Ball Placement Metrics per BlueChipScouting.com

[DCOrange]

One of the guys I follow on Twitter for breakdowns of draft prospects retweeted a podcast from the guy that runs BlueChipScouting.com and basically, he watched a ton of film of most of the QB prospects and charted their passes for ball placement rather than completion percentage and I threw together a spreadsheet that summarizes the findings.

 

Here's a link to his findings for the top 5 QB prospects. He mentions in his podcast that he plans on publishing the full set for the second tier guys later this week (as you'll see in my chart, there's a lot of holes currently for the Tier 2 guys, but I included as much as I could).

https://www.bluechipscouting.com/single-post/2018/02/19/Quarterback-Ball-Placement

 

I split the chart up based on how many yards the pass traveled, so "20+" = 20+ yards down the field, "10-20" = 10-20 yards down the field, etc. I don't think the 4th section of the table is particularly helpful, but I included it anyways; I think splitting it up by distance and direction is much more helpful in terms of drawing conclusions.

 

Edit: Some of the main conclusions that stood out to me:

• Mason Rudolph's deep ball accuracy isn't nearly as good as his completion percentage would indicate. The author mentions it on his podcast, but basically, a ton of his deep balls forced his WR to come back to the ball rather than leading him, but he also noted that Rudolph was extremely impressive in the intermediate game.
• It's kind of a theme at this point, but once again, Lamar Jackson looks like a comparable passer to most of the draft class. He isn't in Baker Mayfield's league, but he's not far off from guys like Darnold and Rosen, and he's much more accurate than Allen.
• Allen's intermediate and deep ball accuracy are still below average, but he's at least comparable to some of the other guys. His short passing accuracy is pretty insane though.
• Rosen isn't particularly impressive outside of the intermediate passing (which is arguably the most important zone) where he's the best.
• I'm really curious to get the full numbers on White, Litton, and Ferguson. What we currently have for Ferguson is surprisingly impressive.

 

Edited February 21, 2018 by DCOrange

[RyanC883]

Thanks.   More info like this is always appreciated.  Glad to see that L. Jackson is a comparable passer, and that's with his "bad footwork" which can be improved.  

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Draft Lamar Jackson. 

[Wsam4031]

Thanks good read!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

58 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

One of the guys I follow on Twitter for breakdowns of draft prospects retweeted a podcast from the guy that runs BlueChipScouting.com and basically, he watched a ton of film of most of the QB prospects and charted their passes for ball placement rather than completion percentage and I threw together a spreadsheet that summarizes the findings.

 

Here's a link to his findings for the top 5 QB prospects. He mentions in his podcast that he plans on publishing the full set for the second tier guys later this week (as you'll see in my chart, there's a lot of holes currently for the Tier 2 guys, but I included as much as I could).

https://www.bluechipscouting.com/single-post/2018/02/19/Quarterback-Ball-Placement

 

I split the chart up based on how many yards the pass traveled, so "20+" = 20+ yards down the field, "10-20" = 10-20 yards down the field, etc. I don't think the 4th section of the table is particularly helpful, but I included it anyways; I think splitting it up by distance and direction is much more helpful in terms of drawing conclusions.

 

Edit: Some of the main conclusions that stood out to me:

• Mason Rudolph's deep ball accuracy isn't nearly as good as his completion percentage would indicate. The author mentions it on his podcast, but basically, a ton of his deep balls forced his WR to come back to the ball rather than leading him, but he also noted that Rudolph was extremely impressive in the intermediate game.
• It's kind of a theme at this point, but once again, Lamar Jackson looks like a comparable passer to most of the draft class. He isn't in Baker Mayfield's league, but he's not far off from guys like Darnold and Rosen, and he's much more accurate than Allen.
• Allen's intermediate and deep ball accuracy are still below average, but he's at least comparable to some of the other guys. His short passing accuracy is pretty insane though.
• Rosen isn't particularly impressive outside of the intermediate passing (which is arguably the most important zone) where he's the best.
• I'm really curious to get the full numbers on White, Litton, and Ferguson. What we currently have for Ferguson is surprisingly impressive.

 

 

This is great stuff, DCOrange. 

 

I noticed that about Rudolph.  Watching him is where I became impressed with his WR.

 

Can you help me understand your color coding?  Also, is this a chart for completions, or for balls placed where they are catchable?

 

Because the same watching that led me to be impressed with Rudolph's WR led me to conclude Rosen's WR would have trouble catching a cold.

