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Erie County/Upstate New York Covid-19 Response (was: Erie Co Declares State of Emergency


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8 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

No surprise there

I know teachers are still getting paid but does anybody know what happens to the kitchen staff, cleaning staff, bus drivers, teaching aids, etc...?

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1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

I know teachers are still getting paid but does anybody know what happens to the kitchen staff, cleaning staff, bus drivers, teaching aids, etc...?

I always said this is really a labor issue.

 

Lot of the places like drive thrus, etc... Do they really want to open back up?  They are still rolling in dough.  Do the schools really want the overhead.  Stay at home, learn via remote... All save a bundle. 

 

Just work a skeleton crew and run them ragged.

 

Slow march to total automation...

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2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I know teachers are still getting paid but does anybody know what happens to the kitchen staff, cleaning staff, bus drivers, teaching aids, etc...?

 

In VA it varies per school system. 

 

In Fairfax County School Systems they are inadequately covered by unions and while I know county discussed breaking contract (although not one for teachers) they decided to honor contract and pay thru end of year with managers required to work Fridays from home to ensure timecards are done.  They made a mistake however and forgot to account for personnel to prepare food for free and reduced meals which they are still preparing and tried to lure some back with incentives working in central kitchen which personnel are disinclined to do.

 

Janitorial staff are usually still employed and working since they have 12 month contracts. 

 

If schools are closed in fall except for elementary schools as some are recommending staying with online classes only I am sure they will not be paid for kitchen staff is usually first to have benefits cut / cost of living raises cut / reduced.  Union is saying Fairfax County may not rehire old food service workers because they could break ability for many employees to get pensions that way.

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https://wbfo.drupal.publicbroadcasting.net/post/wanted-new-york-thousands-covid-19-contact-tracers

 

NY is looking for up to 17,000 contact tracers.

 

details if you’re interested:

 

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/get-involved-how-you-can-help

 

you would be working from home from what I understand. I heard the pay is alright too (but haven’t confirmed that).

Edited by BillsFan4
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https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/statement-secretary-governor-melissa-derosa-ny-pause-executive-order?fbclid=IwAR15A0tpADfBCxsaM1iNfTovOEdSWI5jcjciYKXCpTrIJQb3Mzt4GhmN_uA

 

"NY ON PAUSE was not extended to June 6.

"Yesterday's Executive Order extended the underlying legal authority for the Emergency Order, but did not change the text of any of the directives in NY ON PAUSE and so the expiration date of May 15 still stands until further notice. At that time, new guidance will be issued for regions based on the metrics outlined by Governor Cuomo earlier this week."

 

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I am seeing some misunderstanding already on this reopening in NY (not here, in real life). 

 

Not all of NYS is in phase one. Counties that meet the gating criteria can move into phase one starting May 15th. Check your local county to see if it meets the criteria. If you are unsure call your county executive or health department.

 

And once we start opening, it’s going to be on us citizens to help monitor if businesses/employers are following guidelines. They can’t just reopen like normal.

 

They have to follow phase 1 criteria. If you’re concerned they’re not, talk to your boss or the business owner/manager. If all else fails you can report them to the county or N.Y. labor.

 

We have not beat this virus by any means. We’re going to have to be more vigilant than ever as we reopen, otherwise case numbers will spike and we’ll be back on lockdown. Nobody wants that. 

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7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

So what's up with WNY not meeting the criteria for decline in hospitalizations and decline in hospital deaths?

Anyone know?

From wgrz.  We're behind in two of the seven categories.  We're getting there as far as hospital deaths.  Progress still needs to be made on decline in hospitalizations.

 

One category requires a 14-day decline in net hospitalizations (the Western region currently stands at 0), or having less than 15 new hospitalizations on average over three days, and right now our average is 28.

 

The other metric we're not meeting is a 14-day decline in hospital deaths (we've only four days right now), or fewer than five hospital deaths on average over three days, and right now we average nine deaths per day.

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8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

So what's up with WNY not meeting the criteria for decline in hospitalizations and decline in hospital deaths?

Anyone know?

It makes me wonder how many are taking this thing serious around here. 

 

Personally, Ive seen multiple neighbors on my street gathering in large groups quite frequently. I’ve even seen multiple neighbors have big parties - for Easter, mother’s day. A couple had birthday parties. One house on mother’s day must have had about 10 cars parked out in the street. Even the ones that say they’re  “taking it serious”, like my neighbor a few doors down with CODP, aren’t really taking it serious. Like, for her birthday a couple weeks ago her family did one of those car parades. Has to be about 7 cars. They drive by, honk. Circle around, then about 1/2 of the cars park in front of her house. They get out of the car, go right up to my neighbor and they all start HUGGING HER. No masks on anyone. Same thing on mother’s day. I was left wondering what the point of the car parade even was...lol. There’s 2 houses in particular, one right next door and the other a few doors down, that constantly have people over. Like, almost every day. My neighbor on the other side just had about 5 people over when the weather was nice last week. They all hung out shoulder to shoulder in his yard drinking beers. Then when it cooled off they all crowded into his small shed and hung out there all night.

 

Went to watch the fly over at the park near my house 2 days ago. It was absolutely packed. I couldn’t even find a spot to park. I’d say maybe 1/2 (or less) were wearing masks or tying to social distance. It’s not the 1st time I went to walk in that park and there were lots of people crowding together. I’ve drove by restaurants and seen crowds standing outside waiting for food (with very little mask wearing and social distancing). I see many people in public without masks. Many who don’t social distance. I’ve had people standing 

 

Most of my friends I talk to are out and about almost every day. 

 

I think I told you about my friend who told me how serious he was taking this, then tells me how he’s running to the stores every day (no mask). He’s having groups of friends over for card parties (but he wore gloves! ?‍♂️ and had just come back from picking his sister up at the airport...). 

 

Maybe this is just my experience though? I know that many around here are following the guidelines. Maybe it’s just my neighborhood... lol

 

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....death penalty works for me.......SMH.........

 

Fake COVID-19 tests seized by US Customs and Border Patrol in Rochester

Charles Molineaux-WHEC
Updated: May 05, 2020 11:09 PM
Created: May 05, 2020 10:43 PM

 

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WHEC) — U.S. Customs and Border Patrol agents report they’ve been discovering hundreds of counterfeit tests for coronavirus being shipped through Greater Rochester International Airport, part of a broad unethical market seeking to exploit a frightened public.

 

“They are not approved and they are attempted to be sold on the black market,” Aaron Bowker with the U.S Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) said.

 

The CBP says its inspectors were looking over consignment shipments and found the kits. It did not specify where they had been shipped from, or their intended destinations but said the tests had not come from any of the labs approved to make COVID-19 tests.

 

In Rochester, the CPB reports catching 600 of the counterfeit kits since March. Twenty-five of them were spotted in the latest seizure on Tuesday.

 

https://www.whec.com/coronavirus/fake-covid-19-tests-seized-rochester/5721029/

 

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1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

....death penalty works for me.......SMH.........

 

Fake COVID-19 tests seized by US Customs and Border Patrol in Rochester

Charles Molineaux-WHEC
Updated: May 05, 2020 11:09 PM
Created: May 05, 2020 10:43 PM

 

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WHEC) — U.S. Customs and Border Patrol agents report they’ve been discovering hundreds of counterfeit tests for coronavirus being shipped through Greater Rochester International Airport, part of a broad unethical market seeking to exploit a frightened public.

 

“They are not approved and they are attempted to be sold on the black market,” Aaron Bowker with the U.S Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) said.

 

The CBP says its inspectors were looking over consignment shipments and found the kits. It did not specify where they had been shipped from, or their intended destinations but said the tests had not come from any of the labs approved to make COVID-19 tests.

 

In Rochester, the CPB reports catching 600 of the counterfeit kits since March. Twenty-five of them were spotted in the latest seizure on Tuesday.

 

https://www.whec.com/coronavirus/fake-covid-19-tests-seized-rochester/5721029/

 

 

This is truly gross ?

 

I would hope they can find those responsible and throw the book at them.

