The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[shoshin]

 

If India is diagnosing 80K cases per day, the real number is probably at least 10X that. That's astounding. 

[keepthefaith]

On 8/29/2020 at 11:17 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

Trump needs to take his goddamn job seriously for the few remaining months he's in office.

 

Top 6 Covid cases per capita all include states Trump needs for his own reelection purposes, which is the only thing that really motivates him other than money:

 

Louisiana 

Florida 

Arizona 

Mississippi 

Alabama 

Georgia 

 

These are all places a Republican nominee should pretty easily win, but Donald Trump keeps shooting himself in the foot out of pure neglect.

 

Uh, Governors. 

 

Trump and his team are working on the problem overall.  Development and rollout of vaccines, treatments and supplies of medical equipment. 

[spartacus]

7 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

If India is diagnosing 80K cases per day, the real number is probably at least 10X that. That's astounding. 

what's astounding?

the PCR testing is doing exactly what is was designed to do

identify coronavirus genetic materrial in one's body - after multiplying that material 35 TRILLION times

doesn't matter that COVID-19 has nothing to to do with the results

 

it's not a coinicidence that the CDC changed the PCR specs in June from doubling of 35x to 45x

this increased the times the genetic material was multiplied from 5 billion to 35 trillion

right about the same time as the "2nd wave" hit with new cases everywhere

yet still nobody sick

 

[BUFFALOTONE]

1 hour ago, BeerLeagueHockey said:

It is funny and really DUMB.  I keep reading it typically takes a few days to classify and report out all the covideaths.  But what I don’t understand is wouldn’t the death show up at the date & time when the human expires, you know like they write on every death certificate?  This either implies that the deaths are categorized when someone makes the decision, or people literally decide to not die on the weekend (not true). Why not backfill last Saturday with the real data!  
 

As a reliability engineer (if I was one), I would think the actual date and time of an occurrence would override the “decision” of an engineer when a piece of equipment failed. Let me track all the bearing failures in my fleet for when I review and classify that bearing indeed fail. Lots of bad bearings on Tuesday morning.

Holy cow I’ve been saying this for 4 weeks... I can only speak of FL and the daily count from the state. They say for example 200 people died of Covid 19 on Aug 20th, then when you open the article it stated this number was taken over several weeks... what does that mean? They count it against the daily amount but it was taken over a months worth of data. I agree with the above, once you pass from it that should be it. This just pumps up the numbers more and more...

[ALF]

Schools opening especially colleges,  cases will be going up even Buffalo now . Treatment  and containment is a lot better now so less deaths .  

[GOBUFFALO716]

Eagles owner slams Trump over COVID response 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/wellness/philadelphia-eagles-owner-jeffrey-lurie-calls-us-coronavirus-response-e2-80-98a-tragic-embarrassment-e2-80-99/ar-BB18yyWa

 

 

[B-Man]

It seems that the Wuhan virus’s risks have been grossly exaggerated

by Andrea Widburg

 

Original Article

 

 

 

[GOBUFFALO716]

3 minutes ago, B-Man said:

It seems that the Wuhan virus’s risks have been grossly exaggerated

by Andrea Widburg

 

Original Article

 

 

 

Ask the 190,000 dead Americans if it was grossly exaggerated.

[bilzfancy]

5 minutes ago, B-Man said:

It seems that the Wuhan virus’s risks have been grossly exaggerated

by Andrea Widburg

 

Original Article

 

 

 

Do the math, that means just a little over 11,000 died from the virus, that didn't have underlying conditions

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

14 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

 

The problem I have with your logic is that if “we” just acted responsibly at the outset of this mess there’s a very good chance that we would be in a much better position right now.  So, unfortunately, because we engaged in half measures, refused to wear masks, and to a certain point dabbled in magic and bleach and direct-to-lung Lysol ideas as potential silver bullets, we may have to go through another shutdown this fall.  It absolutely sucks.  And I feel terribly for those who will be hurt by it,  But it may fall into the “short term pain, long term gain” category.  Otherwise we’re just going to be overrun.  

