The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Chef Jim]

3 hours ago, Gene Frenkle said:

 

That's like half the country.

Good. Herd needs a good culling. 

52 minutes ago, BillStime said:

 

 

Apples and oranges. Again you have no clue what PPP was do you?  

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

It spares the young but they can be carriers.

 

 

The science has said the opposite (and I wasn't comparing viruses I was commenting on future alarmism) 

 

School kids don’t appear to transmit the new coronavirus to peers or teachers, a French study found, weighing in on the crucial topic of children’s role in propagating Covid-19.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-23/school-children-don-t-spread-coronavirus-french-study-shows

 

 

Schools should be full normal. 

 

 

Edited July 10, 2020 by Big Blitz

[Doc Brown]

11 hours ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

Do you honestly believe it's a fight that can be won?

 

I don't see it. What we're going to see is what the media is driving: the scary COVID numbers borne through increased testing will shut everyone down again. People will be out of work. Unemployment jumps. Economy schitts the bed. They blame all of it on Trump. Biden wins, Dems take House and Senate, and America spends the next four years lunging toward the socialist state, while defunding police, until people are too afraid to do anything other than lay low and stay home.

 

So I hate to admit, but the biggest bullhorn wins this, and the left owns the biggest bullhorn. The country is burnt toast. It's time to fend for yourself and hope you live long enought to get to see the looks on the leftists faces when they realize they've turned the US into Venezuela.

Yes.  The guy who helped pass the crime bill (he'll pry increase police funding), invade Iraq, took money from bank lobbyists for over 40 years, and helped pass a national version of Romneycare will lead us to us being Venezuala.  Give me a break. Bernie Sanders was rightfully rejected during the primaries just like McGovern was walloped in the '72 election to help bring an end to the hippie jam festival.  We're still a center right country and will remain that way. 

2 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

The science has said the opposite (and I wasn't comparing viruses I was commenting on future alarmism) 

 

School kids don’t appear to transmit the new coronavirus to peers or teachers, a French study found, weighing in on the crucial topic of children’s role in propagating Covid-19.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-23/school-children-don-t-spread-coronavirus-french-study-shows

 

 

Schools should be full normal. 

 

 

I agree that all elementary schools should be open with little precautions based on the available evidence (teachers may be hesitant given elementary schools are usually germ breeding grounds for colds and seasonal flu).  A little more cautious approach should pry be taken for middle and high schools.  Here's a decent breakdown about what we know so far about schools reopening in other countries.

 

You quoted a college football program though and college kids seem spread the virus just as efficiently as the rest of us.

[Big Blitz]

23 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Yes.  The guy who helped pass the crime bill (he'll pry increase police funding), invade Iraq, took money from bank lobbyists for over 40 years, and helped pass a national version of Romneycare will lead us to us being Venezuala.  Give me a break. Bernie Sanders was rightfully rejected during the primaries just like McGovern was walloped in the '72 election to help bring an end to the hippie jam festival.  We're still a center right country and will remain that way. 

I agree that all elementary schools should be open with little precautions based on the available evidence (teachers may be hesitant given elementary schools are usually germ breeding grounds for colds and seasonal flu).  A little more cautious approach should pry be taken for middle and high schools.  Here's a decent breakdown about what we know so far about schools reopening in other countries.

 

You quoted a college football program though and college kids seem spread the virus just as efficiently as the rest of us.

 

 

If I'm in charge that's what I'd do.

 

K-8 full normal.  

 

High school slow reopen with plan to go full normal mid year.  I'd lesson classroom time....if you have a school that does 90 minute blocks, they need to end.  45 minutes.  In, out.  Find a way to get half the kids in the building to see their teachers each day they are in.  

[shoshin]

9 hours ago, Magox said:

 

People are nearly fully out in New York City, Italy, France, Belgium, Sweden and the U.K. and they were all hard hit and they seem to have hit that “burn out” level and are showing no signs of increased infections. 
 

 

PA back on the rise.

 

The reason they can resume normalcy in those countries and Canada is likely less because they got to herd immunity (in most of those countries, the outbreaks were geographically pretty limited) than because their cases are now so incredibly low. They had a unified plan: serious shutdown, slow reopen, complaint masking and distancing, etc. They did what we wouldn't. We are trying a different plan with long term consequences TBD but at 900 new deaths per day recently. 

 

Quote

Same goes for Boston, New Jersey and Connecticut.  The infections have plummeted and no signs of re-emerging.

 

The places that are most risk of increased infections are the places that haven’t burnt out and ironically the hottest temperatures. 

 

 

 

NJ has been in the top 5 in deaths almost every day this week. I can't find any report or data to suggest a data dump but given the low cases, it has to be but I can't back that up. Someone in the media is not digging in on this. The rest are the places you'd expect with the overburdened hospitals and cases that won't go away, and that are starting to consider shutdowns and enacting them again. 

 

Overall, we have gone from 500 and less deaths per day to nearly 1000 in a week--that is some jump.

 

 

Newsome never thumped his chest on CA's success. Can't say the same for DeSantis and Abbott. 

 

Was this avoidable with a single plan (see most EU countries), consistent messaging on masks and distancing, and idiots not making defeating Covid into a party-driven war? 

 

Imagine, if you will, making defeating a disease about party politics. This special kind of idiocy is something you can see play out, right here, daily, on The Twilight Zone a football discussion board.

Edited July 10, 2020 by shoshin

[shoshin]

Simple science. Good title to this series: It's okay to be Smart.

 

 

 

He has an episode on vaccines too but I don't want to be too extreme. 

Edited July 10, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

PA back on the rise.

 

The reason they can resume normalcy in those countries and Canada is likely less because they got to herd immunity (in most of those countries, the outbreaks were geographically pretty limited) than because their cases are now so incredibly low. They had a unified plan: serious shutdown, slow reopen, complaint masking and distancing, etc. They did what we wouldn't. We are trying a different plan with long term consequences TBD but at 900 new deaths per day recently. 

 

 

NJ has been in the top 5 in deaths almost every day this week. I can't find any report or data to suggest a data dump but given the low cases, it has to be but I can't back that up. Someone in the media is not digging in on this. The rest are the places you'd expect with the overburdened hospitals and cases that won't go away, and that are starting to consider shutdowns and enacting them again. 

 

Overall, we have gone from 500 and less deaths per day to nearly 1000 in a week--that is some jump.

 

 

Newsome never thumped his chest on CA's success. Can't say the same for DeSantis and Abbott. 

 

Was this avoidable with a single plan (see most EU countries), consistent messaging on masks and distancing, and idiots not making defeating Covid into a party-driven war? 

 

Imagine, if you will, making defeating a disease about party politics. This special kind of idiocy is something you can see play out, right here, daily, on The Twilight Zone a football discussion board.

 

A) I didn’t mention Pennsylvania

B) New Jersey is seeing no jump up to this point in new cases which indicates the deaths are coming from backlog and older patients (who they have done a terrible job of protecting) that have been hospitalized for months.  

3) we haven’t gone from 500-1000 a day.  You have to look at 7 day moving average and it’s around 600.   Which is what I predicted.  I predicted we would bottom out at around 500 over a month ago and that is EXACTLY where it bottomed out.  I also said two weeks ago that I thought this was the week we would see it increase which it was.  That trend will continue to go higher for the next 4-6 weeks Before it begins to head down.  We will see if that plays out.

4) You don’t understand how this country works.  The only way that you can enforce a “national plan” is by breaking the constitution in which states would be able to challenge it in court.  This is just a bunch of hand wringing from someone who buys into what the media’s hysteria.   That’s what you do, you buy into media panic porn and everything they tell you.   Maybe you can try to critically think for yourself once in a while.  
5). Poor naive shoshin.  Doesn’t believe that the whole hysteria from the media isn’t politically driven.  

[123719bwiqrb]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

Simple science. Good title to this series: It's okay to be Smart.

 

 

 

He has an episode on vaccines too but I don't want to be too extreme. 

 

Simple question - When do we stop wearing them?  If everyone wears them to infinity, we could save maybe half the 30-60k a year that die from the standard flu, right?  

[shoshin]

5 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

Simple question - When do we stop wearing them?  If everyone wears them to infinity, we could save maybe half the 30-60k a year that die from the standard flu, right?  

 

My feeling: How about when we feel confident that hospitals won't be overburdened. We see what's happening in the south. We see cases rising in many NE states. So let's keep trying to keep cases down for a bit. Some areas have been masking for what, 10 weeks so far? Others have barely even started masking. We have had seriously mixed messaging from leadership on masking with a lot of people only coming on board once their states got hit in the last couple of weeks. (Until recently, there were several posters here still saying masks are useless!)

 

And after that, maybe we will be a touch more like Japan and people might be inclined to wear them during worse flu outbreaks. 

Edited July 10, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

Even though I do believe masks help, they certainly aren't the end-all-be-all.

Los Angeles has had the mask mandate since June 18th and Los Angeles county is home of one of the worst if not worst viral infection outbreaks in the country.   This is a folly to believe that masks are THE solution.    

 

When you strip away all the panic porn from the media and their hysterical followers who parrot what they say, the virus is about on par with the common flu for the vast majority of the population.  It sucks that the Virus got here from a country that covered this up, but we are where we are.  Normalization of life has to return, the costs of doing so from both a public health and economic standpoint are much greater than the risks of the Virus itself.  We just have to learn to live with it.   

 

[123719bwiqrb]

10 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

My feeling: How about when we feel confident that hospitals won't be overburdened. We see what's happening in the south. We see cases rising in many NE states. So let's keep trying to keep cases down for a bit. Some areas have been masking for what, 10 weeks so far? Others have barely even started masking. We have had seriously mixed messaging from leadership on masking with a lot of people only coming on board once their states got hit in the last couple of weeks. (Until recently, there were several posters here still saying masks are useless!)

 

And after that, maybe we will be a touch more like Japan and people might be inclined to wear them during worse flu outbreaks. 

 

Fair enough.  They seem to be working in NYS right now. 

 

I just don't ever see them going away, too many airborne threats identified in the world now.  Kind of like wearing your seat belt.

[shoshin]

16 minutes ago, Magox said:

Even though I do believe masks help, they certainly aren't the end-all-be-all.

Los Angeles has had the mask mandate since June 18th and Los Angeles county is home of one of the worst if not worst viral infection outbreaks in the country.   This is a folly to believe that masks are THE solution.    

 

June 18...3 weeks ago June 18? I can't believe it didn't have a HUGE impact in 3 weeks!

 

Quote

 

When you strip away all the panic porn from the media and their hysterical followers who parrot what they say, the virus is about on par with the common flu for the vast majority of the population.  It sucks that the Virus got here from a country that covered this up, but we are where we are.  Normalization of life has to return, the costs of doing so from both a public health and economic standpoint are much greater than the risks of the Virus itself.  We just have to learn to live with it.   

 

 

It is not on par with the common flu unless you maybe believe only in case fatality once contacted (and even there it is more fatal in most studies). It spreads much easier so total fatalities and % hospitalized are much, much higher ESPECIALLY among older and at risk people.

 

"On par with the common flu for the vast majority of the population" is one of the dumbest things you could say. There are over 50 million Americans age 65 or older. And I don't know how many others have the many other risk factors but certainly tens of millions if you include obesity and hypertension. 

 

 

Edited July 10, 2020 by shoshin

[Kemp]

The pandemic has only been with us for 6 months. 

 

Stop blaming Trump for not having a national policy, yet.

 

He has been very busy whining and tweeting.

 

If everyone would only say nice things about him, we could finally start beating the virus.

[shoshin]

17 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

Fair enough.  They seem to be working in NYS right now. 

 

I think the lockdown worked more than the masks to lower cases, and lowering cases leads to less cases. But masks clearly help too.

 

17 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

I just don't ever see them going away, too many airborne threats identified in the world now.  Kind of like wearing your seat belt.

 

I hate them so I won't be wearing them one more minute than makes sense and/or is required. 

[SoCal Deek]

Shosin has started showing the same death chart I’ve been quoting and summarizing for weeks/months now. It’s appreciated! So....I could give my usual daily tally but I won’t. My observation is a simple one: the virus, which is passed from person to person, has obviously moved from the NE to the SW corner of the country. Much like a cold front on a weather map. It’s definitely NOT random. And it’s definitely NOT linked to politics. As others have cited, the outlier is New Jersey but again it’s an outlier.

The nonsense you read about Trump’s Tulsa rally is nonsense. The nonsense you used to read about how great California was doing was, nonsense. The nonsense about this being a second wave is nonsense. The virus is doing exactly what contagious viruses do. And I’m guessing it would have done it sooner had the country not stopped virtually all domestic air travel. 

Edited July 10, 2020 by SoCal Deek

[123719bwiqrb]

9 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Shosin has started showing the same death chart I’ve been quoting and summarizing for weeks/months now. It’s appreciated! So....I could give my usual daily tally but I won’t. My observation is a simple one: the virus, which is passed from person to person, has obviously moved from the NE to the SW corner of the country. Much like a cold front on a weather map. It’s definitely NOT random. And it’s definitely NOT linked to politics. As others have cited, the outlier is New Jersey but again it’s an outlier.

The nonsense you read about Trump’s Tulsa rally is nonsense. The nonsense you used to read about how great California was doing was, nonsense. The nonsense about this being a second wave is nonsense. The virus is doing exactly what contagious viruses do. And I’m guessing it would have done it sooner had the country not stopped virtually all domestic air travel. 

 

I agree, you guys are posting good stuff.  I give people gruff about inconsistencies in their thinking, but things change fast and it''s hard to know who you can trust.

 

Ultimately, we will achieve those evil words (herd immunity).  I'd guess it will still circulate thru the population from time to time, but NYC hasn't seen an uptick, and I'd like to believe it is because they hit a level where the transmission goes way way down.  Maybe the "immunity" will only last 6 months?  Waiting games suck, but we better get this understood by the end of 2020.  What else does Fauci and his ilk have on their collective plates?

Edited July 10, 2020 by 123719bwiqrb

[shoshin]

11 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Shosin has started showing the same death chart I’ve been quoting and summarizing for weeks/months now. It’s appreciated! So....I could give my usual daily tally but I won’t. My observation is a simple one: the virus, which is passed from person to person, has obviously moved from the NE to the SW corner of the country. Much like a cold front on a weather map. It’s definitely NOT random. And it’s definitely NOT linked to politics. As others have cited, the outlier is New Jersey but again it’s an outlier.

 

 

I don't know WTF is going on in NJ. Cases are super low, deaths are very high. So many inconsistent data points throughout this. The numbers don't lie but nor do they tell the clearest tale. 

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

I agree, you guys are posting good stuff.  I give people gruff about inconsistencies in their thinking, but things change fast and it''s hard to know who you can trust.

 

Ultimately, we will achieve those evil words (herd immunity).  I'd guess it will still circulate thru the population from time to time, but NYC hasn't seen an uptick, and I'd like to believe it is because they hit a level where the transmission goes way way down.  Maybe it will only last 6 months?  Waiting games suck.

 

Thanks for the thanks. It’s really rare around here. I’ve tried to remain utterly unemotionally consistent in my reporting. I wish the national media did the same....but there’s little profit in that. I’ve just been looking at the number of fatalities through it all. Cases are WAY TOO variable. My conclusions would be totally different if the high numbers showed a different pattern, but they don’t. The ‘hot spots’ are not spots at all! They’re entire contiguous regions. First the NY/NE metro corridor and now the SW. They’re also not related to politics. The party affiliations for the governors is NOT the common denominator.

[Gary M]

10 hours ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

 

I think scientists agree herd immunity for covid would be in the 65-75% range for exposures to the virus.

 

 

You're wrong, they don't agree, I have seen estimates of 15% to 43% never saw 65-75%

[plenzmd1]

35 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

I don't know WTF is going on in NJ. Cases are super low, deaths are very high. So many inconsistent data points throughout this. The numbers don't lie but nor do they tell the clearest tale. 

A week or so back, Jersey added 600 some deaths that had previously not been noted as Covid, to Covid. My guess is that is continuing to occur. Frustrating for sure