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

What is the criteria for ball placement here? I guess I'm just not sure that I really get it. Kind of feels like an exercise where personal biases can come through due to subjectivity.

[HOUSE]

I commend you for your post. great work here

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

What is the criteria for ball placement here? I guess I'm just not sure that I really get it. Kind of feels like an exercise where personal biases can come through due to subjectivity.

 

Fair question. 

 

The other thing I notice is that it's worth going to look at the original article, because the number of throws to a location may change the interpretation of the stats.

 

For example, Darnold had 55 throws behind the LOS, and placed 52 of them.  This number suggests such plays are a staple part of the USC arsenal, and many were planned throws not made under pressure, to a receiver who was expecting the throw.

 

In contrast, Allen made 18 throws behind the LOS, and only placed 10 of them.  This number suggests such plays are not as much of a staple to Wyoming's arsenal, and may have been "dump offs" under pressure, perhaps to a TE or back who was releasing from a block and not necessarily planned receiver.  So perhaps bear in mind that the "placement stats" may reflect how a certain throw is used within a team's offensive scheme.

 

In my mind, "strong arm" would equate to "throws deep a lot", but Allen only threw >20 yds 36 times in the games watched vs 'weaker armed' Rosen 37. 

 

Interesting stuff.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

In my mind, "strong arm" would equate to "throws deep a lot", but Allen only threw >20 yds 36 times in the games watched vs 'weaker armed' Rosen 37. 

 

Interesting stuff.

He also watched 8 of Allen's games and 7 of Rosen's if I'm counting right. So that's 1 more deep attempt in 1 less game.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

He also watched 8 of Allen's games and 7 of Rosen's if I'm counting right. So that's 1 more deep attempt in 1 less game.

 

Good catch.  Right you are.

[Luxy312]

To call these metrics basic is an understatement.  Different teams with different playbooks and different player personnel playing different opposition.  Then add subjective interpretation of what "placement" means and there's nothing comparable about the whole mess.  The figures would be far more interesting if there were a way to adjust them for situational differences.  I'm sure the data analytics guys are trying to do exactly that to get a leg up.

[DCOrange]

45 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is great stuff, DCOrange. 

 

I noticed that about Rudolph.  Watching him is where I became impressed with his WR.

 

Can you help me understand your color coding?  Also, is this a chart for completions, or for balls placed where they are catchable?

 

Because the same watching that led me to be impressed with Rudolph's WR led me to conclude Rosen's WR would have trouble catching a cold.

 

 

The percentages are based on whether or not the throw had proper ball placement, so for example, Rudolph completed roughly 52% of his deep balls I believe, but in BlueChipScouting's review of his film, the author charted it out and said only 38% of his deep balls were thrown with good ball placement. It's important to note that for example, he could have thrown a perfect ball but the corner made a great play on it/the WR dropped it; those would still count as good ball placement in these metrics.

 

The color coding compares the QB's to the rest of their peers in that specific distance/location. So for example, look at the "20+ Left" column. Chase Litton completed it 75% of the time. Compared to the others, he was the highest, so his number is green. Rudolph was a distant last, so he was a redish-orange. Of the QBs included, the average was 50%, so at 50%, Darnold is yellow. Lamar Jackson, being slightly below that average, is a yellow-orangeish tint. It's just a Conditional Formatting setting I used in Excel.

42 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

What is the criteria for ball placement here? I guess I'm just not sure that I really get it. Kind of feels like an exercise where personal biases can come through due to subjectivity.

 

The author goes into detail about what he considers good ball placement in his podcast, which you can listen to here: https://soundcloud.com/user-743485251/episode-10

He talks about it at the very beginning if I remember right. For example, on the short passes, he looks for passes to be in a very specific spot, basically chest level so that the WR can catch it without over-extending, bending down, etc. so that he can pick up YAC since that's what you need in a short pass. The window for proper ball placement gets a little more generous further down the field.

 

It's certainly subjective; there's no purely objective way to look at ball placement, but ball placement is more important than completion percentage. What I'm really curious about is that I know Benjamin Solak from NDT Scouting did a similar project for all of the QBs in the Senior Bowl and is currently planning to publish his findings for the underclassmen (Darnold, Rosen, Lamar, etc.) around mid-March. I'm curious to see how similar their numbers are. But the main point is that I think it's very important to look at ball placement regardless of the fact that it's a subjective thing.

 

23 minutes ago, Luxy312 said:

To call these metrics basic is an understatement.  Different teams with different playbooks and different player personnel playing different opposition.  Then add subjective interpretation of what "placement" means and there's nothing comparable about the whole mess.  The figures would be far more interesting if there were a way to adjust them for situational differences.  I'm sure the data analytics guys are trying to do exactly that to get a leg up.

