Buffalo Sabres and NHL: 2019/20: Sabres season officially over. Draft lottery June 26th

[stony]

46 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I understand your well reasoned position. However, I'm with @BillsFan4 on this deal. If Cirelli can be a top three center for the loaded Lightning he would be a solid #2 center with us with the potential to be better in the near future. 

It would be an amazing deal for the Sabres.  TB's beat writer for The Athletic said the Lightning would never do it, so I'm not too keen on the deal happening.  

[JohnC]

27 minutes ago, stony said:

It would be an amazing deal for the Sabres.  TB's beat writer for The Athletic said the Lightning would never do it, so I'm not too keen on the deal happening.  

I agree with your post. The deal wouldn't happen because the Lightning think so much of their young player. If he is good now how good do you think he will be in another year or so? While Cirelli is an untouchable for Tampa, a Cup contending team, Risto, who plays for a lower tiered team, is being shopped.   

[stony]

6 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I agree with your post. The deal wouldn't happen because the Lightning think so much of their young player. If he is good now how good do you think he will be in another year or so? While Cirelli is an untouchable for Tampa, a Cup contending team, Risto, who plays for a lower tiered team, is being shopped.   

Always tough to project a young player's future production when going from a protected situation to something like the Sabres.  I'd argue his production would still go up.  He'd see tougher minutes (but more minutes), but would presumably supplement any dropoff in 5 v 5 scoring by some PP time.   I love a young kid with all 5 v 5 production.

[JohnC]

Since we have come to a consensus that Cirelli won't be traded (LOL) let's go to another trade option. For the astute talent scouts on this site would a straight up Nugent-Hopkins trade for Risto be a fair deal? A change of scenery could be invigorating for the both of them who are getting tired of their current situations.  

 

https://www.nhl.com/player/ryan-nugent-hopkins-8476454

[4merper4mer]

Based on the opinions here Risto's trade value seems to be somewhere in between Gretzky and Andrew Peters.

[BillsFan4]

Cirelli was very good last season. The biggest thing for me is the sample size. 1 year obviously isn’t much to go off of. He’s not a proven veteran player. And you worry how he’d do with an expanded role. But I don’t really see any red flags. It’d not like he was being sheltered in Tampa. 

 

all of his advanced stats were great even though he was used primarily as their shutdown center with 60% d zone starts against the other team’s top lines. His CF% should have taken a big hit (especially being a rookie) but he was a positive corsi player at 53.7% (which is very good). 

 

 

His takeaway way to giveaway ratio was insane at 46-15. A +31 differential! 

 

 

With Cirelli on the ice, the Lightning registered an expected goals for of 47.9 and an expected goals against of 36.2, a +11.7 differential. 

 

 

All the stats say that he made his teammates better and show that he was a good transition player that could be counted on not to make mistakes in the d zone (and exiting). Pretty much every advanced analytic says that the lightning were a better team with Cirelli on the ice, and the eye test matches up IMO. 

 

There are risks with any trade, but Cirelli seems like a pretty safe bet to me. 

 

Here is a good article outlining Cirelli’s impact last season. It also shows how high Tampa fans and media members are on him (not that it really matters)  -  

 

https://www.rawcharge.com/2019/5/9/18538017/2018-2019-tampa-bay-lightning-player-grades-anthony-cirelli-another-midround-gem

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BillsFan4]

 

 

The contract will slide (for up to 2 years) if he doesn’t play 10 NHL games.  

So the count starts on his 3 year ELC in the 3rd season or whenever he plays more than 9 NHL games in a season. 

 

Id be surprised if he plays more than 9 NHL games this year, especially with the thumb injury. 

[BillsFan4]

 

Finally got the chance to sit down and read this whole article last night, and wow! 

Excellent shift by shift breakdown. It’s amazing how well this kid was playing to start his NHL career. This has me even more excited about the trade! Articles like this are why I subscribe to the Athletic. (Btw, I have a link for 40% off 1yr, if anyone wants it). 

 

Quote

Less than 10 minutes earlier, Jokiharju proved that point. Or maybe he proved that he, too, is something special. With 2:53 left in overtime, Tarasenko corralled a stretch pass at the blue line and started to bull his way toward the net as he’s done countless times in his career. Only this time, a 19-year-old kid was in his way. Jokiharju cut off the rush at the top of the left circle and forced Tarasenko to go to his left, toward the slot. Then he swept his stick from left to right, briefly knocking the puck off Tarasenko’s stick. Tarasenko recovered, but Jokiharju never relented. With Jonathan Toews joining the play, Tarasenko was forced to drop the puck to Vince Dunn, who promptly turned it over, leading directly to Toews’ breakaway and game-winning goal, his third of the game.

