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If you get "stuck" with the 4th or 5th best QB...


mjd1001

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What are the odds of the first QB taken in a draft being better than the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or 5th?  It depends on a lot, how 'deep' is the draft...is there a big difference in an given year between the best QB and the 5th best...and other things.  But if you look back at every NFL draft from the year 2000 until last year, what are the odds that each QB taken in a given slot turn into a good QB or a Star?

 

1st QB taken in the draft: 5 Stars, 9 good starters, 4 busts or journeyman

 

2nd QB taken:  3 starts, 2 good starters, 13 busts or journeyman

 

3rd QB taken:  2 stars, 3 good starters, 13 busts or journeyman

 

4th QB taken:  1 Star, 0 good starters, 17 busts or journeyman

 

5th QB taken:  .5 star, 3.5 good starter, 14 busts or journeyman

 

 

Some might argue with my exact classification, but I was considering a 'star' as a QB that has the ability to carry a team and make multiple pro bowls.  Maybe not a hall of famer, but a franchise guy.  Of the recent guys, I classified someone like Deshaun Watson as a star. A 'good starter' would be someone like Andy Dalton.

 

Now, in the above list, all of the QB's taken (especially the 3rd, 4th, or 5th ones) were not First rounders...so I decided to go back and just look at all the 1st round QBs taken after pick #5 and see how they did...

 

 

1st round QBs taken in the top 5: 6 Stars (28.5%), 9 good starters (43%), 6 busts or journeyman (28.5%).  It was hard classifying the QBs taken in the last 2-3 drafts, some could go in either the star or 'good starter" category. 

 

1st round QBs taken after pick #5:  3 Stars(11.5%), 6 good starters(23%), 17 Busts or journeyman(65.5%)

 

Every Draft is different. It is very hard to compare one draft to the other for that reason...but one thing is for sure...is that drafts often do NOT turn out how we think they will before the draft occurs, so I thought looking at the numbers might give some perspective.

 

(BTW, my numbers may be off by 1 or 2, as I did most of the counting in my head..but they are close)

Edited by mjd1001
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This should be the guide. Jimbo was the 3rd QB (#14) off the board. Marino 6th (#27) If you identify your guy get him, but don't trade the farm for Eason, Blackledge or Ken O'Brien. Chances are 3 of the 5 or 6 to go this year in round one will not be franchise quarterbacks. Be patient, be sure. I'd love to have a Jimbo repeat for the next 10 years.

Screen Shot 2018-03-17 at 11.57.16 AM.png

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5 minutes ago, BillsRdue said:

This should be the guide. Jimbo was the 3rd QB (#14) off the board. Marino 6th (#27) If you identify your guy get him, but don't trade the farm for Eason, Blackledge or Ken O'Brien. Chances are 3 of the 5 or 6 to go this year in round one will not be franchise quarterbacks. Be patient, be sure. I'd love to have a Jimbo repeat for the next 10 years.

Screen Shot 2018-03-17 at 11.57.16 AM.png

 

When you have to use a draft from 1983 to make us feel better - does any other argument in any other field think its best to cite something from 3 decades ago?

 

You want me to pull up the '04 draft? That one was fun. 

Edited by Elite Poster
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Not that I want us to take the 4th or 5th best pick, but the issue with this idea (and the issue with everyone freaking out about the Jets trade) is that we have the most ammunition in the draft this year and it's not even close (aside from the browns, or course). I can all but guarantee that the Colts gave us a call before taking that deal. We own the draft, and the fact that the jet's just overpaid for number 3 doesn't bother me because it means we didn't want to. McBeane are going to do what they feel is their best move (without compromise, as we have seen) and they have the freedom to do so. The question we will be asking in two years is if their decision was wise/right. 

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27 minutes ago, baskingridgebillsfan said:

a week a go we were thinking Lamar Jackson at 21 , now we are Allen or Mayfield at 12.  there is still 6 weeks to the draft.  The number 2 picks is still in play.   Lets see what happens 

 

Ugh 6 more weeks???? ?

Edited by Over 29 years of fanhood
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30 minutes ago, BillsRdue said:

This should be the guide. Jimbo was the 3rd QB (#14) off the board. Marino 6th (#27) If you identify your guy get him, but don't trade the farm for Eason, Blackledge or Ken O'Brien. Chances are 3 of the 5 or 6 to go this year in round one will not be franchise quarterbacks. Be patient, be sure. I'd love to have a Jimbo repeat for the next 10 years.

