How accurate were the 2017 NFL mock drafts?

[PIZ]

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2017/5/3/15517982/mock-draft-nfl-2017-results

[The Frankish Reich]

I'll give you the short answer: after the first 10 picks, basically useless. And even more useless if a late trade messes things up for your team.  This is why I pay zero attention to mock drafts.

Edited April 21, 2018 by The Frankish Reich

[Jay_Fixit]

As usual, nobody knows anything.

[thebandit27]

Mine was pretty decent.

 

I correctly matched:

Garrett to Cleveland at 1

Thomas to SF (at 2 instead of 3)

Fournette to Jax at 4

McCaffrey to Carolina at 7

Lattimore to NO at 11

Watson to Houston (at 25 instead of 12)

Allen to Washington at 17

 

I also correctly identified 27 of the 32 players selected in round 1

[KDIGGZ]

I got the entire first round correct...but I can't find my sheet anywhere...so just take my word for it

[RunninRebel37]

On an adjacent note....NFL Network is airing all the previous first round draft coverage going back to 2010....except the 2013 draft...Poor EJ. 

[Elite Poster]

Its usually not accurate in terms of who lands where, but overall draft position is pretty spot on for a majority of the stuff that is out there. 

[mead107]

Ugly 

[4merper4mer]

5 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Mine was pretty decent.

 

I correctly matched:

Garrett to Cleveland at 1

Thomas to SF (at 2 instead of 3)

Fournette to Jax at 4

McCaffrey to Carolina at 7

Lattimore to NO at 11

Watson to Houston (at 25 instead of 12)

Allen to Washington at 17

 

I also correctly identified 27 of the 32 players selected in round 1

Curious if you had White going in the first.

[thebandit27]

26 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Curious if you had White going in the first.

 

He was my 27th ranked player; had him going 33 to Cleveland 

[maryland-bills-fan]

Mine was pretty good, but that was because all the teams called me up before sending up their pick to see if I approved.

[folz]

I thought the writer was going to show that overall (like if you took an average of all of the mock drafts), that their prediction rate would at least be relatively accurate when he wrote, 

 

"On Thursday, few mock drafters got more than a handful of first-round picks correct. Collectively, though the analysts were more accurate than you might think."

 

And then he just runs all of these charts for each draft pick (with the exact team picking that player in that slot not a requirement) to apparently prove his point. But what the charts show is:

 

 Only 3 of the 32 picks were guessed by more than 50% of the mockers polled (and those 3 picks were #1, #3, and #4---many years there is a pretty good idea how the top 4 picks might go, so...)

 

Overall, only 9 picks had a better than 10% hit rate by the mockers.

 

And 20 of the picks had only a 0-5% hit rate by the mockers.

 

So, basically he is saying the mockers on aggregate are more accurate than you think because (outside of two picks that no one got right) at least one person picked the selection for each draft spot. I'm sorry, but one, two, or three out of 120 does not prove any accuracy or that the draft isn't a complete, unpredictable crap shoot as we all know that it is. I kind of think that he wrote the article just so he could say this...

 

"Only Dane Brugler of CBS Sports, Andrew Gribble of ClevelandBrowns.com, and my own mock draft here at SB Nation projected Trubisky to be picked by the Bears."

[26CornerBlitz]