 

Quote

Sixth shift, 10:34 of the first period

Jokiharju didn’t see much special-teams time, just catching the tail end of a power play, but he was used heavily during three 4-on-4 stints. In the clip below, watch him keep returning to the front of the net — something the Blackhawks repeatedly failed to do last season. He starts by disrupting Jaden Schwartz and making him backtrack, then returns to the net — challenging the play without losing his positioning. After an aborted rush (he quickly regained his spot after the Blues held the zone), he gets aggressive and trails Brandon Saad in search of a rebound or a drop pass. Aggressive, but not reckless.

 

 

 

It looks like we may have a good one! 

 

He looks to bring a skill set that the Sabres don’t have enough of on defense. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edit - there are supposed to be video clips in those quotes. It showed the videos in my post before I posted it, and it shows the videos right now while I am editing this post. But I am not seeing them otherwise. Not sure how to fix it. Was really hoping to be able to share the 2 video clips above. 

Edited July 16, 2019 by BillsFan4

[BillsFan4]

 

[plenzmd1]

old filter  app all viral now...what you will look like in 60 years  .this is pretty funny

 

https://twitter.com/ScottyMCSS/status/1151230593562226694a 

 

a little NSFW, so will leave as a link

 

 

[JohnC]

12 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

old filter  app all viral now...what you will look like in 60 years  .this is pretty funny

 

https://twitter.com/ScottyMCSS/status/1151230593562226694a 

 

a little NSFW, so will leave as a link

 

 

Please calm down. Don't start to freak out before the season has started. I see an impacting Risto  and/or McCabe deal being made before the season starts. The GM is smart enough to understand that the owners are getting itchy for results. Trust me, I won't lead you astray. 

[plenzmd1]

Just now, JohnC said:

Please calm down. Don't start to freak out before the season has started. I see an impacting Risto  and/or McCabe deal being made before the season starts. The GM is smart enough to understand that the owners are getting itchy for results. Trust me, I won't lead you astray. 

You told me last January the Sabres would be fighting for a playoff spot till the bitter end, would pass the Canadians for sure by end of season, the GM had assembled a good young roster, you loved the ROR trade and the coach was not going anywhere....and you want me to trust you now?

[JohnC]

Just now, plenzmd1 said:

You told me last January the Sabres would be fighting for a playoff spot till the bitter end, would pass the Canadians for sure by end of season, the GM had assembled a good young roster, you loved the ROR trade and the coach was not going anywhere....and you want me to trust you now?

I am flexible. The situation is fluid. 

 

Let's get the record straight on the ROR deal. From all the information that came out before and soon after it was made clear that he had to be moved. I had no problem with that sentiment, as did you. The GM got what he could. It turned out to be paltry. As I have stated the problem with the deal, especially as time passed, is not that he was dealt but that it was made in desperation which put the GM in a weak position. Compare that to how the Risto situation is being handled? There is no rush, and if a good deal can't be made now it won't be made until a later time. 

 

The ROR trade calculations can't completely be made as of right now. Maybe Tage turns out to be a good second or third line goal scorer? Maybe the lower first round draft pick turns out to be a good defensemen? The GM has made the point (maybe a rationalization) that the Skinner deal would not have been made for cap reasons if ROR wasn't dealt? What is stark obvious is that in the short run the ROR deal was an unmitigated disaster. 

 

Again, don't be so excitable and trust the process. Whether you want to acknowledge it or not this train is moving in the right direction. It may not be fast enough for you. In that case I say: Tough! There is no other way.  

[The Jokeman]

On 7/14/2019 at 7:19 PM, Alaska Darin said:

I understand what you're saying, I just don't agree with it.  There are less than 10 RHD in the NHL that score like Risto and he does it on a one line team.  Cirelli (at this moment) isn't a special player, so Tampa would need to supplement the trade with something enticing to make it happen.  It wouldn't have to be their best prospect but rather someone like a Tage Thompson. 

 

The additional first is because they're in our division.  Sorry, I'm not playing against Risto that many times every season and not getting a premium back for him.  I'd rather keep him.

 

I'm also not touching Tyler Johnson.  That's too much money and too many years left for a small dude that's already 29.  I do love his game, however.

If you look at the way his contract is built he's not making $5 million per season.  https://www.capfriendly.com/players/tyler-johnson

He's getting 5.5 this year, 3.75 next year, 5.5, 3.75 and 4.75. Not bad money for a second line guy at all if ask me and not an albatross especially with an expansion draft coming in a few years. Cirelli is good and has the dreaded potential which isn't what we need, we need proven guys now that can contribute and to me Johnson be ideal or getting someone like Connor or Zucker and move Reinhart to 2C. 

[plenzmd1]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

I am flexible. The situation is fluid. 

 

Let's get the record straight on the ROR deal. From all the information that came out before and soon after it was made clear that he had to be moved. I had no problem with that sentiment, as did you. The GM got what he could. It turned out to be paltry. As I have stated the problem with the deal, especially as time passed, is not that he was dealt but that it was made in desperation which put the GM in a weak position. Compare that to how the Risto situation is being handled? There is no rush, and if a good deal can't be made now it won't be made until a later time. 

 

The ROR trade calculations can't completely be made as of right now. Maybe Tage turns out to be a good second or third line goal scorer? Maybe the lower first round draft pick turns out to be a good defensemen? The GM has made the point (maybe a rationalization) that the Skinner deal would not have been made for cap reasons if ROR wasn't dealt? What is stark obvious is that in the short run the ROR deal was an unmitigated disaster. 

 

Again, don't be so excitable and trust the process. Whether you want to acknowledge it or not this train is moving in the right direction. It may not be fast enough for you. In that case I say: Tough! There is no other way.  

i have never backed away from my take when the deal happened for ROR i was fine with it, still am. He wasn't a fit here, had to go. Happens in sports. I don't view as an unmitigated disaster.

 

That being said, you said trust me, I am  a wise and sage hockey prognosticator. I say if the GM   listened to you on hockey takes, no need to deliberately tank, would just happen naturally?. As mentioned, you  LOVED what JBotts was doing in January, you liked the roster, you liked the coach, and you thought they had a team that could compete for the last playoff spot...and for sure pass Montreal. And again, this was in late January, not November.

 

At end of season your takes were roster put out there was awful,  that was on JBotts, no way could they compete for a playoff spot with that roster, and yea, maybe the coach sucked as well. And we wont bring up where they ended and where Montreal ended. 

 

(just bustin, but Hot Takes Exposed is a great twitter account too)

 

OTOH, after two nights of the NHL season last year, on this here very board I said Montreal is going to be good and i love the way they play, they will finish ahead of the Sabres, and Housley needed to be fired....hockey genuis I am!!!!!! That was after each played 1 game?

 

BTW, I never bought in this roster was last place roster, just as the year before i didn't ....i don't know squat about Freddy coming in, but he just has gots to be better than what we have had last two years

[JohnC]

11 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

i have never backed away from my take when the deal happened for ROR i was fine with it, still am. He wasn't a fit here, had to go. Happens in sports. I don't view as an unmitigated disaster.

 

That being said, you said trust me, I am  a wise and sage hockey prognosticator. I say if the GM   listened to you on hockey takes, no need to deliberately tank, would just happen naturally?. As mentioned, you  LOVED what JBotts was doing in January, you liked the roster, you liked the coach, and you thought they had a team that could compete for the last playoff spot...and for sure pass Montreal. And again, this was in late January, not November.

 

At end of season your takes were roster put out there was awful,  that was on JBotts, no way could they compete for a playoff spot with that roster, and yea, maybe the coach sucked as well. And we wont bring up where they ended and where Montreal ended. 

 

(just bustin, but Hot Takes Exposed is a great twitter account too)

 

OTOH, after two nights of the NHL season last year, on this here very board I said Montreal is going to be good and i love the way they play, they will finish ahead of the Sabres, and Housley needed to be fired....hockey genuis I am!!!!!! That was after each played 1 game?

 

BTW, I never bought in this roster was last place roster, just as the year before i didn't ....i don't know squat about Freddy coming in, but he just has gots to be better than what we have had last two years

I'm sticking with Botts. What this organization doesn't need is another starting over. Whether you want to admit to it or not this was a rebuilding job. It takes time. Housley didn't work out. He was fired. But what I will say to you is what I have said all along much to your dismay: The issue that kept this team mired in the muck of mediocrity was an inadequate level of talent. Why am I less despairing than you? Because steadily talent is being added and the younger player are getting better. There is no other way. 

Edited July 17, 2019 by JohnC
editing

[plenzmd1]

5 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I'm sticking with Botts. What this organization is another starting over. Whether you want to admit to it or not this was a rebuilding job. It takes time. Housley didn't work out. He was fired. But what I will say to you is what I have said all along much to your dismay: The issue that kept this team mired in the muck of mediocrity was an inadequate level of talent. Why am I less despairing than you? Because steadily talent is being added and the younger player are getting better. There is no other way. 

i must stink at this cause you miss my point. I think the roster last year was adequate, and should have competed for a playoff spot. as I do this year...and was held back by an inept coach who lost his players and the room and a GM who was scared to fire his first hire...he will learn from that and not wait so long when is so obvious next time. 

 

I have never flipped on that position..unlike someone i know!!!

Edited July 17, 2019 by plenzmd1

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

i must stink at this cause you miss my point. I think the roster last year was adequate, and should have competed for a playoff spot. as I do this year...and was held back by an inept coach who lost his players and the room and a GM who was scared to fire his first hire...he will learn from that and not wait so long when is so obvious next time. 

