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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19


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4 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Yesterday, Sunday, Covid rested. No state registered triple digits deaths. Ten states were in double digits meaning FORTY states had single digits or zero deaths. It’ll rebound a bit for sure when the medical examiners come back to work but the pattern is clear. Lots of cases yes, lots of deaths no. Poor reporting...definitely!

 

2 minutes ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

Most Sunday deaths in over a month. Bracing for this week. It's going to be difficult for much of the country.

 

Schizo PPP posting.  2 posts back to back painting the same topic in a completely different light.  This has never happened before, must be the virus eating peoples brains.

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1 minute ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

 

Schizo PPP posting.  2 posts back to back painting the same topic in a completely different light.  This has never happened before, must be the virus eating peoples brains.

 

Sundays are always low. Sundays should be compared to past Sundays.

 

The most important metric, though, is the 7 day moving average, hence my thinking this week will be difficult for most of the country.

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1 minute ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

 

Sundays are always low. Sundays should be compared to past Sundays.

 

The most important metric, though, is the 7 day moving average, hence my thinking this week will be difficult for most of the country.

I give a report every day but don’t have time to go back and look over each week. Let me recap for you: The virus has moved across the country like a cold front from NE to SW and in the process of doing so has either one, become less fatal, two, has morphed into a strain that hits younger people and is thus less fatal, or three, we’ve become WAY better at treating it so it is....less fatal! 

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54 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Older people dying of the virus doesn't count.

 

The average profile of the person who dies from COVID-19 is 81 years old with 2.7 comorbidites.  Obviously they count, but the vast majority of people who have died of COVID-19 already had one foot in the grave.   That may sound harsh, but I'm not a politician, I'm just speaking facts.

 

 

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53 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

We still have very little reporting on how many older people died OF the virus than WITH the virus. 

This is why I don't trust death numbers, someone has a heart attack and dies, has the virus, it's a covid19 death, car accident, fatal injuries, had the virus, though asystemic, counts as a covid19 death

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1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

The average profile of the person who dies from COVID-19 is 81 years old with 2.7 comorbidites.  Obviously they count, but the vast majority of people who have died of COVID-19 already had one foot in the grave.   That may sound harsh, but I'm not a politician, I'm just speaking facts.

 

 

 

The Nazis had a similar view of who is worth surviving. I'm just speaking facts.

Then there are all the younger folks who are surviving with longterm health issues. No big deal, though.

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13 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

The Nazis had a similar view of who is worth surviving. I'm just speaking facts.

Then there are all the younger folks who are surviving with longterm health issues. No big deal, though.

 

You aren't speaking facts, you are speaking gibberish as you always do.  That's what weak minded leftists do when they have no argument - they spout words like "Nazi's, racism" and other similar words to attempt to shut down debate without really debating.  I've already expressed my concern for the most vulnerable countless times on this website, but we are talking about the people who are dying.  And the majority of the people who are dying are people who were about to die.   When public policy makers have to craft policies that affect all their populace, they have to take into account all data points, such as the one that I just referenced.   If people like you were in charge who don't operate on facts but rather anecdotal emotional scare stories, bad public policy would be crafted.    

 

Also, there is no statistical widespread evidence to support "younger folks who are surviving longterm health issues.".  Only anecdotes.  

 

What I advocate is much more humane for the entire populace than what you advocate.   If we had it your way, there would be a lot more poverty, worse overall health outcomes and economic devastation.  So even though what you think may be more humane in fact is worse from both a public health and economic standpoint.

 

 

Edited by Magox
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11 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

The Nazis had a similar view of who is worth surviving. I'm just speaking facts.

Then there are all the younger folks who are surviving with longterm health issues. No big deal, though.

You lose; Godwin's Law.

Edited by 123719bwiqrb
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1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

The average profile of the person who dies from COVID-19 is 81 years old with 2.7 comorbidites.  Obviously they count, but the vast majority of people who have died of COVID-19 already had one foot in the grave.   That may sound harsh, but I'm not a politician, I'm just speaking facts.

 

 

 

Speaking facts to Kemp.

 

 

Like pissing in the wind.

 

His next response? NAZIS! :lol:

 

The simple fact is that deaths are way down, even when you give consideration to the number of deaths that were not directly COVID related, but still get attributed to COVID.

 

Why, it's almost like these people NEED to ignore facts so the economy can schitt the bed and they can blame Trump heading into November.

 

 

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We've discussed how certain areas could be reaching "burnout" levels.   Estimates for that vary, from everything that I have observed I think it begins at around the 15%-20% level.  Where previous Coronavirus T cell immunities and COVID antibodies hit a certain threshold where the virus begins to taper off and eventually flattens out to a very low baseline.

 

There is a chance that may already be happening in Dade county.  If you see Dade County has 67k confirmed infections.  Depends on what you think the under count of confirmed infections to actual infections truly are.  I would have said before all the huge amount of testing that only 10% were being fully captured, but my guess is that now with the increased testing we are probably around 1 in 6.      But since this data was captured from inception to yesterday, this probably captured 1 in 7 or 1 in 8.  This has 67k confirmed infections...If you were put in a multiple of 7, you multiply 67k by 7 and you get about 470k.   Dade county has a population of 2.7 million people.   That would be around 17% of the Dade county population would have contracted the virus.   Which would put you right in that 15-20% burnout range.  That burnout range is when things begin to taper off and eventually Burnout. 

 

image.thumb.png.21c0847da5a0f45273e9dcbb4b2ba792.png

 

There are signs of this beginning to happen.

 

I wasn't able to get it all in this post...I have the continued portions on the next post.

 

 

Edited by Magox
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3 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

Older people dying of the virus doesn't count.

 

 

 

When it comes time to deciding on whether or not to ruin the lives of our kids and their education especially poor, minority communities it absolutely counts.......as data that says we should be open as normal.

 

 

No one wants to answer the question from yesterday about how 20 plus percent of NY was saturated by early April means it was in the schools.  And tragedy did not occur 

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Nothing to see I guess.....we are determined to find out why Florida is at the same saturation as New York yet only have 1/8 the deaths.  So...look at those cases!!!

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image.thumb.png.6ea1f2033a92646b0392040d23c2b221.png

 

 

If you see here, in Florida the Emergency room visits and symptoms of COVID related hospitalizations are all beginning to crest.

 

And then you have this:

 

 

 

It's still too early to definitively say one way or another.  But the percent positive rate has begun to taper off over the past week and the Emergency room COVID symptom related visits have begun to plateau as well.   Hopefully this continues, if so, then I think it strongly supports the theory of once it reaches around that 15-20% area of COVID infections that the virus begins to burnout.

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7 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

 

When it comes time to deciding on whether or not to ruin the lives of our kids and their education especially poor, minority communities it absolutely counts.......as data that says we should be open as normal.

 

 

No one wants to answer the question from yesterday about how 20 plus percent of NY was saturated by early April means it was in the schools.  And tragedy did not occur 

.

Nothing to see I guess.....we are determined to find out why Florida is at the same saturation as New York yet only have 1/8 the deaths.  So...look at those cases!!!

 

 

Truth be told, I don't think Miami Dade county is at the same saturation levels of New York City.  I think Miami is probably somewhere in that 15-20% range of COVID infections.  Whereas I think New York city is probably around 20-30% range.    But your argument stands.

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