I reject your speculation. We’ve never gone full measure, no one supports full measure, and we’ll never know anything about anything because it’s all based on speculation, not reality. 
 

Using the logic dictated by the fear mongers, the reality is protestors caused many, many, many deaths, likely the majority of deaths in the country.  
 

 

[spartacus]

2 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

I reject your speculation. We’ve never gone full measure, no one supports full measure, and we’ll never know anything about anything because it’s all based on speculation, not reality. 
 

Using the logic dictated by the fear mongers, the reality is protestors caused many, many, many deaths, likely the majority of deaths in the country.  
 

 

 

none of these containment measures are based in science and none of them will stop the virus

 

if sick people were not forced into nursing homes to kill thousands, this virus would be a non-event

 

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, spartacus said:

what's astounding?

the PCR testing is doing exactly what is was designed to do

identify coronavirus genetic materrial in one's body - after multiplying that material 35 TRILLION times

doesn't matter that COVID-19 has nothing to to do with the results

 

it's not a coinicidence that the CDC changed the PCR specs in June from doubling of 35x to 45x

this increased the times the genetic material was multiplied from 5 billion to 35 trillion

right about the same time as the "2nd wave" hit with new cases everywhere

yet still nobody sick

 

 

Do you have a link to that claim about the CDC changing its spec in June? I'd like to read about that. 

[SectionC3]

7 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

I reject your speculation. We’ve never gone full measure, no one supports full measure, and we’ll never know anything about anything because it’s all based on speculation, not reality. 
 

Using the logic dictated by the fear mongers, the reality is protestors caused many, many, many deaths, likely the majority of deaths in the country.  
 

 

 

I’m not sure with what you take issue.  We agree that the response to this point has been a series of half measures.  Your compliant with respect to the “protests” is not founded upon data.  One must wonder why you have taken issue with those gatherings when there have been other, large-scale collections in which the crowd easily outnumbered that gathered at an aforementioned protest.  Off the top of my head, I submit that the recent Sturgis gathering fits that bill, as does even President Trump’s ill-attended Tulsa rally.  So I assume that you believe that the decisions to hold those events was utterly irresponsible and representative of poor leadership.  

6 minutes ago, spartacus said:

 

none of these containment measures are based in science and none of them will stop the virus

 

if sick people were not forced into nursing homes to kill thousands, this virus would be a non-event

 

Except for, you know, the people who were down for the count for months and who have, among other things, lung scarring. 

[KD in CA]

Just in case you need a reminder of what's been happening in all those GOP-led states.....

 

 

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fcases-in-us.html#cases

[spartacus]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

Do you have a link to that claim about the CDC changing its spec in June? I'd like to read about that. 

I got the info from the CDC site back in June

 

Could not find current instructions for use 

You may have better luck

 

 

 

Now they have info on new test to search for covid and the flu in the same test

Since they don't advertise what test is being used- be sure the media will have a field day with these new test results for the flu  to be used to inflate the covid test #s

CDC’s Diagnostic Multiplex Assay for Flu and COVID-19

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/multiplex.html

 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

1 hour ago, SectionC3 said:

 

I’m not sure with what you take issue.  We agree that the response to this point has been a series of half measures.  Your compliant with respect to the “protests” is not founded upon data.  One must wonder why you have taken issue with those gatherings when there have been other, large-scale collections in which the crowd easily outnumbered that gathered at an aforementioned protest.  Off the top of my head, I submit that the recent Sturgis gathering fits that bill, as does even President Trump’s ill-attended Tulsa rally.  So I assume that you believe that the decisions to hold those events was utterly irresponsible and representative of poor leadership.  

Except for, you know, the people who were down for the count for months and who have, among other things, lung scarring. 

Welp, you made the initial point, in my opinion it was an overly simplistic version of “Why can’t we all just get along” which for most people means “ Do what I want and we’ll get along”.   
 

