transplantbillsfan Posted January 3, 2020 Author Share Posted January 3, 2020 https://theathletic.com/1505120/2020/01/02/nfl-wild-card-picks-against-the-spread-and-five-favorite-prop-bets?source=shared-article The Bills’ offense has actually been better on the road (12th in DVOA) than at home (31st) this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 I like the idea of playing in Houston because they have a dome. In our only dome game this year our offense going against a good defense had one of it's best games. I'm starting to wonder if perhaps Daboll instituted a dome offense for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 18 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Already established the defenses Allen faced at home were very much similar to the defenses he played on the road. 2 top 5 defenses at home. 2 top 5 defenses on the road. 4 top 10 defenses at home. 4 top 10 defenses on the road. What are the other factors? Let's look at the breakdown of these teams (without the AFC East since we play them both home and away). I agree with you that they seem fairly evenly dispersed as far as records and defenses go. Without AFC East opponents Home Teams: Bengals (2-14), Eagles (9-7), Redskins (3-13), Broncos (7-9), Ravens (14-2) (Two playoff teams. Combined record: (35-45)) Away Teams: Giants (4-12), Titans without Tannehill (9-7), Browns (6-10), Cowboys (8-8), Steelers (8-8) (One playoff team. Combined record: (35-45)) The home record does have two playoff teams (including THE best AFC team in the Ravens) compared to just one in the away teams. That's a factor. That one playoff team we faced on the road was the Titans, who had not yet switched to Tannehill. Another factor is that we played the Bengals, Eagles, and Redskins earlier on in the season before Allen had settled and stopped turning the ball over so much. The Giants and Titans were early on as well, but the Giants are a bad team and the Titans were not the same team when we faced them. So in looking at all this, I conclude that this was more schedule and opponent based than anything else. Allen and the offense was a work in progress and got better as the season wore on. We just happened to have an early stretch of home games on our schedule as Allen and the offense were still working out major kinks. This isn't even factoring in that early Patriots game where Allen mightily struggled. He performed better against them (on the road) late in the season because he had more experience, had faced them once already, and the Patriots defense had been marginally figured out by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwistofFate Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said: Then what factors on the list would you put above it? Clearly you think there are many. Then why was he pretty consistently accurate on the road? His completion percentage on the road vs at home is strikingly better. Types of defenses hes played. The personnel of those defenses. The game plans to beat certain coverages. Some defenses are capable of maning up and bringing blitzes all day... Patriots, Ravens, Bengals, Steelers...etc, others not so much. Allen struggles consistently against that type of defensive game plan because he needs to make tight accurate throws vs throwing into a zone between coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Livinginthepast Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 11 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: was always as the road Wildcard Had they beaten the Ravens the story changes. One busted play cost the Bills the game. Win that game and play the starters week 17 so much would be different. (or not lost to the Eagles or the Pats**** first game and the dirty hit to Josh) Unfortunately being the 5th seed .... It's not that easy. The first link is current, the latter two are outdated edits in red. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/wild-card-teams-havent-reached-super-bowl-since-2013-heres-how-they-have-fared-since-playoff-expansion/ Wild-card teams haven't reached Super Bowl since 2013; here's how they have fared since playoff expansion Teams that have earned a first-round bye have represented the AFC and the NFC in the Super Bowl in each of the past six years, with no wild-card team going to the Super Bowl since the 2012 Baltimore Ravens (they defeated San Francisco in Super Bowl XLVII). Baltimore's Super Bowl win ended a streak of three consecutive Super Bowl winners to come out of the wild-card round -- the 2010 Green Bay Packers were a No. 6 seed and the 2011 New York Giants were a fourth seed (and a 9-win team) when they won the Super Bowl. Wild-card teams making the Super Bowl were commonplace between 2003 and 2012, as eight wild-card teams were able to reach the championship round, out of 20 participants, with six winning it all. Being the No. 5 seed is the hardest path toward Super Bowl glory as the only No. 5 seed to make the Super Bowl was the 2007 Giants A history of NFL wild card teams to make it to Super Bowls ... Since the wild card format began in 1970, (50 years ago) there have been 11 wild card teams to make it to the Super Bowl. 7 of those 11 have won the Super Bowl. 1992 Bills (11-5) On the way to appearing in their third straight Super Bowl, the Bills finished second in the AFC East behind the Dolphins, so they were the fourth seed and hosted the Oilers in the wild card game in an absolute classic. The Bills were down 35-3 to the Oilers when backup quarterback Frank Reich orchestrated an incredible comeback and the Bills won in overtime. They made it to the Super Bowl but were blown out by the Cowboys. Wild card round: vs. Oilers - Won 41-38 (OT) Divisional round: at Steelers - Won 24-3 AFC Championship: at Dolphins - Won 29-10 Super Bowl XXVII: vs. Cowboys - Lost 52-17 https://www.profootballhof.com/news/history-of-the-wild-card/ 1975 Dallas Cowboys (10-4-0, 2nd Place, NFC Eastern Division) Divisional Playoff – at Minnesota Vikings – (W) – 17-14 NFC Championship – at Los Angeles Rams – (W) – 37-7 Super Bowl X – vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – (L) – 21-17 1980 Oakland Raiders ( 11-5-0, 2nd Place, AFC Western Division) Wild Card Playoff – vs. Houston Oilers – (W) – 27-7 Divisional Playoff – at Cleveland Browns – (W) – 14-12 AFC Championship – at San Diego Chargers – (W) – 34-27 Super Bowl XV – vs. Philadelphia Eagles – (W) – 27-10 1985 New England Patriots (11-5-0, 3rd Place, AFC Eastern Division) Wild Card Playoff – at New York Jets – (W) – 26-14 Divisional Playoff – at Los Angeles Raiders – (W) – 27-20 AFC Championship – at Miami Dolphins – (W) – 31-14 Super Bowl XX – vs. Chicago Bears – (L) – 46-10 1992 Buffalo Bills (11-5-0, 2nd Place, AFC Eastern Division) Wild Card Playoff – vs. Houston Oilers – (W) – 41-38 (OT) Divisional Playoff – at Pittsburgh Steelers – (W) – 24-3 AFC Championship – at Miami Dolphins – (W) – 29-10 Super Bowl XXVII – vs. Dallas Cowboys – (L) – 52-17 1997 Denver Broncos (12-4-0, 2nd Place, AFC Western Division) Wild Card Playoff – vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – (W) – 42-17 Divisional Playoff – at Kansas City Chiefs – (W) – 14-10 AFC Championship – at Pittsburgh Steelers – (W) – 24-21 Super Bowl XXXII – vs. Green Bay Packers – (W) – 31-24 1999 Tennessee Titans (13-3-0, 2nd Place, AFC Central Division) ***** Wild Card Playoff – vs. Buffalo Bills – (W) – 22-16 Divisional Playoff – at Indianapolis Colts – (W) – 19-16 AFC Championship – at Jacksonville Jaguars – (W) – 33-14 Super Bowl XXXIV – vs. St. Louis Rams – (L) – 23-16 2000 Baltimore Ravens (12-4-0, 2nd Place, AFC Central Division) Wild Card Playoff – vs. Denver Broncos – (W) – 21-3 Divisional Playoff – at Tennessee Titans – (W) – 24-10 AFC Championship – at Oakland Raiders – (W) – 16-3 Super Bowl XXXV – vs. New York Giants – (W) – 34-7 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5-0, 2nd Place, AFC North Division) Wild Card Playoff – at Cincinnati Bengals – (W) 31-17 Divisional Playoff – at Indianapolis Colts – (W) 21-18 AFC Championship – at Denver Broncos – (W) 34-17 Super Bowl XL – vs. Seattle Seahawks – (W) 21-10 2007 New York Giants (10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC East Division) Wild Card Playoff – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – (W) 24-14 Divisional Playoff – at Dallas Cowboys – (W) 21-17 NFC Championship – at Green Bay Packers – (W) 23-20 (OT) Super Bowl XLII – vs. New England Patriots – (W) 17-142010 Green Bay Packers (10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC North Division) Wild Card Playoff – at Philadelphia Eagles – (W) 21-16 Divisional Playoff – at Atlanta Falcons – (W) 48-21 NFC Championship – at Chicago Bears – (W) 21-14 Super Bowl XLV – vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – (W) 31-25 2013 Baltimore Ravens Edited 2012 to 2013 for the Year not the season. The Raiders in 1980 was a team that got on a roll and peaked at the perfect time. They truly were a team of destiny. I often look at the 2000 Ravens in the same way. But the Ravens had one of the best, most clutch defenses ever and the overachieving Trent Dilfer at QB (the ultimate game manager). The perfect scenario is for the Bills to catch fire and be underestimated by their competition and then become giant killers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 20 hours ago, White Linen said: Our head coach's conservative offensive mindset and Daboll's inept play calling are the biggest reason to be concerned about our offense. They've clipped his natural instincts wings. He's even running strange and falling awkwardly when getting tackled. Then when they need him to step up and use his instincts he consistently has delivered. Yes, he misses some throws, they all do, not just young QB's. A young QB is going to miss seeing the open guy at times. Your fear should be with our head coach wanting the time of possession to be with our defense. That's a problem. The "play fearless" comment was a hoax. Let them play fearless in Houston like they did in Dallas....Two domed stadiums.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blank Stare Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 (edited) Others have mentioned it in this thread, and I’ve spoke of it in other threads, but to me the biggest issue has been weather. Wind in particular. Yes, it’s Buffalo and outdoors, so weather will be a consideration later in most seasons. However, I recall having to deal with really high winds most of the home games this year. Even games in the months where wind isn’t typically a concern. Just think it was a quirky factor impacting the home slate this year. Edited January 4, 2020 by TheProcess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy KGB Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 18 hours ago, TwistofFate said: Whatever his issues are they need to be corrected by next season. If he's looking the same way this time next year, its pretty safe to say he's not our guy He is our guy. Nothing is going to change that next year Go root for Mahomes or Wilson it will be easier for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 It was practically a stone cold lock from training camp that the Bills were at best playing on the road this weekend they earned this game today and hopefully put up a good battle, nice to have this happening after 20 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 (edited) 7 hours ago, row_33 said: It was practically a stone cold lock from training camp that the Bills were at best playing on the road this weekend they earned this game today and hopefully put up a good battle, nice to have this happening after 20 years I don't want a "good battle", I want a WIN. I have been a Buffalo fan since 1996 and have witnessed 4 "good battles" in the playoffs. Time for a WIN! Edited January 4, 2020 by reddogblitz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts