Rufridr101 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 When the season started the receivers were Benjamin, Kerley. Holmes and zay Jones. 3 of them are not on the team anymore. We lost are 2 best offensive lineman from a year ago and Josh Allen wasn't named the starter until week 2. The kid didn't receive many reps with the 1st team in spring training. Fast forward his receivers became a undrafted rookie Robert foster, another who was claimed off waivers McKenzie, and another guy who missed training camp and been underperforming Zay Jones. Josh Allen had 0 help of a running game, and would cause problems for the best of veteran qbs. I really think it's laughable people don't realize that the bills have struck gold. Maybe it's all the years of losing and past failures of drafting qbs that make people pessimistic. Reminds me of the movie money ball at the end when they watch the video of the big guy who was scared of running to second base and didn't realize he hit it out of the park. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, Dr. Who said: If you give the same benefit of the doubt to the folks who are enthusiastic about Allen as you do to Elite Poster, there really isn't a basis for anyone being upset. A lot of folks feel the need to add the caveat about Allen having to continue to develop just to placate folks who actually seem irritated that others are now really happy Allen is the Buffalo Bills qb. You probably wouldn't have the same level of emotional optimism if many hadn't been persuaded by the massive negative reaction to the fella when he was first drafted that we had made a highly risk choice likely to be a bust. It's as much relief that Allen's floor is evidently not a "bust" as joy that he appears to have a legitimate shot at hitting his ceiling that is motivating the good vibes. I give the same benefit of the doubt to all sides. People want to say bust I will tell them they are being ridiculous. People want to say 2019 MVP I will say the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Who Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 (edited) 6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I give the same benefit of the doubt to all sides. People want to say bust I will tell them they are being ridiculous. People want to say 2019 MVP I will say the same. I think it's reasonable to expect a significant leap forward given an off-season where Allen now has the experience to know specifically what he needs to give a priority to working on in order to elevate his game, first team reps from the start of training camp, and hopefully some really good adds via draft and free agency. Expecting 2019 MVP is clearly excessive and technically I agree with you, but after decades of bad qb play, I am willing to forgive folks being giddy with actual hope. Edited January 4, 2019 by Dr. Who Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I give the same benefit of the doubt to all sides. People want to say bust I will tell them they are being ridiculous. People want to say 2019 MVP I will say the same. So in your mind the two outcomes are equally likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, GunnerBill said: There are plenty saying "I'm now convinced" and "the kid has 'it'..." and such like. Even in this thread. We have had other threads declaring him a 2019 MVP candidate. It is fair to say as promising as he has looked in the 2nd half of the season that we should pump the breaks a tad on that kind of talk. There is a long way still to go. Bit of space between the above and " a 7 time pro bowler, 3x all pro, on his way to the HOF ", not? 15 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: So in your mind the two outcomes are equally likely? I'm not Gunner but I honestly don't know how to put odds on it. I guess if you put me up against a wall, I would say "bust" still more likely than 2019 MVP? Don't shoot me, here's my reasoning....One can be a HOF QB, a very very good QB or even a capable NFL starter and those would all be favorable outcomes for Allen, but fall way short of league MVP. But overall, something like 50% of QB drafted in the high 1st round don't become even capable NFL starters, and while Allen has flashed all the potential in the world, he's still got a ways to go to reach the status of "16 week capable NFL starter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said: Bit of space between the above and " a 7 time pro bowler, 3x all pro, on his way to the HOF ", not? I think there was a bit of exaggeration for effect but the point he was trying to make was readily comprehensible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 (edited) 15 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: So in your mind the two outcomes are equally likely? Yea pretty much. I'd say the chances of him being 2019 MVP are about 5% (pretty high when you consider how many players there are in the NFL). His chances of still eventually busting from this point I'd say are in that 5% range too..... which is a significant reduction from where I'd have put them the day after the draft. So it is good news. The chances of him eventually being an MVP of the league I'd maybe put higher. But I think talk of him being MVP in 2019 is a bit ridiculous - yes. And worse than that it gets away from sensible discussion about what the progression we should want to see from Josh in 2019 is. Edited January 4, 2019 by