Reality Check Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, bilzfancy said: What's gonna happen if and when this virus mutates, like most viruses do? It will weaken, as all viruses do... The evidence suggests that it is weak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, BillStime said: Hmmm... working at the White House is like a revolving door for this admin. Why is that? Wait a minute, are you implying that the guy whose catch phrase prior to running for president was 'You're fired' has fired people? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reality Check Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: where does that guy get those numbers? Any idea? Great headline, prolly true..but interwebs and all, not buying all in based on a tweet i had several questions about the chart, but my question was deemed to political i guess in the other thread. What is your interpretation of the chart? I suck at reading charts, love The Ethical Skeptic on Twitter, can never figure out what they are trying to show either! I posted the article with all the data a few pages back... Not the Zerohedge one, but the other article... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillStime Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said: Wait a minute, are you implying that the guy whose catch phrase prior to running for president was 'You're fired' has fired people? Always someone else's fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, BillStime said: Hmmm... working at the White House is like a revolving door for this admin. Why is that? WTF??? and that relates to Fauci and his wrong proclamations how? 4 minutes ago, Reality Check said: I posted the article with all the data a few pages back... Not the Zerohedge one, but the other article... Did't see it, will look now. TY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, BillStime said: Always someone else's fault. Admitting that he is widely known for firing people is blaming someone else? Is there a bug in your coding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 (edited) 50 minutes ago, shoshin said: The thing I can't figure out, and @Hapless Bills Fan just asked me this too, is why the normal line is higher than the actuals. I don't see an explanation on the CDC website but I'm looking into it in my part-time job as a COVID-19 data scientist. The way I read it is this: Total deaths are returning to their normal level. One way to interpret the chart is, "Hey situation normal, stop worrying." My take as someone who doesn't study any of this is: "We have a lot more people dying from Covid but that's offset by (1) people not getting other transmissible diseases due to masks/distancing, (2) lots of other causes of deaths are down (think: car accidents for example)." Now there may be some other causes of death increasing due to people not getting medical care as well. But in total, the number of deaths is approaching its "normal range." I'll post this over there too. Edited July 15, 2020 by shoshin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 47 minutes ago, shoshin said: The thing I can't figure out, and @Hapless Bills Fan just asked me this too, is why the normal line is higher than the actuals. I don't see an explanation on the CDC website but I'm looking into it in my part-time job as a COVID-19 data scientist. Very good question. If it isn't an error or just something with the way the charts are drawn, pretty sure it is the top of the error bar for the range of how many deaths would be expected at any given point in time. Once the total deaths exceed the confindence interval for what had been expected (aka they're outliers) is when they're considered "excessive." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 (edited) 33 minutes ago, bilzfancy said: What's gonna happen if and when this virus mutates, like most viruses do? Usually--not always--viruses mutate to weaker variants. Coronaviruses are slow mutators in general. Edited July 15, 2020 by shoshin 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillStime Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 22 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: WTF??? and that relates to Fauci and his wrong proclamations how? Did't see it, will look now. TY The Trump admin can spin this any way they like but the WORLD knows its not Fauci's fault but all on Trump. Trump signs off on EVERYTHING that comes out of the WH - and that included what Fauci says. 11 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Admitting that he is widely known for firing people is blaming someone else? Is there a bug in your coding? Trump is impossible to work for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Taro T said: Very good question. If it isn't an error or just something with the way the charts are drawn, pretty sure it is the top of the error bar for the range of how many deaths would be expected at any given point in time. Once the total deaths exceed the confindence interval for what had been expected (aka they're outliers) is when they're considered "excessive." I think you have it. Thanks. The Yellow line isn't normal: It's excessive. (Here's the answer to your message @Hapless Bills Fan--sorry to keep dragging you into the PPP toilet. I think some of the recent expulsions have cleaned up the behavior a little so it's not quite as bad lately with the insult volume.) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Just now, BillStime said: The Trump admin can spin this any way they like but the WORLD knows its not Fauci's fault but all on Trump. Trump signs off on EVERYTHING that comes out of the WH - and that included what Fauci says. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillStime Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, fansince88 said: Trump is the one driving the hoax and fake news bro... but nice try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 30 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Admitting that he is widely known for firing people is blaming someone else? Is there a bug in your coding? ...isn't that the norm we see in the private sector, not so much as blaming someone else, but terminations for inadequate job performance?....despite the kicking and screaming, isn't he trying to run the government more from a business perspective?....way too many parasitic lifers within the Federal ranks who think they are protected......George Eastman founded Eastman Kodak on a "cradle to grave" employment philosophy.....and where are they now?....peak employment in Rochester was 67,000....now it's 6,700 IF lucky........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 (edited) This guy should be head of WHO. Edited July 15, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
123719bwiqrb Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, shoshin said: The way I read it is this: Total deaths are returning to their normal level. One way to interpret the chart is, "Hey situation normal, stop worrying." My take as someone who doesn't study any of this is: "We have a lot more people dying from Covid but that's offset by (1) people not getting other transmissible diseases due to masks/distancing, (2) lots of other causes of deaths are down (think: car accidents for example)." Now there may be some other causes of death increasing due to people not getting medical care as well. But in total, the number of deaths is approaching its "normal range." I'll post this over there too. I agree. Good summary for the why. Edited July 15, 2020 by 123719bwiqrb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 3 hours ago, Magox said: Yes I saw that last week. I was going to post about it. This is truly something else, it shows that overall deaths from all causes are less than what they normally are COVID or no COVID. I wonder if that is just a small statistical blip. Hmmm. I'm going to need to put some thought into that. That is a very interesting theory and I think you may be on to something. Because we do know that the average age of the COVID death is 81 with 2.7 comorbidites, which means that many already had one foot in the grave. It would make sense that the Virus accelerated their death by a few months which could plausibly explain why you are seeing less overall deaths. Essentially it front loaded the deaths. They were paid forward. I hadn't thought of that. Good stuff LB3. I need to have that marinate for a bit and see if I can poke some holes into that theory. Ya sadly . But people would fight for others even if those couple months are precious to them. But I think the key role is helping immune system and health as well for older people. Help build there immune system as well other things.Plus younger people need to keep there immune system (others things for health) going good too. Then I think virus cannot be to badly for all. But problem lies asking all on earth to get healthy. Having a good immune system fights off virus off. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 1 hour ago, shoshin said: I think you have it. Thanks. The Yellow line isn't normal: It's excessive. (Here's the answer to your message @Hapless Bills Fan--sorry to keep dragging you into the PPP toilet. I think some of the recent expulsions have cleaned up the behavior a little so it's not quite as bad lately with the insult volume.) You should probably tread very lightly there. You pretty much stick to this thread and don't get to see what goes on in the other threads I assume. In the last few months PPP has had a small invasion of "new" posters that have tried to gang up on DR specifically and interrupt any discussions he had going on. As I understand it DR's transgression was an outlier and not an accumulation of faux pas. He has put a ton of time in on this board and until recently had the patience of Job when dealing with people who didn't know anything about what they were trying to discuss. 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 SHOCKING NEWS FROM THE WORLD OF SCIENCE: Types of flu people encounter in childhood may affect susceptibility to different flu strains later in life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 DUE TO THE PANDEMIC? OR DUE TO THE RESPONSE TO THE PANDEMIC? About 5,000 heart attack sufferers in England missed out on lifesaving hospital treatment due to pandemic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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