IF we don’t get a FA QB, and can’t trade up....

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

10 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

First off let me say Virgil that this is a good thread to start.  Too many, go get "their guy" (which may not even be an option for OBD) opinions.

Anything can happen at draft time.  Like you say it will start with FA.  Let's forget about Cousins signing with the Bills and ask where does he sign.

Most hoping (myself included) he signs with the Broncos or Jets.  Of course this would be great because it takes another team out of the QB draft.  But what if he signs with

Minnesota and Foles stays with Philly.

 

The next question would be, how many teams ahead of us in the draft believe one of the "leftover"  FA QB's is "their guy" that they want to role with instead of a rookie?

If that answer is zero, then OBD has some real worries.  Keenum, Bradford, Bridgewater and AJ McCarron are all risky starter moves.

 

I can't comment on non QB drafts yet because until FA is over with I can't tell what our position of need vs remaining draft option players would be available.

It is still (until then) all about the QB.

 

 

I'm reading about a lot of teams that have quality QB's today interested in QB's in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

There are many articles about New England, Pittsburg, Miami, New Orleans, Cincinnati all looking for 2nd tier guys.

OBD has to keep this in mind.

 

I think our new front office is smart and looking to work through all these issue, but we need some good luck too.

 

Fair and Evidence is still there that qb evaluation has s significant luck component.  I mean LA may be finally seeing something from Goff with enough weaponry, but In a redo of the draft I’m not convinced that’s not their pick knowing what we do now. 

Edited February 27, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, JohnC said:

If the Bills don't trade up and they want to get a qb my guess is that they would take Rudolph. He just seems to fit the McBeane profile for a player. Plenty of college experience and a qb who is more of a pocket passer. He is certainly not as exciting of a prospect like some of the other qb prospects. I still believe that the organization wants to move up for their preferred qb (Mayfield, Darnold or Rosen) or whoever is available but if it doesn't work out then I believe they have a fallback position. 

 

Yeah I think the same too...my preference would be Lamar over Mason though, but I could see how they may choose Mason in that case.  Of course, like you, my real preference is the trade up and I really want Baker but I would also be stoked about any of the others too. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

10 hours ago, JohnC said:

If the Bills don't trade up and they want to get a qb my guess is that they would take Rudolph. He just seems to fit the McBeane profile for a player. Plenty of college experience and a qb who is more of a pocket passer. He is certainly not as exciting of a prospect like some of the other qb prospects. I still believe that the organization wants to move up for their preferred qb (Mayfield, Darnold or Rosen) or whoever is available but if it doesn't work out then I believe they have a fallback position. 

Mason Rudolph

STRENGTHS

 Great size and stands tall in the pocket giving him his true height as a passer. Does a good job of letting routes develop and wide receivers clear traffic. Slides in pocket for clean launch points and is rarely a static target for rushers. Keeps eyes trained downfield when sliding around pocket. Got rid of the ball quicker and cut his sacks this year. Willing to throw in front of safeties and attack over top of linebackers in intermediate portion of field. Has steadily improved each season and showed full command of the offense this year. Saw 10 percent of his dropbacks turn into 25-plus yard completions. Puts air under his deep throws and gives receivers a chance to make plays. Reads safeties and moves to his progressions accordingly. Ran zone reads around endzone and finished with 17 rushing touchdowns during career. Willing to drop his head and go get what he needs.

WEAKNESSES

 Over-strides at times. Rarely drives lower body through the throw causing ball to sail and float. May not generate enough velocity to beat ball-hawking corners who strangle passing windows. Field-side outs will be a challenge. Needs throws to stay on schedule. Needs to throw with better timing and placement on comeback and outs. Defaults to off-platform throws when he has time to step and deliver. Ball placement and decision making can run askew when forced to scramble from pocket. Ball will come out wobbly at times. Inexperienced as rollout passer. Benefitted from ball-winning targets downfield. Wasn't asked to get through many progressions in the offense. Has had ball security issues as a starter.

DRAFT PROJECTION

 Rounds 2-3

Would the  22 be considered an early pick for a 2nd or 3rd rounder? 

 

Josh Rosen 

STRENGTHS

 Tennis prodigy with impeccable footwork and delivery balance. Plays with excellent coordination between eyes and feet. Gets head around quickly on play-fakes. Has experience under center. Anchors in pocket and doesn't creep around needlessly. Trusts his protection and doesn't take eyes of targets when pressure mounts from the edge. Climbs pocket when appropriate. Willing to stand and deliver in face of pressure. Completed 63 percent of his passes when blitzed in 2017. Accuracy totals negatively impacted by 31 receiver drops this year. Holds his water in pocket. Mechanics are terrific. Rarely over-strides and throws with consistently bent front knee. Throwing motion and follow-through are effortless. Extremely confident and intelligent. Throws receivers open. Might be best back shoulder thrower in the game. Shows ability to speed up operation time for move to next level. Very good usage of shoulder fakes and hitches to move defenders or buy additional time for receivers to uncover. Touch passer who can throw feathers when needed.

WEAKNESSES

 Durability is a concern. Carries slight build and has had injury issues dating back to high school. Carries ball low in pocket with slight upward pre-throw hitch. Too casual in pocket set-up. Decision making and post-snap reads are inconsistent. Refuses easy throws at times. Arm talent and strength are below average. May need to make greater effort to drive field and seam throws. Poor career deep ball completion rate. Excess air under ball allows challenges. Lacks gun to challenge safeties with rip throws over the top. Needs better anticipation. Poor mobility. Struggles to elude early pressure. Completed just 42.4 percent of his throws when forced to move. Too much hero ball. Extends plays and takes unnecessary chances rather than throwing it away. Scouts question his passion for football and whether he will be a willing student.

DRAFT PROJECTION

 Round 1

Edited February 27, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Mason Rudolph

STRENGTHS

 Great size and stands tall in the pocket giving him his true height as a passer. Does a good job of letting routes develop and wide receivers clear traffic. Slides in pocket for clean launch points and is rarely a static target for rushers. Keeps eyes trained downfield when sliding around pocket. Got rid of the ball quicker and cut his sacks this year. Willing to throw in front of safeties and attack over top of linebackers in intermediate portion of field. Has steadily improved each season and showed full command of the offense this year. Saw 10 percent of his dropbacks turn into 25-plus yard completions. Puts air under his deep throws and gives receivers a chance to make plays. Reads safeties and moves to his progressions accordingly. Ran zone reads around endzone and finished with 17 rushing touchdowns during career. Willing to drop his head and go get what he needs.

WEAKNESSES

 Over-strides at times. Rarely drives lower body through the throw causing ball to sail and float. May not generate enough velocity to beat ball-hawking corners who strangle passing windows. Field-side outs will be a challenge. Needs throws to stay on schedule. Needs to throw with better timing and placement on comeback and outs. Defaults to off-platform throws when he has time to step and deliver. Ball placement and decision making can run askew when forced to scramble from pocket. Ball will come out wobbly at times. Inexperienced as rollout passer. Benefitted from ball-winning targets downfield. Wasn't asked to get through many progressions in the offense. Has had ball security issues as a starter.

DRAFT PROJECTION

 Rounds 2-3

Would the  22 be considered an early pick for a 2nd or 3rd rounder? 

 

Josh Rosen 

STRENGTHS

 Tennis prodigy with impeccable footwork and delivery balance. Plays with excellent coordination between eyes and feet. Gets head around quickly on play-fakes. Has experience under center. Anchors in pocket and doesn't creep around needlessly. Trusts his protection and doesn't take eyes of targets when pressure mounts from the edge. Climbs pocket when appropriate. Willing to stand and deliver in face of pressure. Completed 63 percent of his passes when blitzed in 2017. Accuracy totals negatively impacted by 31 receiver drops this year. Holds his water in pocket. Mechanics are terrific. Rarely over-strides and throws with consistently bent front knee. Throwing motion and follow-through are effortless. Extremely confident and intelligent. Throws receivers open. Might be best back shoulder thrower in the game. Shows ability to speed up operation time for move to next level. Very good usage of shoulder fakes and hitches to move defenders or buy additional time for receivers to uncover. Touch passer who can throw feathers when needed.

WEAKNESSES

 Durability is a concern. Carries slight build and has had injury issues dating back to high school. Carries ball low in pocket with slight upward pre-throw hitch. Too casual in pocket set-up. Decision making and post-snap reads are inconsistent. Refuses easy throws at times. Arm talent and strength are below average. May need to make greater effort to drive field and seam throws. Poor career deep ball completion rate. Excess air under ball allows challenges. Lacks gun to challenge safeties with rip throws over the top. Needs better anticipation. Poor mobility. Struggles to elude early pressure. Completed just 42.4 percent of his throws when forced to move. Too much hero ball. Extends plays and takes unnecessary chances rather than throwing it away. Scouts question his passion for football and whether he will be a willing student.

DRAFT PROJECTION

 Round 1

If a qb is rated as a second round pick and you wanted him it would be a  mistake to wait for the second round pick. The Bills have two lower first round picks in their arsenal. If the Bills favor a qb such as Jackson or Rudolph it would be foolish to wait until the second round. I'm not against drafting players where they are slated. However, for the qb position it is better to error drafting too early rather than lose out because you are too late. 

 

Josh Rosen is a sterling prospect. But as your evaluation indicates durability is a big concern. 

[ColoradoBills]

21 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  I think that most of the "get your guy" or "get any of the most talked about QB's" advocates are living in a fantasy world.  They expect a given QB prospect that has a ceiling of 4,000-4,500 yards, 30 TD's, 10 INT's and down the line will be ignored by virtually every other team in terms of picking when their slot comes up such as with Cleveland, NYG, Jets, or Broncos or that somebody will orchestrate their own trade up such as with Miami, Cincy, or Arizona.   If Rosen, Darnold, etc. are truly high end prospects I think the chances of them slipping away from the top slotted teams or falling out of the top ten are minimal.   

 

Well said and I agree.

One thing I feel is not discussed enough is the fact that Beane and McDermott have to have a FA and Draft QB sheet.

Everyone talks about getting one of the 4-5 top tier guys in the draft.  What if OBD has only 3 picked out as "possible" fits.

Those 3 have to be rated in terms of absolute top worth of pick # or trade value to go get them.

2 of those could go in the first 2 picks and there is a chance that OBD finds itself not even in the running.

 

Same with FA QB's.  Maybe Beane (I'm just speculating) does not want to even think about Bradford because of his injury history.

Who knows what they think about the rest.

 

I really hope it works out and we get one but.................Beane has to be realistic as to the risks!

 

18 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

I think 4 QB’s before 21 is more likely than you think.  Rosen, Darnold, Allen, and Mayfield are considered to be tier 1 of the class. The rest are players that some here like and could also pan out, but they are tier 2. 

 

The Jets, Browns, Cardinals, Broncos all want QB’s. Minnesota, Giants, and Dolphins are possibilities too. Even with Cousins going to one of those 4 teams, it’s likely that the 4 Tier 1 guys will be gone by 21. Even if that’s someone trading ahead of us at 20 to stop us. 

 

I think it’s very possible that we can’t beat the offers of others teams to trade up or they will want to stay for their guy. 

 

Definitely a possibility.

What could be problematic is the tier 2 guys.  Like I said if OBD isn't careful you start to bring in other teams starting in the 2nd round.

 

Beane is going to earn his money this year..............and I'm sure have a lot of restless nights.

[John from Riverside]

5 hours ago, JohnC said:

If a qb is rated as a second round pick and you wanted him it would be a  mistake to wait for the second round pick. The Bills have two lower first round picks in their arsenal. If the Bills favor a qb such as Jackson or Rudolph it would be foolish to wait until the second round. I'm not against drafting players where they are slated. However, for the qb position it is better to error drafting too early rather than lose out because you are too late. 

 

Josh Rosen is a sterling prospect. But as your evaluation indicates durability is a big concern. 

It might however make sense to attempt to trade back a little bit with one of the first round picks and attempt to pick up a additional pick...while not leaving the 1st round with it.

[ColoradoBills]

15 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Fair and Evidence is still there that qb evaluation has s significant luck component.  I mean LA may be finally seeing something from Goff with enough weaponry, but In a redo of the draft I’m not convinced that’s not their pick knowing what we do now. 

 

When you got a guy like Luck who is a clear #1 overall by everyone, well that's one thing.

It seems to me that this years group can have some good to great QBs but also some potential busts.

This point makes your point all the more relevant.

 

On our own TSW board there seems to be a lot huge discrepancies in a consensus.

[Norcalbillsfan]

I would love to see some speed at LB, and a run stuffer up front.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

8 hours ago, JohnC said:

If a qb is rated as a second round pick and you wanted him it would be a  mistake to wait for the second round pick. The Bills have two lower first round picks in their arsenal. If the Bills favor a qb such as Jackson or Rudolph it would be foolish to wait until the second round. I'm not against drafting players where they are slated. However, for the qb position it is better to error drafting too early rather than lose out because you are too late. 

 

Josh Rosen is a sterling prospect. But as your evaluation indicates durability is a big concern. 

To be fair it was NFL.com’s 

draft report.  

 

Interesting read on the durability as many cite it as a reason to not do after some fa’s and to dump current Bills players.  

Agree if he’s a 2 and they get him at 1-22 it’s not an overreach.  

 

 

 

I’m sure some in the media would say it was a reach.  

[ALF]

This would be the draft to try and trade up with picks , maybe a player, even if it's McCoy.

 

Look back at the 2013 draft for QBs   

 

EJ Manuel  at 16 ,  Geno Smith  at 39  , Mike Glennon  at  73 , Matt Barkley  at  98

 

If the Bills can't trade up take a QB at 21 and maybe at 53  , keep Taylor as the bridge. Peterman to PS unless he shows major progress in preseason and can outplay QB at 53

 

My target for a longer term bridge was Alex Smith , to give a drafted QB time to develop or draft another.  So much for that plan.

 

After looking further at the available  FA  QBs , maybe Keenum , doubt Foles will be traded till Wentz is 100%.

 

Keep Taylor or a cheaper bridge till Foles is ready to be traded could be a option.

Edited February 28, 2018 by ALF