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12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

OK, I like the concept of having the criteria for re-opening laid out and a dashboard showing which areas meet what, but I'm totally confused about the hospitalization thing

 

https://forward.ny.gov/daily-hospitalization-summary-region

 

WNY does not meet the criteria, I see that

But how does Central NY region meet?

how many hospital beds in WNY

with 200 COVID patients, looks to be ample capacity to deal with any surge

 

seems "flatten the curve" was replaced with "find the cure"

and the benchmarks reflect as much

 

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Yeah I mean if the hospitalizations fluctuate up 1 down 1 every day does that keep resetting the 14 day decline for hospitalizations needed to reopen? Or would it then switch to the daily hospitalizations being under 15 I believe? If its the former that is really dumb. 

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18 minutes ago, Justin C said:

Yeah I mean if the hospitalizations fluctuate up 1 down 1 every day does that keep resetting the 14 day decline for hospitalizations needed to reopen? Or would it then switch to the daily hospitalizations being under 15 I believe? If its the former that is really dumb. 

 

From the link above:

 

Quote

Metric #1: Decline in Total Hospitalizations

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that reopening be dependent on a downward trajectory of hospitalizations and infections over a 14-day period. Before a phased re-opening begins, a region must experience a sustained decline in total net hospitalizations – the total number of people in the hospital each day, calculated on a three-day rolling average – over the course of a 14-day period. Alternatively, regions that have seen few COVID cases overall will satisfy this metric if the daily net increase in total hospitalizations (measured on a three-day rolling average) has never exceeded 15.

 

Quote

Metric #2: Decline in Deaths

Before reopening, a region must experience a sustained decline in the three-day rolling average of daily hospital deaths over the course of a 14-day period. Alternatively, regions that have seen few COVID cases overall will satisfy this metric if the three-day rolling average of daily new hospital deaths has never exceeded 5.

 

Quote

Metric #3: New Hospitalizations

In addition to monitoring the decline in disease trajectory, it’s important to monitor the absolute level of infection in each region. This is because it’s possible for a region that has seen a high level of infections – for example, New York City – to see a sustained decline in hospitalizations and deaths over a 14-day period, while still having an underlying infection rate that is too high to allow for a safe phased re-opening.

A phased re-opening for each region will be conditioned on the occurrence of fewer than two new hospitalizations per 100,000 residents (measured on a three-day rolling average).

 

It’s on a 3 day rolling average. Pretty sure one day here and there can be higher than the last as long as there’s a downward trajectory of cases over a 14 day period.

 

If you look at the hospitalization rate graph in that link, (if I’m reading it correctly) I don’t really see any 14 day period where you could draw a line that slopes down.

Best I see is a 5 day decline from 4/20 to 4/25. Our ICU rates are going down, which is good to see. But hospitalizations look like they were actually on an upward trajectory from 5/8 to 5/13 before dropping for 1 day yesterday.

 

https://forward.ny.gov/regional-monitoring-dashboard

 

Looking at the metrics, we are getting closer on hitting #2 but we are not even close on #1.

 

 

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9 hours ago, spartacus said:

how many hospital beds in WNY

with 200 COVID patients, looks to be ample capacity to deal with any surge

 

seems "flatten the curve" was replaced with "find the cure"

and the benchmarks reflect as much

 

 

I'm not sure how to take this - it seems a bit like whinging for the sake of it?

 

The dashboard indicates that WNY is at 43% of hospital beds available, and 56% of ICU beds available.  The threshold is 30%

So the hospital bed capacity is not the issue.

 

The question for WNY seems to be hospitalizations and deaths, as one metric for determining if infections are growing or shrinking - that does seem important

My question had to do with how they are determining this because for another region it looked as though they didn't meet but were listed to reopen

 

Frankly I envy NY because at least you are living in a region with some kind of defined and publically available metrics vs. "we're opening up,because... masks are a Personal Choice"

One can debate the specifics of the metrics, but at least NYS has them

4 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

It’s on a 3 day rolling average. Pretty sure one day here and there can be higher than the last as long as there’s a downward trajectory of cases over a 14 day period.

 

If you look at the hospitalization rate graph in that link, (if I’m reading it correctly) I don’t really see any 14 day period where you could draw a line that slopes down.

Best I see is a 5 day decline from 4/20 to 4/25. Our ICU rates are going down, which is good to see. But hospitalizations look like they were actually on an upward trajectory from 5/8 to 5/13 before dropping for 1 day yesterday.

 

https://forward.ny.gov/regional-monitoring-dashboard

 

Looking at the metrics, we are getting closer on hitting #2 but we are not even close on #1.

 

Yeah but look at hospitalizations for Central region, which was announced as eligible?

 

I grant they have fewer hospitalizations, but they appear to be trending UP

 

I'm confused

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5 hours ago, Justin C said:

Yeah I mean if the hospitalizations fluctuate up 1 down 1 every day does that keep resetting the 14 day decline for hospitalizations needed to reopen? Or would it then switch to the daily hospitalizations being under 15 I believe? If its the former that is really dumb. 

 

It's a 3 day rolling average, to buttress against that daily fluctuation.

So one up, one down should average out

 

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19 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not sure how to take this - it seems a bit like whinging for the sake of it?

 

The dashboard indicates that WNY is at 43% of hospital beds available, and 56% of ICU beds available.  The threshold is 30%

So the hospital bed capacity is not the issue.

 

The question for WNY seems to be hospitalizations and deaths, as one metric for determining if infections are growing or shrinking - that does seem important

My question had to do with how they are determining this because for another region it looked as though they didn't meet but were listed to reopen

 

Frankly I envy NY because at least you are living in a region with some kind of defined and publically available metrics vs. "we're opening up,because... masks are a Personal Choice"

One can debate the specifics of the metrics, but at least NYS has them

 

Yeah but look at hospitalizations for Central region, which was announced as eligible?

 

I grant they have fewer hospitalizations, but they appear to be trending UP

 

I'm confused

I’m not sure, but if I’m reading the charts right I think it’s because central NY falls under the 2nd threshold. You have to meet either or.

 

For ex., in metric #1)

 

Quote

The second number represents the maximum daily net increase in total hospitalizations measured on a three day rolling average that the region has experienced; if this number is 15 or less the region automatically satisfies this metric.

It looks like they’re at 6 new hospitalizations every 3 days (average), putting them well under the 15 case threshold. So even though they haven’t had 14 days of declining hospital cases, since they’re under 15 total cases every 3 days (average) they meet the criteria.

 

Same with metric #2. It needs to be fewer than 5 deaths every 3 days and they’re at 3.

(assuming I’m reading the charts right...lol)

 

 

And yes, I’m happy with the way NY is handling reopening. They’re letting the experts lead and following the CDC guidelines, which is what every state should be doing IMO. I know some people get mad that we’re still closed but NYS is literally just following the federal plan for reopening.

 

 

 

edit - @Hapless Bills Fan I just looked at the hospitalization rate chart for Central NY and I see what you mean. The rate is climbing quickly. If it continues they’ll be over that 15 case threshold soon and could have to shut down right after they open.

Edited by BillsFan4
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58 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

We had a big drop in hospitalizations yesterday. From 204 to 189

https://forward.ny.gov/daily-hospitalization-summary-region

 

So I’m guessing we must be under the “15 new hospitalizations every 3 days” criteria?

Seems a bit surprising, but I’m glad to hear it.

 

Oh, man, I hope they’re not cooking the books by sending home some patients who should be hospitalized or discharging some patients to die in nursing homes vs hospitals.

It just makes me a bit suspicious when the limit is 15, and a region for 2 days has precisely 15. 

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58 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Oh, man, I hope they’re not cooking the books by sending home some patients who should be hospitalized or discharging some patients to die in nursing homes vs hospitals.

It just makes me a bit suspicious when the limit is 15, and a region for 2 days has precisely 15. 

Where do you see the data that shows 15 new hospitalizations over the last 2 days?

I can’t seem to find it. I don’t know if it’s not available on mobile/tablet? Or if I’m just missing it.

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13 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

Where do you see the data that shows 15 new hospitalizations over the last 2 days?

I can’t seem to find it. I don’t know if it’s not available on mobile/tablet? Or if I’m just missing it.

 

https://forward.ny.gov/daily-hospitalization-summary-region

 

Click "Western New York"

 

Although now that I look again, it's a decrease of 15, I must not have had my morning coffee yet...yeah, that's my story, and I'm sticking to it!

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56 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

....with all of the purported break throughs, scientific studies many of which are not peer reviewed, alleged testing mechanisms, probable treatments and or vaccines, how does the scientific community ferret out realism from junk?.....how many "discovering" companies are solely driven by a goal to inflate their stock price prematurely?....I'd say the scientific community is faced with an already yeoman's task in their extensive laboratory analyses only to be clouded by falsities of hope or promise.....can we EVER get to a reliably accurate database so the scientists can come up with accurate assessments, albeit 50 or 75 % reliable?......talk about making one's job harder.......patience MUST be an extreme virtue IMO.....

 

I would say the data sort themselves, to professionals.

 

The hardest part for professionals I think, is all the new tests.  That's something that the medical practitioner really needs to be able to take on faith that they're accurate and adequately vetted.  But the independent studies are coming out and the tests are sorting themselves out, as well.  There have been several groups that have done amazing work in a short time.

 

For studies, as I said to @Nervous Guy in another thread, good scientists learn what is good study design, what is poor study design.  You look at one study which says "100%" but has no controls and excluded patients who didn't fit the conclusion,  and another that had all the proper controls and adequate size and showed no significant effect and say "Welp, Then."  Clinical science on the hoof has always been a messy business, three steps forward two back.

 

The problem with being clouded with false hope and promise, I think, falls more on the public and politicians than on scientists and has most to do with the way the media reports things.  Media seems very prone to sensationalism nowadays - I guess "this has a high probability of working,  but it will require injection or infusion and will be costly to manufacture" is very boring compared to "this will be 100% cure!"

 

Discovering companies are usually too small to be publicly traded and inflate their stock (Gilead was large enough to be publicly traded) but what their game is, is to attract the attention of a big pharma that will license their product or acquire them.

 

 

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@Hapless Bills Fan it looks like WNY did meet the 2nd criteria for hospitalizations, but it looks like it’s only because of that big dip 2 days ago. Look at the bottom right chart. 19 hospitalizations, then 5, then 20. So, if my math is correct that would be a 14.6666 average.

 

We could fail it as quickly as we met it though, if we don’t see more dips in hospitalizations. 

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It will be more important now than ever to follow all the safety guidelines, especially wearing masks and social distancing.

 

We are only entering phase 1 of reopening. That is nowhere near “back to normal”, and it is not a guarantee that we will be able to move to phase 2 (or even that we’ll be able to stay open in phase 1). We barely met the hospitalization metrics needed to be able to open. If people don’t obey the safety guidelines we will close back up as quickly as we opened...

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8 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

It will be more important now than ever to follow all the safety guidelines, especially wearing masks and social distancing.

 

We are only entering phase 1 of reopening. That is nowhere near “back to normal”, and it is not a guarantee that we will be able to move to phase 2 (or even that we’ll be able to stay open in phase 1). We barely met the hospitalization metrics needed to be able to open. If people don’t obey the safety guidelines we will close back up as quickly as we opened...

 

I am willing to bet that when he made this announcement, Cuomo was NOT wearing a mask. 

 

This is a big failure of leadership (not just Cuomo, all levels) - it needs to be emphasized, and emphasized, and reemphasized.  We aren't re-opening because the hurricane has passed and there is now no danger.  There are still a substantial number of people with active covid-19 infections in the community.  The disease WILL flare up if we don't take care.

 

https://masks4all.org/

Wear a mask

Continue to practice distancing

Wash hands thoroughly and often

 

Wearing a mask sucks.  I hate it.  I do it anyway.  At best, it's hot.  The better the mask, the more uncomfortable - a good-sealing mask will leave marks on your face after a couple hours wear.

 

I do it because I believe the data that masks work to reduce emission of particles, even crappy cloth masks.  Crappy masks won't keep YOU from getting sick if an unmasked person with covid-19 gets into your space and yells at you.  But they keep YOU from making OTHERS sick, should you be infected and asymptomatic. 

 

IF ENOUGH PEOPLE WEAR THEM, masks break the transmission chain and will allow us to open, and remain open.  The studies and simulations I linked in the other thread show that to effectively STOP the pandemic, 80% of people must wear masks.  50% will reduce the size of outbreaks.  But if only 20% or 25% of people wear masks, they don't have as much effect.

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