The importance of a true number one WR

[ColoradoBills]

7 hours ago, Marlton Bills said:

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

 

I do know how important the Outside Depth WR#3 is.  I'm not sure about the #1.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Not to pile on here, but there isn't any other real interesting convos going on right hahaha. 

 

But Hill being one of the top 2 WR's in the NFL is just not accurate, and he more closely mirrors Amari Cooper in production than he does any of the top 5 guys. 

 

Do you know how many times Hill has broken 100 yards in a game each of the past 3 seasons?  Just 8 games out of those 42 games he has topped 100 yards while playing with Mahomes on one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL.  Adams on the other hand, had 8 games in 2021 alone with over 100 yards and averages close to that a season. 

 

Like Amari, Hill has s a couple of very big games that make his season total look pretty (yet never as good as Adams totals) and a lot of other games where he doesn't make a huge impact.  Case in point, 43% of his yards and 60% of his TD's last year came in just 3 games.  And this is par for the course annually with Hill.  He had 8 games last year where he had under 65 yards and no TD, most of which were under 50 yards. 

 

Adams on the other hand has played in 42 games the last 3 years and has 100 yards or more in 21 of them.  Thats literally half the games he has played in.  He is consistently a beast throughout the season and that is what he does pretty much every year since becoming a #1 WR. 

 

Hopkins is coming off a season where he was ranked 31st in yards per route run, never had a 100 yard game, and only had a 20% target share which was 35th amongst WR's.  In other words, he was a far cry from the dominant take over WR he had been when he was easily a top 2 WR in the past. 

 

He was still very good in the redzone with 8 TD's, but he didn't have the same impact on the field overall indicative of a top 2 WR.  And being 30 and having a PED suspension, there are legit questions now about whether or not physically he can get back to where he was when he was a top 2 WR.  His days as a top 2 WR IMHO are behind him.   

 

 

I love DK and wanted the Bills so badly to draft him and we instead took Ford.  But, at the end of the day, DK doesn't have the same route tree as the other guys who are in the top 5, even though he is elite at what he does best.  

 

 

Agreed

 

 

Agree, Kupp is absolutely in the top 2 WR's right now, but he is not wrong on Dhop and Hill, he is actually fairly accurate.  Hill is certainly top 10, (where is subjective) but he is not top 5 for reasons I already stated.  DHop as I already explained at 30 is now coming off injuries, the worst year of his career, a PED suspension, and has a lot to prove before he can regain top 5 status.  

 

For me, top 5 today is pretty clear and probably easily the consensus...and in no particular order: Adams, Kupp, Jefferson, Diggs, and Chase.  Former top 5 guys looking to rebound back into the top 5 are Hopkins and Thomas, but both have a lot to prove to get back into those convos.  Especially given the talent level of the top 5 today.   

 

The next consensus next 5 is more debatable, but I think in no particular order 4 of the guys are Hill, Deebo, Hopkins, and Evans (all in no particular order).  That final spot is harder to narrow down as I think several WR's could make a case...guys like K. Allen, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Lamb and potentially Michael Thomas if he comes back stong this season.  Some young guys could be knocking on that door too who are going to all see significant QB upgrades this season for the first time in their careers...guys like McLaurin, DJ Moore, Sutton, and Jeudy.  

 

I just think you are wrong. I will concede we might never see DHop again be what he was after the injury and suspension but the issue last year was not DHop. It was Kyler.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just think you are wrong. I will concede we might never see DHop again be what he was after the injury and suspension but the issue last year was not DHop. It was Kyler.

 

All good, but the math, statistics, production and consistency over the past 4 years says I am right.  Film does too   But all good my man, agree to disagree, been a fun convo none the less 

[BADOLBILZ]

 

 

There are a ton of ways to illustrate the importance of a #1 WR in a matchup league like the NFL.

 

But the fact that there were 5 #1 WR types on the field in the Super Bowl illustrates how valuable top receivers have become.

 

Kupp, OBJ, Chase, Higgins and Boyd.

 

Boyd is the least regarded of the bunch and he had over 800 yards and didn't drop a single pass in the entire regular season as the 3rd option for Joe Burrow.

 

Jalen Ramsey is as good as it gets in man coverage and he got run ragged by all the stud receiver talent he had to face in the playoffs and SB.

 

The next level down doesn't do that.

[billybrew1]

14 hours ago, Marlton Bills said:

Let me preface this by saying I love Stefon Diggs.  This is not an advocation to move on from him.  But my question stems from the fact that 2 other teams (GB and KC) with an Ellie QB have moved on from there true #1 WR’s.  If this season plays out well for them will this be a trend?  

IDK, but I for one, feel both GB and KC will pay for dumping their stars when they meet up with great teams. For KC, that is going to be about every week. Look at their schedule, talk about tough…. No way they win the division in my opinion but I do think they’ll be a dangerous wild card….. GB will probably win home field again with their super easy schedule, but won’t make it to the show yet again. If they somehow do make it, the AFC will trounce them.

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, billybrew1 said:

IDK, but I for one, feel both GB and KC will pay for dumping their stars when they meet up with great teams. For KC, that is going to be about every week. Look at their schedule, talk about tough…. No way they win the division in my opinion but I do think they’ll be a dangerous wild card….. GB will probably win home field again with their super easy schedule, but won’t make it to the show yet again. If they somehow do make it, the AFC will trounce them.

KC Signed Ju Ju - I expect him to go over 1000. They won't miss hill much, if at all. GB on the other hand was in bad shape even WITH Adams. They are a stone cold lock to not win the Super Bowl.

Edited August 26, 2022 by BullBuchanan

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

All good, but the math, statistics, production and consistency over the past 4 years says I am right.  Film does too   But all good my man, agree to disagree, been a fun convo none the less 

 

Think you are wrong on the film. I don't believe on judging WRs just on stats and never have. I think the film backs me up.

[Alphadawg7]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Think you are wrong on the film. I don't believe on judging WRs just on stats and never have. I think the film backs me up.

Again, all good, we agree to disagree.  I’m just shocked because the film on Adams is incredible.  He has the best release off the line in the NFL and is easily one of the best route runners in the league.