As I mentioned in response to one of the other posters, Benjamin Solak is working on a similar project, and in his, he also breaks it down by situation. You can view his work on the Senior Bowl QBs here; it's incredibly impressive. https://www.ndtscouting.com/solak-2018-senior-bowl-contextualized-quarterbacking-available/

 

 

Edited February 21, 2018 by DCOrange

[Luxy312]

Benjamin Solak looks like a teenager in his pictures.  Not sure how I take someone so young to be a seasoned NFL talent evaluation expert.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, DCOrange said:

 

• Mason Rudolph's deep ball accuracy isn't nearly as good as his completion percentage would indicate. The author mentions it on his podcast, but basically, a ton of his deep balls forced his WR to come back to the ball rather than leading him, but he also noted that Rudolph was extremely impressive in the intermediate game.

 

I 100% agree with that. I don't think he is a great deep ball thrower despite his relatively high completions down the field - I think in part that was the product of his offense.  But he might be the best intermediate thrower in the draft for my money, it is certainly between him and Rosen.  And I think when you look at the offense overall you have to consider there is very little gimmicky bubble screen etc in it.  When Mason Rudolph threw he was throwing down the field into those intermediate or deep zones and in that intermediate game he is consistently on time and accurate.  I might be one who is less worried about deep balls than most.  You need to be able to throw them... but they are not the staple of playing QB in the NFL.  The intermediate game is.  

 

I know I am higher on him than you, and the intermediate game is a big part of why I like him.  

[BuffaloHokie13]

29 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

The author goes into detail about what he considers good ball placement in his podcast, which you can listen to here: https://soundcloud.com/user-743485251/episode-10

He talks about it at the very beginning if I remember right. For example, on the short passes, he looks for passes to be in a very specific spot, basically chest level so that the WR can catch it without over-extending, bending down, etc. so that he can pick up YAC since that's what you need in a short pass. The window for proper ball placement gets a little more generous further down the field.

 

It's certainly subjective; there's no purely objective way to look at ball placement, but ball placement is more important than completion percentage. What I'm really curious about is that I know Benjamin Solak from NDT Scouting did a similar project for all of the QBs in the Senior Bowl and is currently planning to publish his findings for the underclassmen (Darnold, Rosen, Lamar, etc.) around mid-March. I'm curious to see how similar their numbers are. But the main point is that I think it's very important to look at ball placement regardless of the fact that it's a subjective thing.

Well it's nice to know that he has at least outlined the criteria somewhere, but it'd be nice if he included it in text in the study. Again, just my opinion.

[John from Riverside]

I still think that depending on what the asking price is to move into the top 3 picks that Lamar Jackson should be a possibility.

 

 

[DCOrange]

34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I 100% agree with that. I don't think he is a great deep ball thrower despite his relatively high completions down the field - I think in part that was the product of his offense.  But he might be the best intermediate thrower in the draft for my money, it is certainly between him and Rosen.  And I think when you look at the offense overall you have to consider there is very little gimmicky bubble screen etc in it.  When Mason Rudolph threw he was throwing down the field into those intermediate or deep zones and in that intermediate game he is consistently on time and accurate.  I might be one who is less worried about deep balls than most.  You need to be able to throw them... but they are not the staple of playing QB in the NFL.  The intermediate game is.  

 

I know I am higher on him than you, and the intermediate game is a big part of why I like him.  

 

I think I referenced it in my Josh Rosen bullet if I remember right, but yeah, the intermediate game might be the most important area to be able to successfully throw to in the NFL, and Rudolph's numbers in that range are extremely promising. It's kinda funny; the author mentions in his podcast that he was surprised how low Rudolph's all-around numbers were, but with the numbers he put up in the intermediate range, he actually surprised me in a good way. I've said in the past that I don't think there's anything you can really hang your hat on with Rudolph, but maybe that intermediate game is something. I still don't like him as a 1st or 2nd round pick, but that's something Buffalo could point to and be like "Yeah, this right here is what excites us about him".

47 minutes ago, Luxy312 said:

Benjamin Solak looks like a teenager in his pictures.  Not sure how I take someone so young to be a seasoned NFL talent evaluation expert.

 

I don't think age really matters to be honest, especially if you're setting strict definitions of what is and isn't ball placement; it's really just a matter of whether or not you're willing to put in the work to chart everything out.

Edited February 21, 2018 by DCOrange