The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[BillStime]

Yup - no doubt. Just like he said he would definitely release his taxes. 

 

 

[GaryPinC]

19 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Baselines matter.  That's why every time I'd hear people say we could "increased testing, wear masks and contact tracing" and believe that this would be the solution to "get things under control" when the outbreak was already in place is laughable.  It's as if they have zero common sense. 

 

Masks work on the margins.  Increased testing helps you recognize who is and isn't positive at that moment.  Contact tracing helps recognize some others who are positive.

 

These tools while marginally helpful are fractional in their overall efficacy when you have tens of thousands of infected people in a particular area.   

 

Yet, the media and their gullible viewers keep parroting these things over and over despite all the data and evidence that points to the contrary.

 

 

You're certainly right about most everything except the laughable part.  You keep at the efforts to control it until you get control then really need to use contact tracing to keep it under control.  But even then people need to take the prevention steps.  The baseline can come down, isolation and these other measures help that.

[GG]

1 minute ago, GaryPinC said:

Look, I get your point, but there's going to be outbreaks in New York also, nearly everywhere unless we get, as Magox says, draconian about it.   Certainly previous exposure (innate immunity) will play an as-yet-unquantified role but it's up to everyone to do their best to follow guidelines to limit the outbreak.  You're comparing Sydney to Melbourne today?  It could completely flip in a week, who knows?

 

Yes comparing Sydney to Melbourne is important because it shows the increasing spread in a region that didn't get hit before.  That repeats the pattern of another diverse and geographically huge country.

 

Of course cases can rise, but from my vantage point, NY has been out of lockdown for 2 months, you have thousands of kids getting hammered nightly and then bringing whatever virus home to their high risk parents, and there's been no meaningful increase in cases.  Never mind the hundreds of thousands that have been out protesting in 2 months.  And of course my favorite petri dish, the Hasids of Williamsburg.  Why did they stop dropping like flies in mid-April.

 

You seem to be reasonably educated on this virus.  Please tell me of a theory on why cases aren't rising in the world's biggest hotspot, despite the loose behavior?

[WEATHER DOT COM]

1 minute ago, GG said:

 

Please tell me of a theory on why cases aren't rising in the world's biggest hotspot, despite the loose behavior?

 

A statewide effort to keep those from other states out of NY, social distancing, contract tracing, and mandatory masks in indoor venues

 

 

 

[BillStime]

Remember when Trump implied heath care workers were stealing their masks?  Yeah that was cute.

 

z

[GG]

1 minute ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

 

A statewide effort to keep those from other states out of NY, social distancing, contract tracing, and mandatory masks in indoor venues

 

 

 

 

And none of that is happening in NYC.

 

Thanks for the daily confirmation.

[WEATHER DOT COM]

Just now, GG said:

 

And none of that is happening in NYC.

 

Thanks for the daily confirmation.

 

None of it? Did NYC airports stop tracking visitors from out of state? Did tracers stop calling those who get Covid 19 in NYC?

[Buffalo_Gal]

If this was previously posted, apologies:

Moderna vaccine enters phase 3.

Phase 3 clinical trial of investigational vaccine for COVID-19 begins

 

[GG]

4 minutes ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

 

None of it? Did NYC airports stop tracking visitors from out of state? Did tracers stop calling those who get Covid 19 in NYC?

 

Yeah, let's worry about the 50 passengers who arrive at the airports and ignore the million who cross the bridges and tunnels by car.

 

please enlighten me of the army of tracers that are working in Astoria and Lower East side every night. 

 

Moron.  

Edited July 27, 2020 by GG

[WEATHER DOT COM]

Just now, GG said:

 

Yeah, let's worry about the 50 passengers who arrive at the airports and ignore the million who cross the bridges and tunnels by car.

 

Moron.  

 

More people enter NYS through airports than by car.

 

Also a majority of those entering via bridge and tunnel are from CT and NJ - two states that have huddled with NY in response to the virus.

 

Genius.

[GaryPinC]

6 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Yes comparing Sydney to Melbourne is important because it shows the increasing spread in a region that didn't get hit before.  That repeats the pattern of another diverse and geographically huge country.

 

Of course cases can rise, but from my vantage point, NY has been out of lockdown for 2 months, you have thousands of kids getting hammered nightly and then bringing whatever virus home to their high risk parents, and there's been no meaningful increase in cases.  Never mind the hundreds of thousands that have been out protesting in 2 months.  And of course my favorite petri dish, the Hasids of Williamsburg.  Why did they stop dropping like flies in mid-April.

 

You seem to be reasonably educated on this virus.  Please tell me of a theory on why cases aren't rising in the world's biggest hotspot, despite the loose behavior?

LOL, forgive my midwestern ignorance but what is the Hasids of Williamsburg?

 

The rest?  And these are only educated guesses.  Incidence in NY is very low right now.  If, loose behavior is as rampant as you describe, then the virus will come back up.  As I said, we still don't know enough about long term immunity from this virus so it's certainly very possible that is tamping it down right now.  Will it be long lasting?  Maybe NYC will teach us then.

BTW, I was up at Chautauqua 2 weeks ago.  NY still has a lot of restrictions that help.

 

This is a novel virus.  It is highly infectious.  Yes, the numbers tell us only a small percent of the population will have problems with it.  But I don't want to have those kinds of problems nor to I want to be careless and inflict them on someone else.  I go out to eat at bar/restaurants that are operating responsibly and am out doing my part to support responsible businesses.  

[GG]

1 minute ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

 

More people enter NYS through airports than by car.

 

Also a majority of those entering via bridge and tunnel are from CT and NJ - two states that have huddled with NY in response to the virus.

 

Genius.

 

Air travel is down 90%.  there are still thousands non-tristate vehicles entering NYC daily.

 

If your theory is correct, it doesn't matter where the virus comes from.  Yet, if NJ & CT huddled with NY and there's no increase in cases despite tristate being wide open to them, what does that say about a viral resurgence?

[RiotAct]

1 hour ago, Gary M said:

 

DEJA VU

 

I could swear I heard those same lines when NY started to decline in numbers.

I know.  I’m just sayin... I feel like those states have had drops on the past only to spike up again

[WEATHER DOT COM]

1 minute ago, GG said:

If your theory is correct, it doesn't matter where the virus comes from.  Yet, if NJ & CT huddled with NY and there's no increase in cases despite tristate being wide open to them, what does that say about a viral resurgence?

 

uh

 

14 minutes ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

A tri-state effort to keep those from other states out of MA/CT/NY, social distancing, contract tracing, and mandatory masks in indoor venues

 

 

Fixed it so you can comprehend

 

Although I probably have alterior motives with you.

[BillsFanNC]

Trump just down the road from me as we speak at FujiFilm Diosynth with a covid vaccine update.

 

https://abc11.com/politics/watch-live-president-trump-makes-1st-visit-to-nc-since-march/6336407/

[BillStime]

Per WorldMeters - We have just passed another grim milestone:
 

150,000 Americans have died in less than five months
 

Congrats Trump voters - you are indeed a death cult.

[GG]

2 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

LOL, forgive my midwestern ignorance but what is the Hasids of Williamsburg?

 

The rest?  And these are only educated guesses.  Incidence in NY is very low right now.  If, loose behavior is as rampant as you describe, then the virus will come back up.  As I said, we still don't know enough about long term immunity from this virus so it's certainly very possible that is tamping it down right now.  Will it be long lasting?  Maybe NYC will teach us then.

BTW, I was up at Chautauqua 2 weeks ago.  NY still has a lot of restrictions that help.

 

This is a novel virus.  It is highly infectious.  Yes, the numbers tell us only a small percent of the population will have problems with it.  But I don't want to have those kinds of problems nor to I want to be careless and inflict them on someone else.  I go out to eat at bar/restaurants that are operating responsibly and am out doing my part to support responsible businesses.  

 

The Hasids are an old world insular sect of Judaism that's concentrated in Williamsburg (Brooklyn).  It's a very close knit community that still thinks it's 19th century Hungary.  Given their lifestyle and housing arrangements, this virus should have wiped them out.  Yet despite the high early cases, and the Nazi mayor's best efforts, they remain very much alive.

 

NY kids have flouted all social distancing rules ever since the bars started curbside orders.  No social distancing, no masks. 

 

It's been proven that the prevalence of the spread is in the home, and that's why the worst hit neighborhoods were the ones with the largest household sizes (not poverty).  Therefore, if the virus was still lingering in NY, there would have been a massive resurgence starting in mid-June. 

9 minutes ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

 

uh

 

 

 

Fixed it so you can comprehend

 

Although I probably have alterior motives with you.

 

None of that is happening in any scale in tristate, no matter what you think.

[Gary M]

7 minutes ago, BillStime said:

Per WorldMeters - We have just passed another grim milestone:
 

150,000 Americans have died in less than five months
 

Thanks China

 

FIFY

[Magox]

1 hour ago, GaryPinC said:

Really?  And why is that?  If you actually dig into their rationale, it usually revolves around the fact that experts prefer people concentrate on hand-washing, social distancing, and self-isolation (like Bundgaard) or that many looked at the tiny size of the viral particle but failed to consider it would be spread on water droplets.

 

 

He says there’s evidence to suggest that the only effective face covering might be a visor, because the virus can spread through all mucous membranes, including via the eyes. He worries a cloth covering that only protects the nose and mouth provides a “false sense of security.”

“All these countries recommending face masks haven’t made their decisions based on new studies,” Bundgaard said in an interview in Copenhagen.

State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said in June that masks are “possibly” to be recommended for people using public transport, but added that such coverings “definitely won’t become an optimal solution in any way,” in an interview with Dagens Industri.

Bundgaard says the simple rules that currently exist in Denmark -- hand-washing, social distancing, self-isolating if you’re sick -- are effective because they’re easy to remember. He worries that using face masks might lead people to be “sloppy” in following the other guidelines.

 

So on this front you were incorrect in your description to why they don't believe masks are that effective, which is something you failed to mention.  That you can catch the virus through droplets in your eyes and that mask usage is highly subjective in the sense that people often times wear them wrong and providing a false sense of security.

