Maine-iac Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Then we have the case of Tyrod Taylor, whom Buffalo benched this week. Taylor actually ranked 10th in conversion rate (42.4 percent) even though he had the fourth-highest need yards (8.7). His ALEX dropped to -0.1 this season, ranked 29th. We've seen this continued change in Taylor's game. In his first season with Buffalo, his ALEX was +4.5, which ranked second in the NFL. It dropped to +2.3 in 2016, but still good enough for seventh in the league, and he was better at converting plays. Taylor's conversion rate was actually a career best this year, but alas he is benched after the Bills allowed 81 points in two losses. A big problem this year was the massive changes at wide receiver. Taylor was targeting running back LeSean McCoy more than anyone on third down, and those 16 targets produced a -10.9 ALEX. In 2016, Taylor's go-to targets on third down were deep threats Marquise Goodwin (+6.2 ALEX) and Sammy Watkins (+7.1 ALEX). Both of those receivers, as well as Robert Woods (+1.4 ALEX), are in the NFC West this year. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2017/2017-alex-midseason-report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, teef said: i just never realized this. so...field goals and defensive tds account for the rest of the points? i know the run game suffered a bit this year, but man. We had 16 passing TD's and 12 rushing TD's. Only one defensive TD. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2017.htm Hauschka hit 33 FG's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maine-iac Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: I'm still pretty shocked we won 4 out of our last 6 because we only scored 7 offensive TD's in that span. That's just a shade of over 1 TD a game. We scored 100 more points last year and still won less games. It's amazing what a defense that makes a few more stops will do for you. We could be even better next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 22 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: I don't think an average QB leads the Bills offense to one of the worst TD outputs in the recent memory. We only scored 28 total TD's on offense. Our 4-12 team in 2010 scored 30. It's not surprising to me at all because consistency is one of the biggest, if the biggest issues with Taylor. Where did he make this argument? He hasn't yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: We had 16 passing TD's and 12 rushing TD's. Only one defensive TD. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2017.htm Hauschka hit 33 FG's. !@#$ing hauschka! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Now tell us about how poorly they did in the Red Zone. (where they don't need a deep threat) 2016 7th, 2017 21st in the league scoring TD's. You have a bad habit of highlighting the good and overlooking the bad transplant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Maine-iac said: We scored 100 more points last year and still won less games. It's amazing what a defense that makes a few more stops will do for you. We could be even better next year. Would you say coaching is the biggest difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: We had 16 passing TD's and 12 rushing TD's. Only one defensive TD. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2017.htm Hauschka hit 33 FG's. 50 + FG's 7 of 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, ShadyBillsFan said: 50 + FG's 7 of 9 you can make an argument that Hauschka is one of the biggest reasons why we made the playoffs. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: Would you say coaching is the biggest difference? Hell yes!!! They are a good reason why we have The Three Amigo's Poyer, Hyde and White!!! 5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: Oh yes, let's give credit to the average defense but not the average QB. The avreage Defense improved. The average QB did not. He regressed! Edited January 3, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy KGB Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 59 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: There usually isn’t context with his posts. It’s generally just raw stats over analyzed. You don’t buy “McDermotts super duper Extra conservative master gameplan” was the reason for not scoring points when up one score ? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Teddy KGB said: You don’t buy “McDermotts super duper Extra conservative master gameplan” was the reason for not scoring points when up one score ? ? I don't Teddy. I also don't buy "Taylor does largely what McDermott wants him to do" argument as well. Remember...don't eat Oreo's while playing cards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 hours ago, xRUSHx said: Miracles happen, too bad it takes a few decades to happen once. Thank God for the D and Cinci. This miracle happened in spite of Tyrod not because of. I will be enjoying the game in Jacksonville watching it live while gladly drinking beer and eating some crow wishing Tyrod isn't forced to be a QB while our D once again carries us to victory. Go Bills Weanwhile the Bills should force Bortles to be a QB. Rather than incompletions and sacks it should produce INTs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yay. Another Tyrod thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maine-iac Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: Would you say coaching is the biggest difference? Definately on defense I would. Rex couldn't stop the run or the pass. McDermott seems very good at pass coverage and until trading Dareus we were good at stuffing the run also. The key is always keeping points off the board. 12 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: Weanwhile the Bills should force Bortles to be a QB. Rather than incompletions and sacks it should produce INTs Can we stop the run well enough to make that work? This is where that Dareus trade may bite us in the butt, this year anyways. Edited January 3, 2018 by Maine-iac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I always think we get in trouble looking at data like this. If third down conversions were the best indicator of qb performance it would be used instead of the passer rating or the qbr. Then when you slice it more and start talking about passing with a lead or while trailing, you get into hot water. If Taylor didn't pass much with a lead it meant he was passing when he was trailing. Since he didn't pass much at all and since he didn't pass with a lead, it means a lot of his passes were trailing in the 4th quarter. (Bills usually passed only when they needed to.) In the 4th quarter he saw prevent defense, which is a defense that gives up first downs in exchange for running the clock. So it makes sense that a qb whose passes come disproportionately late in games he's losing is going to convert third downs. Two years ago, people complained that despite a great rating, Tyrod was bad because he didn't throw over the middle. It was statistical cherry picking. Since 2015 he's been much better throwing over the middle but his numbers are down. Passer rating is the best measure. The best qbs are in the top 10 in passer rating. Taylor was there in 2015, but he's been mired close to 20th since then. Look at 3rd down all you want. Taylor hasn't been good enough. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: I always think we get in trouble looking at data like this. If third down conversions were the best indicator of qb performance it would be used instead of the passer rating or the qbr. Then when you slice it more and start talking about passing with a lead or while trailing, you get into hot water. If Taylor didn't pass much with a lead it meant he was passing when he was trailing. Since he didn't pass much at all and since he didn't pass with a lead, it means a lot of his passes were trailing in the 4th quarter. (Bills usually passed only when they needed to.) In the 4th quarter he saw prevent defense, which is a defense that gives up first downs in exchange for running the clock. So it makes sense that a qb whose passes come disproportionately late in games he's losing is going to convert third downs. Two years ago, people complained that despite a great rating, Tyrod was bad because he didn't throw over the middle. It was statistical cherry picking. Since 2015 he's been much better throwing over the middle but his numbers are down. Passer rating is the best measure. The best qbs are in the top 10 in passer rating. Taylor was there in 2015, but he's been mired close to 20th since then. Look at 3rd down all you want. Taylor hasn't been good enough. My bucket list is to watch a game with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW95 - JA17 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Marrone is watching the Jets and Saints game for the blueprint. Bills are up crap creek if they don't have plan B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maine-iac Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: I always think we get in trouble looking at data like this. If third down conversions were the best indicator of qb performance it would be used instead of the passer rating or the qbr. Then when you slice it more and start talking about passing with a lead or while trailing, you get into hot water. If Taylor didn't pass much with a lead it meant he was passing when he was trailing. Since he didn't pass much at all and since he didn't pass with a lead, it means a lot of his passes were trailing in the 4th quarter. (Bills usually passed only when they needed to.) In the 4th quarter he saw prevent defense, which is a defense that gives up first downs in exchange for running the clock. So it makes sense that a qb whose passes come disproportionately late in games he's losing is going to convert third downs. Two years ago, people complained that despite a great rating, Tyrod was bad because he didn't throw over the middle. It was statistical cherry picking. Since 2015 he's been much better throwing over the middle but his numbers are down. Passer rating is the best measure. The best qbs are in the top 10 in passer rating. Taylor was there in 2015, but he's been mired close to 20th since then. Look at 3rd down all you want. Taylor hasn't been good enough. I know it will seems as though I'm out and out disagreeing with you and I'm not. I will however ask that you look at Buffalo's stats, then go to recieving and look down that list. You have Charles Clay and then you have what? Essentially nobody. Not taking away from Thompson. I've been impressed with him. I am by no means saying Taylor can not be improved upon but from a "helping your QB" standpoint the Bill's did Taylor no favors. To their credit Mathews and KB got injured but essentially I'm saying I look at that list of receivers and say what did they expect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, KW95 said: Marrone is watching the Jets and Saints game for the blueprint. Bills are up crap creek if they don't have plan B. This is why our 2nd half offense was so putrid. The opposing defense makes changes, we can't adapt. We scored 2....just 2 offensive TD's in the 2nd half in our last 6 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts