THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Bills Still Have A Lot to Work On

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Explanation accepted.

 

You said "that play was all on Allen."  Perhaps that is what folks (including myself) are interpreting as putting it all on Allen.

 

 

Thanks. I did say that.  Could have been said better. But I was also completely clear that Clay should have caught it.  

 

I think Clay is unimportant.  

 

You and I agree that Allen should have better, needs to be better on plays like that. 

 

The whole game is on the QB, every game, every day. The QBs know that. It's the job they want.  You can bet that Allen has replayed it 100 times in his head, thinking about what he should have done.  And you can bet he's spending no time thinking about Clay. 

 

Yes, Allen made a play that was good enough to win the game and his tight end didn't. But Allen didn't make play he should have. 

[WideNine]

4 hours ago, Buddo said:

I think you are on to something, with your analysis of why Allen didn't make a better throw to Clay, but I think in context, it's irrelevant.

 

Clay needed to catch the football.

 

There was a play to be made that was going to win the game.

 

It's what guys are paid a lot of money to do on Sundays.

 

Irrespective of who could, couldn't have made the play (pass) in the first place, any other QB would rightly expect his veteran TE, to catch that ball.

 

Situational football. I'm not sure you can expect guys to be perfect on 4th and long, with less than a minute to go in the game, and you need a TD to get ahead in the game.

 

I'll take a 50 yard wounded duck, to a wide open receiver, every day of the week, and twice on Sundays

 

Besides, if Allen had taken the time to set himself, he probably would have drilled it through Clays hands, and knocked his teeth out.

 

I think if Allen had taken the time to set his feet properly then throw, one Miami defender would have speared him in the nuts at the same time another ripped his head off his shoulders for making them all look so silly as he ran circles around them. The refs of course would throw a flag, but our brief hope for justice would be crushed as they call a hold against the Bills' RT 30 yds away from the play.

 

It really isn't too hard to imagine.

[Shaw66]

44 minutes ago, La Jolla said:

 

 

Hapless is honest and straight forward.  What he did was explain to me why everyone was so excited.   And, as usual, he was right.  

Edited December 5, 2018 by Shaw66

[Warcodered]

33 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

I think if Allen had taken the time to set his feet properly then throw, one Miami defender would have speared him in the nuts at the same time another ripped his head off his shoulders for making them all look so silly as he ran circles around them. The refs of course would throw a flag, but our brief hope for justice would be crushed as they call a hold against the Bills' RT 30 yds away from the play.

 

It really isn't too hard to imagine.

I don't know about that but I do think it might of been hard for him to gauge how much time he had with the guy chasing behind him.

[transplantbillsfan]

So is this thread about you finding balance, Shaw?

 

I feel nothing but excitement about Allen right now. And regarding that interception on the pass to KB, well, directly after the game you had McDermott say:

 

and today, KB was cut. I don't think it's hard to read that comment largely as an indictment on KB's route.

 

Same goes for the missed TD to Zay.

 

Damn well wish he hit Foster on that bomb, but needing a 70 yard pass to be consistently on target for any NFL QB in the history of the NFL is unreasonable.

 

Yeah, Allen's pass to Clay coulda been better. It also travelled 50+ yards to a TE giving him absolutely no help running back to him after running around probably for 30+ yards just trying to get the opportunity to throw it.

 

The future is bright.

 

Screw Bledsoe. Barring injury (God please help us!!!), I think we found our 10-15+ year Franchise QB!!!

 

 

[La Jolla]

6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Hapless is honest and straight forward.  What he did was explain to me why everyone was so excited.   And, as usual, he was right.  

Yes.  thanks.  Comment deleted. 

[PUNT750]

I respect you Shaw!  But if you have other things to do and can't watch the game in the moment then probably you shouldn't write a review!  Josh Allen was excellent with the OL around him and Benjamin deserved to be released by the 2 routes he ran short of the 1st down marker.  I don't think Bill B would tolerate that crap.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

So is this thread about you finding balance, Shaw?

 

I feel nothing but excitement about Allen right now. And regarding that interception on the pass to KB, well, directly after the game you had McDermott say:

 

and today, KB was cut. I don't think it's hard to read that comment largely as an indictment on KB's route.

 

Same goes for the missed TD to Zay.

 

Damn well wish he hit Foster on that bomb, but needing a 70 yard pass to be consistently on target for any NFL QB in the history of the NFL is unreasonable.

 

Yeah, Allen's pass to Clay coulda been better. It also travelled 50+ yards to a TE giving him absolutely no help running back to him after running around probably for 30+ yards just trying to get the opportunity to throw it.

 

The future is bright.

 

Screw Bledsoe. Barring injury (God please help us!!!), I think we found our 10-15+ year Franchise QB!!!

 

 

Thanks for the info.  

 

As for your view on Allen, I agree completely.   I'm really excited.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I don't know about that but I do think it might of been hard for him to gauge how much time he had with the guy chasing behind him.

 

Yes.
 

Allen came into the league with no real idea what level of athleticism he'd be facing.  Playing for Wyoming, he didn't face opponents who send a lot of defenders to the pros - no Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, or 'Bama guys.

He was on-pace his first 4 games to be sacked something like 84 times.

 

Most recent 4 games, been sacked no more than twice.  Now part of that is the OL gelling a bit.   Part of it is Allen getting smarter with the ball and figuring out he needs to throw it away.  But part of it is Allen adjusting to the speed of the defenders he's facing.

 

He's shown when he turns on the jets and runs like he means it, he can evade most of them.  Now he needs to get to grips with the time he buys when he opens a gap and whether/when he has time to re-set.

 

[WideNine]

16 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I don't know about that but I do think it might of been hard for him to gauge how much time he had with the guy chasing behind him.

 

Was going for gallows humor a bit, but in all seriousness I was thinking along the same lines you were. With guys bearing down on you with a vengeance, and you are on the move to your left, and you buy just enough time to get a pass off, I have to think that better mechanics are a luxury. The fact that Josh felt he could have gotten more on that throw if it hadn't left his hand funny is hard for me to process.

 

Just how strong is this kid's arm?

[formerlyofCtown]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66

 

Bills Still Have A Lot to Work On

 

So some old friends came to town Saturday to see their son play for Arizona against the UConn men.   They got me a ticket and I went to the game.  At 1:00 p.m.   I went to a sports bar after the game and caught the fourth quarter of the Bills’ loss to Dolphins.  I haven’t watched any video except a few highlights.  I haven’t even studied the stats.

 

In case you’re interested, Arizona won, but the UConn men are back!  Dan Hurley’s the new coach, and he’s for real.  The roster is the same but their game is TOTALLY different.  Don’t sleep on the Huskies. 

 

How am I feeling about the Bills?   Great!   Why?  Because it’s all about the QB – everything else is just details, and I’m confident that McDermott and Beane will get the details straightened out over the next year or two. 

 

It’s all about the QB, and – MAN – the guy can play!   Watching the Bills with Allen on the field is a completely different experience from watching the Bills any other time since Bledsoe left.  The whole offense looks better.   Six weeks ago my cousin told me Zay Jones would not make the roster of any other NFL team.   He isn’t saying that now.   Foster looks like a real receiver.  The pass protection is better.  Allen has made the whole team better. 

 

I came away from the game with three important impressions, important at least to me:

 

1.    I’ve said it before, but it’s worth repeating:  McDermott is failing at his job in at least one big aspect, and that’s getting the penalties under control.  These guys are killing themselves with penalties.

2.    I’ve been saying for weeks that Allen isn’t making rookie mistakes.  Well, the interception on the throw to Benjamin was a rookie mistake.   No way that Allen should have missed that defender.   Rookie mistakes are okay if (a) the guy making the mistake is a rookie and (b) he learns from them.   I hope Allen learned something.

3.    Allen is a spectacular passer, but spectacular isn’t good enough if he isn’t consistent.  He can’t overthrow Foster on the deep ball, and he can’t underthrow Clay on the fourth down game winner.  He can’t be a star in the league if he doesn’t make those throws. 

 

No one connects on every throw, and the overthrow of Foster was awfully close.   Brady, Brees and Rodgers might have overthrown him.  Still, gotta hit them.

 

Yes, Clay could have caught that ball to win the game, and I’m sure he said he should have caught it.   He’s caught balls like that before.   But that’s beside the point; that play was all on Allen.  Yes, he made an outstanding scramble to give himself time to make the throw – most QBs would have been sacked at some point on that play.   But then he turned into a rookie.  He had time – he’d run away from everyone, and he had plenty of time to get his body turned and his feet set, particularly important because he had been running left and now was throwing right.  And when he found Clay he could see that Clay was all alone with a lot of open space toward the sideline.   Allen had plenty of time to turn, set his feet and get the ball to Clay for an uncontested catch.  It was a long throw, to be sure – it traveled about 50 yards in the air, and to make it an easy catch for Clay it needed to go 55 maybe 60 yards.  Allen, properly set, can make that throw all day.  

