The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[SoCal Deek]

Hey PPP posters!
 

On Sunday afternoon I started running a mild fever that spiked at 102 by Monday afternoon. This morning, Tuesday, I made an appointment for a fifteen minute test ($195). I’m 61 and in very good health but live in Southern California so I feared the worst. The test was a swab deep up both nostrils and while eye watering uncomfortable was not painful. You stay in your car and they come out to you. Likewise they bring the results back to you signed by a Doctor. When it took a few minutes longer than fifteen I really started to worry, what with my fever and all. The results? Negative! Just a bad summer cold I guess. 

[shoshin]

4 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

And I’m not sure there is anyone on this board that is anti-mask, is there?

 

It's my hope that they have finally come around, but I doubt it. 

 

Who here thinks masks are stupid? Any of you care to re-affirm earlier positions? I won't name you out of the courtesy to your positions, which may have evolved like Trump's. 

 

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Hey PPP posters!
 

On Sunday afternoon I started running a mild fever that spiked at 102 by Monday afternoon. This morning, Tuesday, I made an appointment for a fifteen minute test ($195). I’m 61 and in very good health but live in Southern California so I feared the worst. The test was a swab deep up both nostrils and while eye watering uncomfortable was not painful. You stay in your car and they come out to you. Likewise they bring the results back to you signed by a Doctor. When it took a few minutes longer than fifteen I really started to worry, what with my fever and all. The results? Negative! Just a bad summer cold I guess. 

 

Do you know which test? The rapid ones have wide variability in accuracy. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by shoshin

[B-Man]

2 hours ago, TakeYouToTasker said:

It's that time of year, sports fans!

 

Let's lighten up the thread for a little while.

 

Give me your best COVID-19 inspired fantasy baseball team names.

 

This year I went with:  "Casey ate the Bat"

 

Runner up was:  "Wuhan Soto"

 

Birx’s Rangers
 

Fauci Berra 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

11 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

It's my hope that they have finally come around, but I doubt it. 

 

Who here thinks masks are stupid? Any of you care to re-affirm earlier positions? I won't name you out of the courtesy to your positions, which may have evolved like Trump's. 

 

 

Do you know which test? The rapid ones have wide variability in accuracy. 

No I don’t. Since this is my life I REALLY DON’T appreciate the negative thoughts!  Sheesh man! 

[Magox]

Masks?

 

eh

 

I think they are more helpful than not but their effectiveness is overstated.   

 

I wear them out of respect for other people that I'm going to be in contact with.

[shoshin]

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

No I don’t. Since this is my life I REALLY DON’T appreciate the negative thoughts!  Sheesh man! 

 

You should know your data exactly because it's your life. The right-leaning media has been all over the inaccuracy of the short-turnaround tests. 

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

 

You should know your data exactly because it's your life. The right-leaning media has been all over the inaccuracy of the short-turnaround tests. 

Don’t be an ASS

I came on here to tell a story of an actual experience in hopes people could learn from it. I’m not a guy in my basement in the Ukraine! I’m a real person with a real family. I’ll end this post with GO TO HELL!!!

[bilzfancy]

4 minutes ago, Magox said:

Masks?

 

eh

 

I think they are more helpful than not but their effectiveness is overstated.   

 

I wear them out of respect for other people that I'm going to be in contact with.

Agreed, unless they're the M-95 mask, pieces of cloth that most people wear are fairly useless, better then nothing but barely.

[123719bwiqrb]

I wear mine because it is the guidance, and it is respectful to others who are older, feebler, etc. Personally, when I keep hearing about never getting a vaccine, lockdowns forever - I just want to ditch my mask, go lick a door knob and check out.  I want off this ride a lot lately.

 

The problem I see is the request to wear the mask will never go away, as there are lots of respiratory illnesses where a mask would mitigate the potential of joe schmo catching the thing that finally kills him. Be it a common cold, normal flu, whatever.

Sure covid is new, and it is bad, but the new normal will be all masks, all the time once the dust settles here, mainly because the relative risk of covid vs many other diseases out there are the same.

Edited July 22, 2020 by 123719bwiqrb

[shoshin]

26 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Don’t be an ASS

I came on here to tell a story of an actual experience in hopes people could learn from it. I’m not a guy in my basement in the Ukraine! I’m a real person with a real family. I’ll end this post with GO TO HELL!!!

 

Uhh, what?

 

I have been tested too, three times now. 

 

It's important to know what test you're getting and how accurate it is, especially with the rapid tests. Being informed is better than walking around ill-informed, and because you're out there interacting with many people, you should be as informed as you can be. If you can't get that info, go get a better test. I'd say for anyone sick, or planning on being around at risk people (my issue), that is imperative. 

 

 

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

38 minutes ago, Magox said:

Masks?

 

eh

 

I think they are more helpful than not but their effectiveness is overstated.   

 

I wear them out of respect for other people that I'm going to be in contact with.

