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Allen still is fairly significantly better on the Road than at Home. Splits don't lie. Thoughts as to why.


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19 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Allen just doesn't like playing in Buffalo. 

 

He's gonna hold out after next season 🙄

 

He's going to be the first ever player to hold out for a roof on a new stadium. What a community guy!

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2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

No...if you look at the statistical breakdown I posted a few posts above, I am saying that teams that come to Buffalo play relatively better against the Bills in Buffalo than they do in their own stadiums.

 

The Bills rank 25th for home QB rating, and 8th for road QB rating. Their difference of 17 is the largest in the NFL. Arizona and KC ironically also have a large variance in favor of road QB rating ranking 1/2 on the road versus 16/17 at home for a differential of 15.

 

The Bills are #1 in the NFL in net passer rater ranking and net passer rating on the road but rank 10th and 5th at home.

Ok, well I don’t care enough about this to go back and look at and analyze any stats from a super small sample size. 
 

believe whatever you like.  I suppose the playoffs game vs the Pats was an anomaly. I’ll definitely be rooting for us to make the wildcard and have only away games come playoff time. Especially considering Josh’s terrible playoff record @ home due to being to hyped.  
 

i said my peace.  Carry on.

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2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Ok, well I don’t care enough about this to go back and look at and analyze any stats from a super small sample size. 
 

believe whatever you like.  I suppose the playoffs game vs the Pats was an anomaly. I’ll definitely be rooting for us to make the wildcard and have only away games come playoff time. Especially considering Josh’s terrible playoff record @ home due to being to hyped.  
 

i said my peace.  Carry on.

 

Saying someone is better on the road does not equate to saying someone is bad at home.  More people would do well to understand that because it seems to be something many are struggling with.

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8 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Saying someone is better on the road does not equate to saying someone is bad at home.  More people would do well to understand that because it seems to be something many are struggling with.

You’re blowing this completely out of proportion.  The sample size it too small.  
 

None of this matters.  The topic is so ridiculous.  If I understood, it wouldn’t make any difference .  This topic is not real. And if it was, it wouldn’t make any difference.  

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5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You’re blowing this completely out of proportion.  The sample size it too small.  
 

None of this matters.  The topic is so ridiculous.  If I understood, it wouldn’t make any difference .  This topic is not real. And if it was, it wouldn’t make any difference.  


61 games seems to be a pretty decent sample size, but with the NFL playing only 16 games a year, you could argue virtually anything statistically is an anomaly due to small sample size in comparison to hockey or basketball which play 82 games, and especially baseball which plays 162 games. 

 

Does it matter?  Maybe it does or maybe it doesn't.  The problem seems to be that people want to make the assumption it is the weather.  I've offered evidence statistically that it isn't.  Maybe I'll break down the other seasons in the same way to see if this pattern persists.  The problem is more the unwillingness of the majority of the posters to consider other alternatives rather than the analysis.  

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Just now, Big Turk said:


61 games seems to be a pretty decent sample size, but with the NFL playing only 16 games a year, you could argue virtually anything statistically is an anomaly due to small sample size in comparison to hockey or basketball which play 82 games, and especially baseball which plays 162 games. 

 

Does it matter?  Maybe it does or maybe it doesn't.  The problem seems to be that people want to make the assumption it is the weather.  I've offered evidence statistically that it isn't.  Maybe I'll break down the other seasons in the same way to see if this pattern persists.  The problem is more the unwillingness of the majority of the posters to consider other alternatives rather than the analysis.  

Ok.  It’s josh’s being too hyped. No sweat off my brow.  It means literally nothing 

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Take a hot look at what the opposing QB stats are in those home games where QB17 has his bad games. Maybe there’s something there other than “sugar high Josh”, could be weather related as well. 🤷🏼‍♂️ Just more to look at if one is bored. 

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15 hours ago, beerme1 said:

Wait, what was our record last year? 

 

Not sure why people are acting as if this is some attack on Allen when it's not.

 

It's a question that people want to sweep under the carpet seemingly as if there can be only one answer when I have offered evidence to the contrary.

 

Nobody is saying Allen is "bad" at home. Just wondering why he is better on the road to the degree he is.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Not sure why people are acting as if this is some attack on Allen when it's not.

 

It's a question that people want to sweep under the carpet seemingly as if there can be only one answer when I have offered evidence to the contrary.

 

Nobody is saying Allen is "bad" at home. Just wondering why he is better on the road to the degree he is.

 

 

 

Fair enough. I just think it's not a worthy cause.

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2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Not sure why people are acting as if this is some attack on Allen when it's not.

 

It's a question that people want to sweep under the carpet seemingly as if there can be only one answer when I have offered evidence to the contrary.

 

Nobody is saying Allen is "bad" at home. Just wondering why he is better on the road to the degree he is.

so tell us what fairly significantly better means?

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51 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

How did this thread go 9 pages? It's weather (ie wind and precipitation and cold). Period.

 

Derrrrrr!

 

 

 

It doesn't appear to only be that from more in depth analysis. Easy to assume it is without actually looking into it further tho.

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7 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Not sure why people are acting as if this is some attack on Allen when it's not.

 

It's a question that people want to sweep under the carpet seemingly as if there can be only one answer when I have offered evidence to the contrary.

 

Nobody is saying Allen is "bad" at home. Just wondering why he is better on the road to the degree he is.

 

 

I thought you told us that you know why….. he gets too hyped….. No?

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I calculated Jim Kelly's home vs. road splits through Kelly's first four seasons. Kelly was 4 points better, 61% completion vs 57% completion on the road vs. at home. However, by the time Kelly retired, his career home vs. road completion percentage split was only 0.7% better on the road then at home. 

 

His passer rating was two points better on the road vs at home (83.61 to 81.66) in his first 4 seasons. However, by the time Kelly retired he had made was better at home vs on the road.  He ended his career at 86.3 home vs. 82.8 on the road.

 

For his career, Kelly threw for .4 more yards per attempt at home then on the road. However, in his first four season he threw for .15 less yards at home vs. on the road. 

 

Kelly averaged 39 more YPG on the road vs. at home in his first four seasons. By the time Kelly retired he averaged only 8 more YPG on the road vs. at home.

 

The above tells me a couple things could be true:

 

1. 4 seasons is simply not a large enough sample size.

2. it takes time to perfect the art of playing in the Buffalo elements.

 

That said, Allen's home vs. road splits are much more dramatic then Kelly's were in each players first four seasons. Also, taking a deep dive into Allen's home vs. road splits we actually find that they have extended even more in favor towards road in his 3rd and 4th years as opposed to his 1st and 2nd years. 

 

In Allen's first two seasons he threw for 15 YPG less at home then he did on the road. In his last two seasons he's thrown for 75 YPG less at home then on the road. Again, the road vs. home gap is widening, not shortening like Kelly ultimately did in his career.

 

It will be interesting to see where Allen's home vs. road splits ends up. 

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