GunnerBill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 20 minutes ago, Dr. Who said: I think it's reasonable to expect a significant leap forward given an off-season where Allen now has the experience to know specifically what he needs to give a priority to working on in order to elevate his game, first team reps from the start of training camp, and hopefully some really good adds via draft and free agency. Expecting 2019 MVP is clearly excessive and technically I agree with you, but after decades of bad qb play, I am willing to forgive folks being giddy with actual hope. I hear you, my caveat is it seems sometimes the same people who are over-the-top giddy on insufficient evidence, become those who are over-the-top critical when there's a step back or a terrible game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Yea pretty much. I'd say the chances of him being 2019 MVP are about 5% (pretty high when you consider how many players there are in the NFL). His chances of still eventually busting from this point I'd say are in that 5% range too..... which is a significant reduction from where I'd have put them the day after the draft. So it is good news. The chances of him eventually being an MVP of the league I'd maybe put higher. But I think talk of him being MVP in 2019 is a bit ridiculous - yes. And worse than that it gets away from sensible discussion about what the progression we should want to see from Josh in 2019 is. I think that's very optimistic of you. I'd say there's more like a 25% chance that he busts and a 1% chance that he's league MVP. Even a 5,000-yard season won't guarantee an MVP for a guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, thebandit27 said: I think that's very optimistic of you. I'd say there's more like a 25% chance that he busts and a 1% chance that he's league MVP. Even a 5,000-yard season won't guarantee an MVP for a guy. See people - look - Bandit thinks he might bust more than me (which definitely wasn't the case a year ago) can people stop telling me I am too negative now..... I just understood the point Elite Poster was trying to make and I think there was some merit in it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: See people - look - Bandit thinks he might bust more than me (which definitely wasn't the case a year ago) can people stop telling me I am too negative now..... I just understood the point Elite Poster was trying to make and I think there was some merit in it. Haha look you can call me out there too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I hear you, my caveat is it seems sometimes the same people who are over-the-top giddy on insufficient evidence, become those who are over-the-top critical when there's a step back or a terrible game. Yep and I think we are all better keeping a level head and talking sensibly about what constitutes real progress for Josh in 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: See people - look - Bandit thinks he might bust more than me (which definitely wasn't the case a year ago) can people stop telling me I am too negative now..... I just understood the point Elite Poster was trying to make and I think there was some merit in it. I think people get confused easily when evaluating QBs; it's all about the "might" factor. You draft a QB early if you think there's a chance he might become a franchise QB. With Allen, I put his likelihood-to-bust at about 50%, which was 2nd-highest among my 1st round QBs (I had Jackson the highest at ~55% and Mayfield/Rosen the lowest at 25%). I've seen more progression this season than I expected, so I've dropped my bust potential on Allen down to 25%. I'd say it looks like this: QB Draft Day Bust Potential Current Bust Potential Mayfield 25% 20% Rosen 25% 25% Darnold 40% 25% Allen 50% 25% Jackson 55% 40% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyBillsFan Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Dr. Who said: If you give the same benefit of the doubt to the folks who are enthusiastic about Allen as you do to Elite Poster, there really isn't a basis for anyone being upset. A lot of folks feel the need to add the caveat about Allen having to continue to develop just to placate folks who actually seem irritated that others are now really happy Allen is the Buffalo Bills qb. You probably wouldn't have the same level of emotional optimism if many hadn't been persuaded by the massive negative reaction to the fella when he was first drafted that we had made a highly risk choice likely to be a bust. It's as much relief that Allen's floor is evidently not a "bust" as joy that he appears to have a legitimate shot at hitting his ceiling that is motivating the good vibes. I think you're spot on here. For sure a lot of folks are evaluating Allen in response to the over the top negativism that greeted his selection in some quarters. And then when the majority of the "experts" started waving around their impressive charts & calculations claiming that Allen would be a bust it's only natural a lot of us are breathing a sigh of relief that it doesn't look like his floor will be anywhere near a bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Yea pretty much. I'd say the chances of him being 2019 MVP are about 5% (pretty high when you consider how many players there are in the NFL). His chances of still eventually busting from this point I'd say are in that 5% range too..... which is a significant reduction from where I'd have put them the day after the draft. So it is good news. The chances of him eventually being an MVP of the league I'd maybe put higher. But I think talk of him being MVP in 2019 is a bit ridiculous - yes. And worse than that it gets away from sensible discussion about what the progression we should want to see from Josh in 2019 is. Wow, I'm amazed. See here's the thing. A bunch of very good, even great, NFL QB had some questionable play their 1st year. Most of them took a big step forward their 2nd year. And while there are still some very good, even great, NFL QB whose questionable play continued into their 2nd year, the number declines sharply. So you can't really look at a QB's first season (IMO) and say too much about his long-term league outcome. Very very few rookies who play have solid first years. Very very few rookies who bust have first years where they don't show flashes - I mean, if a guy didn't have something under the hood, the chances of him being drafted high in the first are relatively slim. EJ showed flashes, though we like to forget that in hindsight. The second season is far more predictive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stank_Nasty Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Yea pretty much. I'd say the chances of him being 2019 MVP are about 5% (pretty high when you consider how many players there are in the NFL). His chances of still eventually busting from this point I'd say are in that 5% range too..... which is a significant reduction from where I'd have put them the day after the draft. So it is good news. The chances of him eventually being an MVP of the league I'd maybe put higher. But I think talk of him being MVP in 2019 is a bit ridiculous - yes. And worse than that it gets away from sensible discussion about what the progression we should want to see from Josh in 2019 is. If I recall you basically said it all but sealed beane and McDermott getting canned in a year or 2. So i’d day “reduction” may be an understatement. Haha. I may be mistaken. Maybe that wasn’t you. But I’m fairly certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, thebandit27 said: I think people get confused easily when evaluating QBs; it's all about the "might" factor. You draft a QB early if you think there's a chance he might become a franchise QB. With Allen, I put his likelihood-to-bust at about 50%, which was 2nd-highest among my 1st round QBs (I had Jackson the highest at ~55% and Mayfield/Rosen the lowest at 25%). I've seen more progression this season than I expected, so I've dropped my bust potential on Allen down to 25%. I'd say it looks like this: QB Draft Day Bust Potential Current Bust Potential Mayfield 25% 20% Rosen 25% 25% Darnold 40% 25% Allen 50% 25% Jackson 55% 40% Love ya Bandit. I look at this and think about Lake Wobegone, where all the children are above average Historically, it would be very very unlikely that all 5 of those guys become good NFL QB. Two tops, possibly three. I don't think your percentages align with that outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Wow, I'm amazed. See here's the thing. A bunch of very good, even great, NFL QB had some questionable play their 1st year. Most of them took a big step forward their 2nd year. And while there are still some very good, even great, NFL QB whose questionable play continued into their 2nd year, the number declines sharply. So you can't really look at a QB's first season (IMO) and say too much about his long-term league outcome. Very very few rookies who play have solid first years. Very very few rookies who bust have first years where they don't show flashes - I mean, if a guy didn't have something under the hood, the chances of him being drafted high in the first are relatively slim. EJ showed flashes, though we like to forget that in hindsight. The second season is far more predictive. I suppose it depends what we mean by bust. I mean EJ, out of the league inside 5 years. If we mean "fail" to be a franchise Quarterback then obviously the percentage should be higher as you and bandit rightly state. Like, would you call Blake Bortles a bust? He has started 75 career games, 59.3%, 103-75 TD to INT..... if we are calling that bust then yea - it is much higher than 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stank_Nasty Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 .@buffalobills @JoshAllenQB when any fan, analyst, or team analyze this guy please take into consideration the #of drops, the throwaways, and his escapes due to poor pass protection. There is a lot to work with on the positive side. #BaldysBreakdowns Buddy just sent me this tweet so I copied and pasted because I don’t have Twitter. Baldy knows what’s up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Love ya Bandit. I look at this and think about Lake Wobegone, where all the children are above average Historically, it would be very very unlikely that all 5 of those guys become good NFL QB. Two tops, possibly three. I don't think your percentages align with that outcome. Yep, it's far beyond what would be considered normal or reasonable to expect. Then again, I was consistent in saying that I've never liked a QB class anywhere near as much as 2018--I thought (and still think) that all 5 first-rounders have a legitimately good shot to become franchise QBs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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