Disposable masks, bandannas, face coverings, scarves are pretty darned useless. The N95 Masks sound like they have value.  I wear a mask to go into a grocery store due to mandates. I have considered going the HIPAA route, but hubby gives me the stink eye, and so it is worth the peace at home to wear a mask in the store.

 

I gotta buy me a “Trump 2020” mask to do my part in making the mandate go away faster. 
 

 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Buffalo_Gal
Autocorrect sucks

[shoshin]

8 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

Sure covid is new, and it is bad, but the new normal will be all masks, all the time once the dust settles here.

 

Maybe, but I've been to Japan a few times and despite stereotypes to the contrary, masks are the minority (pre-Covid times). You may underestimate the human psyche to get over something like this. I don't plan on wearing a mask once the counts drop low, that's for sure. I hate them. 

 

5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Disposable masks, bandannas, face coverings, scarves are pretty darned useless. The N95 Masks sound like they have value.  I wear a mask to go into a grocery store due to mandates. I have considered going the HIPAA route, but hubby gives me the stinky eye, and so it is worth the peace at home to wear it in the store.

 

 

@123719bwiqrb : No amount of scientists, articles, etc can move the needle with B-gal. She's not alone. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by shoshin

[SoCal Deek]

21 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Uhh, what?

 

I have been tested too, three times now. 

 

It's important to know what test you're getting and how accurate it is, especially with the rapid tests. Being informed is better than walking around ill-informed, and because you're out there interacting with many people, you should be as informed as you can be. If you can't get that info, go get a better test. I'd say for anyone sick, or planning on being around at risk people (my issue), that is imperative. 

 

 

 

GO TO HELL!

[fansince88]

58 minutes ago, Magox said:

Masks?

 

eh

 

I think they are more helpful than not but their effectiveness is overstated.   

 

I wear them out of respect for other people that I'm going to be in contact with.

I do wear on when required....just because. that said, google masks and you will get many pro and many con videos about masking. I thought this was an interesting video. That said, I am in the camp that the masks are not helpful but as i said i wear it for others to feel better. 

 

23 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Disposable masks, bandannas, face coverings, scarves are pretty darned useless. The N95 Masks sound like they have value.  I wear a mask to go into a grocery store due to mandates. I have considered going the HIPAA route, but hubby gives me the stink eye, and so it is worth the peace at home to wear a mask in the store.

 

I gotta buy me a “Trump 2020” mask to do my part in making the mandate go away faster. 
 

 

See above video. I agree and so do these studies

Edited July 22, 2020 by fansince88

[SoCal Deek]

58 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

You should know your data exactly because it's your life. The right-leaning media has been all over the inaccuracy of the short-turnaround tests. 

Sofia Sars Antigen FIA

[shoshin]

8 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Sofia Sars Antigen FIA

There are published accuracy numbers out there, including by the company. 
 

Good luck! If you’re sick though, get the real test. Don’t mess around. 
 

 

[shoshin]

8 hours ago, fansince88 said:

I do wear on when required....just because. that said, google masks and you will get many pro and many con videos about masking. I thought this was an interesting video. That said, I am in the camp that the masks are not helpful but as i said i wear it for others to feel better. 

 

See above video. I agree and so do these studies

Awesome. The two “studies” quoted in some random video made for an agenda-Ed audience were regarding HCWs using cloth masks in a hospital setting and whether they protect the wearer from patients who are sick. 
 

The idiocy of this as a comparison to what every expert is advocating and way more studies confirm is astounding. 
 

But there you go. The anti-science crowd is firmly set in its ways and as I said, there’s and anti-mask majority(?) or at least plurality here. 
 

 

Edited July 22, 2020 by shoshin

[fansince88]

8 minutes ago, shoshin said:

Awesome. The two “studies” quoted in some random video made for an agenda-Ed audience were regarding HCWs using cloth masks in a hospital setting and whether they protect the wearer from patients who are sick. 
 

The idiocy of this as a comparison to what every expert is advocating and way more studies confirm is astounding. 
 

But there you go. The anti-science crowd is firmly set in its ways and as I said, there’s and anti-mask majority(?) or at least plurality here. 

Awesome. Eyes wide open I see. I believe I qualified my point before the video. But there you go. Judging based on personal opinion rather then on what a person posted. As I said, one could google it and see both sides....  or perhaps you cannot.  I believe I may possibly have misjudged you.

BTW, I work at a drug chain warehouse. EVERY mask we sell. Everyone.  Warning on the back says they will not protect against viruses like Covid. Even the makers are protecting their butts 

Edited July 22, 2020 by fansince88

[shoshin]

49 minutes ago, fansince88 said:

Awesome. Eyes wide open I see. I believe I qualified my point before the video. But there you go. Judging based on personal opinion rather then on what a person posted. As I said, one could google it and see both sides....  or perhaps you cannot.  I believe I may possibly have misjudged you.

BTW, I work at a drug chain warehouse. EVERY mask we sell. Everyone.  Warning on the back says they will not protect against viruses like Covid. Even the makers are protecting their butts 

 

Uh no. I judged it based on the studies he showed conclusions of in the video actually. He screenshot some of them so you cloud see bits. It seems like all he showed were the publicly available portions (nice research—a real deep dive!!) but they were clear enough.  
 

The cloth mask You wear is not for your protection. How many times do you think people have to say that before people like you get it? 

 

The credible studies you can “google” (I can also google proof that Trump is a lizard person) conclude that cloth masks don’t protect HCWs from unmasked sick people. Shocker. 
 

That’s not what cloth masks are being advocated for. Cloth masks protect others from you. That’s why you wear them. And if you’re a HCW like my wife, you wear The N95. And guess what, HCWs—even those treating Cv19–are staying largely free of Covid-19 these days. 
 

Maybe because...wait for it...masks work pretty well? 

Edited July 22, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

Mask studies are largely useless.  Too many variables that affect outcomes involve humans and the efficacy of how they wear them couple that with realistic compliance and quality of masks, forget about it.  Studies when it comes to masks can only show you what IS THEORETICALLY possible.  But not what IS realistic.  Kinda like studies that show what your brain is capable of if we applied all of our brain, even though reality is that no one will ever apply all of their brain and only a fraction of it.  Not apples to apples but I think you get the idea.

 

To properly have this discussion we have to understand how the virus is transmitted.   The virus is transmitted largely in settings where you will be in close contact with infected people for sustained periods of time (10 minutes +).   It thrives in enclosed settings and even more so places with poor ventilation.
 

Contact tracers and hospital administrators report consistently that over 75% of people that contract the virus actually contract it inside their own homes.  The rest of them contract it wherever you will be in close contact with an infected person for a sustained period of time.   Transportation, churches, close office settings, meat plants, prisons, protests, packed bars/restaurants etc.

 

All these places are places you can be with someone the same someone who is infected over a sustained time period.

 

Think of your typical trip outside of your home to the grocery store or wherever.  How often are you next to the same person for 10 straight minutes or more?   Not that often unless you are in one of the settings I described above.  Which means that casual contact whether you wear a mask or not is not going to have a statistically significant impact.

 

A rule of thumb that I have pretty much always lived by which is an old Mark Twain quote “Figures don’t lie but liars do figure”.    Which is when it comes to analysis, verifiable data is your best baseline to work off.   
 

What does the data show?

 

The data shows that places that have been hit the worst already had relatively high mask compliance.

 

Los Angeles has had mask mandates for well over a month and they are one of the highest hit cities.  New York had high mask compliance back in mid March. How do I know?  I was there from the 16th-20th of March and NY was already a ghost town and everyone I saw was wearing masks yet they continued to spiral out of control.  Miami has been at high mask compliance relatively speaking for 4 straight months. Same with Northern Italy, Paris, Brussels, Newark and the list goes on.  

 

Take a look at this heat map from The NY Times who has the highest compliance of mask usage.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/17/upshot/coronavirus-face-mask-map.html
 

Time and time again, places with the highest mask compliance we’re not able to contain the virus.  That’s a verifiable statement.

 

I am not advocating for people not to wear masks, I think people’s fear and anxiety is a real thing even though I often times don’t believe it’s rooted in reality but it’s real and out of respect for them and the possibility that maybe I could infect them, I wear the mask when I go out and know will be in contact with others.    
 

For me it’s not a matter of “do masks work?”  It’s a convoluted question and it’s not the right question to ask.   The question should be: considering the makeup of our society and realistic compliance expectations, how effective can masks be?

 

The answer really just depends on a variety of variables, variables that studies can’t possibly factor in.   If a city already has an outbreak, forget about it, it will only help on the margins until the virus burns out.  That reality has borne out time and time again.   My hunch and common sense says that the setting that it helps with more so than anywhere else are in the settings I described above and in cities that have low prevalency.  Sort of helps tilt the R-naught “effect” in the right direction.  In other words just makes it more difficult to find a host to infect.   
 

Another question is why is it that the Nords who are viewed by many to be one of the most intelligent people on the planet, do not wear masks?  Sweden, Norway and Finland all have a below 10% compliance rate which is the lowest in the planet.   I have googled up what their public epidemiologists say and basically it’s stuff like this:

 

”Based on the current epidemiological situation, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health considers that there is no scientific basis for recommending general use or non-medical face masks in the general population."

“We are aware that this type of protection, which won't be medical face masks, would be of very variable quality," she said. "And so they might lead people to not give the same attention to the other advice that we have, such as keeping distance and staying home if you are sick." 

 

This is basically the answer that each one of those countries say.   Norway has said if they were to experience a more drastic outbreak they would reconsider but they have abstained from advocating for it.  Keep in mind these people are thought to be home of some of the best microbiologists in the world.
 

Again, I think masks help more than not but the data says a lot and any analysis that does not take the actual outcomes into heavy consideration is working off a faulty baseline.

 

 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Magox