Step-by-step, how the Bills knew Josh Allen was right for them

[Sky Diver]

5 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

High cheek bones, yes. ‘Injun Josh’, ala ‘Injun Joe’ Kapp. 

Nice sqaw too!?

 

He’s going to make a lot of wampum too, pale face.

[Patrick Duffy]

[C.Biscuit97]

4 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

Ok, I get that you don't like the Josh Allen pick and you've clearly indicated why, fair enough. But I take issue with your statement, "their offensive player evaluations have been really bad". Considering the mess Beane and McD inherited related to the Cap and aging Offensive players, how so?

 

They trade a 3rd for Benjamin in a year when at the time they were 5-2 and needed an outside WR to help Tyrod. Benjamin got hurt and struggled, but were they supposed to be able to project that?

 

Zay had 399 catches in the NCAA, a guy doesn't "forget" how to catch a ball unlike speedsters in college who can't really play ball in the NFL. Then we find out he had a torn labrum for the entire year, which can make it difficult to get extension on making catches not to mention "The Trip" in the Jets game just as he was rounding into form....go back and look at that game and you can see how he was just starting to put it together and then that ugly, cheap shot changed his trajectory in combination with the aforementioned shoulder injury. Dawkins as you said so far has shown tremendous promise. 

 

Beane went out got much deeper, although questionable the level of talent, on the Offensive line with four year starter in Bodine and Newhouse who can play both RT and G. It was painfully obvious Beane committed to clearing the Cap, taking the hit this year, and moving forward. Kerley has made his living in the slot, Benjamin and Zay both *should* be healthy making a real difference, and then in the Draft got speedy, shifty WRs like Proehl and Ray-Ray the return guy from Clemson. THEN in UDFA got Foster to come to Buffalo who also adds more speed and RAC type of play. Who knows how Proehl, Ray-Ray (for returns) and Foster do for the Bills - IF they do anything. But to say Beane and McD's picks or choices in FA have been "really bad" is so presumptuous it's asinine. And keep in mind, Teller the G from VT, was considered a steal by many Draftniks saying he had a 3rd to 4th round grade and PFF had him ranked much higher. Again, who knows how he plays, but he *could* be the Offensive Line version of the 5th Round pick Kyle Williams. Point being at this point, we just don't know....and I'm ok with trusting them considering what they've done thus far, and yet knowing it all needs to be proven before we start talking about them in effusive glowing praise. 

 

I don't know how Allen will do or Zay or Teller or any of the others. But what I do know, is this current FO and HC and staff have already shown they know how to coach, get players at bargain or fair prices, and willing to adjust or admit they need change, see exit Dennison and enter Daboll. All the while slitting that monkey's throat that sat on our backs for so long he was about to enter college. 

 

All that said, we'll see.....but for now, I'll take it. And still, to be able to decisively say their decisions for Offense have been anything other than unknown presumes your insight to be true and obviously you overvalue your own opinion. 

1) Carolina kinda sucked at wr and was willing to trade KB in the middle of a playoff hunt.  His knees are terrible, he always struggled to get separation, and has gotten worse statistically every year.

 

2) mike tolbert

 

3) Rick Dennison 

 

4) zero speed at receiver

 

5) I wanted JuJu, they traded up for Zay.  And I’m certainly not giving up on Zay but man, it was a tough start and that was before he fought for Jesus.  Also, it feels like a favor to his former college coach (as does the Proehl pick).

 

6) the Peterman start is one of the worst decisions in a long time.

 

Obviously, McDermott isn’t going anywhere. He brought the drought.  Personally, I think it was Jauronball with better luck.  I think he is a fine coach and with a good qb will be good.  But I don’t like how much power he has and I wish we had a more proven offensive guy to help this pick such an important pick.

 

but I’m begging to be horribly wrong. I have once before!

4 hours ago, eball said:

 

What is the point of posting over and over again that you believe there is "overwhelming evidence" Allen will fail?  It's ridiculous.  Several of you are so invested in being the guys who "knew" Allen wouldn't pan out it's really pretty annoying, and I don't know what purpose that serves.

This is such a BS post but I’ll leave it alone.  No one wants Allen to fail.  

3 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Beane went on record to say Allen isn't fixed yet but improving. My bigger concerned is he only improved on a practice/all star game field that once he the bullets start firing for real again his old instincts will kick back in. 

That’s why I hate how guys move up and down in the draft process months after their seasons ended.  It blows my mind how many prospects rise/ fall because of their work in shorts.  And this isn’t just Allen.

[CommonCents]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) Carolina kinda sucked at wr and was willing to trade KB in the middle of a playoff hunt.  His knees are terrible, he always struggled to get separation, and has gotten worse statistically every year.

 

2) mike tolbert

 

3) Rick Dennison 

 

4) zero speed at receiver

 

5) I wanted JuJu, they traded up for Zay.  And I’m certainly not giving up on Zay but man, it was a tough start and that was before he fought for Jesus.  Also, it feels like a favor to his former college coach (as does the Proehl pick).

 

6) the Peterman start is one of the worst decisions in a long time.

 

Obviously, McDermott isn’t going anywhere. He brought the drought.  Personally, I think it was Jauronball with better luck.  I think he is a fine coach and with a good qb will be good.  But I don’t like how much power he has and I wish we had a more proven offensive guy to help this pick such an important pick.

 

but I’m begging to be horribly wrong. I have once before!

You don’t like how much power he has but if he took Rosen (your guy) you would be delighted. 

[John from Riverside]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No, no, no, no. I am not invested in Allen not panning out.  Not at all. I'm invested in him panning out. It is possible to want one thing and think another.  

I just want to point out here

 

It is entirely possible that more then one QB pans out from this draft.....there is a chance that EVERYONE could be right here

 

Which of course is ok by me

[C.Biscuit97]

3 hours ago, JohnC said:

You and I have had this discussion before so I apologize for the redundancy. As I said previously there is a significant discrepancy with your assessment of Allen and how the draft and how the draft actually unfolded. For the teams that were making it a priority to get a qb he was ranked very highly. Without question those qb needy teams (at least 5) had him rated in the top 10 to 15 in the first round. In contrast, you had him as a third round prospect. It's just too off kilter with what actually transpired in the draft for your evaluation to seem reasonable to me. 

 

In this qb class I liked Rosen a lot. On the other hand I would have been more than elated with any of the top qbs. I'm not assuming you are wrong but I am very perplexed how you arrived at your conclusion while being so far from the  mainstream point of view. Being an outlier is being an outlier. And there is nothing wrong with that. However, with respect to your assessment on Allen you have me very befuddled. 

How can be sure where Allen is on any team’s draft board?  Maybe the Bills were the only one who thought of him as 1st rounder.  Maybe every other team did.

 

i think a lot of how we evaluate players is based on where draft “experts” have them ranked.  

8 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

You don’t like how much power he has but if he took Rosen (your guy) you would be delighted. 

Or Darnold. Or Mayfield. Or Jackson to a less extent (because I saw him dominate a very good college conference but I have worries of the Bills developing him).  

 

I think Rosen is the most complete nfl passer in the draft.  But I thought the rest were also more finished products who have a higher chance at succeeding than Allen.  We will see.

12 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I just want to point out here

 

It is entirely possible that more then one QB pans out from this draft.....there is a chance that EVERYONE could be right here

 

Which of course is ok by me

Yup or none do.  I and some others think you should eliminate as much risk as possible.  Allen has the traits that a lot of other bust 1st round QBs have (lower completion %, overvalue because of their arm, shaky competition).  Hopefully, he is an outliner.

[John from Riverside]

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) Carolina kinda sucked at wr and was willing to trade KB in the middle of a playoff hunt.  His knees are terrible, he always struggled to get separation, and has gotten worse statistically every year.

We dont know the whole situation in Carolina but KB is young....has been productive in the past......Do we really fault the bills for trying to get better?   KB when healthy is a very good number 2 guy.

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

2) mike tolbert

Didnt understand this one myself, however while I would love for our bills to get EVERY decision right... .the fact is that NFL teams seldom do that.......you are lucky if you get MOST of them right.

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

3) Rick Dennison 

If memory serves me correctly Rick was not even their first choice for OC......do we really hold this against our front office...AND he was immediately let go after the season...they didnt get stubborn about it which HC's tend to do.

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

4) zero speed at receiver

SEVERAL 4.4 guys on this roster right now

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

5) I wanted JuJu, they traded up for Zay.  And I’m certainly not giving up on Zay but man, it was a tough start and that was before he fought for Jesus.  Also, it feels like a favor to his former college coach (as does the Proehl pick).

So is this about what is right for the bills or who you wanted?   We dont even know if Zay is gonna pan out yet.

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

6) the Peterman start is one of the worst decisions in a long time.

No....Peterman was the RIGHT decision at the time....our offense was FLOUNDERING.....I believe we would have lost that game regardless.....but its all hindsight now as it did not kill the bills from getting into the playoffs....they took a chance (which I like)

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

Obviously, McDermott isn’t going anywhere. He brought the drought.  Personally, I think it was Jauronball with better luck.  I think he is a fine coach and with a good qb will be good.  But I don’t like how much power he has and I wish we had a more proven offensive guy to help this pick such an important pick.

I think McD is a crackerjack of a coach.....I dont equate him to Jauron at all who had all the charisma and energy of the kryptkeeper.   McD gets these guys prepared to play on Sunday...he is engaged...he is a motivator

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

but I’m begging to be horribly wrong. I have once before!

 

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I arrived there watching the film.  I have also said repeatedly I get less wowed by ceiling than NFL teams. They often seem to like high ceiling projects much more than I do. That is true of Allen, Mahomes, Kaepernick etc... 

Allen and Mahomes are on my favored list. Kaepernick is not. Regardless of position if you don't advance your game when you are in the league you will not be on my list. If you were you will be quickly deleted from it. 

[C.Biscuit97]

5 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

We dont know the whole situation in Carolina but KB is young....has been productive in the past......Do we really fault the bills for trying to get better?   KB when healthy is a very good number 2 guy.

Didnt understand this one myself, however while I would love for our bills to get EVERY decision right... .the fact is that NFL teams seldom do that.......you are lucky if you get MOST of them right.

If memory serves me correctly Rick was not even their first choice for OC......do we really hold this against our front office...AND he was immediately let go after the season...they didnt get stubborn about it which HC's tend to do.

SEVERAL 4.4 guys on this roster right now

So is this about what is right for the bills or who you wanted?   We dont even know if Zay is gonna pan out yet.

No....Peterman was the RIGHT decision at the time....our offense was FLOUNDERING.....I believe we would have lost that game regardless.....but its all hindsight now as it did not kill the bills from getting into the playoffs....they took a chance (which I like)

I think McD is a crackerjack of a coach.....I dont equate him to Jauron at all who had all the charisma and energy of the kryptkeeper.   McD gets these guys prepared to play on Sunday...he is engaged...he is a motivator

 

I don’t agree with everything you posted (our 4.4 guys aren’t good wrs) but I respect you John.

 

in my perfect world, a GM hires McDermott and they hire a prove OC or young upcoming one with a history of nfl success.  We did the opposite of this. Ultimately, McBean will be judged on Allen panning out.  If he does, I look like an idiot but I will be very happy because the Bills are set for 10 years.

[JohnC]

16 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

How can be sure where Allen is on any team’s draft board?  Maybe the Bills were the only one who thought of him as 1st rounder.  Maybe every other team did.

 

i think a lot of how we evaluate players is based on where draft “experts” have them ranked.  

 

I have a simple rule of thumb that has proven to be successful. The qbs you are for I am against. The qbs you are against I am for. It is a method that has an exceptional record of success. 

[C.Biscuit97]

5 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Allen and Mahomes are on my favored list. Kaepernick is not. Regardless of position if you don't advance your game when you are in the league you will not be on my list. If you were you will be quickly deleted from it. 

Eh, Kaepernick was 10 yards away from winning a SB and threw for 16 tds to 4 ints in his last, “terrible” season in the nfl.

 

ive been hard on the Allen pick and obviously I want a HOF but if Allen has a stretch where he was dominate nfl qb and we go to a SB, I will consider him a success.

 

 

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Eh, Kaepernick was 10 yards away from winning a SB and threw for 16 tds to 4 ints in his last, “terrible” season in the nfl.

 

ive been hard on the Allen pick and obviously I want a HOF but if Allen has a stretch where he was dominate nfl qb and we go to a SB, I will consider him a success.

 

 

Kaepernick didn't advance his game from his first couple of years. He went by the wayside. You liking him makes me more confident in me not liking him. 

[John from Riverside]

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I don’t agree with everything you posted (our 4.4 guys aren’t good wrs) but I respect you John.

 

in my perfect world, a GM hires McDermott and they hire a prove OC or young upcoming one with a history of nfl success.  We did the opposite of this. Ultimately, McBean will be judged on Allen panning out.  If he does, I look like an idiot but I will be very happy because the Bills are set for 10 years.

I think the answer this is we are in a soft rebiuld and ppl need to understand that......we are carrying a huge dead cap hit this year while they are doing it and I think (I hope) that the real work on the offense starts next year with all that cap room, all of our draft picks that we did NOT give up in trying to get a QB of the future.

 

More then any of that....I feel for the first time in a long time that there is an actual plan....it might not be going as fast as everyone wants but it IS going......I honestly dont think they expected to make the playoffs last year the problem is McD was too good of a coach.