Your question about protests v Sturgis is reasonable, and I’m happy to address it.  Had the call for a total lockdown been observed strictly, I would be bagging on the Sturgis crowd.  The fact is that long before Sturgis, there were mass gatherings of people across the country.   There was precious little outcry at the mass gatherings, while those with the inside scoop suggested a family Memorial Day gathering of 11+ was exceptionally dangerous, and that gathering together to celebrate the life of someone lost was the beginning of the end of civilization.  On the other hand, Home Depot and the like we’re wide open for business, subject to a max of 50 so folks could buy their petunias and tomato seeds for the backyard garden. 
 

As for the data set, I’m not sure what you’re seeing.  Infection rate and death count increased in conjunction with the mass gatherings.  Is that not true? 
 

Anyway, I’m 100% comfortable with lawful and non-violent protest.  I have friends who I disagree with on issues that protest, I respect many of the people who stand for a cause.   IMO, though, it seems silly to debate 10,000+ people being extremely dangerous on one hand and suggesting the wings of butterflies above another crowd of 10,000 creates a containment zone that is COVID free.  
 

 

 

[keepthefaith]

22 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

Welp, you made the initial point, in my opinion it was an overly simplistic version of “Why can’t we all just get along” which for most people means “ Do what I want and we’ll get along”.   
 

Your question about protests v Sturgis is reasonable, and I’m happy to address it.  Had the call for a total lockdown been observed strictly, I would be bagging on the Sturgis crowd.  The fact is that long before Sturgis, there were mass gatherings of people across the country.   There was precious little outcry at the mass gatherings, while those with the inside scoop suggested a family Memorial Day gathering of 11+ was exceptionally dangerous, and that gathering together to celebrate the life of someone lost was the beginning of the end of civilization.  On the other hand, Home Depot and the like we’re wide open for business, subject to a max of 50 so folks could buy their petunias and tomato seeds for the backyard garden. 
 

As for the data set, I’m not sure what you’re seeing.  Infection rate and death count increased in conjunction with the mass gatherings.  Is that not true? 
 

Anyway, I’m 100% comfortable with lawful and non-violent protest.  I have friends who I disagree with on issues that protest, I respect many of the people who stand for a cause.   IMO, though, it seems silly to debate 10,000+ people being extremely dangerous on one hand and suggesting the wings of butterflies above another crowd of 10,000 creates a containment zone that is COVID free.  
 

 

 

 

Do protests of any kind (including peaceful) even move the policy needle in the direction of those protesting?  If so, are the policy changes effective or desirable?  Can anyone provide an example where protests and protests alone resulted in something good? 

Edited August 31, 2020 by keepthefaith

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

2 hours ago, GOBUFFALO716 said:

Eagles owner slams Trump over COVID response 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/wellness/philadelphia-eagles-owner-jeffrey-lurie-calls-us-coronavirus-response-e2-80-98a-tragic-embarrassment-e2-80-99/ar-BB18yyWa

 

 

Interestingly, he’s willing to risk many, many more lives in pursuit of his own personal gain.   He’s one of the architects of a few hundred people getting together repeatedly over 6 months in a blood sport that encourages extremely close contact and the exchange of massive amounts of bodily fluids.  
 

 

[SectionC3]

22 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

Welp, you made the initial point, in my opinion it was an overly simplistic version of “Why can’t we all just get along” which for most people means “ Do what I want and we’ll get along”.   
 

Your question about protests v Sturgis is reasonable, and I’m happy to address it.  Had the call for a total lockdown been observed strictly, I would be bagging on the Sturgis crowd.  The fact is that long before Sturgis, there were mass gatherings of people across the country.   There was precious little outcry at the mass gatherings, while those with the inside scoop suggested a family Memorial Day gathering of 11+ was exceptionally dangerous, and that gathering together to celebrate the life of someone lost was the beginning of the end of civilization.  On the other hand, Home Depot and the like we’re wide open for business, subject to a max of 50 so folks could buy their petunias and tomato seeds for the backyard garden. 
 

As for the data set, I’m not sure what you’re seeing.  Infection rate and death count increased in conjunction with the mass gatherings.  Is that not true? 
 

