GameStop (GME) Insane Ride

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Jauronimo said:

As far as I know, you can't unless you're an investment bank or a high net worth individual who has those connections.  Better explanation copied below:

 

 

 

Thanks dude. That (unfortunately) makes sense and lines up with what I was able to dig up as well.

 

I guess I need to find a real live Stock Broker at one of the larger players and try to leverage that? I know I won't be able to get in at the original IPO price. But would like to be as early and low as possible.

[qwksilver]

7 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Thanks dude. That (unfortunately) makes sense and lines up with what I was able to dig up as well.

 

I guess I need to find a real live Stock Broker at one of the larger players and try to leverage that? I know I won't be able to get in at the original IPO price. But would like to be as early and low as possible.

There is the IPO price (the price underwriters sell to their clients) and the opening trade on the exchange after the IPO price (secondary market) there is no in between price.

It's quite a racket but don't kill the messenger. 

This is part of the reason the SPAC market has been so busy. The issue with SPACs is you don't know what you are buying, only known is management.

 

 

Edited March 23, 2021 by qwksilver

[Doc]

The only IPO I was ever able to get in-on was Sam Adams/Boston Beer Company some 25 years ago.  But that was offered by them.  I got 33 shares at $15 ($500, which is all they allowed you to get).

[Buffalo716]

23 minutes ago, Doc said:

The only IPO I was ever able to get in-on was Sam Adams/Boston Beer Company some 25 years ago.  But that was offered by them.  I got 33 shares at $15 ($500, which is all they allowed you to get).

Did you hold? Would have been a great 

[Doc]

11 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Did you hold? Would have been a great 

 

Yup.

[DrDawkinstein]

13 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Yup.

 

That's awesome.

 

I have a great-uncle who, in a case of more luck than brains, went along with his buddy's suggestion to get in on M&T Bank when they IPO'ed in 1980. While all his siblings were in investments and real estate, he wasnt much of an investor and got into this on a lark just to test the waters.

 

It is unbelievable what that one has done over the years. With one stock, he has out-performed everyone in the family, and his kids/grandkids are set well after his passing.

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

15 hours ago, qwksilver said:

There is the IPO price (the price underwriters sell to their clients) and the opening trade on the exchange after the IPO price (secondary market) there is no in between price.

It's quite a racket but don't kill the messenger. 

This is part of the reason the SPAC market has been so busy. The issue with SPACs is you don't know what you are buying, only known is management.

 

 

 

Thanks for the info. I'm aware that all this stuff is truly a racket to favor the big guys.

 

The good news is, I just checked the IPO calendar for stocks that hit the market today, and their current retail price versus the IPO price is pretty close. Most are available for me to purchase within $2 of their original IPO price. One of them has even gone DOWN since it opened.

 

So it doesnt look like we are too far on the outside. And if I can get in within $1-5 of the original price, I'll be happy as an outsider.

[DrDawkinstein]

Update:

 

Buffalo Start-up darling ACV Auctions (ACVA) IPO'ed today. That was who I was trying to get in on.

 

Their original IPO price was estimated to be $20. They actually IPOed at $25. By the time I could get in through my lowly amateur retail account, the price was closer to $30.

 

All in all, not too bad of a mark-up. Especially since I'm not trying to flip this stock anytime soon. Gonna ride this out and see what these guys can do over the next few years.

[Buffalo716]

6 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Update:

 

Buffalo Start-up darling ACV Auctions (ACVA) IPO'ed today. That was who I was trying to get in on.

 

Their original IPO price was estimated to be $20. They actually IPOed at $25. By the time I could get in through my lowly amateur retail account, the price was closer to $30.

 

All in all, not too bad of a mark-up. Especially since I'm not trying to flip this stock anytime soon. Gonna ride this out and see what these guys can do over the next few years.

You could have got it for 29 bucks today at a point. So it's not that off the ipo 

 

Let alone with how the market's going you might be able to get it below it soon

 

 

[Mark80]

Guess who is showing signs of life again?  Yep, that's right.  Up about 30% in last 2 days. 

Reasons:

- rumors of a fundamental shift in their business model which would support re-selling of digital games.

- stock vote on board members which many believe will expose naked short selling and trigger "the real" squeeze when the vote counts shows higher than the available shares that could vote

 

Still in for a whopping 8 shares since January.

[Doc]

My AMC is finally in the green again, after the initial ride.  I hope if follows GME but any bump will be nice.

[Doc]

AMC with sizable gains last 3 days. Hopefully short squeeze is coming soon. 

[Mark80]

5 hours ago, Doc said:

AMC with sizable gains last 3 days. Hopefully short squeeze is coming soon. 

 

Saw 36 today.  Know its back down today some, but a great few days for sure.  500M + shares traded though makes me nervous for a real short squeeze coming here.  GME for example, has only been having like 10M traded.  So, lots of people are selling AMC now, potentially hurting that squeeze potential.

Edited May 28, 2021 by Mark80

[Doc]

2 hours ago, Mark80 said:

Saw 36 today.  Know its back down today some, but a great few days for sure.  500M + shares traded though makes me nervous for a real short squeeze coming here.  GME for example, has only been having like 10M traded.  So, lots of people are selling AMC now, potentially hurting that squeeze potential.

 

It will be interesting to watch

[DrDawkinstein]

Back a few weeks ago, GME was back down around $150 and I thought "screw it, let's get in on the fun, even if it tanks", and bought a wopping ONE share for my daughter on her custodian account.

 

Fast forward to today and she's outperforming my entire portfolio. That little jerk, lol.

[DrDawkinstein]

On 3/22/2021 at 3:18 PM, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Thanks dude. That (unfortunately) makes sense and lines up with what I was able to dig up as well.

 

I guess I need to find a real live Stock Broker at one of the larger players and try to leverage that? I know I won't be able to get in at the original IPO price. But would like to be as early and low as possible.

 

On 3/22/2021 at 10:40 PM, qwksilver said:

There is the IPO price (the price underwriters sell to their clients) and the opening trade on the exchange after the IPO price (secondary market) there is no in between price.

It's quite a racket but don't kill the messenger. 

This is part of the reason the SPAC market has been so busy. The issue with SPACs is you don't know what you are buying, only known is management.

 

 

 

Circling back on this IPO stuff...

 

Funny enough, in the meantime since we posted this both SoFi Bank and Robinhood have added the feature of allowing users to buy-in at the IPO price.

[Doc]

On 5/28/2021 at 6:08 PM, Doc said:

 

It will be interesting to watch

 

AMC went up a bunch.  Probably because of the opening weekend haul of "A Quiet Place 2." 

[qwksilver]

3 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

Circling back on this IPO stuff...

 

Funny enough, in the meantime since we posted this both SoFi Bank and Robinhood have added the feature of allowing users to buy-in at the IPO price.

I am little removed from the day to day activities for discount brokerage. I wonder how they are allocating any shares they manage to get? Robinhood's website is vague on the description of allocation. Shocking!

 

I don't think I've posted this. Discount/Zero commission brokers make money by receiving "payment for order flow". The man behind this wonderful idea. None other than Bernie Madoff. He actually had a very profitable market making business for a very long time.

[DrDawkinstein]

OMG AMC

[Just Jack]

7 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

OMG AMC

 

I bought 4 shares back when it was about $10.  Thinking of dumping them now. 

[DrDawkinstein]

20 hours later: OMG AMC part 2 - Nosedive Boogaloo

[Doc]

And now it's back up again...

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

And now it's back up again...

 

Word is it tanked because AMC announced it was selling off 10M shares first thing this morning. But imo, that shouldnt cause the price to drop since it means (just like GameStop did), they now get a big injection of cash to pay off debts and stay afloat. This move will only make them stronger as a corporation. Maybe it was just the volume that caused the dip?

 

Not sure the ~$60 price is sustainable. As noted, that price makes AMC "worth" more than most companies in the S&P500.

 

So much is so overvalued right now. Makes me nervous. (Looking at you, TESLA!)

[DrDawkinstein]

Go GME, Go!

[Jauronimo]

On 6/3/2021 at 2:03 PM, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Word is it tanked because AMC announced it was selling off 10M shares first thing this morning. But imo, that shouldnt cause the price to drop since it means (just like GameStop did), they now get a big injection of cash to pay off debts and stay afloat. This move will only make them stronger as a corporation. Maybe it was just the volume that caused the dip?

 

Not sure the ~$60 price is sustainable. As noted, that price makes AMC "worth" more than most companies in the S&P500.

 

So much is so overvalued right now. Makes me nervous. (Looking at you, TESLA!)

TSLA is changing the world and energy sector.  AMC is a relic from the golden age of brick and mortar retail.  One of these things is not like the others.

[DrDawkinstein]

27 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

TSLA is changing the world and energy sector.  AMC is a relic from the golden age of brick and mortar retail.  One of these things is not like the others.

 

(Stealing most of what follows from other posts and articles)

 

Tesla is also way overvalued, and isnt turning big profits like a lot of other well established companies. That is what prompted Michael Burry's $530M Tesla short. It isnt so much against the company, but knowing that when interest rates inevitably go up, Tesla will be one of many companies hit hard (at least in its stock value).

 

Growth companies, however promising, have most of their expected profits in the future. Those profits have to be discounted by the interest rate to be turned into todays dollars. In other words, it doesn't matter how much money Tesla is going to make in the future if interest rates surge today. Well... it does matter... it's just worth a lot less.

 

So how does this relate to the Burry bet? You just have to scroll down a few lines on his 13F filing.

 

Burry has almost as many GOOG/FB calls as he does TSLA puts. Around ~$330MM of them. Why does this matter? These are big tech companies that are actually printing out metric *****-tons of profit today.

 

Interest rates stay the same but big tech goes up? Break even. Big tech goes down? Break even. Interest rates rise? Burry makes more money in a year than all of your wives boyfriends combined.

[Jauronimo]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

(Stealing most of what follows from other posts and articles)

 

Tesla is also way overvalued, and isnt turning big profits like a lot of other well established companies. That is what prompted Michael Burry's $530M Tesla short. It isnt so much against the company, but knowing that when interest rates inevitably go up, Tesla will be one of many companies hit hard (at least in its stock value).

 

Growth companies, however promising, have most of their expected profits in the future. Those profits have to be discounted by the interest rate to be turned into todays dollars. In other words, it doesn't matter how much money Tesla is going to make in the future if interest rates surge today. Well... it does matter... it's just worth a lot less.

 

So how does this relate to the Burry bet? You just have to scroll down a few lines on his 13F filing.

 

Burry has almost as many GOOG/FB calls as he does TSLA puts. Around ~$330MM of them. Why does this matter? These are big tech companies that are actually printing out metric *****-tons of profit today.

 

Interest rates stay the same but big tech goes up? Break even. Big tech goes down? Break even. Interest rates rise? Burry makes more money in a year than all of your wives boyfriends combined.

Tell me what stocks do well when interest rates go up??  Maybe some financials but there is an inverse relationship between market returns and rates. 

 

All companies are valued on forward looking metrics.  Those profits are discounted by the appropriate discount rate which is not the interest rate, by the way. In fact for some big tech companies, most of which are 90% or more equity in their cap structure, rising interest rates have very little affect on the company's WACC/cost fo equity.  I can assure you that I do not need any lessons in discounted cash flow analysis. 

 

The real pressure from rising rates is that the whole market is currently propped up on cheap debt and cheap margin.  A hint of rising rates sparks a move from speculative investments to safer harbors.  

 

According to the experts TESLA has been overvalued for going on a decade.  As to if its more overvalued than AMC I would just say that if I had to bet as to which has more staying power: Musk's vision and drive OR the attention span and commitment to HODL of autists, I'm taking Elon all day. 

[DrDawkinstein]

7 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Tell me what stocks do well when interest rates go up??  Maybe some financials but there is an inverse relationship between market returns and rates. 

 

All companies are valued on forward looking metrics.  Those profits are discounted by the appropriate discount rate which is not the interest rate, by the way. In fact for some big tech companies, most of which are 90% or more equity in their cap structure, rising interest rates have very little affect on the company's WACC/cost fo equity.  I can assure you that I do not need any lessons in discounted cash flow analysis. 

 

The real pressure from rising rates is that the whole market is currently propped up on cheap debt and cheap margin.  A hint of rising rates sparks a move from speculative investments to safer harbors.  

 

According to the experts TESLA has been overvalued for going on a decade.  As to if its more overvalued than AMC I would just say that if I had to bet as to which has more staying power: Musk's vision and drive OR the attention span and commitment to HODL of autists, I'm taking Elon all day. 

 

My man, you're making a bunch of arguments that I either agree with, or never said otherwise.

 

My point this entire time (well, the last 3-5 posts at least) is that the ENTIRE market is way over valued, and propped up not only on cheap debt and cheap margin, but by a $1.5Trillion cash injection and even more retail cash being pumped into it. Whole thing seems very flimsy right now, like it's on the edge of a correcting crash any moment.

 

That applies to AMC and Tesla, not either/or. And sure Tesla is more likely to survive given their business model vs AMC, but they are both equally at risk (if for different reasons).

[sherpa]

On 6/3/2021 at 3:03 PM, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Word is it tanked because AMC announced it was selling off 10M shares first thing this morning. But imo, that shouldnt cause the price to drop since it means (just like GameStop did), they now get a big injection of cash to pay off debts and stay afloat. 

 

Because stock is ownership.

If you issue more stock, you dilute the value of existing shares, thus reducing their value.

Stock issuance dilutes value, stock buybacks enhance it.