[C.Biscuit97]

8 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I have a simple rule of thumb that has proven to be successful. The qbs you are for I am against. The qbs you are against I am for. It is a method that has an exceptional record of success. 

I don’t know if you’re trying to be funny here but to be clear: I hated Jimmy Clausen. I hated Johnny Manziel . I hated Hackenberg.  I hated Blaine Gabbert. I never got the hype around sam Bradford.

 

I loved Newton, Watson, and Matt Ryan.  They are all in the archives here so since you called me out, feel free to check them out. So if you are going the opposite, your track record is terrible.

 

as a reformed homer, I freely admit that I let my feelings about players be influenced by them.  I hoped EJ would be good because he had the tools and seemed like a great guy. Same with Trent.  I defend Losman until I heard that all his teammates but Lee Evans hated him.  I basically feel like Some fans are doing the same thing I did with EJ with Allen.  At the same point, I get it.  What can you do but hope for the best.

Edited July 20, 2018 by C.Biscuit97

[DC Tom]

12 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Eh, Kaepernick was 10 yards away from winning a SB and threw for 16 tds to 4 ints in his last, “terrible” season in the nfl.

 

 

Taylor threw for 14 TDs and 4 ints last year.  

 

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

[C.Biscuit97]

5 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

 

Taylor threw for 14 TDs and 4 ints last year.  

 

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

And Tyrod had his faults but he did get another starting job and help a team get to the playoffs.  Both of them certainly deserve to be in the nfl instead of Brandon Weeden, who just got a contract.

[CommonCents]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

And Tyrod had his faults but he did get another starting job and help a team get to the playoffs.  Both of them certainly deserve to be in the nfl instead of Brandon Weeden, who just got a contract.

Taylor just got a contract too! Oh wow you brought another thread to it’s knees. Clever.

[JohnC]

36 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I don’t know if you’re trying to be funny here but to be clear: I hated Jimmy Clausen. I hated Johnny Manziel . I hated Hackenberg.  I hated Blaine Gabbert. I never got the hype around sam Bradford.

 

I loved Newton, Watson, and Matt Ryan.  They are all in the archives here so since you called me out, feel free to check them out. So if you are going the opposite, your track record is terrible.

 

as a reformed homer, I freely admit that I let my feelings about players be influenced by them.  I hoped EJ would be good because he had the tools and seemed like a great guy. Same with Trent.  I defend Losman until I heard that all his teammates but Lee Evans hated him.  I basically feel like Some fans are doing the same thing I did with EJ with Allen.  At the same point, I get it.  What can you do but hope for the best.

You are getting carried away and acting as if disagreement is a personal assault. You are wrong. 

[Nihilarian]

4 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Beane went on record to say Allen isn't fixed yet but improving. My bigger concerned is he only improved on a practice/all star game field that once he the bullets start firing for real again his old instincts will kick back in. 

A couple of things here. Allen also showed improvement at the combine and minicamp with his accuracy ...in shorts, I know.

 

The thing is, this is a very bright young man who should pick things up very quickly and also has never had anyone work with him on his mechanics in college. This kid only spent two years as a full-time starter at Wyoming so there is still room for learning, developing. 

 

Everyone also needs to realize that although Allen might be the next Favre, Elway in the making. He won't get very far behind a crappy offensive line with no run game especially if being asked to play from behind all the time. The Bills just lost three pro bowlers on their line from last season and this new crop is very questionable. Plus the receiver corps isn't all that great. 

 

No man is an Island! Jim Kelly didn't do it all by himself for those super bowl runs as he had HoF RB Thurman Thomas who was around 70% of the offense back then. Plus he had two WR HoFers in James Lofton and Andre Reed. Not to mention how solid that left side of the offensive line was back then with LT Wolford, LG Ritcher, C Kent Hull with all three pro bowlers and one first team all pro. 

 

I'm hoping Allen sits this year and they throw Peterman, AJ to the wolves until they get that line up to par. The QB is only one piece of a large puzzle. 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Do your’s jibe with mine?

 

And I think Allen is a better prospect. Reasonable people can disagree.

 

I am absolutely fine with disagreeing. When people infer that I don't judge people on the same basis (like I somehow have some bias towards or against these guys) that is what I object to. There is no part of me that has any bias towards Josh Rosen or Baker Mayfield or against Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. I just like the chances of the games of the first two transitioning better than the latter two. No cherry picking, no ignoring things... just my honest view on what I see on tape.