 

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"the virus is going to do what a virus does"  Sure, except that we are trying to dilute what the virus is doing.   Go look at data for S. Korea, China, Japan to see how it did over there.

 

 

South Korea and Japan all have unique circumstances that differentiate themselves from us.  First of all, the level of obedience and compliance from their citizenry is vastly different than ours.  Secondly they have top down governments and are more inclined to present draconian style measures.  Measures that are insanely stupid when you consider the risks from both sides of the ledger.  Third of all, the migration flows and how they are setup up with a homogeneous style government and their geography allows them different set of circumstances than the U.S    The amount of people visiting the United states from Europe is nearly 10 times as high as it is to Japan and the discrepancy is much worse with South Korea.   

 

And I'm not even going into the T-cell immunities but I believe there is even more of it in Asia than there is here.

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You're on here crowing about how you follow the data.  In science, in an emerging area, you can't just follow the data blindly.  Data is collected from studies, and studies have limitations and biases.  Many different studies and forms of data from different investigators must be collected before drawing conclusions and even then we must be careful to reconsider if needed.  Things look different now than they did at the beginning of March and will look different next year.  

 

You follow the data?  Were you one of those proclaiming this thing wasn't as bad as the flu back in early March, ignoring the problem of comparing an emerging virus to an endemic one?  Were you one of those in late June/early July proclaiming the outbreaks in Florida, Texas, Arizona were simply due to increased testing because deaths hadn't risen yet? Even though recent history shows deaths trails incidence of new cases by 1-2 weeks.  Because there were plenty of those people even if you were not among them.

 

 

I do, it's what I do for a living. It's a passion of mine.  The bolded and highlighted part is all gibberish and added nothing to this discussion.  I understand variables and how data is collected can affect outcomes.   

 

To the below point, was I one of the ones saying that it wasn't as bad the flu?  Nope, you got me confused for someone else.  

 

Was I one of the ones who were attributing the rise due to increased testing?   Nope, you got me confused for someone else.    Even though testing clearly is a reason for the confirmed positives but prevalency is something that I follow closely with the Percent Positive rate.  That was after all in a post on that very same page to the one responded to?  

 

Before you start spitting your venom, at least attribute it to the right person.

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You say you predicted this virus would have outbreaks again?  Big deal, the controlling factor is how bad will it be, and our efforts to control the spread can have some say over that.  

 

I also predicted the re-emergence in Ohio.  Why?  Our hospitalizations never bottomed out enough before reopening, too many people were convinced it would go away with the warm weather and the nutty right wing extremists and younger crowd were going to try and return life to normal and ignore protective measures.  Not difficult to predict.

 

 

 

That's not what I said, and again your ability to comprehend what you are reading is blinding you.  This was in the context of Shoshin and someone else stating that increased testing and contact tracing after the first initial wave was going to be the key to controlling the spread.  I said that it wouldn't work.  That it wouldn't work because the baseline of true infections was too high for that to be effective.  That there were way too many asymptomatics along with the confirmed positives to make this happen.  They argued that it could work, I argued that I don't operate off of could's but what would happen.   And what I said was correct.    

 

Nutty right wing extremists?    Now the truth comes out.  You're a partisan that is immune to facts and data.   People of color  and people in cities run by the left have the overwhelming % of those that have tested positive.  With that statement, now I know that you are not a serious person.

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And guess what?  There is no evidence "herd immunity" will extinguish the virus (recent international outbreaks point otherwise) or bring it under enough control until we get a vaccine.  

 

Anyone who truly cares about getting the economy going and returning a semblance of normal should realize masks, distancing, etc are critical to that until either endemic outbreaks remain small enough or a vaccine is proven and in the population.  People want to feel safe when they go out to spend money, unfortunately we have to rely on each other for that and in the USA we seem to be terrible at making small everyday changes for the good of others.

 

 

Sure there is.  There is plenty of evidence to suggest that.  Where have you been?  Clearly you are not in tune with what's happening.  Now is it conclusive evidence?  No, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that "herd immunity" would help slow the spread of the virus significantly.     

 

P.S  It's not about the antibodies.  

 

P.S.S  it's not a 70% Antibody threshold to achieve herd-like-immunity

 

In regards to returning back to normalcy. I'm ok with wearing masks.  Never said that I wasn't, in fact I have said over and over that I wear them when I am going to be near other people in public.   What I did say is that they are overstated and they are.  There is less than 1% doubt in my mind of that.

 

 

Edited July 27, 2020 by Magox

[Buffalo_Gal]

12 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said:

Trump just down the road from me as we speak at FujiFilm Diosynth with a covid vaccine update.

 

https://abc11.com/politics/watch-live-president-trump-makes-1st-visit-to-nc-since-march/6336407/

I started late:

* Sending out 800K more point of care devices to the nursing home will be sent out in the next few weeks.
* Distributed 1.5M N95 masks (listed hospital masks, and shield numbers, too)
* Last week FEMA sent more PPE to nursing homes (named the numbers)
* We report our cases, much of the world does not [I read this morning Mexico released new numbers this morning... they were not good] and Trump is talking about more people at the border.
 

Edited July 27, 2020 by Buffalo_Gal