Moving Up In The Draft

[corta765]

With the draft nearing and excitement building for hopefully a new Bills QB drafted a lot of us have wondered what it would cost for the Bills to slingshot high up into the Top 5 range. Here are three recent examples we can base off of:

 

Eagles get Carson Wentz

Had 13th pick traded Kiko, Byron Maxwell, & 13th pick to Miami for 8. Then traded the #8 pick, their third-round pick, their fourth-round pick, a 2017 first-round pick, and a 2018 second-round pick for Cleveland's 2nd overall pick

 

Cost: 2x 1sts (draft year plus 2017), 2nd 2018, 3rd rnd, 4th rnd, and a LB/CB which was a minor salary dump that no one understood on Miami's end haha.

Eagles Draft Capital left: 3rd, 5th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and a 7th

 

Rams get Jared Goff

Had to trade their 15th pick two second-round picks, and a third-round pick in the 2016 draft along with a 1st and 3rd round pick in 2017. Rams received 4th and 6th pick back.

Cost 2x 1st's (draft year and 2017), two seconds, two 3rds (draft year and 2017) for the pick.

 

Redskins get RGIII

Had to give three 1st round pick 2012 (22 that year), 2013, and 2014 plus 2nd round pick for RGIII.

Cost: 3x 1st's and a 2nd.

 

Realistically if the Bills are going to move up they are looking at giving 2x 1st round picks, a 2nd round pick, and either a 3rd or 4th round pick. Each trade route had a situation that cost a player or another draft chip. The Redskins would be the closest comparison for Buffalo because they picked 22nd in 2012 and managed to rocket up the board.

 

Given the QB needs by a lot of teams in this draft my question would be would a team like the Giants or more likely the Colts who have a long term future plan a QB take an offer from Buffalo like both 1sts, 2019 1st, a 2nd, and Cordy Glenn? I truly don't know if that is enough ammunition because that is still a sizeable drop. I think IND maybe would consider that because it could help their offensive line and help replenish their roster, but if your Buffalo are you willing to do it if Rosen and Darnold both go 1-2 and your already down to the 3rd pick.

 

These are the type of scenarios I think McBeane is having to consider if they really do plan on moving up.

[Victory Formation]

I think Darnold goes 1, Rosen 2. I don't think we will trade to 3 for Mayfield or Allen, it could happen, but it would be a really ballsy move.

[corta765]

56 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

I think Darnold goes 1, Rosen 2. I don't think we will trade to 3 for Mayfield or Allen, it could happen, but it would be a really ballsy move.

Agreed which is why I don't think they move unless they like Mayfield and he available at 9 where they could swing with the 49ers. I bet they would take both 1sts and a 3rd next year (something like that).

 

The Giants truly are the real wildcard. IF they decide not to go QB they could hold that 2nd pick for ransom pretty decent which I do think we have ammunition for. I'm just not sure they would want to go all the way to 21st even for say 3 1sts like the Redskins did.

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

If we sign Allen we definitely will need a decent Vet Bridge QB because he is raw.

[Bill Murray]

I think our best chance is if the Browns want to sign a vet QB (Cousins, Foles, a Minn QB) and draft S. Barkley #1 overall.  That gives them their offense.  Then they prob would trade back from #4 for as much draft capital this year as they can get to fill the holes.  So maybe they would trade #4 for our two firsts this year and some other picks / Glenn.  

 

At #4, we will get at least Mayfield, and could get one of the top two guys if something odd happens w the Giants or Colts picks.  

[Bangarang]

2 hours ago, NewDayBills said:

I think Darnold goes 1, Rosen 2. I don't think we will trade to 3 for Mayfield or Allen, it could happen, but it would be a really ballsy move.

 

You say ballsy, I say Billsy

[sleeby]

I just hope that 'The Process' is not "all in on red 12."   

[The_Dude]

6 hours ago, NewDayBills said:

I think Darnold goes 1, Rosen 2. I don't think we will trade to 3 for Mayfield or Allen, it could happen, but it would be a really ballsy move.

 

If the Bills traded to 3 for Allen I’d be pissed. Mayfield would be brilliant. 

[Da webster guy]

6 hours ago, corta765 said:

With the draft nearing and excitement building for hopefully a new Bills QB drafted a lot of us have wondered what it would cost for the Bills to slingshot high up into the Top 5 range. Here are three recent examples we can base off of:

 

Eagles get Carson Wentz

Had 13th pick traded Kiko, Byron Maxwell, & 13th pick to Miami for 8. Then traded the #8 pick, their third-round pick, their fourth-round pick, a 2017 first-round pick, and a 2018 second-round pick for Cleveland's 2nd overall pick

 

Cost: 2x 1sts (draft year plus 2017), 2nd 2018, 3rd rnd, 4th rnd, and a LB/CB which was a minor salary dump that no one understood on Miami's end haha.

Eagles Draft Capital left: 3rd, 5th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and a 7th

 

Rams get Jared Goff

Had to trade their 15th pick two second-round picks, and a third-round pick in the 2016 draft along with a 1st and 3rd round pick in 2017. Rams received 4th and 6th pick back.

Cost 2x 1st's (draft year and 2017), two seconds, two 3rds (draft year and 2017) for the pick.

 

Redskins get RGIII

Had to give three 1st round pick 2012 (22 that year), 2013, and 2014 plus 2nd round pick for RGIII.

Cost: 3x 1st's and a 2nd.

 

Realistically if the Bills are going to move up they are looking at giving 2x 1st round picks, a 2nd round pick, and either a 3rd or 4th round pick. Each trade route had a situation that cost a player or another draft chip. The Redskins would be the closest comparison for Buffalo because they picked 22nd in 2012 and managed to rocket up the board.

 

Given the QB needs by a lot of teams in this draft my question would be would a team like the Giants or more likely the Colts who have a long term future plan a QB take an offer from Buffalo like both 1sts, 2019 1st, a 2nd, and Cordy Glenn? I truly don't know if that is enough ammunition because that is still a sizeable drop. I think IND maybe would consider that because it could help their offensive line and help replenish their roster, but if your Buffalo are you willing to do it if Rosen and Darnold both go 1-2 and your already down to the 3rd pick.

 

These are the type of scenarios I think McBeane is having to consider if they really do plan on moving up.

Not sure which draft value chart you're using but the Jimmy Johnson one says we wouldnt need to give up nearly as much as you proposed to get into 3rd spot.

His chart is just a guideline though, it could be off considerably.

[corta765]

11 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

Not sure which draft value chart you're using but the Jimmy Johnson one says we wouldnt need to give up nearly as much as you proposed to get into 3rd spot.

His chart is just a guideline though, it could be off considerably.

 

I am using what has actually happened not a value chart not that it doesn't have merit. When the Rams put up the 2nd overall pick for RG3 it was to the highest bidder not a value chart. If the Colts or the Giants especially were to do that the cost will not be near what the value chart says because there are a lot of QB needy teams.

11 hours ago, The_Dude said:

 

If the Bills traded to 3 for Allen I’d be pissed. Mayfield would be brilliant. 

 

Agreed. Allen to me is the guy scouts gush over in terms of potential which happens wayyy too often but the results never equal what you hope. Mayfield would be really fun.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

I am using what has actually happened not a value chart not that it doesn't have merit. When the Rams put up the 2nd overall pick for RG3 it was to the highest bidder not a value chart. If the Colts or the Giants especially were to do that the cost will not be near what the value chart says because there are a lot of QB needy teams.

 

But you shouldn't forget that all those trades were multiple 1sts over multiple years and so included some discounting.  The Bills have two 1sts THIS year to offer.  

[corta765]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But you shouldn't forget that all those trades were multiple 1sts over multiple years and so included some discounting.  The Bills have two 1sts THIS year to offer.  

 

That's a good point, I am just not sure how it rates moving that far back even with back to back picks.

[Chuck Wagon]

I would imagine the price at #21 / #22 / Eagles' 3rd round / 2019 Bills 1st and maybe a player like Cordy Glenn (both the Colts and Giants likely wouldn't mind helping their Oline).

 

That's slightly more value than the #3 pick but slightly less than the #2 off value charts.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, corta765 said:

 

That's a good point, I am just not sure how it rates moving that far back even with back to back picks.

 

I think it depends.  If they want a deal with Giants I think it is a two step deal. I think there are players the Giants will covet in that top 10 who could be immediate contributors and they think they can win in 2018.  If it is the Colts they are still in a more fundamental rebuild phase and might well see two firsts this year as speeding that up considerably.  

[26TrapDraw]

Beane is a smart gm and seems to have a clear vision of how he wants to build this team. I don't think he moves up at all and takes the bpa at 21 and 22 and the rest of the picks he fills needs. I think the 2018 qb will be on the roster well before the draft. He may take a flyer on a QB prospect later but the Bills will make all 5 of their picks in the top 100 count.

Edited February 13, 2018 by BeefCurtns

[BuffaloHokie13]

I'm looking at Rich Hill's trade charts, one of which is based on all draft trades made since 2011, and the other is based on only pick for pick trades. If the Colts were the trade partner, it looks like the deal isn't too incredibly bad.

 

Bills give:

21, 22, 2019 1st, and Glenn (Values of 121.66 + Glenn, and 697.83 + Glenn respectively)

 

Bills get:

3 & 67 (Values of 102.54 and 588.92 respectively)

 

So based on either chart we're overpaying without even factoring Glenn into the deal. Am I crazy?

[BuffaloHokie13]

22 hours ago, corta765 said:

Eagles get Carson Wentz

Had 13th pick traded Kiko, Byron Maxwell, & 13th pick to Miami for 8. Then traded the #8 pick, their third-round pick, their fourth-round pick, a 2017 first-round pick, and a 2018 second-round pick for Cleveland's 2nd overall pick

 

Cost: 1 1st, 1 2nd (2017 1st), 2 3rds(2016 + 2018 2nd), 4th rnd, and a LB/CB which was a minor salary dump that no one understood on Miami's end haha.

Eagles Draft Capital left: 3rd, 5th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and a 7th

 

Rams get Jared Goff

Had to trade their 15th pick two second-round picks, and a third-round pick in the 2016 draft along with a 1st and 3rd round pick in 2017. Rams received 4th and 6th pick back.

Cost 1 1st, 3 2nds (2 in 2016 + 2017 1st), 1 3rd, 1 4th (2017 3rd) for 1st overall, a 4th, and a 6th.

 

Redskins get RGIII

Had to give three 1st round pick 2012 (22 that year), 2013, and 2014 plus 2nd round pick for RGIII.

Cost: 1 1st and 3 2nd's (2012 + 2013 & 2014 1sts).

Adjusted Costs for how the future picks are generally valued. None of those trades involved 2 1st round picks in the current year, which makes our situation unique and valuable.

Edited February 13, 2018 by BuffaloHokie13

[Luxy312]

3 hours ago, BeefCurtns said:

Beane is a smart gm and seems to have a clear vision of how he wants to build this team. I don't think he moves up at all and takes the bpa at 21 and 22 and the rest of the picks he fills needs. I think the 2018 qb will be on the roster well before the draft. He may take a flyer on a QB prospect later but the Bills will make all 5 of their picks in the top 100 count.

 

Right or wrong, this is where my mindset is.  If this team were simply a QB away from feeling like they're a Superbowl contender, AND they thought one of the 5-6 QB's that we're talking about were significantly better than all the others (let's say "can't miss" kind of better), then a trade happens.  What I'm stuck on right now in that context is all of the apparent positions of need for this team, deferring obviously to whatever happens in free agency.  I think they're weak on 2 OL positions and arguably 3.  Defensive tackle has to be a consideration, along with linebacker and another corner.  Based on the needs and the frequency of early draft picks, I'm not sure I can get there to move up.  I also don't see a QB that separates themselves from the other 4-5.

Edited February 13, 2018 by Luxy312

[corta765]

21 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I'm looking at Rich Hill's trade charts, one of which is based on all draft trades made since 2011, and the other is based on only pick for pick trades. If the Colts were the trade partner, it looks like the deal isn't too incredibly bad.

 

Bills give:

21, 22, 2019 1st, and Glenn (Values of 121.66 + Glenn, and 697.83 + Glenn respectively)

 

Bills get:

3 & 67 (Values of 102.54 and 588.92 respectively)

 

So based on either chart we're overpaying without even factoring Glenn into the deal. Am I crazy?

 

Im ok with this even with the 1sts because we have both 2nds and a 3rd so you can still fill the roster with potentially solid starters. But the name drafted better be one of Rosen, Mayfield, or Darnold otherwise I'd hate it.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, corta765 said:

Im ok with this even with the 1sts because we have both 2nds and a 3rd so you can still fill the roster with potentially solid starters. But the name drafted better be one of Rosen, Mayfield, or Darnold otherwise I'd hate it.

I'm doing more digging based on the examples you gave & the chart values to see what the standard inflation amount is so I can try to match it in my scenario. Will report back in a bit.