We Don't NEED Shady to Win - Look at the Stats

[The Frankish Reich]

First: this is not a Lesean McCoy bashing post!*

 

Rushing stats, 2015-17 (McCoy's 3 seasons with the Bills):

 

McCoy: 724 rushes, 3300 yards. That's 4.56 yards per carry.

Every other RB/FB combined (this does not include Tyrod, WR runs, etc): 420 rushes, 1930 yards.  4.60 yards per carry.

 

Obviously, McCoy brings a lot more than running. I think he'll be missed more in the passing game than in the running game. But after 3 seasons, it's obvious that there's more to the Bills running game than just a great back making great plays. You hear it all the time, so often that it's now an NFL cliche: the key to running the ball effectively is, first, committing to running the ball. That's the Bills. The O line is built around guys who are generally better run blockers than pass blockers. We play fullbacks as lead blockers (Felton/DiMarco) more than most teams. Tyrod opens up the running game by being an effective runner himself. There's many reasons, but 3 seasons of being equally effective in the running game with McCoy out as with McCoy in don't lie.  We can run the ball, and that's with such luminaries as Karlos Williams (obviously talented before he smoked/ate himself out of the NFL), Mike Gillislie (in retrospect, a limited talent), Travaris Cadet (imagine Shady if we were 80% as good at everything he does, including catching the ball) and, last Sunday, Mike Tolbert (he does have his value! Just not as much as McD thinks) and a guy signed off the street in Marcus Murphy.  And it's not as if Shady has never been shut down completely either. In fact, Miami seems to have his number.

 

*I love McCoy. He's a joy to watch. But running backs are pretty easily replaceable in today's NFL. See the proof above. This isn't like losing a starting QB, or even losing an elite WR.

[MAJBobby]

We dont hmmm

 

this team is a -57 point differential playoff team. 

 

YES THEY DO NEED THEIR BEST PLAYER 

[The Now Moment]

Look at what Tolbert has done this year so far.  Murphy is a mystery at this point.  You can't bring up numbers involving any other guys.  That's not how it works.  I am not confident without Mccoy and you shouldn't be either.  

Edited January 2, 2018 by Buffalo30

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, Buffalo30 said:

Look at what Tolbert has done this year so far.  Murphy is a mystery at this point.  You can't bring up numbers involving any other guys.  That's not how it works.  I am not confident with Mccoy and you shouldn't be either.  

This year alone:  Shady - 4.0 YPC

All other RBs (Tolbert, Cadet, Murphy) - 4.0 YPC

 

No, these guys are not, even combined in some kind of sci-fi combinator ("the power of Tolbert, the vision of Murphy ..."), any semblance of McCoy. But the results have been uncannily consistent for the Bills running game regardless of who the RB is, wouldn't you admit?

[ProcessTheTrust]

I hear ya, I'm a numbers guy and I can see your point. But the numbers can't capture the situations when Shady comes through. Whether it's a 3rd and long where he turns a 3 yard play into a 20 yard gain, or he catches a tired D off guard and makes a 10 yard run into a long TD...in what could be a FG contest decided by a fluke long run...we are gonna miss us some Shady this week.

[LeGOATski]

The other guys are not game-changers.

 

Yeah, McCoy takes a lot of negative runs. But he also breaks the defense with those electric runs that only he can pull off. It's a whole 'nother game with him out.

 

At least, the Jags may not know what to expect now. There may be some doubt about what the Bills could do to compensate.

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, ProcessTheTrust said:

I hear ya, I'm a numbers guy and I can see your point. But the numbers can't capture the situations when Shady comes through. Whether it's a 3rd and long where he turns a 3 yard play into a 20 yard gain, or he catches a tired D off guard and makes a 10 yard run into a long TD...in what could be a FG contest decided by a fluke long run...we are gonna miss us some Shady this week.

Correct. I'm not throwing out some ridiculous "we're just as good without him as with him" proposition. But losing Tyrod would have been fatal. (Take that, Peterman fans.) Losing Shady? I'd be about as worried about losing Charles Clay, who at this point is absolutely essential to Tyrod's passing game. A blow, but not a fatal one by any means. That's all I'm saying.

[The Now Moment]

4 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

This year alone:  Shady - 4.0 YPC

All other RBs (Tolbert, Cadet, Murphy) - 4.0 YPC

 

No, these guys are not, even combined in some kind of sci-fi combinator ("the power of Tolbert, the vision of Murphy ..."), any semblance of McCoy. But the results have been uncannily consistent for the Bills running game regardless of who the RB is, wouldn't you admit?

Cadet isn't playing anymore man.  He brought those numbers up.  Tolbert had a handful of good plays all year and Murphy had just a handful of plays.  I am all for being positive but this isn't a good argument at all.  Cadet, Gillislee and Williams are gone.  

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, Buffalo30 said:

Cadet isn't playing anymore man.  He brought those numbers up.  Tolbert had a handful of good plays all year and Murphy had just a handful of plays.  I am all for being positive but this isn't a good argument at all.  Cadet, Gillislee and Williams are gone.  