Screen Shot 2018-03-17 at 11.57.16 AM.png

I don't see it with a lot of these "Top" guys.  Darnold, with a lot of work, and I mean a lot, he could be a Matt Stafford.  Good enough to get a 35 mill a year contract but not good enough to carry the team.  Allen, bust.  Mayfield, could be Andy Dalton.  Do we really ant Andy Dalton on this team?

 

Gotta trade to #1

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1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

What are the odds of the first QB taken in a draft being better than the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or 5th?  It depends on a lot, how 'deep' is the draft...is there a big difference in an given year between the best QB and the 5th best...and other things.  But if you look back at every NFL draft from the year 2000 until last year, what are the odds that each QB taken in a given slot turn into a good QB or a Star?

 

1st QB taken in the draft: 5 Stars, 9 good starters, 4 busts or journeyman

 

2nd QB taken:  3 starts, 2 good starters, 13 busts or journeyman

 

3rd QB taken:  2 stars, 3 good starters, 13 busts or journeyman

 

4th QB taken:  1 Star, 0 good starters, 17 busts or journeyman

 

5th QB taken:  .5 star, 3.5 good starter, 14 busts or journeyman

 

 

Some might argue with my exact classification, but I was considering a 'star' as a QB that has the ability to carry a team and make multiple pro bowls.  Maybe not a hall of famer, but a franchise guy.  Of the recent guys, I classified someone like Deshaun Watson as a star. A 'good starter' would be someone like Andy Dalton.

 

Now, in the above list, all of the QB's taken (especially the 3rd, 4th, or 5th ones) were not First rounders...so I decided to go back and just look at all the 1st round QBs taken after pick #5 and see how they did...

 

 

1st round QBs taken in the top 5: 6 Stars (28.5%), 9 good starters (43%), 6 busts or journeyman (28.5%).  It was hard classifying the QBs taken in the last 2-3 drafts, some could go in either the star or 'good starter" category. 

 

1st round QBs taken after pick #5:  3 Stars(11.5%), 6 good starters(23%), 17 Busts or journeyman(65.5%)

 

Every Draft is different. It is very hard to compare one draft to the other for that reason...but one thing is for sure...is that drafts often do NOT turn out how we think they will before the draft occurs, so I thought looking at the numbers might give some perspective.

 

(BTW, my numbers may be off by 1 or 2, as I did most of the counting in my head..but they are close)

1983. Marino was 28th pick after Eason and Blackledge

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54 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

When you have to use a draft from 1983 to make us feel better - does any other argument in any other field think its best to cite something from 3 decades ago?

 

You want me to pull up the '04 draft? That one was fun. 


This is about how when you have 5 or 6 QB's slated to be round one picks (it hasn't happened since '83) that the best ones don't fall in the order taken. The one picked 6th isn't necessarily the 6th best QB as Marino proved. And that hasn't changed since '83. I was responding to the post about getting the 4th or 5th pick of QB's doesn't mean he can't be the franchise. This has been proven time and time again.

Edited by BillsRdue
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18 minutes ago, BillsRdue said:


This is about how when you have 5 or 6 QB's slated to be round one picks (it hasn't happened since '83) that the best ones don't fall in the order taken. The one picked 6th isn't necessarily the 6th best QB as Marino proved. And that hasn't changed since '83. I was responding to the post about getting the 4th or 5th pick of QB's doesn't mean he can't be the franchise. This has been proven time and time again.

 

Then show me dude. In the last 17 years, this is not the case. Yes there are a few guys who came out of the second and even third, but it's overwhelmingly the top prospects.

 

Once again, would you bet $50 on 00 green when you can bet $100 on black? The answer is no.

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The Bills may trade up but from this point I think they wait until draft day and see if the QB they want is still there maybe before Indy picks at number 6. I would think Indy would have no problem moving down to 12 with another extra pick. I personally think Darnold and Allen are the bust and they may be the top QB's taken. Rosen, Mayfield and Jackson are the best chances for success and one or two may still be there. I like Lauletta in the later rounds.  I might just stay put at 12 and keep all of the picks. 

Edited by VADC Bills
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