NFL Network to replay Snow Game

[Domdab99]

lol you're saying a football play is a non-predictive gamble like a roulette wheel spin? Holy crap, it's even worse than I thought. First off all, if a wheel has 38 numbers, there is a 1/38 chance of your number being hit, correct? But if the pay-out of hitting that number is only 36-1, you are losing long-term, DUCY?

 

While a football play can certainly have many outcomes, we know enough not to go for it on 4th and 21 from your own 15 in the first quarter. Why? Because the odds of that turning out well are not great. But, according to you, we can't predict the outcome of that play, so we should go for it all of the time, right? Hey! You're actually arguing FOR MacD to go for it in the snow game! Guess I was wrong about you. 

Edited February 23, 2018 by Domdab99

[Stank_Nasty]

20 hours ago, wagon127 said:

Sean McDermott was quoted saying that he made the call, because he didn't want to lose, and was ok with tying this game. He got lucky that Indy wasn't able to move on the following drive, and that the colts had an incomplete pass, which stopped the clock. Just because they won, doesn't mean it was the right call. When they finally got the ball back, it was 20 yards lost from where the ball previously was, and half the time left on the clock to score.

I actually didn't like the call but the bolded is just a really silly statement.... it was a blizzard. the defense was playing well. the colts not moving it had little to do with luck there and i'm sure that factored into the decision.

Edited February 23, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[Domdab99]

Punting and needing to stop Indy, then getting the ball back - further away from the goaline than if they had just gone for it - with only 2 minutes and change on the clock - was a retarded move. Why? BECAUSE THE SEASON WAS ON THE LINE! You can't settle for a tie there. You HAVE to win the game, or the Bills are out. 

 

Why can't people understand this?

 

I get the move if it was just another game...punt, pin the Colts back, wrap up at least a tie. I get that. 

 

But not in this instance. 4th and 1. And they have to win the game to stay alive. It's a no-brainer. 

 

But we have people here who are results oriented thinkers "Hey it worked out, so it was the right decision." And others who miss-apply basic gambling rules. 

 

It's just maddening. 

[Stank_Nasty]

8 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

Punting and needing to stop Indy, then getting the ball back - further away from the goaline than if they had just gone for it - with only 2 minutes and change on the clock - was a retarded move. Why? BECAUSE THE SEASON WAS ON THE LINE! You can't settle for a tie there. You HAVE to win the game, or the Bills are out. 

 

Why can't people understand this?

 

I get the move if it was just another game...punt, pin the Colts back, wrap up at least a tie. I get that. 

 

But not in this instance. 4th and 1. And they have to win the game to stay alive. It's a no-brainer. 

 

But we have people here who are results oriented thinkers "Hey it worked out, so it was the right decision." And others who miss-apply basic gambling rules. 

 

It's just maddening. 

bolded literally isn't true at all. the bills were on the indy 41. had they gone and not gotten it indy, even if they don't move the ball, can pin buffalo DEEP.

 

the way it shook out indy had to punt from around the 20 or 25 if i'm not mistaken and the bills had very manageable field position. around the their own 35 I believe. not optimal but much better than inside the 10 or 15. I literally just said I didn't like the call to punt but I get his reasoning. he was banking on his punter and defense and playing field position for a final drive. and you need to at least get you facts straight. 

Edited February 23, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[Domdab99]

1 minute ago, Stank_Nasty said:

bolded literally isn't true at all. the bills were on the indy 41. had they gone and not gotten it indy, even if they don't move the ball, can pin buffalo DEEP.

 

the way it shook out indy had to punt from around the 20 or 25 if i'm not mistaken and the bills had very manageable field position. I literally just said I didn't like the call to punt but I get his reasoning. he was banking on his punter and defense and playing field position for a final drive. and you need to at least get you facts straight. 

 

But you're missing the very real possibility of going for it on 4th and 1 AND MAKING IT. You're only assuming they don't make it.Then they have the ball in better field position, with more time on the clock, and are not in desperation mode - thean if they had punted. 

[JMF2006]

21 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

 

lol classic results-oriented thinking. 

