Let the record I'm against trade into top 6 due to price

[Mat68]

Each is entitled to their own opinion.  If Buffalo stays at 12 and they miss out on the top 5 Qbs I will lose a lot of the early favor Beane has brought with him.  Buffalo has not had a Franchise qb at minimum since Bledsoe.  He was already on the down side of his career.  The last Qb drafted and was a franchise Qb was taken over 30 years ago.  in modern day football Buffalo has never draft a QB within the first 10 picks.  That correlates to why Buffalo has had 1 franchise Qb.  I dont really care it its 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 go get the guy you have faith in and get the franchsie going towards a contender not a middling team looking to back into a wildcard spot.

[Nanker]

We could get to #8 in trades with Chicago:

 

Bears get:

Bills #12 - 1,200 points

Bills # 56 - 340 points (24th Pick in 2nd Round)

Bills # 65 - 265 points (1st Pick in 3rd Round)

Bills # 96 - 116 points

Total 1,921 points

 

Bills get:

Bears #8 - 1,400 points

Bears # 39 - 510 points

Total 1,910 points

 

We'd have seven picks: #8, 22, 39, 53, 121, 166, and 187 

 

And then from #8, Bean could trade up to #4 for a 2019 2nd or 3rd rounder or to #2 for 2019's First rounder.

[Reed83HOF]

4 minutes ago, Nanker said:

We could get to #8 in trades with Chicago:

 

Bears get:

Bills #12 - 1,200 points

Bills # 56 - 340 points (24th Pick in 2nd Round)

Bills # 65 - 265 points (1st Pick in 3rd Round)

Bills # 96 - 116 points

Total 1,921 points

 

Bills get:

Bears #8 - 1,400 points

Bears # 39 - 510 points

Total 1,910 points

 

We'd have seven picks: #8, 22, 39, 53, 121, 166, and 187 

 

And then from #8, Bean could trade up to #4 for a 2019 2nd or 3rd rounder or to #2 for 2019's First rounder.

Need to look at the 40% premium the Jets attached from 6 to 3. Factor a smaller premium to go to 8 and then factor 30%-40% from 8 to 2....

[Pete]

42 minutes ago, ricojes said:

Let the record show that I will forget Pete's LAMP by draft day....

I just put it out there so you can give me **** if we trade two drafts and end up with a QB as good as Aaron Rogers.  And just in case we end up with Blaine Gabbart, , RJIII, et al- you have been warned.  I believe a good QB can be had without trading into top 6.  My guess is 90% of this board wants the give up all those picks for a lottery ticket.  I don't mind being one of the few warning about squandering picks.

 

And like I have been saying- I root for the uniform.  I would be ecstatic if we hit on a QB.  

Edited March 30, 2018 by Pete

[Nanker]

2 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Need to look at the 40% premium the Jets attached from 6 to 3. Factor a smaller premium to go to 8 and then factor 30%-40% from 8 to 2....

Chicago needs picks. They have none in Round 3, two in round 4, and one each in 5, 6, and 7.  

[Reed83HOF]

3 minutes ago, Nanker said:

Chicago needs picks. They have none in Round 3, two in round 4, and one each in 5, 6, and 7.  

I agree they need picks. I think 8 is a bit too low for us to use to parlay for #2 - I think 6 is the lowest personally. I also think that teams will be looking for premiums to move up. The Colts got a 40% bonus for a 3 spot jump. Other teams will want that, especially if they need picks...JMO of course

[Nihilarian]

What a lot of Bills fans that are in this trade up frenzy don't get is there are some later round QB's that teams like the Patriots, Steelers are interested in to develop.

 

The odds are that a 1st round QB making it in the NFL is at 38% so that means out of five guys only two probably make it...which two? Darnold, Rosen? Mayfield, Allen?

 

I'll be honest here are as I recall so much hype over RG3 and others. Now, look at them. I left off some later round picks.

 

2010, #1 Sam Bradford, #25 Tim Tebow, #78 Jimmy Clausen, #85 Colt McCoy

2011, #1 Cam Newton, #8 Jake Locker, #12 Christian Ponder, #35 Andy Dalton, #36 Colin Kaepernick, #74 Ryan Mallett

2012, #1 Andrew Luck, #2 RG3, #8, Ryan Tannehill, #22 Brandon Weedon, #57 Brock Osweiler, #75, Russell Wilson, #88 Nick Foles, #102 Kirk Cousins

2013, #16 EJ Manuel, #39 Geno Smith, #73 Mike Glennon, #98 Matt Barkley, #110 Ryan Nassib 

2014, #3 Blake Bortles, #22 Johnny Manziel, #32 Teddy Bridgewater, #36 Derek Carr, #62 Jimmy Garroppolo, #135 Tom Savage, #163 Aaron Murry, #164 AJ McCarron

2015, #1 Jamis Winston, #2 Marcus Mariota, #75 Garrett Grayson, #103 Bryce Petty, #147 Brett Hundley

2016, #1 Jerod Goff, #2 Carson Wentz, #26 Paxton Lynch, #51 Christian Hackenberg, #91 Jacoby Brissett, #93 Cody Kessler, #100 Connor Cook, # 135 Dak Prescott, #139 Cardale Jones. #162 Kevin Hogan.

2017, #2 Mitch Turbisky, #10 Patrick Mahomes, #12 Deshaun Watson, #52 Deshone Kizer, #87 Davis Webb, #104 CJ Beathard.

 

14 or so out of 50+ somethings.  Bradford might have been a franchise QB at some point in his career.

10 seasons, 160 games and he is only played in 80 with a career record of 34-45-1 and he has made over 110 Million in doing so.

 

Anyway, the point here is to look at 2012-2014 and if you have scouts that know what they are doing you can find quality QBs later than just the top five picks.

Edited March 30, 2018 by Nihilarian

[Thurman#1]

On 3/30/2018 at 8:37 PM, formerlyofCtown said:

Fortunately I think we have a better coach even though our roster isn't as good I think the players do have better character.  No whiners just football players.

 

 

I'm glad we can find some real common ground. 

 

McD and Beane really do seem smart, directed and extremely hard-working. I'm more hopeful than I've been in a very long time about the long-term prospects of this team. Agreed about the character of our players too. The one thing that didn't happen last year is that we didn't beat ourselves. And we have done that again and again and again for the last fifteen years. Last year the teams that beat us did it because they were just better teams. 

 

 

On 3/31/2018 at 3:39 AM, Nihilarian said:

What a lot of Bills fans that are in this trade up frenzy don't get is there are some later round QB's that teams like the Patriots, Steelers are interested in to develop.

 

The odds are that a 1st round QB making it in the NFL is at 38% so that means out of five guys only two probably make it...which two? Darnold, Rosen? Mayfield, Allen?

 

I'll be honest here are as I recall so much hype over RG3 and others. Now, look at them. I left off some later round picks.

 

2010, #1 Sam Bradford, #25 Tim Tebow, #78 Jimmy Clausen, #85 Colt McCoy

2011, #1 Cam Newton, #8 Jake Locker, #12 Christian Ponder, #35 Andy Dalton, #36 Colin Kaepernick, #74 Ryan Mallett

2012, #1 Andrew Luck, #2 RG3, #8, Ryan Tannehill, #22 Brandon Weedon, #57 Brock Osweiler, #75, Russell Wilson, #88 Nick Foles, #102 Kirk Cousins

2013, #16 EJ Manuel, #39 Geno Smith, #73 Mike Glennon, #98 Matt Barkley, #110 Ryan Nassib 

2014, #3 Blake Bortles, #22 Johnny Manziel, #32 Teddy Bridgewater, #36 Derek Carr, #62 Jimmy Garroppolo, #135 Tom Savage, #163 Aaron Murry, #164 AJ McCarron

2015, #1 Jamis Winston, #2 Marcus Mariota, #75 Garrett Grayson, #103 Bryce Petty, #147 Brett Hundley

2016, #1 Jerod Goff, #2 Carson Wentz, #26 Paxton Lynch, #51 Christian Hackenberg, #91 Jacoby Brissett, #93 Cody Kessler, #100 Connor Cook, # 135 Dak Prescott, #139 Cardale Jones. #162 Kevin Hogan.

2017, #2 Mitch Turbisky, #10 Patrick Mahomes, #12 Deshaun Watson, #52 Deshone Kizer, #87 Davis Webb, #104 CJ Beathard.

 

14 or so out of 50+ somethings.  Bradford might have been a franchise QB at some point in his career.

10 seasons, 160 games and he is only played in 80 with a career record of 34-45-1 and he has made over 110 Million in doing so.

 

Anyway, the point here is to look at 2012-2014 and if you have scouts that know what they are doing you can find quality QBs later than just the top five picks.

 

 

The odds on first-round guys are lowish. Top five guys are over 50%, though.

 

And this is a very untypical year. Assuming that this year will be typical is likely underestimation. This is a very good year for QBs. The odds are this year will come in at a higher than usual level.

 

You're right that the Pats and Steelers may be looking for guys to develop (assuming the Steelers don't trade up for someone early). But look at their record when they do that. Garoppolo is the one people are thinking of, very reasonably, but look at the rest, guys like Mallett and Charlie Batch and Cassel and ... you could go on and on. And that's with guys put in a terrific stable programs and given the best coaching in the league and a ton of time to develop. 

 

Yeah, you can find later guys. But the odds are much much lower, even for teams with excellent scouts and coaches.

[Pete]

[billsredneck1]

On 3/30/2018 at 1:36 PM, Nanker said:

We could get to #8 in trades with Chicago:

 

Bears get:

Bills #12 - 1,200 points

Bills # 56 - 340 points (24th Pick in 2nd Round)

Bills # 65 - 265 points (1st Pick in 3rd Round)

Bills # 96 - 116 points

Total 1,921 points

 

Bills get:

Bears #8 - 1,400 points

Bears # 39 - 510 points

Total 1,910 points

 

We'd have seven picks: #8, 22, 39, 53, 121, 166, and 187 

 

And then from #8, Bean could trade up to #4 for a 2019 2nd or 3rd rounder or to #2 for 2019's First rounder.

so this would leave us still having 2 seconds and a third?.....hmmmm

 

i still think there's already a plan in place for no. 4  if who they want(baker) falls to 4 , we give the browns 12, their 65 back and next yrs. 1st.

 

 

Edited April 1, 2018 by billsredneck1

[maryland-bills-fan]

Aha.   I've just done a couple of post on similar topics (early April). Looks like this ground has already been plowed over. 

[mead107]

Don’t waste picks on a qb