 

I think Allen let the moment beat him.   He knew he had it, but he didn’t have his emotions sufficiently under control to stop and make the play he should have.  Brady, Brees and Rodgers would have made it.  It was a rookie mistake.  It cost the Bills the game, and he knows it. 

 

All I know is that watching the Bills is FUN again.  I’d forgotten how much fun it can be, after all those years of watching all those other teams with all those other quarterbacks.  

 

I’m going to miss most of the Jets game, too, but I’ll be in Buffalo for the Lions.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

Dont know that Brady or Brees could throw it 60 yards.

[Shaw66]

36 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Dont know that Brady or Brees could throw it 60 yards.

Really?  I guess I never thought about it, but I'd guess that Brees for sure and Brady probably can.   And 55 was all that was necessary.   

 

But maybe you're right.   

Here;s Brees throwing 55.  

 

Brady throwing 62.  

 

[formerlyofCtown]

20 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Really?  I guess I never thought about it, but I'd guess that Brees for sure and Brady probably can.   And 55 was all that was necessary.   

 

But maybe you're right.   

Here;s Brees throwing 55.  

 

Brady throwing 62.  

 

Thanks.   Knew Brees could in the past  but didnt know brady threw it that far.  Do you have anything that isnt 7 and 10 years ago.  It is interesting that Brady under threw it about the same amount that Allen overthrew it.  The fact is that it happens to be a very low percentage pass.  Brady may have completed 5-6 tds that traveled that distance through the air in his entire career.  Drew Brees is one of my favorite QBs of all time and one of the most accurate in my opinion.  Even he only has a few.  

 

Maybe Im misunderstanding you but you make it ou to be a routine throw and its not its a very low percentage.

 

In 2016 Brady completed only 33% of passes that traveled 41+ let alone 55 yards.  Drew Brees had 0% on his 2 such attempts.  The NFL average was 33% on attempts of 21+

21-30 yds Brady 46%, Brees 39%

31-40 yds Brees 59%, Brady 13%

So he needs to hit some of them and its more likely than not that Brady and Brees will under or overthrow foster and even properly set Allen will miss around 50% of those throws.

[billsfan89]

9 hours ago, Binghamton Beast said:

Allen stops running and takes the time to set, Clay very well could have been covered by the time the ball got there.

 

No issue with Allen at all on that play.

 

 

That play has a lot of moving parts, Allen did an excellent job getting a pass catcher to be in position to make a play on the ball. It wasn't the easiest play but it was one a player should have made. 

 

Yes if you run the play the exact same way 100 times there are many ways it can be done better. But that's also easy to diagnose in hindsight where almost every play can be done better. 

 

Allen did a great job on that play. Clay adjusted to the ball enough to be able to make a play on it but couldn't seal the deal. 

[Commish]

The good news is that Allen's a smart dude who learns from his mistakes - next time, he'll set up right, his receivers will have worked on what to do/where to go in a scramble - and hopefully, it's in a game where the end of Q4 really matters, i.e. not Bill-Dolphins 2018.

Edited December 5, 2018 by Roch-A-Bill

[SoCal Deek]

If the ball’s been in the air for 50 yards I think Clay had more than enough time to get under it!  Stop blaming the QB for throwing it to a wide open ‘receiver’. Clay is pure garbage.

[Shaw66]

7 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Thanks.   Knew Brees could in the past  but didnt know brady threw it that far.  Do you have anything that isnt 7 and 10 years ago.  It is interesting that Brady under threw it about the same amount that Allen overthrew it.  The fact is that it happens to be a very low percentage pass.  Brady may have completed 5-6 tds that traveled that distance through the air in his entire career.  Drew Brees is one of my favorite QBs of all time and one of the most accurate in my opinion.  Even he only has a few.  

 

Maybe Im misunderstanding you but you make it ou to be a routine throw and its not its a very low percentage.

 

In 2016 Brady completed only 33% of passes that traveled 41+ let alone 55 yards.  Drew Brees had 0% on his 2 such attempts.  The NFL average was 33% on attempts of 21+

21-30 yds Brady 46%, Brees 39%

31-40 yds Brees 59%, Brady 13%

So he needs to hit some of them and its more likely than not that Brady and Brees will under or overthrow foster and even properly set Allen will miss around 50% of those throws.

Thanks for the data.  It's pretty persuasive.   Amazing that Brady was 13% on lonSo I'd say you're right, Brady wouldn't have made the throw that was necessary. 

 

You say you're misunderstanding me, and maybe you and others are.   Here's how I feel about it. 

 

The only stat that matters is wins.  The QB is the most important player on the field, and his job, like it or not, is to deliver wins.  Fourth quarter drives, big plays when his team needs them.  Nothing matters except wins.   It doesn't matter if you've completed 25 in a row; if you need number 26 to win the game and you don't get it,  the QB hasn't done all that he needs to do.   

 

Allen, from the reports I've seen and the portion of the game I saw, had a game that once again showed that he's a special talent.   On his final play, he showed that he's a special talent.  But Allen had one more thing he had to do in the game, and that was stop and set his feet before he threw.  He didn't do that, and as a result underthrew the ball.  I'd guess if you asked him he'd tell you he underthrew it by five yards - that is, he intended to lead Clay to a spot directly on line with the throw he made, but  farther toward the sideline and 4-5 yards deeper in the end zone.  He didn't make the throw he needed or wanted, and he missed by a lot. .  

 

It was a catchable ball, for sure.  Any ball that hits the receiver in the hands in the NFL is a catchable ball.  So Allen gave his teammate a chance to make a play, which means that Allen did the minimum on the the play.  However, his job is to win the game, not to do the minimum.

 

Compare this throw to the throw up the left sideline to Jones that was called incomplete after review.   Now, that was a much tougher catch than Clay's, but an NFL receiver is supposed to make that catch.   He ran his route, he made his cut, the ball was delivered in a good spot for him to make the catch.  THAT was the kind of throw that wins football games, but Jones couldn't come up with it.  

 

Think about Clay.   He is not one of the great tight ends.   He's had more than his share of drops.   He's an all-purpose tight end, not primarily a receiving tight end.   He'd just run around for about 8 seconds at the end of a long, hard game.  He made a lousy break on the ball, made an awkward attempt to get his hands on the ball, and as a result needed to make a pure hands catch on the way to ground.   This wasn't Stevie Johnson in stride dropping a perfect throw in the end zone to win the game.   Clay isn't any place close to being a number 1 receiver, he hasn't ever been known for consistently plucking balls out of the air or off the ground, this wasn't a play where Clay was the primary receiver and came open in stride as the play was designed.  That was a low-probability catch for him. 

 

I'm not defending Clay, and I'm not saying he couldn't and shouldn't have caught it.   

 

What I am saying is that looking back on Josh Allen's career, if he is going to be a great QB, he's going to win those games, not have spectacular highlights from games he lost.  He did a lot of great things in that game, but unless that final pass is completed, Josh Allen didn't have a great game.  That throw five yards deeper for a TD is part of Allen's all-time highlight reel; the only highlight reel the actual play makes is the highlight of greatest Bills' disappointments, along with Stevie's drop and Terence McGee's kickoff return against the Saints.  

 

Allen will do better next time.  That is, he'll be great, and the Bills will win.  

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, Roch-A-Bill said:

The good news is that Allen's a smart dude who learns from his mistakes - next time, he'll set up right, his receivers will have worked on what to do/where to go in a scramble - and hopefully, it's in a game where the end of Q4 really matters, i.e. not Bill-Dolphins 2018.

Absolutely right.

 

Let's face it.  This season iis Allen's opportunity to get used to the NFL, to raise his game from the college level to the pro level.  That's why it's been so important to get him on the field.  The things he's seeing and doing are teaching him what it takes to succeed in the NFL.  2018 is, in a sense, the "preseason" for his career.  

 

Think of all the things he knows now that he didn't know a year ago.   He's way up the learning curve.  Starting in the 2019 offseason, he and the coaching staff and his receiving corps are going to be working on the little details that make the difference between OK and great.  It's clear he already has the big picture; next season he's going to be refining his skills.   Next year he's going to be the number 1 guy, getting a lot of reps with the receivers he's going to see on the field next season.  

 

I'd guess that if there was a redraft today, and all the GMs had all the film of the 2018 season available to them, Josh Allen would go to Cleveland.  I'd guess that coaches are looking at the film of Allen and recognizing that, however many great ones may be just at the beginning of their careers (Mahomes, Goff, Wentz, Mayfield, Wentz are the current favorites), Allen is definitely one of them.  

[Nihilarian]

15 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Overall, i disagree with your assessment here, Shaw66, though I love your takes. This may not be popular, but I firmly believe Josh was tired. Literally. The Houdini escape you saw was at least the 6th time he had to perform the feat in the game, to say nothing of running for approximately 1000 yrds through the course of the game and throwing at least 650 yrds including incompletions. Yes, he managed to wriggle free and appeared to have enough time to stop and set his feet but it was all happening very fast, the clock read 00:00 and he found a guy open. There’s a reason he trusts his arm strength, even though he was physically drained. It had enough mustard to get it to open open area near the open receiver. Nothing more could reasonably be expected.

Exhausted is more like it in that heat. It was amazing watching that kid run around like Fran Tarkington (while Allen is at 6'5'' 240lbs) all game long. The total amount of yards he ended up running through the coarse of the game was crazy too. 

 

Hopefully at some point Beane finds receivers that comeback to Allen when he starts running around like he does and they actually catch the ball. 

Edited December 5, 2018 by Nihilarian

[formerlyofCtown]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks for the data.  It's pretty persuasive.   Amazing that Brady was 13% on lonSo I'd say you're right, Brady wouldn't have made the throw that was necessary. 

 

You say you're misunderstanding me, and maybe you and others are.   Here's how I feel about it. 

 

The only stat that matters is wins.  The QB is the most important player on the field, and his job, like it or not, is to deliver wins.  Fourth quarter drives, big plays when his team needs them.  Nothing matters except wins.   It doesn't matter if you've completed 25 in a row; if you need number 26 to win the game and you don't get it,  the QB hasn't done all that he needs to do.   

 

Allen, from the reports I've seen and the portion of the game I saw, had a game that once again showed that he's a special talent.   On his final play, he showed that he's a special talent.  But Allen had one more thing he had to do in the game, and that was stop and set his feet before he threw.  He didn't do that, and as a result underthrew the ball.  I'd guess if you asked him he'd tell you he underthrew it by five yards - that is, he intended to lead Clay to a spot directly on line with the throw he made, but  farther toward the sideline and 4-5 yards deeper in the end zone.  He didn't make the throw he needed or wanted, and he missed by a lot. .  

 

It was a catchable ball, for sure.  Any ball that hits the receiver in the hands in the NFL is a catchable ball.  So Allen gave his teammate a chance to make a play, which means that Allen did the minimum on the the play.  However, his job is to win the game, not to do the minimum.

 

Compare this throw to the throw up the left sideline to Jones that was called incomplete after review.   Now, that was a much tougher catch than Clay's, but an NFL receiver is supposed to make that catch.   He ran his route, he made his cut, the ball was delivered in a good spot for him to make the catch.  THAT was the kind of throw that wins football games, but Jones couldn't come up with it.  

 

Think about Clay.   He is not one of the great tight ends.   He's had more than his share of drops.   He's an all-purpose tight end, not primarily a receiving tight end.   He'd just run around for about 8 seconds at the end of a long, hard game.  He made a lousy break on the ball, made an awkward attempt to get his hands on the ball, and as a result needed to make a pure hands catch on the way to ground.   This wasn't Stevie Johnson in stride dropping a perfect throw in the end zone to win the game.   Clay isn't any place close to being a number 1 receiver, he hasn't ever been known for consistently plucking balls out of the air or off the ground, this wasn't a play where Clay was the primary receiver and came open in stride as the play was designed.  That was a low-probability catch for him. 

 

I'm not defending Clay, and I'm not saying he couldn't and shouldn't have caught it.   

 

What I am saying is that looking back on Josh Allen's career, if he is going to be a great QB, he's going to win those games, not have spectacular highlights from games he lost.  He did a lot of great things in that game, but unless that final pass is completed, Josh Allen didn't have a great game.  That throw five yards deeper for a TD is part of Allen's all-time highlight reel; the only highlight reel the actual play makes is the highlight of greatest Bills' disappointments, along with Stevie's drop and Terence McGee's kickoff return against the Saints.  

 

Allen will do better next time.  That is, he'll be great, and the Bills will win.  

Its refreshing to actually have a decent football discussion on this board.  I think they both could have done better but at least both made effort unlike the WR we just sent out of town.