 

I have never flipped on that position..unlike someone i know!!!

We fundamentally disagree about the level of talent on last year's roster and where we were in the rebuilding process. The roster that was assembled last year was not good enough to seriously compete for a playoff spot. That's my opinion. This year's roster will be better but I'm not sure that it is a playoff caliber team. We don't need to again go around in circles for another year. The angry mob is tired of the never ending duels.  

[JohnC]

The attached WGR link is a 11 minute segment with Jeff Hamilton from The Winnipeg Free Press. The discussion is about a trade for Risto and what might come back. 

 

https://wgr550.radio.com/media/audio-channel/07-17-jeff-hamilton-winnipeg-free-press-howard-and-jeremy

[plenzmd1]

18 minutes ago, JohnC said:

We fundamentally disagree about the level of talent on last year's roster and where we were in the rebuilding process. The roster that was assembled last year was not good enough to seriously compete for a playoff spot. That's my opinion. This year's roster will be better but I'm not sure that it is a playoff caliber team. We don't need to again go around in circles for another year. The angry mob is tired of the never ending duels.  

but you did in January!!!

Edited July 17, 2019 by plenzmd1

[JohnC]

37 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

but you did in January!!!

You are too freaking rigid! Stop being such an inflexible ogre. I'm much more flexible and open-minded to the changing of circumstances. I pride myself on being able to make adjustments on the fly. Even pilots who rely on the auto-pilot have to sometimes take control when the conditions warrant it. There is nothing worse than dealing with an ideologue. 

[Cripple Creek]

7 hours ago, JohnC said:

You are too freaking rigid! Stop being such an inflexible ogre. I'm much more flexible and open-minded to the changing of circumstances. I pride myself on being able to make adjustments on the fly. Even pilots who rely on the auto-pilot have to sometimes take control when the conditions warrant it. There is nothing worse than dealing with an ideologue. 

So, don't believe anything you say because tomorrow you'll change your tune?

[BillsFan4]

8 hours ago, JohnC said:

The attached WGR link is a 11 minute segment with Jeff Hamilton from The Winnipeg Free Press. The discussion is about a trade for Risto and what might come back. 

 

https://wgr550.radio.com/media/audio-channel/07-17-jeff-hamilton-winnipeg-free-press-howard-and-jeremy

I could definitely get on board with an Ehlers trade. Even though we have a bunch of LWers he’d definitely be our 2nd best one and a guy that fits long term. 

 

I hated this part, though -

 

Quote

"Jack Roslovic is a guy who has seen some time on the first power play unit, he has been up in the top-six for chunks of the season, but he has predominantly been in a bottom-six role and a guy who's kind of waiting to come into his own," Hamilton said. "He's certainly not the only piece in that conversation. I would add in another guy like Mathieu Perreault. He's a guy that isn't coming off his best season, but the numbers guys love him, he can add stability to the second power play unit... He's certainly a solid bottom-six forward."

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/are-sabres-and-jets-match-ristolainen-trade

 

Ive heard this trade suggested s few times now and it’s definitely not a trade I’d make.

 

Perreault adds no (long term) value for me. He’ll be 32 this season, has never once broken 20g in his career or scored more than 45p and makes over $4M a year for the next 2 years. He’s basically a cap dump.

 

Roslovic is nowhere near enough value coming back. He has been a disappointment so far. As of now he’s a bottom 6 guy. That may be all he ever is. He has a chance to become a top 6 player but I sure wouldn’t bet on it by trading Risto with Roslovic as the main piece coming back. 

 

I dont really want any winnipeg trade with a Roslovic in it. He adds just enough value to downgrade whatever other asset was included in the trade. As I’ve said before, I’d rather just trade Risto in a 1 for 1 hockey trade. Or if not I want a top tier prospect. A trade including Roslovic would almost surely be more of a quantity deal - something like Roslovic + pick + player to even out the cap hits. The last thing I want in any Risto trade is quantity. 

[JohnC]

9 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

I could definitely get on board with an Ehlers trade. Even though we have a bunch of LWers he’d definitely be our 2nd best one and a guy that fits long term. 

 

I hated this part, though -

 

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/are-sabres-and-jets-match-ristolainen-trade

 

Ive heard this trade suggested s few times now and it’s definitely not a trade I’d make.

 

Perreault adds no (long term) value for me. He’ll be 32 this season, has never once broken 20g in his career or scored more than 45p and makes over $4M a year for the next 2 years. He’s basically a cap dump.

 

Roslovic is nowhere near enough value coming back. He has been a disappointment so far. As of now he’s a bottom 6 guy. That may be all he ever is. He has a chance to become a top 6 player but I sure wouldn’t bet on it by trading Risto with Roslovic as the main piece coming back. 

