DefenseWins Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 and give up something like #21 #22 and 2019 1st and 2nd and Glenn.... And whoever it is they draft, turns into the next Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger... Will you naysayers out there admit you were wrong about the trade up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, DefenseWins said: and give up something like #21 #22 and 2019 1st and 2nd and Glenn.... And whoever it is they draft, turns into the next Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger... Will you naysayers out there admit you were wrong about the trade up? Gonna take more than that I think. Might have to toss a 2018 2nd and then I think you can get to two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefenseWins Posted March 4, 2018 Author Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: Gonna take more than that I think. Might have to toss a 2018 2nd and then I think you can get to two. OK toss in the 2018 2nd rd pick as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Then that's what the Bills do. I can't speak for anyone else, but most of this stuff is guessing what we THINK the Bills might / might not do and why. I'm sure most every Bills fan would say heck let's give whatever and get one of the top QBs. That's just not reality though. The fans aren't making that call. I think the Bills might move up, but their offer just may be trumped by teams already ahead of them. It's not totally in the control of the Bills FO either. So many variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, DefenseWins said: OK toss in the 2018 2nd rd pick as well... I will be ecstatic that we have finally gotten a front Office that Identified their QB and WENT and got him. Instead of sitting waiting and missing out Edited March 4, 2018 by MAJBobby 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefenseWins Posted March 4, 2018 Author Share Posted March 4, 2018 The question is - What kind of success does the kid QB need to have for the naysayers to change their minds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, DefenseWins said: and give up something like #21 #22 and 2019 1st and 2nd and Glenn.... And whoever it is they draft, turns into the next Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger... Will you naysayers out there admit you were wrong about the trade up? Anyone can play "if, this, then that." "If I roll a hard 8, putting my life savings on the craps table is a good plan" The real skill is making the best possible +EV decisions n ow, and not play results-oriented thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, DefenseWins said: The question is - What kind of success does the kid QB need to have for the naysayers to change their minds? For the package of picks in this hypothetical : multiple playoff appearances, a couple division titles, AFC championship game appearance. Anything less and it's a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefenseWins Posted March 4, 2018 Author Share Posted March 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: For the package of picks in this hypothetical : multiple playoff appearances, a couple division titles, AFC championship game appearance. Anything less and it's a fail. Remember I said in the beginning that he turns out to be a Brees or Roethlisberger type... They have both had those kind of careers I believe... So does he have to go to a Superbowl and win it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PIZ Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elltrain22 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Get the franchise QB. No matter what. Sell the farm!! No more effing around 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 28 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: Gonna take more than that I think. Might have to toss a 2018 2nd and then I think you can get to two. ...has the moving up topic NOT been covered in 36,548 other threads?.........."new thread starter bonus" should be reduced from the current $500 to $1.37 ASAP..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: ...has the moving up topic NOT been covered in 36,548 other threads?.........."new thread starter bonus" should be reduced from the current $500 to $1.37 ASAP..... Didnt make the thread did I??? Just posted in it just like you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: Didnt make the thread did I??? Just posted in it just like you look I am NOT here to insult, impugn or embarrass ANY TBD member......ain't my style......but I thought the SDS mantra was "search before you start a thread" to keep the MB devoid of repetitious clutter......so how many times has the "moving up" idea fostered how many repetitious threads?