Kittle looking for a "Kittle Deal"

[Doc]

7 hours ago, aristocrat said:

if he continues the stats yes. but if he comes back to earth hes way overpaid. 

 

True.  He'll have to continue to put up good numbers.  I'm sure Waller is kicking himself for taking that deal seeing what Hooper and Henry got.  But that's the risk you take making a deal early, and it applies to both sides. 

 

5 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

What was the dropoff due to then----Jimmy G being the better QB?  That makes no sense.

 

My point isn't that Lynch would want Waller.  It's that he sees what Waller is making for similar production last year with their respective starting QBs.  He's not going to want to pay double for that...or even 50% more for the currently highest paid TE.  Why would he?  

 

Kittle is under contract for another year.  No need to back up the truck this year.  What if his production continues to decline with Jimmy G?  

 

I'm not sure why you keep harping on Kittle's stats with X, Y or Z QB or Waller's salary.  They have no bearing on anything.  What does is the fact that Kittle has the most yards by a TE in his first 3 seasons than any TE in history, and by a good margin.  And he's been paid as a 5th rounder for those 3 years.  That's all his agent cares about and if Lynch were silly enough to mention either, his agent would tell him to start them and say that Waller was a fool for taking that deal.  And if anything, Waller getting $7.5M after just 5 games into what turned out to be his only good season, while guys like Hooper and Henry getting $10.6M/year despite never having even caught 800 yards in a season, strengthens his argument even more to get Kittle a lot more than they got.

 

But yes, Kittle's under contract for another year.  Most likely he'll sit-out until he gets a new deal.  Just how much more than $11M/year he gets is the real question, but he's getting paid.  And there's a good argument for paying him more like a WR than a TE.

Edited June 1, 2020 by Doc

[billsfan89]

49 minutes ago, Billl said:

Great TEs are possibly the rarest commodities in the NFL.  There were  literally 2 in the league last year.  Both were in the Super Bowl.

 

And in 2018 and 2017 the Superbowl featured high end tight ends. Gronkowski in 2018 and Gronkowski and Ertz 2017. It's a position that presents a huge advantage.

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

2 less games and 29 less targets.  The addition of Deebo and Sanders.  An improved and successful running game.  Many reasons.

 

Which is the exact reason why it doesn’t mean a dam thing that the talks between the two are so far off.  It doesn’t mean they aren’t interested or that they don’t think he deserves a massive raise. It’s because they don’t have to right now.  He will get paid.  Way more than 10.5 per

 

Add in the YPG for the extra 2 games and he still comes up short.

 

And as you point out, with more weapons, Kittle gets fewer touches and thus becomes less valuable as a receiver....

 

 

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

True.  He'll have to continue to put up good numbers.  I'm sure Waller is kicking himself for taking that deal seeing what Hooper and Henry got.  But that's the risk you take making a deal early, and it applies to both sides. 

 

 

I'm not sure why you keep harping on Kittle's stats with X, Y or Z QB or Waller's salary.  They have no bearing on anything.  What does is the fact that Kittle has the most yards by a TE in his first 3 seasons than any TE in history, and by a good margin.  And he's been paid as a 5th rounder for those 3 years.  That's all his agent cares about and if Lynch were silly enough to mention either, his agent would tell him to start them and say that Waller was a fool for taking that deal.  And if anything, Waller getting $7.5M after just 5 games into what turned out to be his only good season, while guys like Hooper and Henry getting $10.6M/year despite never having even caught 800 yards in a season, strengthens his argument even more to get Kittle a lot more than they got.

 

But yes, Kittle's under contract for another year.  Most likely he'll sit-out until he gets a new deal.  Just how much more than $11M/year he gets is the real question, but he's getting paid.  And there's a good argument for paying him more like a WR than a TE.

 

Exactly why Lynch will have a wait and see attitude.  HE's "paid as a 5th rounder" because he's under his rookie contract.  That's how it works.,

 

And you keep "harping on" Henry getting 10.6 M a year---he's on the tag getting that money for one year.  Why even mention it?  Obviously the Chargers don't want to pay him either.

 

Kittle has had 1 great and 1 very good season.  49ers aren't going to pay 50% over current max for that this year. 

 

Gronk had only 300 fewer yards (in 3 fewer total games--not a huge margin) in his 1st years.....and more than 3 timers as many TDs ( a whopping 38 v. 12).  That scoring threat would absolutely be worth the 50% premium.  Kittle isn't that.

 

 

2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

And in 2018 and 2017 the Superbowl featured high end tight ends. Gronkowski in 2018 and Gronkowski and Ertz 2017. It's a position that presents a huge advantage.

 

 

That's the truth.  Bills have never understood this.

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Add in the YPG for the extra 2 games and he still comes up short.

 

And as you point out, with more weapons, Kittle gets fewer touches and thus becomes less valuable as a receiver....

 

 

 

Exactly why Lynch will have a wait and see attitude.  HE's "paid as a 5th rounder" because he's under his rookie contract.  That's how it works.,

 

And you keep "harping on" Henry getting 10.6 M a year---he's on the tag getting that money for one year.  Why even mention it?  Obviously the Chargers don't want to pay him either.

 

Kittle has had 1 great and 1 very good season.  49ers aren't going to pay 50% over current max for that this year. 

 

Gronk had only 300 fewer yards (in 3 fewer total games--not a huge margin) in his 1st years.....and more than 3 timers as many TDs ( a whopping 38 v. 12).  That scoring threat would absolutely be worth the 50% premium.  Kittle isn't that.

 

 

 

 

That's the truth.  Bills have never understood this.

Whatever you say.  
 

someone will pay him around 15 mill a year.

[Mr. WEO]

6 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Whatever you say.  
 

someone will pay him around 15 mill a year.

 

Anything's possible.

[Doc]

20 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Exactly why Lynch will have a wait and see attitude.  HE's "paid as a 5th rounder" because he's under his rookie contract.  That's how it works.,

 

And you keep "harping on" Henry getting 10.6 M a year---he's on the tag getting that money for one year.  Why even mention it?  Obviously the Chargers don't want to pay him either.

 

Kittle has had 1 great and 1 very good season.  49ers aren't going to pay 50% over current max for that this year. 

 

Gronk had only 300 fewer yards (in 3 fewer total games--not a huge margin) in his 1st years.....and more than 3 timers as many TDs ( a whopping 38 v. 12).  That scoring threat would absolutely be worth the 50% premium.  Kittle isn't that.

 

Kittle's sorely out-produced his 5th round rookie contract.  Hence wanting to cash-in ASAP.  Maybe even sitting-out if need be.  That's how it works as well.

 

Henry got the tag.  Unless they workout a long-term deal for less per year, he's getting $10.6M for the year.  Not hard to figure out why I keep mentioning him.

 

And great for Goonkowski.  The pay for all players has increased dramatically since he entered the league. 

[Mr. WEO]

9 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Kittle's sorely out-produced his 5th round rookie contract.  Hence wanting to cash-in ASAP.  Maybe even sitting-out if need be.  That's how it works as well.

 

Henry got the tag.  Unless they workout a long-term deal for less per year, he's getting $10.6M for the year.  Not hard to figure out why I keep mentioning him.

 

And great for Goonkowski.  The pay for all players has increased dramatically since he entered the league. 

 

 

That's hardly the topic of discussion.  The sky is blue as well...

 

The topic is whether Kittle will be paid like a top WR.

 

Henry you keep mentioning as getting "10.6 per year" as though, like Hooper has (and Kittle seeks),  he has a new deal.  He doesn't.  He jus getting the mandatory amount the Chargers have to pay him for one year.  He doesn't belong in this discussion---other than as a comparison as to how the 49ers are likely to approach kittle's demands.

 

If Kittle was averaging 12 TDs a year  instead of having 12 career TDs, the 49ers would be running to his agent's office to give him more than 15M a year.

[NewEra]

13 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

That's hardly the topic of discussion.  The sky is blue as well...

 

The topic is whether Kittle will be paid like a top WR.

 

Henry you keep mentioning as getting "10.6 per year" as though, like Hooper has (and Kittle seeks),  he has a new deal.  He doesn't.  He jus getting the mandatory amount the Chargers have to pay him for one year.  He doesn't belong in this discussion---other than as a comparison as to how the 49ers are likely to approach kittle's demands.

 

If Kittle was averaging 12 TDs a year  instead of having 12 career TDs, the 49ers would be running to his agent's office to give him more than 15M a year.

I don’t think that that’s the topic at all.  I see the topic is more along the lines of, “how much is “Kittle Deal” going to be?”.  I don’t think anyone foresees him getting 20 mill a year (although AJ Hawk said on PMI today that he thought Kittle would get 20 million a year). 
 

You’ve stated that lynch isn’t going to pay him 15-16 mill a year.  Just wait and see.  Not much else to argue about.

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

I don’t think that that’s the topic at all.  I see the topic is more along the lines of, “how much is “Kittle Deal” going to be?”.  I don’t think anyone foresees him getting 20 mill a year (although AJ Hawk said on PMI today that he thought Kittle would get 20 million a year). 
 

You’ve stated that lynch isn’t going to pay him 15-16 mill a year.  Just wait and see.  Not much else to argue about.

 

 

It is, actually.   Scroll back.

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

That's hardly the topic of discussion.  The sky is blue as well...

 

The topic is whether Kittle will be paid like a top WR.

 

Henry you keep mentioning as getting "10.6 per year" as though, like Hooper has (and Kittle seeks),  he has a new deal.  He doesn't.  He jus getting the mandatory amount the Chargers have to pay him for one year.  He doesn't belong in this discussion---other than as a comparison as to how the 49ers are likely to approach kittle's demands.

 

If Kittle was averaging 12 TDs a year  instead of having 12 career TDs, the 49ers would be running to his agent's office to give him more than 15M a year.

 

Actually, it's THE topic of discussion.   Most players, even if 1sts round picks, will look to get huge new deals if they become one of the best at their positions within the 1st 3 seasons.

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

It is, actually.   Scroll back.

It’s has been discussed.  Being paid like the top WR in the league isn’t the topic imo

[Mr. WEO]

3 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Actually, it's THE topic of discussion.   Most players, even if 1sts round picks, will look to get huge new deals if they become one of the best at their positions within the 1st 3 seasons.

 

No one is arguing that Kittle isn't sorely outproducing 5th round rookie contract"....so, again, why even mention this?  No one is saying otherwise, so it's not the topic anyone is discussing, doc.

 

No one's arguing against the bolded part of this post above either, Dr. Strawman.

Just now, NewEra said:

It’s has been discussed.  Being paid like the top WR in the league isn’t the topic imo

 

 

It was what I was responding to several pages ago (should he paid like a top WR, not a TE--or as a "hybrid", which is a nonentity).  Maybe you are discussing something else.

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Add in the YPG for the extra 2 games and he still comes up short.

 

And as you point out, with more weapons, Kittle gets fewer touches and thus becomes less valuable as a receiver....

 

 

 

Exactly why Lynch will have a wait and see attitude.  HE's "paid as a 5th rounder" because he's under his rookie contract.  That's how it works.,

 

And you keep "harping on" Henry getting 10.6 M a year---he's on the tag getting that money for one year.  Why even mention it?  Obviously the Chargers don't want to pay him either.

 

Kittle has had 1 great and 1 very good season.  49ers aren't going to pay 50% over current max for that this year. 

 

Gronk had only 300 fewer yards (in 3 fewer total games--not a huge margin) in his 1st years.....and more than 3 timers as many TDs ( a whopping 38 v. 12).  That scoring threat would absolutely be worth the 50% premium.  Kittle isn't that.

 

 

Kittle didn't have prime Tom Brady throwing to him like Gronk did. Jimmy G was hurt in 2018 when he put up monster numbers and even in 2019 I wouldn't exactly call Jimmy G a world beater and Kittle put up an elite season. So the TD numbers are a bit circumstantial and not relevant to his ability. Toss in that like Gronk Kittle is dam good blocker and I think Kittle has solidified himself as an elite TE these past two seasons (and he wasn't too shabby for a rookie.) I think if Kittle wants a deal bordering on 20 million per-season with a hefty guarantee I think he has to put up another very good to great season and fully leverage his status. 

 

But the 49ers should be willing to offer a deal above 15 million if Kittle doesn't want to take the injury risk. So while I get Lynch waiting if Kittle won't accept a deal closer to 15 million than 20 million but Lynch should be willing to offer a max extension around the 15 million aav range. Let Kittle decide his level of risk but certainly show they are willing to take care of him he just won't get all that he wants if he takes the sure thing early. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Kittle didn't have prime Tom Brady throwing to him like Gronk did. Jimmy G was hurt in 2018 when he put up monster numbers and even in 2019 I wouldn't exactly call Jimmy G a world beater and Kittle put up an elite season. So the TD numbers are a bit circumstantial and not relevant to his ability. Toss in that like Gronk Kittle is dam good blocker and I think Kittle has solidified himself as an elite TE these past two seasons (and he wasn't too shabby for a rookie.) I think if Kittle wants a deal bordering on 20 million per-season with a hefty guarantee I think he has to put up another very good to great season and fully leverage his status. 

 

But the 49ers should be willing to offer a deal above 15 million if Kittle doesn't want to take the injury risk. So while I get Lynch waiting if Kittle won't accept a deal closer to 15 million than 20 million but Lynch should be willing to offer a max extension around the 15 million aav range. Let Kittle decide his level of risk but certainly show they are willing to take care of him he just won't get all that he wants if he takes the sure thing early. 

 

 

Again, no one is saying Kittle isn't an elite TE....

 

15 million would blow out the current TE market by 50%.  There is NO position in the NFL where a player has been offered 50% more than the previously (and recently signed) highest paid  player at that position.

 

Why would Lynch want to do that--especially now?

[billsfan89]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Again, no one is saying Kittle isn't an elite TE....

 

15 million would blow out the current TE market by 50%.  There is NO position in the NFL where a player has been offered 50% more than the previously (and recently signed) highest paid  player at that position.

 

Why would Lynch want to do that--especially now?

 

Because if Kittle hits the open market in 2021 after posting another strong season some other team will easily offer an elite TE close to 20 million per-year. Travis Kelce being underpaid and there not being another elite TE on the market doesn't deflate Kittle's market. Kittle is a much better TE than Hooper who got 10 million aav. So if I am Lynch I offer about 15 million as my offer as a means to get Kittle under his market value. I don't offer 18+ million because that's his best range, but 15ish million offers him security and you a discount. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Because if Kittle hits the open market in 2021 after posting another strong season some other team will easily offer an elite TE close to 20 million per-year. Travis Kelce being underpaid and there not being another elite TE on the market doesn't deflate Kittle's market. Kittle is a much better TE than Hooper who got 10 million aav. So if I am Lynch I offer about 15 million as my offer as a means to get Kittle under his market value. I don't offer 18+ million because that's his best range, but 15ish million offers him security and you a discount. 

lol no one is offering a TE 20M next year.  Just stop with that.  Michael Thomas,  an actual elite WR wasn’t offered that.

 

these takes.....so much heat!!

[Doc]

31 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

No one is arguing that Kittle isn't sorely outproducing 5th round rookie contract"....so, again, why even mention this?  No one is saying otherwise, so it's not the topic anyone is discussing, doc.

 

No one's arguing against the bolded part of this post above either, Dr. Strawman.

 

And all you're saying, repeatedly, is that Lynch wants to pay Kittle as little as he possibly possible can (yeah, ya think?) using weak arguments as to why he shouldn't have to give him a decent pay raise over the currently highest-paid TEs.  Waller and Goon don't amount to a hill of beans when Henry and Hooper are making $10.5M and neither has broken 787 yards in a season yet, much less almost 1,400.  Therefore Kittle has a claim to being paid a lot more than them.  Lynch doesn't have to pay it.  In which case Kittle can sit out or play out his contract and then the 49'ers can franchise him and sit out again and so on.

 

[Mr. WEO]

10 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

And all you're saying, repeatedly, is that Lynch wants to pay Kittle as little as he possibly possible can (yeah, ya think?) using weak arguments as to why he shouldn't have to give him a decent pay raise over the currently highest-paid TEs.  Waller and Goon don't amount to a hill of beans when Henry and Hooper are making $10.5M and neither has broken 787 yards in a season yet, much less almost 1,400.  Therefore Kittle has a claim to being paid a lot more than them.  Lynch doesn't have to pay it.  In which case Kittle can sit out or play out his contract and then the 49'ers can franchise him and sit out again and so on.

 

 

 

As I said.... 

 

None of what you say adds up to an unprecedented NFL position bump of 50% in a year...that's not "a decent pay raise" anywhere, doc.

 

 

 

 

[Doc]

10 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

As I said.... 

 

None of what you say adds up to an unprecedented NFL position bump of 50% in a year...that's not "a decent pay raise" anywhere, doc.

 

If you/Lynch is worried about the position bump, just split the difference for TE and WR and pay him that, citing a special circumstance. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

If you/Lynch is worried about the position bump, just split the difference for TE and WR and pay him that, citing a special circumstance. 

 

he knows he doesn't have to

[Doc]

28 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

he knows he doesn't have to

 

True.  And Kittle doesn't have to play until week 8 and potentially wreck their chances at returning to the SB.

[Mr. WEO]

20 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

True.  And Kittle doesn't have to play until week 8 and potentially wreck their chances at returning to the SB.

 

That should improve his value...

 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

lol no one is offering a TE 20M next year.  Just stop with that.  Michael Thomas,  an actual elite WR wasn’t offered that.

 

these takes.....so much heat!!

 

Michael Thomas's deal was 5 years 100 million exactly 20 million on the dot. I think Kittle could with another very good season could easily command 18 million aav. TE's that can block at an elite, be versatile in other components of the game, and haul in 1000 plus yards a season in the receiving game are rare and hard to find. Kittle is as valuable to the 49ers offense as Thomas is to the Saints offense. 

[Mr. WEO]

6 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Michael Thomas's deal was 5 years 100 million exactly 20 million on the dot. I think Kittle could with another very good season could easily command 18 million aav. TE's that can block at an elite, be versatile in other components of the game, and haul in 1000 plus yards a season in the receiving game are rare and hard to find. Kittle is as valuable to the 49ers offense as Thomas is to the Saints offense. 

 

Thomas got 5 years 96.25M per sportrac.com.

 

49ers are a run 1st team and a mediocre passing team.  Kittle catching a bunch of 5 yard passes and getting 6  more YAC isn't worth top WR money.

 

There are only 5 WR getting annual average of 18M or higher:  Jones, Cooper, Thomas, OBJ and Hill.  "1000 plus yards" this year will never put Kittle in that earning group.

 

No team is going to pay any TE 18M....because that's not what they cost.  Ask the Saints who they would rather have for 18-19 M a year, Thomas or Kittle.  I bet they would rather have Thomas at his current contract than Kittle at 11M a year.

 

At some point Kittle can easily be the best paid TE in the NFL (unless his output drops off this year).  He's not going to get 18M.

 

 

 

[Doc]

15 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Thomas got 5 years 96.25M per sportrac.com.

 

49ers are a run 1st team and a mediocre passing team.  Kittle catching a bunch of 5 yard passes and getting 6  more YAC isn't worth top WR money.

 

There are only 5 WR getting annual average of 18M or higher:  Jones, Cooper, Thomas, OBJ and Hill.  "1000 plus yards" this year will never put Kittle in that earning group.

 

No team is going to pay any TE 18M....because that's not what they cost.  Ask the Saints who they would rather have for 18-19 M a year, Thomas or Kittle.  I bet they would rather have Thomas at his current contract than Kittle at 11M a year.

 

At some point Kittle can easily be the best paid TE in the NFL (unless his output drops off this year).  He's not going to get 18M.

 

This makes no sense.  Kittle averaged more yards per reception (12.4) than Thomas (11.6).  That he did what he did in limited opportunities because, as you said, the 49'ers are a run-first team, is even more impressive and points-out how important he is to the team.

 

And I'm not sure where you got that a) he caught 5 yard passes and got 6 more yards or b) anyone is saying he's worth $20M/year.

[NoSaint]

7 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Michael Thomas's deal was 5 years 100 million exactly 20 million on the dot. I think Kittle could with another very good season could easily command 18 million aav. TE's that can block at an elite, be versatile in other components of the game, and haul in 1000 plus yards a season in the receiving game are rare and hard to find. Kittle is as valuable to the 49ers offense as Thomas is to the Saints offense. 

the niners wouldn’t pause for even a second on which they’d take at $20m... and the answer isn’t kittle.

Edited June 2, 2020 by NoSaint

[Mr. WEO]

13 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Because if Kittle hits the open market in 2021 after posting another strong season some other team will easily offer an elite TE close to 20 million per-year. Travis Kelce being underpaid and there not being another elite TE on the market doesn't deflate Kittle's market. Kittle is a much better TE than Hooper who got 10 million aav. So if I am Lynch I offer about 15 million as my offer as a means to get Kittle under his market value. I don't offer 18+ million because that's his best range, but 15ish million offers him security and you a discount. 

 

53 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

This makes no sense.  Kittle averaged more yards per reception (12.4) than Thomas (11.6).  That he did what he did in limited opportunities because, as you said, the 49'ers are a run-first team, is even more impressive and points-out how important he is to the team.

 

And I'm not sure where you got that a) he caught 5 yard passes and got 6 more yards or b) anyone is saying he's worth $20M/year.

 

18M, 20M.  All equally ridiculous.

 

Sanders and Samuel will take even more targets away from Kittle next year.  Kittle had a monster 2018 because the backup QBs dumped off to him a lot.  Jimmy G isn't going to do that--as we saw in 2019.  Deebo Samuel simply showed up and got 800 yards receiving--and almost 1000 yards total offense and 6 TDs.  

 

He's a top TE, but this isn't Mahomes to Kelce.  His output as a receiver may decrease further this year--even as they become more of a passing team, given the output of Samuel/Sanders/Bourne.  They can't pay him like a top 5 WR. 

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

18M, 20M.  All equally ridiculous.

 

Sanders and Samuel will take even more targets away from Kittle next year.  Kittle had a monster 2018 because the backup QBs dumped off to him a lot.  Jimmy G isn't going to do that--as we saw in 2019.  Deebo Samuel simply showed up and got 800 yards receiving--and almost 1000 yards total offense and 6 TDs.  

 

He's a top TE, but this isn't Mahomes to Kelce.  His output as a receiver may decrease further this year--even as they become more of a passing team, given the output of Samuel/Sanders/Bourne.  They can't pay him like a top 5 WR. 

Kittle is the superstar on that office. His targets aren’t going to decrease much, if at all. 
 

And even if you were to say that at best he’ll get 75 yards per game with Jimmy G, again that’s 1200 yards per season and receivers who can produce that are getting $15 million a year.  If I’m his agent I start in the $18-$20 million range and then look to split the difference at around $14-15 million. 

[Mr. WEO]

19 minutes ago, Doc said:

Kittle is the superstar on that office. His targets aren’t going to decrease much, if at all. 
 

And even if you were to say that at best he’ll get 75 yards per game with Jimmy G, again that’s 1200 yards per season and receivers who can produce that are getting $15 million a year.  If I’m his agent I start in the $18-$20 million range and then look to split the difference at around $14-15 million. 

 

Already did, with Jimmy G/Samuel/Sanders.

 

The NFL doesn't pay TE's like WRs doc.  That was settled 5 years ago when the last one tried.  Graham was Kittle (or better--with 3900 yards and an insane 41 TDs in his first 4 seasons) and he made the same argument.  He lost arbitration to be classified as a WR.  

 

Hey why not start at 30M and split the difference at 18-20M?

 

 

Edited June 2, 2020 by Mr. WEO

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

Already did, with Jimmy G/Samuel/Sanders.

 

The NFL doesn't pay TE's like WRs doc.  That was settled 5 years ago when the last one tried.  Graham was Kittle (or better--with 3900 yards and an insane 41 TDs in his first 4 seasons) and he made the same argument.  He lost arbitration to be classified as a WR.  And no one offered him WR money.

 

Hey why not start at 30M and split the difference at 18-20M?

 

Why not $30B?  Come on, even you know why.

 

In 3 games at the beginning of 2018 Kittle averaged 75 yards/game with Jimmy G.  It didn't change last year.  He is and will be the focal point of that offense.

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, NoSaint said:

the niners wouldn’t pause for even a second on which they’d take at $20m... and the answer isn’t kittle.

 

It's not an apples to apples choice though, my only point in brining up the Thomas contract is that the market is set at 20 million aav for a top pass catcher. The 49ers don't have the choice between Thomas and Kittle they have the choice to either let Kittle walk or pay him against the market. Do you think that if Kittle has another 1000 yard season and is healthy that some team wouldn't pony up at least 17-18 million aav for him? Elite TE's are the hardest to find and one hitting the market in his prime is going to command a huge deal. 

[Chicken Boo]

On 5/31/2020 at 10:57 PM, NewEra said:

Well, that’s your opinion.  
 

I think Kittle is a better run blocker and “slightly more aggressive after the catch” is an understatement.  Kelce is great after the catch, but not nearly as aggressive (which was your choice of words).  Kittle is faster and incredible locker room guy.  Similar hands and route running.  Kelce has the best qb in the league while Kittle doesn’t even have a top 10 qb.  Doesn’t hurt that Kelce is playing with Tyreek Hill 

 

Kelce blocks as well as any tight end in football and was putting up numbers before Mahomes was even drafted and before Tyreek Hill became a factor.

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

18M, 20M.  All equally ridiculous.

 

Sanders and Samuel will take even more targets away from Kittle next year.  Kittle had a monster 2018 because the backup QBs dumped off to him a lot.  Jimmy G isn't going to do that--as we saw in 2019.  Deebo Samuel simply showed up and got 800 yards receiving--and almost 1000 yards total offense and 6 TDs.  

 

He's a top TE, but this isn't Mahomes to Kelce.  His output as a receiver may decrease further this year--even as they become more of a passing team, given the output of Samuel/Sanders/Bourne.  They can't pay him like a top 5 WR. 

 

In 2019 Kittle broke 1000 yards on an offense that was nursing leads late and running heavy (and Jimmy G is not an elite QB at this point.) If he has another similar season in 2020 he will along with his elite blocking skills and versatility to line up in the backfield or anywhere on the field have established 3 seasons worth of elite TE play before hitting the market at age 27. I could easily see another team ponying up around 18 million aav to get an elite dynamic piece that is rare. 

 

I would disagree that Samuel and their receivers are going to take away targets in any significant manner. Sanders is no longer there and while they did draft a WR in round 1 I think it will take at least a year or two for Alyuk to take away significant targets. I also think that if anything having Samuel and other better receiving options will only help Kittle pop bigger numbers as the attention is less on him. 

 

Travis Kelce signed his contract that pays him about 9-10 million a season before the 2016 season. When he signed that deal he was coming off of back to back 800+ yard seasons with 5 TD’s in each season. Even before Mahomes in 2018 he had out performed that deal and if he hit the open market today would see a greater than 50% raise from his current salary. Ask yourself this question if 2 years ago Kelce hit the open market what would he have commanded? I would say at least 15 million. Kelce’s deal being deflated doesn’t diminish market value. 

 

I think Kittle at this point is worth about 15 million aav easily. If he has another good season and is healthy he should command closer to 20 than 15 ( I would say 18). There aren’t many TE’s that can anchor a passing attack as a number one option and block at an elite level on the market. Hooper got 10+ million and he isn’t a very good blocker and is far from a TE able to anchor a passing attack. 

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Kelce blocks as well as any tight end in football and was putting up numbers before Mahomes was even drafted and before Tyreek Hill became a factor.

Of course he was.  He had Alex Smith, Andy reid and zero WRs to take targets away from him.  
 

kittle has the most receiving yards ever for a TE after 3 years.  He had Mullens and beathard throwing him the ball 2 years ago. Hoyer, beathard and jiimmy g(for 5 games) 3 years ago. 

 

he blocks as well as any TE not named Kittle.  
 

agree to disagree. I’ll take Kittle every day of the week

[Billl]

On 6/1/2020 at 7:08 AM, Teddy KGB said:

Give me Kittle > Kelce all day everyday.   

Hope those days aren’t during the playoffs.  
Kelce: 19 catches, 207 yards, 4 TDs, and 9.4 yards per target 

Kittle:  8 catches, 71 yards, 0 TDs, 5.5 yards per target

[billsfan89]

23 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Kelce blocks as well as any tight end in football and was putting up numbers before Mahomes was even drafted and before Tyreek Hill became a factor.

 

I think a big piece missing in this conversation is that there hasn't been a big TE to hit the market in many years. Gronk got a massive 6 year contract extension in 2012 season and was never at a point to get a second contract of significant length. Jimmy Graham signed his big deal back in 2014.  Travis Kelce signed a 5 year extension after the 2015 season when he had logged back to back 800 yard seasons, Zach Ertz signed a similar contract in January 2016 when his career high in yards was 800. Both have blossomed into elite TE’s. 

 

There just hasn’t been an elite TE to hit the market in a long time. Hooper and Henry are good top 10 TE’s but not special dynamic players at the position and they still got over 10 million. I think Kittle if he can cement his status with one more very good season resets a very warped market. If a Jimmy Graham or Gronk or Kelce type TE hit the market in the past 2-3 seasons we would be easily talking Kittle having to go above a 14-15 million dollar top contract instead of 10 million. 

8 minutes ago, Billl said:

Hope those days aren’t during the playoffs.  
Kelce: 19 catches, 207 yards, 4 TDs, and 9.4 yards per target 

Kittle:  8 catches, 71 yards, 0 TDs, 5.5 yards per target

 

The Niners threw the ball 19 times in the divisional round and 8 times in the NFC title game. I think that might have deflated Kittle's stats although in the SB when the Niners threw 31 times he only had 4 receptions for 36 yards. Both guys are elite TE's. One being underpaid doesn't deflate the others value nor would one being a smidge better.

Edited June 2, 2020 by billsfan89

[Virgil]

I never saw this as an 8 page thread.  It’s amazing what no live sports can do 

[Mr. WEO]

14 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

In 2019 Kittle broke 1000 yards on an offense that was nursing leads late and running heavy (and Jimmy G is not an elite QB at this point.) If he has another similar season in 2020 he will along with his elite blocking skills and versatility to line up in the backfield or anywhere on the field have established 3 seasons worth of elite TE play before hitting the market at age 27. I could easily see another team ponying up around 18 million aav to get an elite dynamic piece that is rare. 

