Teddy KGB Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, NoSaint said: Said everyone on the plane to San Diego Said everyone on the plane from Jacksonville ?☠️?☠️?☠️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purple haze Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 (edited) 14 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Oh, I agree 100%. But of course the media would expect a drop off when you lose a guy like that and replace him with 3 unknowns. I know now the media is evil now but I think this is completely reasonable. I think most “realistic” Billsfans expect a drop off. Now if AJ is Brady Jr or Allen is Big Ben, expectations will change. I don't know how anyone expects anything. There are too many unknowns to say one way or the other. It seems folks automatically place the unknown in the negative column. It could be that the unknown produces good fruit. We shall see. Edited July 28, 2018 by purple haze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 9 hours ago, Jauronimo said: Your man love for Ducasse and Groy is as strange as it is creepy. What kind of man gets a tattoo of Vlad Ducasse on his lower back?? 9 hours ago, joesixpack said: No stranger or creepier than your crusty poster of tyrod. "Get a room" you two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 (edited) Put it this way: Before rookie contract slotting, this time of year meant every NFL media person, large and small, had their big chance to catch national attention, and lots of eyeballs, by covering hold-outs. Now, they have little to say, yet their job is to say something, so they do predictions. I really wouldn't want the job of predicting the Bills this year. So many things can go so many ways. The smart play: predict 8-8. Remember the clowns here and elsewhere who predicted 4-12 last year? See, I don't have a problem with predictions. I have a problem with people whose prediction becomes "law" the instant they make it, and spend the rest of the season trying to prove it. Then, when their prediction(and most of the rest of their opinion) is mathematically eliminated? They refuse to admit failure about something that was always a stab in the dark. Silly. Solution: don't dig your heels in about your prediction until week 11 at the earliest. Doing it in Wk 4, or now? Silly. Remember: statistically, the most likely outcome for ALL teams is 8-8, every season. 9-7, 8-8, 7-9 are nothing more, or less, than meeting statistical expectations. 4-12 and 12-4 are absolutely equal in terms of their propensity to occur: low. Thus predicting the former has the same high risk of being wrong as the latter. The exact same. Variables like: "new coach", "new scheme", etc. mean little. (EDIT: They might mean something emotionally, but they mean nothing analytically.) Why? The wider the range of values for these variables(new coach: good, new coach: bad, new coach: OK), and amount of them, the MORE likley 8-8 regression occurs. (Right now, Daboll's range of possible value as an OC for this team/these players: extremely wide.) Why? In the real world the more independent variables any system has, the more likley they are to cancel each other out. Or, a group of them will average out the outliers. Consider the opposite case: if there were very few variables, their values would have a massive, easily observable impact on outcome, thus enhancing our predictive modeling confidence. Exponentially so, if the range of the possible values for each variable was small(Same bad/good coach from last year can only get 15% worse/better, at most == a lot more predictable). They might still cancel each other out, but as you approach 0 variables, the less chance of that. Thus, IF someone is predicting 4-12, or 12-4...right now? In Today's NFL? That == handing math a whip and daring it to punish them. If "facts don't care about your feelings", math cares even less. Thus, making predictions in preseason, beyond 8-8(7-9, 9-7), should never be done or taken seriously. Anything else? Expect the Whip. (EDIT: I already have an answer about Vegas and preseason et al, and why they do it, etc. Ask if you want, but the above will still remain true) Edited July 28, 2018 by OCinBuffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaywrizzo Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 21 hours ago, SCBills said: The National Media has such a weird idea of what Tyrod Taylor is. One would think that after the Nationally Televised Playoff Game at Jacksonville, they would see what we’ve seen for years, but apparently not. AJ McCarron is basically a less mobile/better passing Tyrod Taylor aka “Game Manager”. If we start the season with AJ, here’s what I see: - New OC - New Game Manager at QB - Potentially weaker OL - Potentially stronger RB unit - Similar Receivers - Potentially stronger DL - Potentially stronger LB unit - Similar Secondary If we start the season with Allen, all bets are off as that’s a high risk/high reward play (speaking in terms of this season only) If talking heads want to doom us because they think our schedule is tough. Ok, I get it. We didn’t get worse though - On paper, I believe the 18/19 squad is much more talented than the 17/18 version. I know right....look at all the nice Wr's we brought in and our O line is way better than it was last yr.....what???? Are I serious?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manther Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 On 7/27/2018 at 11:07 AM, BeginnersMind said: This will happen--the increase in INTs. But I'd prefer more first downs in 3rd and 7, and more points on O, and a few more times when the D has to come up with a big play after a turnover. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 On 7/27/2018 at 10:38 AM, MJS said: Bashing on the Bills is so in style right now. Every national talking head is doing it. And when everyone does it, the perception gets even stronger. But they are all pretty foolish. The Bills are not a 0 win team. They have a strong defense and an elite RB. They'll get to their usual 7 to 9 wins I'll bet. Probably will miss the playoffs, but not be a bottom feeder. But heck, I could be wrong. Anyone predicting 0 wins is an idiot. But honestly I myself think this will be a 6 win season. The defense will carry the team to win some games but the offense might be the worst in the league. That's not to say that I don't think the team isn't headed in the right direction. The defense is in place with lots of good pieces, the offense has a clear plan at QB and some other pieces. The culture change is in full effect and the team will be out of cap hell come the 2019 off-season. This Bills team reminds me a lot of the 2003 team (The same one that finished 6-10 I believe) there is a lot of potential for the defense to be a top unit but the offense will struggle a lot. There are also a lot of depth questions. The QB position will either be a game manager in AJ or a very raw rookie in Allen, either will put limitations on the offense, the O-line could be really bad and the skill position corps is lacking esp in terms of depth. It's not unfair for a pundit to put the offensive concerns and the pass rush concerns above the progress made last year to predict regression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTbills Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 On 7/27/2018 at 11:03 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said: I think the national media are looking at our overall offensive production when they predict "regression" " But this is the perfect example of the national media not having a clue about the Buffalo Bills. They go... "You got rid of Tyrod? His completion percentage and turnover ratio were really high, how are you going to win without him?!?!?!?" When anybody who actually watched this team play a football game last year will tell you that, yeah, he had those stats because he checked it down or didn't even throw the ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigs Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 On 7/27/2018 at 9:39 AM, CLTbills said: We had the 31st ranked passing attack. I highly doubt we're going to "regress" at that position. We are regressing. I also don’t see throwing the ball much this year with QBs who don’t manage the game as well as Tyrod did. No receivers worth their salt, except for peg leg. Plus they have this HoF caliber RB you may or may not have heard of, who looks like the strongest link in the offense. 1 hour ago, CLTbills said: But this is the perfect example of the national media not having a clue about the Buffalo Bills. They go... "You got rid of Tyrod? His completion percentage and turnover ratio were really high, how are you going to win without him?!?!?!?" When anybody who actually watched this team play a football game last year will tell you that, yeah, he had those stats because he checked it down or didn't even throw the ball. Yet he got us to the playoffs, and that DOES matter. This isn’t Madden my dude. Drew Bledsoe threw for over 4000 yards, we had an ok running game, a revitalized Eric Moulds and a great #2 in Peerless Price. Didn’t make the playoffs.... life isnt madden my dude. I really hope you realize this someday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTbills Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Yeah, we got to the playoffs. Was/am I excited about that? Hell yeah. But the fact is, we had the next-to-worst passing attack in the lead. We were fourteen yards away from being the worst. We got to the playoffs on the back of Shady, NOT Tyrod. Did he get us to the playoffs? Yeah, I guess you could say that because he was our quarterback. But if you think he's the main reason we got to the playoffs, and not Shady, and the turnovers created by our defense, then I think you and I were watching different teams last year. Furthermore, we made the playoffs at 9-7 in an incredibly weak AFC and, although the score was close, lost EMBARRASSINGLY to Jacksonville in the WC round. Again, was/am I excited about the playoffs? You bet. The last time we were in the playoffs, I was 10 years old. But if 9-7 in a very weak conference and barely squeaking into the playoffs on a miraculous 4th and whatever play by another team 800 miles away and then getting embarrassed in the playoffs is the goal here.... I'm not sure that's a team that I want to be a fan of. Thankfully, I know that this coaching staff has it's sights set much higher. We almost cannot regress at the QB position. We were fourteen yards from being the absolute worst in the league. So I guess, technically, we could regress those fourteen yards. But that's okay if it's with a rookie, still getting his feet underneath him, as long as there's progress. Insanity is leaving a 3-year starter, who just led your offense to the next-to-last passing attack in the league, in your offense, and expecting something to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formerlyofCtown Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 On 7/27/2018 at 9:57 AM, SCBills said: Agreed. I’m not saying we will have a better record, I legitimately don’t know, but we are more talented. Change could mean worse.. OR Change could involve Daboll being an innovative Sean McVay-type, with better QB play from AJ or Josh, with a better 1-2 punch at RB and a healthy KB and Zay in the fold at WR, all supported by a Top 10 Defense. On paper, we’re more talented, with lots of change and a tough 1st half schedule. That’s what I believe to be true, in my humble opinion. What that means record-wise, I don’t know. I don't agree that we are more talented. But the players may fit better and be more productive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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