Anyway, I’m 100% comfortable with lawful and non-violent protest.  I have friends who I disagree with on issues that protest, I respect many of the people who stand for a cause.   IMO, though, it seems silly to debate 10,000+ people being extremely dangerous on one hand and suggesting the wings of butterflies above another crowd of 10,000 creates a containment zone that is COVID free.  
 

 

 

 

1.  infection rate and death count have increased concomitantly with protests.  But where is the data linking protests to that increase?  Could it be that refusal to social distance and refusal to wear masks in “none-protest” contexts contributed to the uptick?

 

2.  Along those lines, you assume that nobody (or at least that a critical mass) of protesters did not wear masks.   I don’t know that we have data to that effect, either.  Assuming (safely, I think) that political fault lines apply here, my guess is that the vast majority of protesters were masked.  Sturgis . . . I doubt.  Tulsa we know the opposite to be true.  

 

3.  Your point about hypocrisy regarding lack of outcry is fair.  But you’re also hypocritical in your defense of Sturgis.  It’s essentially an “our wrong is actually right because someone else was wrong, too” argument.  And, you seem to contend that the protests spawned a significant increase in infection rate and relevant deaths.  By that logic, Surgis should be condemned.  And by the same logic, Tulsa (mention of which you conspicuously avoided) was a travesty of, among other things, leadership. 

9 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

Interestingly, he’s willing to risk many, many more lives in pursuit of his own personal gain.   He’s one of the architects of a few hundred people getting together repeatedly over 6 months in a blood sport that encourages extremely close contact and the exchange of massive amounts of bodily fluids.  
 

 

 

I don’t disagree with this, but by the same logic you have to stand for the shutdown of schools, bars, restaurants, and gyms until this is over.  And it is reasonable for him to complain that his business model has been significantly disrupted by the federal action and inaction with respect to the pandemic.  

Edited August 31, 2020 by SectionC3

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

17 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

 

1.  infection rate and death count have increased concomitantly with protests.  But where is the data linking protests to that increase?  Could it be that refusal to social distance and refusal to wear masks in “none-protest” contexts contributed to the uptick?

 

2.  Along those lines, you assume that nobody (or at least that a critical mass) of protesters did not wear masks.   I don’t know that we have data to that effect, either.  Assuming (safely, I think) that political fault lines apply here, my guess is that the vast majority of protesters were masked.  Sturgis . . . I doubt.  Tulsa we know the opposite to be true.  

 

3.  Your point about hypocrisy regarding lack of outcry is fair.  But you’re also hypocritical in your defense of Sturgis.  It’s essentially an “our wrong is actually right because someone else was wrong, too” argument.  And, you seem to contend that the protests spawned a significant increase in infection rate and relevant deaths.  By that logic, Surgis should be condemned.  And by the same logic, Tulsa (mention of which you conspicuously avoided) was a travesty of, among other things, leadership. 

 

I don’t disagree with this, but by the same logic you have to stand for the shutdown of schools, bars, restaurants, and gyms until this is over.  And it is reasonable for him to complain that his business model has been significantly disrupted by the federal action and inaction with respect to the pandemic.  

As I’ve said many times Sect, I’m a simple guy.  I reject the notion that I need data beyond what’s readily available to come to a reasonable conclusion.  
 

I’m not the harbinger of doom suggesting church gatherings of 15 socially distanced and masked protests create unreasonable risk where gatherings of 25,000 people gathered in close proximity do not, masked or not.  

 

I’m not the one suggesting haircuts posed a clear and present danger to humanity, or that thousands of protestors somehow magically appear masked and virus free at a protest.  I’ll say it again—- people come to protest via all means of transport, touching and interacting with many people along the way.  They talk, they sleep, they eat, they consume, they cry, they rage, they defecate and more than likely urinate wherever possible.  They likely boink like the dickens too, mostly because that is what people do. 
 

I did not defend Sturgis, I’m not defending Sturgis now.  I simply applied the logic that ultimately, to gather or not gather is largely a political decision, not a medical one.  That leads to believe we have been bamboozled on a massive scale, or, in the alternative, political leaders in support of shutdowns for gyms but massive protests for individuals are all about culling the herd.  
 

If large protests are not dangerous, it stands to reason that large rally’s are not.