 

All you have to do is look at the 4th down stats.

 

The Bills  4th down conversions were 2 for 15 on the year.

 

If that doesn't scream punt then you need to put the pipe down.

[Stank_Nasty]

1 minute ago, Domdab99 said:

 

But you're missing the very real possibility of going for it on 4th and 1 AND MAKING IT. You're only assuming they don't make it.Then they have the ball in better field position, with more time on the clock, and are not in desperation mode - thean if they had punted. 

right. which is why I didn't agree with the call. we are on the same page there..... but at least get the facts right. you didn't. 

 

I, unlike you apparently, understand why he did it and the reasoning behind it. I don't agree with it but it ultimately worked. 

1 minute ago, JMF2006 said:

 

All you have to do is look at the 4th down stats.

 

The Bills  4th down conversions were 2 for 15 on the year.

 

If that doesn't scream punt then you need to put the pipe down.

I agree. and joe webb doesn't help matters.... I didn't agree with the call. but I get it.

[Domdab99]

2 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

 

All you have to do is look at the 4th down stats.

 

The Bills  4th down conversions were 2 for 15 on the year.

 

If that doesn't scream punt then you need to put the pipe down.

 

Look at the clock, Man. Jesus. 

[JMF2006]

1 minute ago, Domdab99 said:

 

Look at the clock, Man. Jesus. 

 

They hadn't moved the ball well all day the Bills had 3 TO's and the 2m warning.

 

Getting the ball back was a given.

[Domdab99]

30 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

 

They hadn't moved the ball well all day the Bills had 3 TO's and the 2m warning.

 

Getting the ball back was a given.

 

If that's the case, what's wrong with giving yourself TWO shots at the ball? By going for it on 4th and 1, and then, if they don't make it, by stopping them.

 

As you said, the Colts hadn't moved the ball all day, "so getting the ball back was a given," ...Right? 

 

***

 

Guys, I get that it worked, and I really do understand what McD was thinking there. And under normal circumstances, I don't mind the call.

 

But having a head coach be that conservative with the season on the line does not bode well for the future.

 

Do you think McD would have gone for it on 4th down in the Super Bowl like the Eagles did at the end of the first half? Hell no.

 

You need to be aggressive to win. 

Edited February 23, 2018 by Domdab99

[Stank_Nasty]

27 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

 

 

But having a head coach be that conservative with the season on the line does not bode well for the future.

 

 

having a coach that just ended a 17 year stooper after an offseason with massive roster turnover and inconsistent play from basically every unit makes me not worry too much about his future.

 

he did just fine. lets go ahead and look at a whole seasons worth of work as opposed to taking a single situation IN A WIN and worrying about the future becuz of it.. geez.

Edited February 23, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[wagon127]

I think it would be rather unique to see a tie at the Ralph someday. It never happens in sports. I also go to plenty of Bills games, where it wouldn't bug me that much as say somebody who only goes to 1 game a year. I just hate coming so close to seeing it happen so late in the year. New England was still on the schedule. It was just as annoying when Rex punted, hoping to tie against Miami the year before. That time it didn't work. I thought that was the final thing that got Rex canned two days later. Obviously there was many things, but still. To see the new guy do the same thing was maddening. I don't think that Pederson would have done the same thing. I do hope the bills take a long look at the Eagle's strategy in the Super Bowl, and see how much of that would work for them.

[reddogblitz]

1 hour ago, JMF2006 said:

 

All you have to do is look at the 4th down stats.

 

The Bills  4th down conversions were 2 for 15 on the year.

 

If that doesn't scream punt then you need to put the pipe down.

 

And in how many of those cases did we have our 3rd string QB that had already thrown 2 picks with 8" of snow on the ground?

 

That's my whole deal on this.  NONE.  Or NONE from all the data gathered to get the percentages of times a team punts in OT and wins.    A lot of them were probably in a cushy dome with thier starting QB.  In the case of this game (8" of snow/3rd sting QB/top WR out) you gotta take all that into account.  Not to mention the other team has Adam V kicking FGs and had made a long extra point not long before that.

 

You gotta take the situation along with the percentages into play IMHO.

[Domdab99]

2 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

And in how many of those cases did we have our 3rd string QB that had already thrown 2 picks with 8" of snow on the ground?

 

That's my whole deal on this.  NONE.  Or NONE from all the data gathered to get the percentages of times a team punts in OT and wins.    A lot of them were probably in a cushy dome with thier starting QB.  In the case of this game (8" of snow/3rd sting QB/top WR out) you gotta take all that into account.  Not to mention the other team has Adam V kicking FGs and had made a long extra point not long before that.

 

You gotta take the situation along with the percentages into play IMHO.

 

So you'd rather not go for it with one of the best RBs in the league, but you DO want to punt, get the ball back - further from the endzone - and let our 3rd string QB lead the winning drive - the same guy you just lambasted. Gotcha. Makes a lot of sense. 

[C.Biscuit97]

On 2/19/2018 at 10:04 PM, Fadingpain said:

I thought it was cool and enjoyed it at the time, but in all honesty, it's not worth watching again.

 

At least that's my take on it.

 

 

Yeah, I agree completely. Awesome to look at it but it was a bad football game (though it's hard to blame them).

[reddogblitz]

Just now, Domdab99 said:

 

So you'd rather not go for it with one of the best RBs in the league, but you DO want to punt, get the ball back - further from the endzone - and let our 3rd string QB lead the winning drive - the same guy you just lambasted. Gotcha. Makes a lot of sense. 

 

It worked so I'm good with it.  Bottom line.  

 

I didn't "lambaste" anybody.  Just the facts mam, "our 3rd string QB that had already thrown 2 picks "

 

It's a different philosophy than yours.  Many coaches don't want to over gamble on a play that if they don't get put them in much greater chance of losing.  Turning the football over to Indy who had Adam V making long kicks.  If they punt, it extends the game.  I see other coaches like John Harbaugh for example do similar things.  It worked in this case.

 

Go BILLS !!

 

[ricojes]

On 2/20/2018 at 5:17 AM, 4_kidd_4 said:

 

Literally the best time I’ve had at the stadium in years.

I was there, and It was a lot of fun.  But I think the "Let it snow" game in 2002 against Miami was the best snow game ever at the stadium.  Of course it didn't snow as much as this past year, but it still sucked driving home afterwards!   Ricky Williams ran for 220+ and scored right in front of our seats.  There's a good pic of me swatting him on the shoulder pads, I'll see if I can dig that one up..

 

Found it, love the interwebs!

 

Have to slow it down or pause it, but you can see him start to duck as there were a few of us waiting to unload on him.  I am the one in red.  He got out of there quick!

 

 

Edited February 23, 2018 by ricojes

[PromoTheRobot]

23 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Watching right now the decision to punt on 4th and 1 with 4:13 left in OT.

 

Still one of the worst coaching decisions in the annals of the NFL. 

We go for it, fail, game ends tied, we miss playoffs, drought hits 18. Yay.

16 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

 

Im not sure why I’m always shocked at how absolutely clueless some supposed football fans are. 

 

But hey, you be you. 

It's easy to argue about a choice not taken. It's never wrong.

[Domdab99]

2 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

We go for it, fail, game ends tied, we miss playoffs, drought hits 18. Yay.

 

Why do you assume 1) we fail, and 2) that we don't get the ball back? By punting, aren't you assuming you can get the ball back? Why is punting and trying to stop them better than going for it and trying to stop them (if we fail on the attempt)? 

 

do you guys even know what you're typing?

[PromoTheRobot]

Just now, Domdab99 said:

 

Why do you assume 1) we fail, and 2) that we don't get the ball back? By punting, aren't you assuming you can get the ball back? Why is punting and trying to stop them better than going for it and trying to stop them (if we fail on the attempt)? 

 

do you guys even know what you're typing?

 

And why do you assume we make it in that tough footing? Those conditions through all the analytics out the window. I would have punted too. I would have banked on a turnover deep in the Colts end instead of risking a 4th down.