IgotBILLStopay Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 ok, after KC beating the Fins a first round bye for us is going to have only a 1-2% probability - but here are the narrow paths - let us say we have to win our last 3 games to get to 13-3. Basically we are in Dalton to Boyd Hail Mary territory - but, hey that did happen, no? a. KC loses their last three and Pitt loses at least one game and Browns lose at least one game - we are tied with Pitt (hold tiebreaker) at worst b. more realistically, let us say KC beats Atlanta but loses the other two (Saints and Chargers) - we are both 13-3 but they hold head to head tie break over us - then Pittsburgh needs to get to 13-3 so it is a 3 way tie break - which means Pittsburgh needs to win 2 and lose one (say, Colts). 1 1
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 (edited) Bills win out KC loses [edit out 2 or more] 3 would be best Steelers end with same record or worse than Buffalo 🦬 Edited December 15, 2020 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce 2
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 Aside from the Jets there aren't two teams I trust less to go into Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs than the Chargers and Falcons. Not saying it can't happen but those two teams have made an art form out of losing tragically this year. Yesterday they played one another and just traded turnovers in the last 2:00 until the Chargers finally acquiesced to win. 1 6
gobills404 Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/playoff-odds Football Outsiders currently have our odds to get the top seed at 0.2%. I definitely wouldn't hold my breath for either scenario. 1
TroutDog Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 Bills are in good shape. Just take care of what we control and let all the other garbage take care of itself. This team is coming into form at the PERFECT time. 3
IgotBILLStopay Posted December 15, 2020 Author Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:45 AM, SageAgainstTheMachine said: Aside from the Jets there aren't two teams I trust less to go into Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs than the Chargers and Falcons. Not saying it can't happen but those two teams have made an art form out of losing tragically this year. Yesterday they played one another and just traded turnovers in the last 2:00 until the Chargers finally acquiesced to win. Expand The Chargers almost beat the Chiefs this season, no? They have pretty much played the Chiefs the best. And this season - there really is no home field - Arrowhead is not really rocking That doesn’t detract from the fact that the joint probability of KC losing to both Saints and Chargers and the Bills winning out and Steelers winning 2 out of 3 is low. But by itself, I don’t think Lynn playing for his job and beating the Chiefs is improbable. Especially this season with COVID hanging over players’ heads. lose a couple of key players and anything can happen 1
PetermansRedemption Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 I don’t even mind missing out on the first round bye. As long as they can rest the starters in week 17. Make it like a preseason game.
IgotBILLStopay Posted December 15, 2020 Author Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:49 AM, gobills404 said: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/playoff-odds Football Outsiders currently have our odds to get the top seed at 0.2%. I definitely wouldn't hold my breath for either scenario. Expand NY Times have it 5 to 10 times higher at 1-2%. Just saying.
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:51 AM, IgotBILLStopay said: The Chargers almost beat the Chiefs this season, no? They have pretty much played the Chiefs the best. And this season - there really is no home field - Arrowhead is not really rocking That doesn’t detract from the fact that the joint probability of KC losing to both Saints and Chargers and the Bills winning out and Steelers winning 2 out of 3 is low. But by itself, I don’t think Lynn playing for his job and beating the Chiefs is improbable. Especially this season with COVID hanging over players’ heads. lose a couple of key players and anything can happen Expand Yeah divisional games tend to be closer. But I think the more Lynn plays for his job the dumber he gets. The shine on Herbert has also worn off the last 3 games, presumably as teams have gotten more tape. We shall see!
IgotBILLStopay Posted December 15, 2020 Author Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:41 AM, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said: Bills win out KC loses 2 or more 3 would be best Steelers end with same record or worse than Buffalo 🦬 Expand u basically summarized what I said but used 10% of the words! Kudos on the efficiency. one minor edit to your brief post - if we are tied with KC, steelers can’t have worse record since we lose the tiebreak.
fergie's ire Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:49 AM, gobills404 said: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/playoff-odds Football Outsiders currently have our odds to get the top seed at 0.2%. I definitely wouldn't hold my breath for either scenario. Expand So....you're sayin' there's a chance. 1 1
Aussie Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 You can get 150-1 odds on this if you are feeling lucky ...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 (edited) On 12/15/2020 at 12:57 AM, IgotBILLStopay said: u basically summarized what I said but used 10% of the words! Kudos on the efficiency. one minor edit to your brief post - if we are tied with KC, steelers can’t have worse record since we lose the tiebreak. Expand i post a lot but in as few words as possible Correct KC needs 3 losses. Buffalo and Pitt same record Bills get the tiebreaker Edited December 15, 2020 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce
Warcodered Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:35 AM, IgotBILLStopay said: ok, after KC beating the Fins a first round bye for us is going to have only a 1-2% probability - but here are the narrow paths - let us say we have to win our last 3 games to get to 13-3. Basically we are in Dalton to Boyd Hail Mary territory - but, hey that did happen, no? a. KC loses their last three and Pitt loses at least one game and Browns lose at least one game - we are tied with Pitt (hold tiebreaker) at worst b. more realistically, let us say KC beats Atlanta but loses the other two (Saints and Chargers) - we are both 13-3 but they hold head to head tie break over us - then Pittsburgh needs to get to 13-3 so it is a 3 way tie break - which means Pittsburgh needs to win 2 and lose one (say, Colts). Expand Most realistic path for this left is the Chiefs dropping two to the Chargers and Saints and the Steelers dropping one more to anyone but probably Cleveland. Then we win out and tie and we get the 1 seed with our strength of schedule.
IgotBILLStopay Posted December 15, 2020 Author Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 1:42 AM, Warcodered said: Most realistic path for this left is the Chiefs dropping two to the Chargers and Saints and the Steelers dropping one more to anyone but probably Cleveland. Then we win out and tie and we get the 1 seed with our strength of schedule. Expand Ok that is very similar to my scenario b.except the Steelers lose to Browns instead of Colts.The only issue is that if that happens and the Brownies win tonight -they may join the 13-3 party and I didn’t want to get into 4 team tie-break scenarios
Warcodered Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 1:47 AM, IgotBILLStopay said: Ok that is very similar to my scenario b.except the Steelers lose to Browns instead of Colts.The only issue is that if that happens and the Brownies win tonight -they may join the 13-3 party and I didn’t want to get into 4 team tie-break scenarios Expand Would that be a 4 way tie or a 3 way tie with whoever wins the 2 way tie? 1
IgotBILLStopay Posted December 15, 2020 Author Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 1:49 AM, Warcodered said: Would that be a 4 way tie or a 3 way tie with whoever wins the 2 way tie? Expand 3-way after div tie-break - too lazy to figure out which of the 4 gets the bye - so ex-ante it is one out of those 4😀
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 KC has tiebreaker over Buffalo a tie record will not help the Bills
Saint Doug Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 I would like to get a first round bye, but I think home field advantage this year is minimal. I would love to get a players point-of-view on this though.
Giuseppe Tognarelli Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 The 1 seed is unrealistic and undeserved. The 2 seed is realistic and deserved. I think it's going to happen. On 12/15/2020 at 12:53 AM, PetermansRedemption said: I don’t even mind missing out on the first round bye. As long as they can rest the starters in week 17. Make it like a preseason game. Expand Seems highly unlikely that seeding won't be in play.
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