2016 Election vs 2020 Election

[BillsFanNC]

 

[H2o]

32 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:

Your questions:

 

1. Where do you actually believe that Trump has lost the votes he had in 2016, an election where he won easily?

2. If the MSM was lying through their teeth in 2016 about Hillary/Kaine then what actually leads you to believe they are not doing the same now with Biden/Harris?

3. Do you honestly, I mean honestly, believe that the "silent majority" is for Biden/Harris? 

 

1. He did not win easily. MI, WI and PA were all very close races. That's 46 electoral votes.

 

WI was 20,000 votes with over 106,000 going to a 3rd party.

MI was 11,000 votes with over 172,000 going to a 3rd party

Pa was 44,000 votes with over 146,000 going to a 3rd party.

 

So, it was far from an election that he won easily.

 

This time there is no strong 3rd party candidate that is getting strong support from the left like Jill Stein or Gary Johnson. If anything the libertarian Jo Jorgenson (?) is more likely to take right votes.

 

There's a reason Republican lawyers were trying to help Kanye West get on ballots in places like WI. 

 

2. They were not lying through their teeth. They reported polls and the polls had leads for Trump. Polls fluctuated a ton during that election. Every couple days there was a new bombshell that changed polls. Close to the election we had the Comey bombshell so polls from September wouldn't have adjusted for that.

 

Here's polling averages for 2016:

 

 

Polls are nowhere this crazy in 2020. Polls have basically stayed the same since Biden was announced:

 

 

Another main issue with the polls is undecides broke nearly 3 to 1 for Trump in 2016. The undecides in 2016 were much larger than now. In 2020 undecides are about 4 percent.

 

In addition, the 2018 polls all showed a blue tsunami and it happened.

 

If you look at average poll results by state, the final polls were all pretty close to what happened except for in IA and WI where there were large changes.

 

You can see polling average vs final result here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016StateFinalResults.html

 

Other issue too Biden has polling polling over 50 percent, something Hilary never did.

 

3. By definition the majority is the group of more people. Hilary won the popular vote by 3,000,000+ people so the Democrats may or may not be silent, but they are the majority.

 

You can see here, 538 projects even if Biden wins the popular vote, it still doesn't give him close to a 100 percent chance of winning:

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632

Thank you for the information my friend. A much appreciated reference and breakdown. There was a blue wave in the House, but the Republicans did manage to flip seats in the Senate. I believe that the House was more of the Dems focus in 2018 because they felt it was more vulnerable and did a lot more campaign work. We shall see in how it shakes out in 26 days. 

[Tiberius]

10 minutes ago, H2o said:

Yep, read the book. And if that is your stance on Trump that is fine. I have no qualms with that. My original questions however were:

 

Where do you actually believe that Trump has lost the votes he had in 2016, an election where he won easily?

If the MSM was lying through their teeth in 2016 about Hillary/Kaine then what actually leads you to believe they are not doing the same now with Biden/Harris?

Do you honestly, I mean honestly, believe that the "silent majority" is for Biden/Harris? 

 

Then I asked what the basis was for your answer and you claimed "polls". Here we are. 

 

Yes, I believe the polls. Not sure why you say they are lies, aside from the fact they are showing you info you just don’t like. 

 

Yes, the majority is for Biden 

You think the media is a conspiracy? Like the government controlled media in Oceana? 

[H2o]

3 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Yes, I believe the polls. Not sure why you say they are lies, aside from the fact they are showing you info you just don’t like. 

 

Yes, the majority is for Biden 

You think the media is a conspiracy? Like the government controlled media in Oceana? 

No, I don't believe the polls. Yes, I do believe the mainstream media has an agenda and a narrative they have followed since November of 2016 in this instance, and other narratives prior to this Presidency they pushed. That is me. Your answer is you.

[{::'KayCeeS::}]

5 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Yes, I believe the polls. Not sure why you say they are lies, aside from the fact they are showing you info you just don’t like. 

 

Yes, the majority is for Biden 

You think the media is a conspiracy? Like the government controlled media in Oceana? 

 

Here's my question:

 

Trace the money upwards.  A super duper fractional amount of people own EVERYTHING.

 

So why wouldn't these people orchestrate their holdings?

 

 I mean, wouldn't you?

 

 

[Tiberius]

4 minutes ago, H2o said:

No, I don't believe the polls. Yes, I do believe the mainstream media has an agenda and a narrative they have followed since November of 2016 in this instance, and other narratives prior to this Presidency they pushed. That is me. Your answer is you.

I don’t understand what you mean about “the media” when the media is a vast array of people, companies, and  organizations. 

 

How is it you see them  as one thing? 

5 minutes ago, {::'KayCeeS::} said:

 

Here's my question:

 

Trace the money upwards.  A super duper fractional amount of people own EVERYTHING.

 

So why wouldn't these people orchestrate their holdings?

 

 I mean, wouldn't you?

 

 

So you believe a few people own all the media? How do they control the narrative across all the media outlets, reporters and local media? 

 

Is Dr Fauci part of this conspiracy? 

[Backintheday544]

19 minutes ago, H2o said:

Thank you for the information my friend. A much appreciated reference and breakdown. There was a blue wave in the House, but the Republicans did manage to flip seats in the Senate. I believe that the House was more of the Dems focus in 2018 because they felt it was more vulnerable and did a lot more campaign work. We shall see in how it shakes out in 26 days. 

 

Based on the 2018 senate seats that were open, the Dems always had a hard time picking up seats. For 2020, the map is much more favorable. The Dems will lose Alabama though.

[{::'KayCeeS::}]

7 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

I don’t understand what you mean about “the media” when the media is a vast array of people, companies, and  organizations. 

 

How is it you see them  as one thing? 

So you believe a few people own all the media? How do they control the narrative across all the media outlets, reporters and local media? 

 

Is Dr Fauci part of this conspiracy? 

 

Yes.  Nothing to do with belief.  Just fact. 

[Tiberius]

3 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:

 

Based on the 2018 senate seats that were open, the Dems always had a hard time picking up seats. For 2020, the map is much more favorable. The Dems will lose Alabama though.

This is from Jennifer Rubin today: 

 

• Will Trump’s horrid poll numbers and especially appalling conduct in recent days depress the Republican vote, serving as a self-fulfilling prophecy of a blowout?
• Will Biden score wins deep into Republican territory where polls show him highly competitive (e.g., South Carolina, Georgia, Ohio and Texas)? If so, will this serve as a major realignment of the parties and the collapse of the Republican Party as we know it?
• How many Senate seats will Republicans lose? One can imagine that Democrats will lose Alabama but enjoy a double-digit pickup. The list of states in play for Democrats is long: Maine, Colorado, North Carolina and Arizona look like easy wins. Iowa, South Carolina, Montana, Alaska, two Georgia Senate seats and even Texas are competitive.
• How many Republicans will openly and dramatically break with Trump, going so far as to condemn his reckless behavior and racist rhetoric?
• Can Biden rack up enough clear wins early on election night to dissuade Republican efforts to disrupt or discredit the results?

Just now, {::'KayCeeS::} said:

 

Yes.  Nothing to do with belief.  Just fact. 

What facts? 

[{::'KayCeeS::}]

Just now, Tiberius said:

What facts? 

 

Just trace the money upwards.  But you're being dishonest.

 

That's okay.

[Tiberius]

3 minutes ago, {::'KayCeeS::} said:

 

Just trace the money upwards.  But you're being dishonest.

 

That's okay.

Lol, ya sure. Keep spreading your stupid lies. I just saw on the media that 13 garbage people were arrested for in Michigan, is that a lie? 

[SoTier]

3 hours ago, H2o said:

My questions are these:

 

Where do you actually believe that Trump has lost the votes he had in 2016, an election where he won easily?

If the MSM was lying through their teeth in 2016 about Hillary/Kaine then what actually leads you to believe they are not doing the same now with Biden/Harris?

Do you honestly, I mean honestly, believe that the "silent majority" is for Biden/Harris? 

 

Answer away my friends and fellow Bills fans. Everyone please try to keep it civil with your neighbors. 

 

 

 

 

Trump will lose the 2020 election because of his failure of leadership on the coronavirus.  Sorry, dude, but when Covid Donnie stands there and tells the American people that Covid-19 ain't no big deal and not to the it rule their lives, he's insulting the tens of millions of Americans whom Covid-19 has already devastated in one way or another.   He demonstrates that he doesn't give a damn about anybody or anything but himself.

 

Why do you assume that only the MSM lies?   Because it tells you stuff you don't like to hear?

 

Ummm ... isn't Covid Donnie the one thinking that he has a "silent majority" that is going to rise up before or on Election Day and save his fat ass from going down to defeat?

 

 

 

[Dub]

Good post H2o, 

I agree with just about all of your assertions. I always wonder about how much the MSM gets their narrative across to people and how many buy it. That is what gives me pause in my beliefs that he will be re-elcted. You're correct in wondering who he has legitimately lost. 

Women, if he didn't lose them last time most likely he's gained some this time.

If they've scared enough old people maybe he loses some of them. 

If you're smart enough to see where the economy was before covid you'll realize its a matter of time before it comes back.

Educated voters, lol 🤪 dummies on both sides to be fair.

New voters, young people are always supposed to come out and shake things up. Nevere really seem to show though. Maybe they will probably they won't.

Undecideds definitely seem to be as small as ever.

Polls do not seem to be accurate whatsoever nor were they last time.

Also heard about alot of #walkaway dems, Black and latino voters that are voting for him more than Republicans of the past. 

Then there are us who didn't trust or want to vote for him last time as Conservative/Republican/libertarians. 

I don't like to be over confident, 

I'm a Bills fan 

So we'll have to wait and see but I agree with and see your point H2o

Again good post !

[snafu]

4 hours ago, H2o said:

My questions are these:

 

Where do you actually believe that Trump has lost the votes he had in 2016, an election where he won easily?

If the MSM was lying through their teeth in 2016 about Hillary/Kaine then what actually leads you to believe they are not doing the same now with Biden/Harris?

Do you honestly, I mean honestly, believe that the "silent majority" is for Biden/Harris? 

 

I will go back and read the other responses, I'm sure that I'm likely repeating what others have said already.

 

(1) I don't think Trump has lost voters from his base.  Maybe picked up as many people who believe that he can do the job when they didn't believe it before 2016.  But he's probably lost as many voters who can't take his personality and think he blew it with his Covid-19 response.

(2) I don't think the MSM was lying in 2016 about Clinton.  I think everyone was completely on cruise control with Clinton as a shoo-in.

(3) I think Trump haters who didn't vote for Clinton in 2016 will vote for Biden in 2020.  Trump won't lose too many voters.  But Biden will pick up those complacent voters that didn't turn out for Clinton.  If Biden picks up enough in the swing states, then Biden wins. 

 

Feels to me like Trump "maxed out" his votes in 2016, and even if he repeats his numbers, there's a lot of people who sat on the sidelines in 2016 that regret it and won't make that mistake again.  It really depends on where those people live.

 

 

 

 

 

[H2o]

15 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Trump will lose the 2020 election because of his failure of leadership on the coronavirus.  Sorry, dude, but when Covid Donnie stands there and tells the American people that Covid-19 ain't no big deal and not to the it rule their lives, he's insulting the tens of millions of Americans whom Covid-19 has already devastated in one way or another.   He demonstrates that he doesn't give a damn about anybody or anything but himself.

 

Why do you assume that only the MSM lies?   Because it tells you stuff you don't like to hear?

 

Ummm ... isn't Covid Donnie the one thinking that he has a "silent majority" that is going to rise up before or on Election Day and save his fat ass from going down to defeat?

 

 

 

When Trump closed off the borders to China I seem to remember Pelosi walking through Chinatown telling everyone to come out because everything was fine. I remember Biden calling him xenophobic for doing so. I remember DeBlasio telling people to go out in the city and enjoy themselves, not to overreact or panic. After Trump's immediate virus response to the ventilator situation, and the supposed lack of hospital space in NY, he sent a Naval hospital. Cuomo and other Governors praised his response openly. They didn't even use it. Now all of these deaths are the fault of one man alone? Here is a link to a graph of the ever widening death rate vs recovery rate on worldometers https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#case-outcome . If you go to the CDC website https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm you can see the breakdown of deaths by age groups. y

You will see that almost 80% of the deaths have been age 65 or older. You think those numbers could have been a lot less if Governors like Cuomo, Northam, and others had not been dumping Covid positive people into the nursing homes to inflate the numbers? I know I surely do. If you're pretty healthy between the ages of 0-64 (and more than likely beyond that) then you basically have nothing to worry about according to the statistics themselves. The CDC also admitted that only 6% of the deaths attributed to Covid have been due to Covid alone as the only factor in death. The other 94% had serious pre-existing health conditions that were contributing factors in their death  https://www.wric.com/health/coronavirus/new-cdc-report-shows-94-of-covid-19-deaths-in-us-had-underlying-medical-conditions/?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=referral . The MSM does lie and they used fear mongering tactics on everyone else with this whole Covid thing. The hospitals in NY that were supposedly "war zones" were actually no worse than normal with absolutely no one waiting to get in from outside. There is video footage of this from people who actually went out there to see. The fake news about dumping of dead bodies into refrigerated trucks because they were dying at such a rapid rate. The image they showed of piling bodies into an unmarked, large, open gravesite (which is what they do with many of the city's homeless who pass because there is no one to pay for a burial). The fake news reports saying the video footage was from places in the US, but it was from hospitals overseas. They got caught. Oh yeah, they apologized about that, BUT turned right back around and did it again. Talking about Covid. Car wreck? Died from Covid. A guy with a BAC of .55 they attributed to Covid when it was clearly alcohol poisoning. The goat and paw-paw fruit in Africa that came back Covid+. People who have left hospitals or doctors offices because they are tired of waiting without being tested get back letters telling them they are Covid+ because they still filled out the initial paperwork. Really? Then you have the rest of this mess. Pushing the race baiting agendas by attempting to make martyrs out of criminals. The riots, oh, those are a myth. Antifa isn't real. Reporting these are mostly peaceful protests while standing in front of a car dealership burning to the ground or other buildings burning to the ground. Seeing the riots in Portland every night for basically 4 months now and how it's been reported. The Seattle CHAZ/CHOP/whatever situation and how it was reported. Minnesota, Atlanta, NY, Baltimore, and the list could go on. The Russian hoax, but Hunter's cool to get 3.5 mill from the Russians. The Ukraine hoax, but nothing on Joe's ACTUAL Quid Pro Quo phone call which had a tape released. The reporting on Kavenaugh and the "MeToo" movement, but the blind eye to Biden's sexual assault allegations which were documented LOOOOONG ago with live TV clips. Kamala calling Joe a segregationist and saying she believed his accuser, but is now his running mate so it's all water under the bridge. Giving a platform to Marxist organizations, domestic terrorists, and those with known Socialist agendas. You have actual Congress members on National television calling for unrest and violence, but they're not called out about it then blaming Trump for the unrest. All of this is unchecked and unhindered. You have Antifa members and other clowns purposely starting fires everywhere, but the Speaker of the House and the Gov. of Cali are coming out being given a platform to blame it on "climate change". There are NUMEROUS local news reports from those areas of arrests made where these individuals have actually been caught in the act or with the means and intention to do so. I mean really?  You can't make this up. Have you seen Biden's interview on The View? They were basically giving him an open platform in front of women to try to make amends for all of his fondling and sniffing, but he couldn't even get that right. The only thing you'll see or hear on the msm is "orange man bad". No my friend, it has nothing to do with what I "like" or "don't like". It has everything to do with the actual truth in situations, their proven unreliability, double standards, and their pushed propaganda. Something changed in the late 90's early 2000's with the msm. I used to watch CNN all the time back then because it was my favorite news network. Now I can't stomach any of them. And please, read this without trying to put a tone behind my words because I am as calm as I can be typing this. Just stating what I see and feel in general.   Like I said before in a previous post, 26 days and we'll see how this all sorts out. No matter what happens, and how the chips may fall, it can't get here soon enough for my liking. 

Edited October 9, 2020 by H2o

[shoshin]

Texas in play too? Texas?!?

 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

If the Democrats had run anyone but Clinton in 16 they win.  They win this year because women, especially middle class suburban women, are leaving Trump.  And I can tell you that based on living in a Republican district and talking to women who refuse to vote for the man.  They do not buy his attempt at trying to create hysteria in the suburbs.  He also is losing folks like me, older white men with college educations.  His mismanagement of the Covid situation puts the elderly at risk, and the insults and irrational rants make folks like me convinced he is incapable of running the country.

 

I didn't vote for either in 16, I voted for Johnson and Weld.  But frankly I would vote for a ham sandwich if it was running against Trump this year.  I do so because I want our constitutional form of government to continue to exist.  When Trump says he can do anything he wants under the Constitution, when he says he takes no responsibility for a pandemic that has killed over 200k citizens (and we know from his own words with Woodward that he knew about the dangers), he disqualifies himself from occupying the office.  There will be policies under a Biden admin I will strongly disagree with, but we will still have the government framed by our Constitution vs. the autocracy Trump wants.  And that is what this election should be about.

 

And from talking with folks like me, same demographic, many feel the same way.

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

If the Democrats had run anyone but Clinton in 16 they win.  They win this year because women, especially middle class suburban women, are leaving Trump.  And I can tell you that based on living in a Republican district and talking to women who refuse to vote for the man.  They do not buy his attempt at trying to create hysteria in the suburbs.  He also is losing folks like me, older white men with college educations.  His mismanagement of the Covid situation puts the elderly at risk, and the insults and irrational rants make folks like me convinced he is incapable of running the country.

 

I didn't vote for either in 16, I voted for Johnson and Weld.  But frankly I would vote for a ham sandwich if it was running against Trump this year.  I do so because I want our constitutional form of government to continue to exist.  When Trump says he can do anything he wants under the Constitution, when he says he takes no responsibility for a pandemic that has killed over 200k citizens (and we know from his own words with Woodward that he knew about the dangers), he disqualifies himself from occupying the office.  There will be policies under a Biden admin I will strongly disagree with, but we will still have the government framed by our Constitution vs. the autocracy Trump wants.  And that is what this election should be about.

 

And from talking with folks like me, same demographic, many feel the same way.

I hate to tell you but you’re about to lose the constitution you’re voting to uphold. Living in California I can tell you that the Democrats are after one thing: one party rule. God help us all.

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

I hate to tell you but you’re about to lose the constitution you’re voting to uphold. Living in California I can tell you that the Democrats are after one thing: one party rule. God help us all.

I hate to tell you but Biden will not try to become a dictator.  And if he did I would fight it.

 

I am an Independent.  I have voted for many Republicans.  I’m voting for Holcomb for governor here in Indiana because he has done a fine job.  But anyone who believes Trump is anywhere near qualified to hold the highest office in this land, who believes he should have the power to have his finger on the nuclear button,  really needs to step back and think.

 

I’d love for the Republican Party to get back to actually being Republican.  They’d have my vote.

[H2o]

36 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I hate to tell you but Biden will not try to become a dictator.  And if he did I would fight it.

 

I am an Independent.  I have voted for many Republicans.  I’m voting for Holcomb for governor here in Indiana because he has done a fine job.  But anyone who believes Trump is anywhere near qualified to hold the highest office in this land, who believes he should have the power to have his finger on the nuclear button,  really needs to step back and think.

 

I’d love for the Republican Party to get back to actually being Republican.  They’d have my vote.

I appreciate your thoughts and opinions my friend. We differ in how we see things as far as Trump and Biden go. Trump is a political outsider who was already rich when he obtained the office so he can't be bought, not like these career politicians who have turned their Office into a cash cow. He's not trying to be a dictator, he's trying to get everything turned back over to the people. He has fought tooth and nail against the rest of the corrupt politicians since the night he received enough Electoral votes to become POTUS. He had no peaceful transition, he was given no chance to just do his job, and those same corrupt politicians (with the help of the corrupt mainstream media) have done nothing, but slander and throw accusation after accusation his way while trying absolutely everything within their power to remove him from office. Why? Because he's stopped all the backhanded transactions they were using to amass their personal fortunes and is bringing down their plots to bring us into a One World Government system under the rule of the same Globalist Elite who run the Central Banking system. Biden is a 47 year politician who has really accomplished nothing outside of the 1994 Crime Bill, a bill which basically targeted blacks in general. There are numerous videos of him making racist statements, his strange to say the least touching/fondling/sniffing of women or children, and many times he's not able to put a coherent conversation together. There are also multiple instances of corruption he's been involved in whether it be himself or tied in through his family. Everyone, including the MSM, is turning a blind eye to it. Why might that be? Is it because Trump is really their enemy and not the people's? Everything since he has been elected has shown me what the Dem party is about and that is "win at all costs" no matter those who get caught up in the wash. They don't care about the people, they care about power. The power to impose their wil, their policies, and enslave us all. They don't care about the Constitution, they want to change it to fit their agenda. There's a reason they want bigger government, heavier financial burdens placed on us all, and a disarmed populace. Biden would be nothing more than a puppet of those pushing this agenda. His "plans" are those dictated to him by the puppet masters pulling the strings. 

Edited October 9, 2020 by H2o