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: look I am NOT here to insult, impugn or embarrass ANY TBD member......ain't my style......but I thought the SDS mantra was "search before you start a thread" to keep the MB devoid of repetitious clutter......so how many times has the "moving up" idea fostered how many repetitious threads?.... It has enough. But again I didnt start it. Jist saw the package was light so Let the OP know it would take more. iMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PIZ Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: look I am NOT here to insult, impugn or embarrass ANY TBD member......ain't my style......but I thought the SDS mantra was "search before you start a thread" to keep the MB devoid of repetitious clutter......so how many times has the "moving up" idea fostered how many repetitious threads?.... It is and I've been guilty of it too. I don't see what the big deal is though. Fans are excited. This is going to be one hell of a draft and the excitement is building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: It has enough. But again I didnt start it. Jist saw the package was light so Let the OP know it would take more. iMHO ...we good friend...know you did not start be merely was responding.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 47 minutes ago, DefenseWins said: and give up something like #21 #22 and 2019 1st and 2nd and Glenn.... And whoever it is they draft, turns into the next Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger... Will you naysayers out there admit you were wrong about the trade up? Yes. Will you agree that if it results in RG3's career and sets the team back 4 years you we're wrong. It's all about risk, and we on a "message board" have to wait for the person whose career is on the line to decide! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyC81 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 54 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: For the package of picks in this hypothetical : multiple playoff appearances, a couple division titles, AFC championship game appearance. Anything less and it's a fail. Yes, that sounds about right. That's like the career of Philip Rivers. NFL football is a team game so it's not his fault his Chargers have been to only one AFC Championship game and no Super Bowls but he's taken them to the playoffs 5 times and has contended in most of the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zonabb Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Here's the way I think it should be viewed. It is not about moving up and grabbing a QB this year for the sake of grabbing a QB this year. The key is whether or not this new front office can effectively evaluate QBs or whether they're like the prior regimes willing to overdraft bad supply based on kinked demand. I think we have two excellent examples of the pressure of getting a QB in the 17 year drought... Losman and Manual. Both were desperation moves to "try" and get a QB and both players had major shortcomings. Losman at the time was ID'd as clearly outside of the top QB prospects and wasn't even invited to the draft IIRC. Yet the Bills moved into the first and grabbed him. The Manual draft is the classic case of drafting one high to get one. Major risk, no reward. So the key to is being able to properly evaluate QBs rather than just roll the dice, trade draft capital, and keep your fingers crossed that a QB can overcome a litany of shortcoming. Oh, and give me the Wonderlic scores. A sub-22 is a dealbreaker. I've been on this for years and for you analytics types, look up the playoffs and Super Bowl records of sub-22 QBs. Three keys findings after diving into reported scores (reported only) this is simple. 1. Sub-22 QBs can get you to the playoffs. 2. But sub-22 QBs have won 1 SB except I believe Bradshaw who I also believe is dyslexic or has some other reading issue. 3. Over-22 QBs are no guarantee of a SB or even playoffs. The anti-intelligence, "football is a physical game" neanderthal thinkers here will poo-poo the Wonderlic as not measuring anything. It has its flaws and it likely useless for many positions where absolutely physical skills and vision matter most (RB, WR, TE). But a 12 minute, 50-question exam that basically asks question you know does measure, in some way, the cognitive ability and rapid recall necessary for a QB. So putting this all together, if the Super Bowl is what you are after, the probability of winning one with that QB is basically zero. If I am drafting, I throw out the sub-22s from my draft board, every time. Brady - 33 Eli - 39 Peyton - 28 Big Ben - 25 Aikman - 29 Young - 33 Elway - 29 Wilson - 28 Those were not cherry picked, just randomly off the top of my head in five seconds. Losman reportedly had a very low score, then a very high one on his second attempt after some coaching from agents who made BS excuses to teams and the Bills bought it (See book Illegal Procedure) Tyrod 15 Manual 28 Edwards 31 Fitz - 48 Kelly - 15 (just for kicks). Would everyone sign up for 4 more SB losses? Probably. I think Wonderlic matters more now in a more complex, pass oriented game. If the Super Bowl is the goal and the Bills had thrown out the sub-22s, we'd have avoided the Losman error and the Tyrod error (didn't draft but could have used the metric anyway), and thereby reducing their error rate by 50%. So to me, does Beane and his staff have the ability to evaluate QBs compared to the entire population of QBs in history or do they just compare them to their others in their draft class when they are set on drafting one, come hell or high water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts