What's Plan C for QB?

[SoTier]

4 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

So Russell Wilson?

He was recent and went late rounds

Or Dak?

 

Just saying.

 

Sometimes people slip through.

Even if they are the exception and not the rule.

 

(Peterman needs a lot of work and a miracle btw, and I'm not okay with hoping for a miracle btw)

 

Wilson went in round 3.  That's not "late rounds".  It's Day 2 ... and Wilson's physical limitation was his height, or more precisely, his lack of it.  If he'd been 6'2 or so, he'd have gone in the Top 5.  NFL GMs want big, tall QBs so they take chances on lesser prospects like Osweiler (6'7 or 6'8)  early but leave short guys like Brees or Wilson or slightly built guys like Cousins to languish.

[SoTier]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think that's true at all.  Yes, scouts are scouring the hinterlands.  But NFL history has shown that big physical tools in college are only part of what it takes for NFL success.  Intelligence, processing/reaction speed, and even physical development play a role.  So does the quality of development a QB receives after he enters the league.

 

Despite best efforts, scouting is not an exact science.

 

That's why every year or two there's a Dak Prescott who plays better than 5 of the 7 QB drafted above him,  and why the success rate (defined pretty liberally) of top-5 picks is still only 50% overall.

 

I don't follow college football, so I don't know if there was some reason for Prescott to fall to fourth round, but I think it's still a little early to declare Prescott a "success" on the same level or better as the Cowgirls' QB he replaced, Tony Romo.

[SouthNYfan]

31 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Wilson went in round 3.  That's not "late rounds".  It's Day 2 ... and Wilson's physical limitation was his height, or more precisely, his lack of it.  If he'd been 6'2 or so, he'd have gone in the Top 5.  NFL GMs want big, tall QBs so they take chances on lesser prospects like Osweiler (6'7 or 6'8)  early but leave short guys like Brees or Wilson or slightly built guys like Cousins to languish.

 

That's fair

 

I would consider 3rd still later than early, but we can agree to disagree on that

 

It is very telling that the majority of the late round gems were from decades ago

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Agree completely.

I've been saying it for a while, I don't know why people think luck is an option.

If he's healthy he's untouchable

If he's not healthy, why want him?

The only reason he could be available (and I put a very small chance of this) is that the Colts realize that they are a bad team and are wasting his prime. Are they better off taking a package of Glenn, 21, 22 and a 2019 1st (and drafting their QB at 3)? It’s highly unlikely and McDaniels probably wouldn’t have taken the job otherwise. The Colts currently have one of the worst rosters in football but a high end QB. It is an interesting thought. If they love one of the QBs early maybe they see a chance to build a contender 3-4 years down the road? Again, not likely but is Rosen, Glenn, Davenport, Josh Jackson, cap space and a 2019 1st better than Luck and Bradley Chubb? Their other (and more likely option) would be to take a package of Glenn, 21 & 22 for pick 3 (assuming that the Bills were going up to get a QB). 

[SouthNYfan]

11 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The only reason he could be available (and I put a very small chance of this) is that the Colts realize that they are a bad team and are wasting his prime. Are they better off taking a package of Glenn, 21, 22 and a 2019 1st (and drafting their QB at 3)? It’s highly unlikely and McDaniels probably wouldn’t have taken the job otherwise. The Colts currently have one of the worst rosters in football but a high end QB. It is an interesting thought. If they love one of the QBs early maybe they see a chance to build a contender 3-4 years down the road? Again, not likely but is Rosen, Glenn, Davenport, Josh Jackson, cap space and a 2019 1st better than Luck and Bradley Chubb? Their other (and more likely option) would be to take a package of Glenn, 21 & 22 for pick 3 (assuming that the Bills were going up to get a QB). 

 

That's fair.

 

I think that's a huge leap of faith on both sides to do that.

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

That's fair.

 

I think that's a huge leap of faith on both sides to do that.

Maybe so, although I could certainly see a trade down. Their roster really is bad. The hypothetical I threw out (assuming Glenn is healthy) gives them a starting LT and 2 more starters. They also have an early 2nd round pick. By pick 36 they could have acquired 4 starters. 

[SouthNYfan]

14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Maybe so, although I could certainly see a trade down. Their roster really is bad. The hypothetical I threw out (assuming Glenn is healthy) gives them a starting LT and 2 more starters. They also have an early 2nd round pick. By pick 36 they could have acquired 4 starters. 

 

What was the hypothetical again?

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

What was the hypothetical again?

Glenn, 21 & 22 for 3. 

[SouthNYfan]

8 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Glenn, 21 & 22 for 3. 

 

If healthy, even they wanna move on, they'd probably want more.

I mean, unless they are going full on rebuild, but in that case, they'd probably want something more still.

Who knows.

!@#$ it, even if his shoulder is a grenade, I'm in.

I don't give a crap anymore let's just go crazy:)

[Kirby Jackson]

33 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

If healthy, even they wanna move on, they'd probably want more.

I mean, unless they are going full on rebuild, but in that case, they'd probably want something more still.

Who knows.

!@#$ it, even if his shoulder is a grenade, I'm in.

I don't give a crap anymore let's just go crazy:)

According to the draft value chart it is almost perfect, you’d be adding Glenn to sweeten the deal. Maybe they throw a 4th or so back you’re way? 

[SouthNYfan]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

According to the draft value chart it is almost perfect, you’d be adding Glenn to sweeten the deal. Maybe they throw a 4th or so back you’re way? 

 

Sorry I misread

I thought you were doing 21, 22 and Glenn for luck

 

Id do 21, 22 and Glenn for #3 in a heartbeat

[SaviorPeterman]

On 1/28/2018 at 8:58 AM, horned dogs said:

I think the Bills Wire draft is more like Plan D.

 

Plan A sign FA (Cousins)

Plan B trade for (Smith, Keenum, Luck) etc.

Plan C trade up for the guy you like (Rosen, Mayfield) etc.

Plan D Tyrod, with a project draft like (White)

Plan Z start Nate Peterman, release TT and go with Savior Peterman plan

 

The reason I think McBeane like plan A and B is they can then retain draft capital to restock SOME positional needs. They will of course have to give a higher pick up depending on who you're trading for.

 

I still think a lot of fans are going to be disappointed when we don't spend big money on a FA QB or give up the farm to move up and draft one.

 

So say what you want about NP, but still think there is a major disconnect between Beane and McD and the fans in terms of NP viability as a 2018 starting QB option.

 

Bottom line, no team out there is going to trade with the Bills and pass on an elite blue chip talent like Sam Darnold. And if they did they'd ask for way more than any draft trade chart says is equal value.

[BigBuff423]

9 minutes ago, SaviorPeterman said:

 

I still think a lot of fans are going to be disappointed when we don't spend big money on a FA QB or give up the farm to move up and draft one.

 

So say what you want about NP, but still think there is a major disconnect between Beane and McD and the fans in terms of NP viability as a 2018 starting QB option.

 

Bottom line, no team out there is going to trade with the Bills and pass on an elite blue chip talent like Sam Darnold. And if they did they'd ask for way more than any draft trade chart says is equal value.

 

Look, I was all for giving Nate a chance, I went on record and I'm not going back on it just because he had one of the worst halves in all of football like, since footballs were oblong... 

I think McD's decision has to be taken in context of Tyrod's abysmal play for two weeks and the season seemed like it was slipping away, so he made a bold move. Something for years the previous Bills' coaches would not have done. I don't have any problem with it. And I too think Nate redeemed himself, just a little bit - let's not get crazy, with his snow-ball game and utilizing Benjamin. So, I'm intrigued by his possibility with a better OC and hopefully a better QB Coach. 

 

But....and this is a giant backside BUT, I'm not comfortable pinning all the hopes onto Peterman. I no longer want Tyrod at QB, and hope the Bills can trade him for something like a plate of brisket and some condoms (what? both are for slow burning meat), and that there is still a way to get a guy like say, Alex Smith to be the Bills QB as the quality Vet for the team. And, I want the Bills to draft a guy....I personally would prefer them NOT to trade up, but if they do - they need to go all in and get into top 3 - if not (and this is my choice), you take value at 21 / 22 and trade back if at all possible out of one of those spots getting DL / LB / WR / OL and Edge, and taking a guy like White in mid-rounds, i.e. 3rd / 4th depending on how the Draft falls. 

 

Then if Peterman is everything you hope he is and I can hope too, he will beat out A. Smith, the rookie QB and anyone else that shows up to challenge him....the best QBs have done just that: demonstrated they have the goods and no one can take it from them. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

43 minutes ago, SaviorPeterman said:

 

I still think a lot of fans are going to be disappointed when we don't spend big money on a FA QB or give up the farm to move up and draft one.

 

So say what you want about NP, but still think there is a major disconnect between Beane and McD and the fans in terms of NP viability as a 2018 starting QB option.

 

Bottom line, no team out there is going to trade with the Bills and pass on an elite blue chip talent like Sam Darnold. And if they did they'd ask for way more than any draft trade chart says is equal value.

Based on what ...your sources? Quite frankly, and its not the case I'm sure, if either one of them believes NP is a viable option next year...they should be fired.

 

We shall see on the no one trading with Bills. Personally, I think a team like the  Giants or Colts may well be in play by the time the draft comes around.

 

As I"ve said before, if they can't/don't sign Cousins or another FA (Keenum), they will likely make a trade for someone like Alex Smith, Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater etc. long before they put NP behind center in 2018.

 

McBeane is also more likely to give away the farm (your phrase), and move up near the top......... than Nate Peterman is the starter in 2018.

 

I put the odds of Nate Peterman as our starter in 2018 as .00000001

[CircleTheWagons99]

6 hours ago, bobobonators said:

 

But going 3-13 and watching a rookie QB that is clearly not yet ready throw 3INT every game wont hinder anything at all. 

 

Im in favor of moving on from TT but the original poster brings up a good point. 

You dont know that. But I do know what TT brings to the table and enough is enough. 

[bobobonators]

2 hours ago, CircleTheWagons99 said:

You dont know that. But I do know what TT brings to the table and enough is enough. 

The entire point of this thread is Plan C. Meaning we dont land Cousins or an Alex Smith. And the better QB’s in this draft are all gone by the time we pick, leaving us a draft pick at QB that will be raw and may not be ready. 

 

At which point you acknowledge going 3-13 is somehow better than staying with TT and going anywhere between 7-9 to 10-6. I dont see the logic in that but I get youre done with TT. Many people are. 

[OldTimer1960]

15 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

I don't think you will be seeing Luck traded, for all the reasons mentioned already....I think everyone will be surprised when Alex Smith ends up with the Colts.  If you are the Colts and you are waiting to see if Luck can or can't come back, are you really going to use that 3rd overall draft pick on a franchise QB?  Are you going run Jacoby Brissett back out there and try and sell tickets?  (yes McDaniels knows him)  ....they could trade for Smith and his one year of control.  That buys them time to evaluate Luck, or for Luck to get another surgery etc.  If Luck is finished, you could then sign Smith to an extension....it would be his team (something smith wants) and you are ok at QB for 4-5 years and can spend all of that time finding the next one.  Or, if Luck comes back and he's ready to go, you thank Smith for his time and trouble, he becomes a free agent and probably finds himself very much in demand still.  Indy could then trade out of 3 this year, load up on picks and go forward.  

 

As a Chiefs fan, It is entertaining reading all the different view points about what to do at QB for the Bills....lots of opinions.  My opinion is that you were in position at 10 last year and missed on Mahomes. (and maybe Watson) 

 

In my biased opinion, you could have taken Mahomes (or maybe Watson) at 10 last year instead of trading out.  Now you'll have to expend serious draft capital to move up to 3 or 4 to do essentially the same thing a year later......and you have to hope that whoever you take, is someone they think more highly of than they thought of Mahomes or Watson last year.  

 

I'm not saying it won't work out etc...but seems like quite a bit more involved and risky trying to move up now as opposed to staying in place last season.

 

I honestly hope you get something good and I'll be rooting for you and watching intently on draft day.

If I were running the Colts, I would not trade for Alex Smith under any circumstances.  If Luck will eventually be healthy, I’d roll with Brissett.  If Luck might not be healthy, I would still not be inclined to trade for Smith as the Colts aren’t ready to compete anyway.  

 

 

8 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Totally agree.  When a QB from North Dakota State goes #2 in the draft, that means that the scouts are not only scouring the hinterlands, they aren't letting any potential Tom Bradys slip through the cracks like they may have done twenty years ago.  These days, a kid who goes in the late rounds is seriously lacking in the physical attributes necessary for an NFL QB, so he's not even a decent bet to make a "solid backup".

Disagree.. scouting QBs is seriously a crap shoot.  Nobody really knows who will be a good NFL QB.   

[LA Grant]

Plan C,

 

I think is you keep Tyrod at QB1, and go with a viable veteran alternative for QB2 -- Ryan Fitzpatrick would be a great fit. He's been in this situation at every stop of his career. If Tyrod stinks, you want to have someone more reliable than Nathan Peterman or EJ Manuel. 

 

I think Tyrod & Fitz could almost be complementary QBs in a creative scheme that uses QB2 in certain situations -- like if you have to pass a lot, and take more chances, especially if you're playing from behind. Similar to 3rd down RB, or a closer. 

 

Tyrod manages the game better than Fitz and gives you a potentially very dynamic backfield in a Philly or KC-style RPO. Tyrod is not nor will he ever be a gunslinger. That's not his game. Sometimes you need a gunslinger. But most of the time you need a manager. If we're playing with a lead, you don't want Fitz screwing it up with a poorly timed INT.   Tyrod manages. 

 

And then QB3 is Nathan Peterman vs. our day 2 rookie QB.

[Punching Bag]

47 minutes ago, LA Grant said:

Plan C,

 

I think is you keep Tyrod at QB1, and go with a viable veteran alternative for QB2 -- Ryan Fitzpatrick would be a great fit. He's been in this situation at every stop of his career. If Tyrod stinks, you want to have someone more reliable than Nathan Peterman or EJ Manuel. 

 

I think Tyrod & Fitz could almost be complementary QBs in a creative scheme that uses QB2 in certain situations -- like if you have to pass a lot, and take more chances, especially if you're playing from behind. Similar to 3rd down RB, or a closer. 

 

Tyrod manages the game better than Fitz and gives you a potentially very dynamic backfield in a Philly or KC-style RPO. Tyrod is not nor will he ever be a gunslinger. That's not his game. Sometimes you need a gunslinger. But most of the time you need a manager. If we're playing with a lead, you don't want Fitz screwing it up with a poorly timed INT.   Tyrod manages. 

 

And then QB3 is Nathan Peterman vs. our day 2 rookie QB.

 

I agree in general with you - they are opposite type QBs and the one thing they would need to watch out for is WRs pushing for QBs to get more receptions causing issues since neither QB would be causing issues.

 

And DBs would have someone to be their JUGs machine with Peteredman. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

I don't follow college football, so I don't know if there was some reason for Prescott to fall to fourth round, but I think it's still a little early to declare Prescott a "success" on the same level or better as the Cowgirls' QB he replaced, Tony Romo.

 

Tony Romo is a legit franchise QB. Where did I assert Prescott a "success" relative to Tony Romo?   The point is, Prescott is better than 5 of the 7 QB drafted above him.  That would be Paxton Lynch, Hackenberg, Brissett, Cody Kessler, and Connor Cook.  Any disagreement on that point?

 

I start looking at QB quality when they've got >30 games under their belt.  Prescott may or may not be an "all star", but I think it's clear he's going to be a successful NFL QB. He's been rocking a 65% completion rating, a stellar TD/INT ratio of almost 3:1, a 7.5 AY/A that says he's not Mr Dump-off-check-down, and almost 220 ypg.  Yes, he fell off without his star RB this year, but he still did well enough.

7 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Glenn, 21 & 22 for 3. 

 

Dumb question: trades are contingent on the player passing a physical with the receiving team.

 

If you trade up during the draft for a pick, and include a player, how does that work? 

 

The receiving team can't go to the NFL a week after the draft and say "Dammit, that guy we got didn't pass his physical, bring everyone back to the draft and do-over from Pick #3"