 

I dont really want any winnipeg trade with a Roslovic in it. He adds just enough value to downgrade whatever other asset was included in the trade. As I’ve said before, I’d rather just trade Risto in a 1 for 1 hockey trade. Or if not I want a top tier prospect. A trade including Roslovic would almost surely be more of a quantity deal - something like Roslovic + pick + player to even out the cap hits. The last thing I want in any Risto trade is quantity. 

Every thing you said makes sense. One of takeaways from this interview is that a Risto deal may not be a one for one deal, although I would prefer it to be. What's obvious is that deals go beyond talent exchanges. What is also linked to these deals is the exchanging of contracts. Very often that's the basis for the trade an that's what makes a lot of deals complicated. Winnipeg is in a much more cap stressed situation than the Sabres. So for them sending out an onerous contract is important to them. If you look at our two recent acquisitions in Miller and Johansson for the teams letting them go it was more about the contracts than a talent exchange. 

[BillsFan4]

3 hours ago, JohnC said:

Every thing you said makes sense. One of takeaways from this interview is that a Risto deal may not be a one for one deal, although I would prefer it to be. What's obvious is that deals go beyond talent exchanges. What is also linked to these deals is the exchanging of contracts. Very often that's the basis for the trade an that's what makes a lot of deals complicated. Winnipeg is in a much more cap stressed situation than the Sabres. So for them sending out an onerous contract is important to them. If you look at our two recent acquisitions in Miller and Johansson for the teams letting them go it was more about the contracts than a talent exchange. 

I’m ok with taking back money and I realize that it will likely be required in almost any Risto trade. I just want a more useful player than Perrault. Or, if we are taking a “cap dump” type of player in return to make the cap work I want a much better main piece than Roslovic. I just hated both pieces included in that hypothetical trade is all. 

 

Like Ehlers, he makes $6M for the next 6 years. I’m fine taking that salary back! lol

 

 

If Winnipeg wanted to send up Perrault in a Ristolainen trade, IMO that would take a big sweetener because it would take away value from whatever else was included in the trade. 

 

Look at what it’d cost to dump cap this offseason. Toronto gave up a 1st to dump Marleau and he only had 1 year left on his deal and was still a very useful player, just slightly overpaid. Nashville had to basically give away P.K. Subban (a Norris trophy finalist just 2 seasons ago) to clear his cap hit to be able to sign Duchene. 

 

Perrault is like an Okposo level player. It should cost big to dump a player like that. 

 

If winnipeg needs to send salary back, then send a more useful player our way.

 

The Sabres aren’t exactly swimming in cap space right now, themselves. We barely have enough to get our RFA’s signed.

I’m fine with the trade being cap neutral for both teams, but I don’t want to trade a player like Ristolainen, who is totally worth the cap space he takes up, for someone who is going to be a big waste of cap space. We already have way too many of those contracts (according to a recent analysis of every NHL team’s contracts, we have the most dead weight contracts in the NHL) . I’m done taking other teams garbage unless it’s definitely worth our while. 

 

 

 

Plus, Perrault is yet another left winger, which is about our least needed position. 

 

 

(as you can probably tell, I hate the idea of this proposed trade. ?) 

[BillsFan4]

@JohnC here is the article I mentioned -

 

https://theathletic.com/1078201/2019/07/17/by-the-numbers-grading-every-teams-contract-efficiency/

‘By the numbers: Grading every team’s contract efficiency’

 

 

Quote

Last week we went over the league’s best and worst contracts, ordered by how much surplus value the deal provides as well as the likelihood the player will be able to provide positive value. That was just a teaser. Today, we rank (almost) every contract on every team in the league based on the same methodology in an attempt to figure out which teams are the most efficient with the money they spend.

 

Teams will be graded empirically based on the surplus value they bring in per player contract (all dead money counts as one) as well as the average probability those deals will provide positive value. Both are based on a player’s age-adjusted projected win output according to GSVA and the uncertainty in that projection for future seasons, along with the cost of a win on the open market. How much each team spends to obtain those wins will also be graded.

 

What’s being assessed is the future value of the remainder of each contract, meaning what a player has already done holds no merit here. Future value means age is crucial in terms of grading each contract, with players peaking between the ages of 22-26 and declining afterward.

 

 

Heres the section on the Sabres. There’s also a graph but I don’t think I’m adding it properly because it’s showing up as a link. (edit, fixed it)

 

Quote

https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2019/07/15232231/Screen-Shot-2019-07-15-at-11.18.13-PM.png

Quote

The Sabres rank 30th in positive value probability, but 22nd in surplus value and 21st in cost per win. The reason for that is due to the flexibility of the team’s cap sheet in relation to which players are signed long term and which aren’t. Jack Eichel and Colin Miller bring the team the most surplus value while Jeff Skinner is signed for close to market value. Those players greatly reduce the price of a win every year they’re on the books and offset the guys that drive it up, most of whom are only on one-year pacts. Aside from bad deals for Kyle Okposo and Rasmus Ristolainen, the future cap sheet looks pretty clean.

 

The immediate present isn’t great though. The list goes on for the Sabres that are getting more than their worth, but they won’t be here for long. Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, Jimmy Vesey, Vladimir Sobotka, Zach Bogosian and Marco Scandella are all replaceable talents and likely gone after next season. That they’re only here for a year though is what drives the certainty that they won’t be worth their contracts way up though. Combined, they’ll be worth minus-2.1 wins next season, but somehow cost the team $18.1 million. That’s rough.

The Sabres have eight players with a positive value probability lower than 20 percent, the most in the league. The Sabres also rank dead last with only 24 percent of their contracts being above average value. One day things will be good in Buffalo, but that time isn’t now. The team just doesn’t have the right pieces surrounding its talented young core.

 

It’s amazing the amount of work that went into this article. I don’t agree with everything his model spits out, but I appreciate the time and effort put into the analysis. 

Edited July 18, 2019 by BillsFan4

[JohnC]

37 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

@JohnC here is the article I mentioned -

 

https://theathletic.com/1078201/2019/07/17/by-the-numbers-grading-every-teams-contract-efficiency/

‘By the numbers: Grading every team’s contract efficiency’

 

 

 

 

Heres the section on the Sabres. There’s also a graph but I don’t think I’m adding it properly because it’s showing up as a link. (edit, fixed it)

 

 

It’s amazing the amount of work that went into this article. I don’t agree with everything his model spits out, but I appreciate the time and effort put into the analysis. 

 

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

 

 

41 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

@JohnC here is the article I mentioned -

 

https://theathletic.com/1078201/2019/07/17/by-the-numbers-grading-every-teams-contract-efficiency/

‘By the numbers: Grading every team’s contract efficiency’

 

 

 

 

Heres the section on the Sabres. There’s also a graph but I don’t think I’m adding it properly because it’s showing up as a link. (edit, fixed it)

 

 

It’s amazing the amount of work that went into this article. I don’t agree with everything his model spits out, but I appreciate the time and effort put into the analysis. 

There was a quote in the article that stuck out for me: "The team just doesn't have the right pieces surrounding its talented core." That's why a Risto and/or McCabe deal is so critical. There is still plenty of time to work out a deal or deals before the season or even during the season to reshuffle some of the pieces. If a good deal for Risto can't be consummated then the GM should just keep him and go on from there. There are a number of critical needs. In my view assembling a credible second line is the biggest priority. If a second line center can't be attained then the next possible route is to secure a good winger and put Mitts (who still has a way to go) in a better position to succeed. 

[plenzmd1]

48 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

@JohnC here is the article I mentioned -

 

https://theathletic.com/1078201/2019/07/17/by-the-numbers-grading-every-teams-contract-efficiency/

‘By the numbers: Grading every team’s contract efficiency’

 

 

 

 

Heres the section on the Sabres. There’s also a graph but I don’t think I’m adding it properly because it’s showing up as a link. (edit, fixed it)

 

 

It’s amazing the amount of work that went into this article. I don’t agree with everything his model spits out, but I appreciate the time and effort put into the analysis. 

the hockey analytics/twitter guys are unbelievable...for most its just a passion, not a profession..though they hope it to be!

 

This is the section i love..and someone tell me why anyone on this list outside of Vesey is not going to be waived??

 

 Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, Jimmy Vesey, Vladimir Sobotka, Zach Bogosian and Marco Scandella are all replaceable talents and likely gone after next season. That they’re only here for a year though is what drives the certainty that they won’t be worth their contracts way up though. Combined, they’ll be worth minus-2.1 wins next season,

 

 

[BillsFan4]

59 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

the hockey analytics/twitter guys are unbelievable...for most its just a passion, not a profession..though they hope it to be!

 

This is the section i love..and someone tell me why anyone on this list outside of Vesey is not going to be waived??

 

 Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, Jimmy Vesey, Vladimir Sobotka, Zach Bogosian and Marco Scandella are all replaceable talents and likely gone after next season. That they’re only here for a year though is what drives the certainty that they won’t be worth their contracts way up though. Combined, they’ll be worth minus-2.1 wins next season,

 

 

I actually didn’t fully agree with that section. Bogo, Sobotka, Scandella yes (though I’m hoping for bounce back years for Scandella and Sobotka since it looks like both will be on the roster this year). 

 

But I have no issue with Larsson and girgensons. They were actually good in their roles as shutdown players. They were 4th and 5th in the league in d zone starts iirc and faced some of the toughest QoC of any Sabres forwards. Despite that, both of their defensive zone metrics were very good. They are actually 2 of the best defensive forwards we have on the team. 

 

When they are slotted into a proper role they add value to the team. 

It’s asking them to play roles they’re not meant for where the trouble starts. 

 

At least IMO anyway. 

[plenzmd1]

9 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

I actually didn’t fully agree with that section. Bogo, Sobotka, Scandella yes (though I’m hoping for bounce back years for Scandella and Sobotka since it looks like both will be on the roster this year). 

 

But I have no issue with Larsson and girgensons. They were actually good in their roles as shutdown players. They were 4th and 5th in the league in d zone starts iirc and faced some of the toughest QoC of any Sabres forwards. Despite that, both of their defensive zone metrics were very good. They are actually 2 of the best defensive forwards we have on the team. 

 

When they are slotted into a proper role they add value to the team. 

It’s asking them to play roles they’re not meant for where the trouble starts. 

 

At least IMO anyway. 

I would agree on that for the most part. Ya know, I was very pro tank, and hate to say was  not at all upset when Girgs got hurt that year as i thought between him and the goalies might jeopardize our position, he was playing that well. Be great to look at the advanced numbers from that year and see what they looked like on him...and what has happened since..as you say just way to many DZone starts? What else might be affecting him?.

[JohnC]

22 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

I actually didn’t fully agree with that section. Bogo, Sobotka, Scandella yes (though I’m hoping for bounce back years for Scandella and Sobotka since it looks like both will be on the roster this year). 

 

But I have no issue with Larsson and girgensons. They were actually good in their roles as shutdown players. They were 4th and 5th in the league in d zone starts iirc and faced some of the toughest QoC of any Sabres forwards. Despite that, both of their defensive zone metrics were very good. They are actually 2 of the best defensive forwards we have on the team. 

 

When they are slotted into a proper role they add value to the team. 

It’s asking them to play roles they’re not meant for where the trouble starts. 

 

At least IMO anyway. 

Not that long ago there was a WGR segment on the Instigator Show talking about the Larsson and Girgensons line. Andrew Peters made the point that on a good team where games were meaningful throughout the season and most games were usually close their defensive roles that included the penalty kill would be valued. The assessment of that line is mistakenly devalued because in general the team lacked secondary scoring and thus their performances were associated with that team deficiency. 

 

If a credible second line can be assembled that would not only take some scoring pressure off of the first line but also push back players playing roles above their talent level into more proper lower line roles the Girgs/Larsson line and roles would be more appreciated and respected. 

[shrader]

I think there could be more of a long term potential with Vesey.  I see him as a lesser version of last year's Skinner.  They'll see how things go and then decide whether or not they want to bring him back for more.

[BillsFan4]

18 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

I would agree on that for the most part. Ya know, I was very pro tank, and hate to say was  not at all upset when Girgs got hurt that year as i thought between him and the goalies might jeopardize our position, he was playing that well. Be great to look at the advanced numbers from that year and see what they looked like on him...and what has happened since..as you say just way to many DZone starts? What else might be affecting him?.

 

I was high on Girgs that tank year under Nolan, too. I thought he had a chance to be our next captain, and hoped he’d be that hard working 2 way #2C for the Sabres in the future. 

 

But I think I kind of just got fooled. Someone had to play that #1 C role for the Sabres that year (looking back on the lineup that year is scary! lol https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/BUF/2015.html ). Whoever did was bound to put up some points by default. 

 

I think it helped having Ted Nolan as his coach. They had a prior relationship from their time together with Latvia, so Nolan has confidence in girgensons.

 

Plus, All Nolan really asked for was effort (more effort was also his solution to every problem) and I think that suited Girgensons well. 

 

 

I think the biggest thing with girgensons last year was that he really seemed to finally accept and embrace his role as a shutdown guy. I don’t think girgensons had ever really accepted that he’s more of a defensive guy before that. Same with Larsson to some extent.

 

Larsson had a down year 2 years ago coming off that bad wrist/arm injury, but IMO he’s always been pretty useful when paired with decent line mates. His line with Foligno and Gionta was one of our best lines that year, and he also (surprisingly) did pretty good in 2014 when he was paired with Ennis and Moulson. 

 

I think that we probably need to accept that they are both just good 4th liners who can add value in a defensive role. 

 

 

Both are UFA at years end though and with younger players coming up behind them (like Asplund) it wouldn’t surprise me if this was their last year in Buffalo. 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, shrader said:

I think there could be more of a long term potential with Vesey.  I see him as a lesser version of last year's Skinner.  They'll see how things go and then decide whether or not they want to bring him back for more.

If he can give us more net presence in the offensive zone then his value increases. The only player who consistently stands his ground around the net is Reinhart. And the prolific goal scorer within a few yards of the net is Skinner. Okposa is probably the most physically suited to be around the net. He shies away from that tough territory. That is disappointing. 

[snafu]

2 hours ago, shrader said:

I think there could be more of a long term potential with Vesey.  I see him as a lesser version of last year's Skinner.  They'll see how things go and then decide whether or not they want to bring him back for more.

 

I liked the Vesey move.

I think when this team develops its talent, he could be one of those fourth line guys who can actually finish the chances that his linemates give him. He can kill penalties and contribute on the second PP.  When the move was made, my only reaction was hope that they don't try to jam him into a first or second line role.

 

 

[BillsFan4]

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/blackhawks/ct-blackhawks-alex-nylander-mackenzie-entwistle-20190717-tv54jfi2unhppdlje7ifqdaf7q-story.html?outputType=amp

 

Alex Nylander canceled a vacation to participate in Blackhawks development camp. GM Stan Bowman was impressed.

 

Quote

When Stan Bowman called Alex Nylander to let him know the Hawks had traded for him, the Blackhawks general manager had one request.

 

“It was pretty short notice when I talked to him the day of the trade and said, ‘We’d love to have you in Chicago if you can make it work,’” Bowman said. “I think he did have a vacation planned, but he canceled that to come here, and that shows his desire to acclimate with our group right away.”

 

It’s rare for players with NHL experience to attend development camp. Nylander, who has played in 19 games with the Sabres, attended their development camp in past years but didn’t go to their most recent one last month.

 

After he chose not to attend Buffalo’s development camp just weeks earlier...

even though buffalo also has a brand new coaching staff he should have wanted to make a good impression on. 

 

 

Quote

He’s a big kid, he’s almost 200 pounds,” Bowman said. “So his physical strength is there. Now it’s just trying to put it all together. He’s got a great skill set, he wants to be a player, he wants to learn, and he’s been asking questions out there, talking to the coaches, listening to what they have to say and trying to incorporate it in the drills. I’ve found him to be coachable and I think he’s excited.”

 

We will see how long this new, eager, coachable Alex Nylander lasts. I have a feeling his attitude may not be quite this good if he’s sent down to start the year (though I think bowman gives h8m every chance to stick). 

 

I highly doubt that he just all all the sudden “got it” overnight. I think this is just coming from a boost in motivation that follows many/most trades. 

 

I don’t want it to sound like I am rooting against the kid or anything. I just wish he’d have shown the same effort and willingness to get better here.  

 

Im still glad that botterill cashed in on Nylander though. I think he’s always going to be one of those frustrating players that you know has more to give (kind of like Vanek, though I don’t think Nylander will ever be the goal scorer Vanek was). 

 

I feel similarly about his brother in Toronto. 

Edited July 19, 2019 by BillsFan4

[Dr. Who]

Ahh, personally, I'm sorta feeling the schadenfreude with the kid. I didn't want Emo-boy to hoist the Cup and win the Conn Smythe; don't want Entitled to prosper with the Hawks. He'll probably kill it now . . .

[JohnC]

8 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

I actually didn’t fully agree with that section. Bogo, Sobotka, Scandella yes (though I’m hoping for bounce back years for Scandella and Sobotka since it looks like both will be on the roster this year). 

 

But I have no issue with Larsson and girgensons. They were actually good in their roles as shutdown players. They were 4th and 5th in the league in d zone starts iirc and faced some of the toughest QoC of any Sabres forwards. Despite that, both of their defensive zone metrics were very good. They are actually 2 of the best defensive forwards we have on the team. 

 

When they are slotted into a proper role they add value to the team. 

It’s asking them to play roles they’re not meant for where the trouble starts. 

 

At least IMO anyway. 

I can see Scandella as a third or fourth pairing defenseman. I just don't see where Sobotka fits in. If the Sabres work out a deal to get a second line center then Mitts probably becomes our third center. If Mitts becomes a second line center I still don't see where Sobotka fits in as a third line player. The GM is adverse to buy out players. However, this could be a case where it might come to shipping Sobotka for virtually nothing and paying a portion of his salary just to move him. This seems to be a situation where it is best for the player and the organization to move on from each other. 

[BillsFan4]

12 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I can see Scandella as a third or fourth pairing defenseman. I just don't see where Sobotka fits in. If the Sabres work out a deal to get a second line center then Mitts probably becomes our third center. If Mitts becomes a second line center I still don't see where Sobotka fits in as a third line player. The GM is adverse to buy out players. However, this could be a case where it might come to shipping Sobotka for virtually nothing and paying a portion of his salary just to move him. This seems to be a situation where it is best for the player and the organization to move on from each other. 

Or waiving him and hoping he chooses to return to the KHL again... lol