but I'd go with Wright over him.  Given your simulation, I'd def want one of them here, however, if Addison is gone.  

 

Mazi Smith: we are in win-now mode, Smith likely does not help much next year, or eventually in future years.  But this does seem like the classic Bean over-reach..  

 

Simpson: pass.  LB is a hole, again, we need offensive playmakers.  As you said, there is likely someone in the 2 or even later rounds.  The guy we draft won't need to start.  

 

Murphy: awful pick.  Way too inconsistent.  

 

Mayer: would be okay with this, but only if the WRs, and OTs are gone.  He's a great run blocker and would enable Josh to have dump-off passes.  But really, I'd prefer an IOL like Avila or Tippman here over a TE in a deep TE class.  

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

The chronic worriers group on TBD has significantly grown though in that time.  I've wanted to start a thread on  the things that keeps me up at night like:

Who will be the 3rd string TE?  And, how they'll round out the ST unit?  Or, will McD's personal assistant be up to supporting the HC now that he's wearing the DC hat?

 

I'm worried.  Really worried. 

 

 

 

Draft season is the worst for worrying about things that don't matter.   Runnin' bax season is a hard watch.   And mockers patching every perceived hole on the roster by applying a pick number to a position that expresses their urgency..........as if that matters if the talent isn't there at that spot.

[RyanC883]

3 hours ago, JohnNord said:

All of this makes a lot of sense.  But when you look at the return from the first and second round picks over the years it makes you wonder if the Bills take a different approach and swings for someone who step in and contribute rather than players like Rosseau and Elam who were more raw talents with a lot of upside

 

i hope so.  The current draft picks in Rd. 1 (outside of Allen) have been underwhelming.  

[ticketssince61]

16 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I recently read an analysis of younger vs older draft picks. There did seem to be something to taking the younger prospects - even in the early seasons after being drafted. It wasn’t so much that their production was off the charts great so much as the older prospects did relatively poorly overall. Even the best GMs have a hit rate below 50%. 

 

Probably because the best players are the ones who leave early and don't need another year to prove themselves

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, ticketssince61 said:

 

Probably because the best players are the ones who leave early and don't need another year to prove themselves

Yes. That’s a concise way of putting it. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

19 hours ago, LEBills said:

We are now going into the 6th draft of the McBeane partnership. In that timeframe they have certainly shown that they have a type of prospect they look for in the first round.

 

Since 2018, every first draft pick has:

1. Been 21 years old or younger

2. Had two years of solid college production (Rousseau is the one exception but Covid complicated this)

3. Had clean medicals

4. Had a top 30 visit. We do not have all visits reported so this will not disqualify for this exercise.

 

With these parameters, we can make a good guess of who Beane is targeting. We will break it down position by position. I will not be considering players like Jalen Carter, Bijon Robinson or Paris Johnson who are basically guaranteed to be gone.
 

WR

Fit: Jordan Addison

Excludes: JSN (production), Zay Flowers (age), Quentin Johnston (production), Hyatt (production)

 

TE

Fit: Michael Mayer

Excludes: Dalton Kincaid (medical, age), Darnell Washington (medical)

 

OT

Fit: Anton Harrison

Excludes: Matt Bergeron (age), Darnell Wright (production - he was awful in 2021 at LT)

 

LB

Fit: Trenton Simpson

Excludes: Jack Campbell (age), Drew Sanders (production)

 

DL

Mazi Smith

Myles Murphy

Excludes: Bryan Bresee (medical), Calijah Kancey (age), Nolan Smith (age), Will McDonald (age), Keion White (age)

 

Final Board

1. Jordan Addison (top 30 visit confirmed)

Addison has it all. Just turned 21. Two years of production at two different schools. Can play in the slot or out wide. McDermott is close with Pitt coach Narduzzi. Clear role immediately in the offense. And a confirmed 30 visit. If he is there, I think that is guaranteed to be the pick.

 

2. Mazi Smith (top 30 visit confirmed)

Though not my favorite pick, Beane was very honest in his pre draft presser that you are looking for someone who can contribute year 1 and become a starter by year 2. He also admitted that DT is a position where investments need to be made. Finally, he saw how our run defense nosedived against the Bengals with Jones out. It won’t be flashy pick but one Beane will justify.

 

3. Anton Harrison (top 30 reported by walterfootball but no one else)

I think the Bills feel they can upgrade at Tackle but don’t need to with Brown. This pick would create a winner take all, loser to the swing tackle position battle between Harrison and Brown. In 2 years he would be a successor to Dawkins.

 

4. Trenton Simpson

MLB is the most obvious hole in the team, but I’m just not sure the Bills see it as a must fill. I think they think someone will be available round 2 and so are ok waiting.

 

5. Myles Murphy

Murphy is a tough player to figure out. Some people have him as a top 15 pick, some think he may fall out of the first round. If he does fall to this position, there is a good chance he is the pick but he may get nowhere close to us

 

6. Michael Mayer

I just don’t think the Bills are going TE in round 1. A rd2 or 3 player seems more likely.

 

Sound logic, thanks for posting. 

 

This is an ugly final list though. 

 

 

[Sierra Foothills]

To the OP, from The Athletic and addressing our earlier speculation as to whether Beane might break from previous ground rules:

 

Kincaid bucks a pretty big trend with the Bills’ first-round pick

 

"Since Beane’s first draft in 2018, the Bills have followed a similar path on all their first-round picks. They primarily swing for the fences on a high-potential player and usually veer young to match up the player’s prime with having ample acclimation time to the speed and strength of the NFL. With all Beane’s first-round picks, including Josh Allen, Tremaine Edmunds, Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau and Kaiir Elam, their average age at the draft was just under 21 years old.

However, that is very much not Kincaid. He’s over halfway from 23 to 24 years old, hitting that birthday in mid-October, and a full 2 1/2 years older than the Bills’ usual lean with their top selection under Beane. It’s not necessarily a damning factor to the Bills if Kincaid has the talent worthy of the first-round pick, but Kincaid’s journey to the NFL took a lot longer than most of his peers in the 2023 draft. It reduces the long-term nature of the selection and means Kincaid will be in his “prime” pretty quickly into his NFL career. However, tight end is one of the weirdest positions in the NFL to scout and get right in a big way, so the usual age considerations at other spots may not carry as much weight. At the very least, it’s a trend-busting move by Beane. Kincaid will enter his age-28 season when Knox’s contract extension expires in the 2027 offseason."