 

I would disagree that Samuel and their receivers are going to take away targets in any significant manner. Sanders is no longer there and while they did draft a WR in round 1 I think it will take at least a year or two for Alyuk to take away significant targets. I also think that if anything having Samuel and other better receiving options will only help Kittle pop bigger numbers as the attention is less on him. 

 

Travis Kelce signed his contract that pays him about 9-10 million a season before the 2016 season. When he signed that deal he was coming off of back to back 800+ yard seasons with 5 TD’s in each season. Even before Mahomes in 2018 he had out performed that deal and if he hit the open market today would see a greater than 50% raise from his current salary. Ask yourself this question if 2 years ago Kelce hit the open market what would he have commanded? I would say at least 15 million. Kelce’s deal being deflated doesn’t diminish market value. 

 

I think Kittle at this point is worth about 15 million aav easily. If he has another good season and is healthy he should command closer to 20 than 15 ( I would say 18). There aren’t many TE’s that can anchor a passing attack as a number one option and block at an elite level on the market. Hooper got 10+ million and he isn’t a very good blocker and is far from a TE able to anchor a passing attack. 

 

Why would it take a year or two for the rookie WR to take away targets?  Samuel did it this past season no problem. 

 

What does Kittle do when he lines up in the backfield?

 

In 2016, Kelce signed for under 10M a year--that's less than what NO payed Graham.  Yet 2 years later he would have gotten 15M?  Did Graham get Larry Fitzgerald money after 3 years that were arguably at least as good as Kittle's?  no.  Show me any player in NFL history who "hit the open market" and got a 50% bump over the position max contract.

 

 

 

 

 

9 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Of course he was.  He had Alex Smith, Andy reid and zero WRs to take targets away from him.  
 

kittle has the most receiving yards ever for a TE after 3 years.  He had Mullens and beathard throwing him the ball 2 years ago. Hoyer, beathard and jiimmy g(for 5 games) 3 years ago. 

 

he blocks as well as any TE not named Kittle.  
 

agree to disagree. I’ll take Kittle every day of the week

 

Not  by much---Gronk and Graham were pretty close---and both had many more TDs than Kittle (not event close).  Kittle isn't a scorer.  Even in the Red Zone, Kendrick Bourne was their most effective receiving weapon.

 

If he's on the market net year, would the Bills pay 15-18 million for him?  If Kittle was also a significant Red Zone threat, I would say he might be worth 13-14M, which is a massive increase over the tag for TE.

 

[NewEra]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

 

Why would it take a year or two for the rookie WR to take away targets?  Samuel did it this past season no problem. 

 

What does Kittle do when he lines up in the backfield?

 

In 2016, Kelce signed for under 10M a year--that's less than what NO payed Graham.  Yet 2 years later he would have gotten 15M?  Did Graham get Larry Fitzgerald money after 3 years that were arguably at least as good as Kittle's?  no.  Show me any player in NFL history who "hit the open market" and got a 50% bump over the position max contract.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not  by much---Gronk and Graham were pretty close---and both had many more TDs than Kittle (not event close).  Kittle isn't a scorer.  Even in the Red Zone, Kendrick Bourne was their most effective receiving weapon.

 

If he's on the market net year, would the Bills pay 15-18 million for him?  If Kittle was also a significant Red Zone threat, I would say he might be worth 13-14M, which is a massive increase over the tag for TE.

 

Not by much......LOL.  
 

your motto:  can’t stop, won’t stop.

 

he HAS more yards than ANY TE in history after his first 3 years.....

 

not by much. You’re such a troll

[Mr. WEO]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Not by much......LOL.  
 

your motto:  can’t stop, won’t stop.

 

he HAS more yards than ANY TE in history after his first 3 years.....

 

not by much. You’re such a troll

 

So what?  Teams don't consider only that when valuing a player ("but is he the best in history for receiving yards for TEs after their first 3 years???  Yes?   Well then, how much should we write the check for?")---I mean, you're joking right?   It's not a point worth making for the actual difference.  

 

Kittle:  2945 yards, 12 TDs

 

Gronk:  2663 yards, 38 TDs

 

Graham: 2648 yards, 25 TDs (for good measure, he had 1215 yards/16 TDs the next year---and STILL didn't get paid like a top WR)

 

Mike Evans, an actual WR, is the ONLY WR one IN history to HAVE 1000 yards in the first 5 years of his career......and HE didn't get 18 million in his recent contract extension.