Williams? That's the only guy who essentially had zero success. Look: Tolbert makes a great whipping boy, but he's effective running inside. (Having said that, I think we get zero inside against our old pal Dareus + Malik Jackson + our other old pay Poz, regardless of who's running the ball, including Shady.)  I see no reason to believe that a Williams is better than a waiver wire pickup like Murphy.

[Mrbojanglezs]

Murphy looked decent, and he looked good as a pass catcher. But not having McCoy is killer because Tyrod does not win games with his arm.

[ProcessAccepted]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

Cadet isn't playing anymore man.  He brought those numbers up.  Tolbert had a handful of good plays all year and Murphy had just a handful of plays.  I am all for being positive but this isn't a good argument at all.  Cadet, Gillislee and Williams are gone.  

Agreed on paper this team hasn't a chance without Shady, but I' done writing them off. When we lost the entire receiver crew I thought we were done. When we traded Dareus and couldn't stop the run I thought we were done. I'm all in, playing with the house money just enjoying the ride. We're building something special here and honestly I think they are ahead of schedule.

[The Now Moment]

3 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Williams? That's the only guy who essentially had zero success. Look: Tolbert makes a great whipping boy, but he's effective running inside. (Having said that, I think we get zero inside against our old pal Dareus + Malik Jackson + our other old pay Poz, regardless of who's running the ball, including Shady.)  I see no reason to believe that a Williams is better than a waiver wire pickup like Murphy.

Karlos Williams, the guy you mentioned.  He had no success here when he wasn't fat?  Tolbert can only run up the middle, that's the problem.  Shady can run outside inside whatever.  He's dynamic.  Tolbert isn't going to get to the outside on a stretch play.  Sorry, I completely disagree with what you are saying here.  I think Shady would have a chance to get to the outside and make some noise on the Jags, if he's out, it'll be a long day. 

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, Buffalo30 said:

Karlos Williams, the guy you mentioned.  He had no success here when he wasn't fat?  Tolbert can only run up the middle, that's the problem.  Shady can run outside inside whatever.  He's dynamic.  Tolbert isn't going to get to the outside on a stretch play.  Sorry, I completely disagree with what you are saying here.  I think Shady would have a chance to get to the outside and make some noise on the Jags, if he's out, it'll be a long day. 

Ahh, I thought you were talking about the other Williams. True, Karlos was very talented. But again, why do the backup RBs seem to succeed here? Cadet was another waiver wire pickup. Gillislie too.  And Murphy actually did more vs. the Dolphins than Shady managed to do. There must be something to it, right?

[Royale with Cheese]

14 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

This year alone:  Shady - 4.0 YPC

All other RBs (Tolbert, Cadet, Murphy) - 4.0 YPC

 

No, these guys are not, even combined in some kind of sci-fi combinator ("the power of Tolbert, the vision of Murphy ..."), any semblance of McCoy. But the results have been uncannily consistent for the Bills running game regardless of who the RB is, wouldn't you admit?

 

Shady had 287 carries.

The back up RB's combined for roughly 110 carries.  

Do you think that if any of our back up carried the load, they would still average 4.0 yards a carry?

[The Now Moment]

3 minutes ago, ProcessAccepted said:

Agreed on paper this team hasn't a chance without Shady, but I' done writing them off. When we lost the entire receiver crew I thought we were done. When we traded Dareus and couldn't stop the run I thought we were done. I'm all in, playing with the house money just enjoying the ride. We're building something special here and honestly I think they are ahead of schedule.

So am I man.  I'm mostly positive but to say that this team will be fine without Shady and doesn't need him, I completely disagree with that.  Shady makes up for the majority of our offense, he cannot be replaced with Tolbert and Murphy IMO.

[billsredneck1]

i'm anxious to see what happens. i'm praying shady can go, but if not they gotta make some kind of move.

[jaybee]

We may be OK.  Their D probaby wont stack the box without Shady in there . This opens up some other opportunities, TT draws, J. Webb plays, TE screens and such.  We're going to be OK.

[jahbonas]

16 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

First: this is not a Lesean McCoy bashing post!*

 

Rushing stats, 2015-17 (McCoy's 3 seasons with the Bills):

 

McCoy: 724 rushes, 3300 yards. That's 4.56 yards per carry.

Every other RB/FB combined (this does not include Tyrod, WR runs, etc): 420 rushes, 1930 yards.  4.60 yards per carry.

 

Obviously, McCoy brings a lot more than running. I think he'll be missed more in the passing game than in the running game. But after 3 seasons, it's obvious that there's more to the Bills running game than just a great back making great plays. You hear it all the time, so often that it's now an NFL cliche: the key to running the ball effectively is, first, committing to running the ball. That's the Bills. The O line is built around guys who are generally better run blockers than pass blockers. We play fullbacks as lead blockers (Felton/DiMarco) more than most teams. Tyrod opens up the running game by being an effective runner himself. There's many reasons, but 3 seasons of being equally effective in the running game with McCoy out as with McCoy in don't lie.  We can run the ball, and that's with such luminaries as Karlos Williams (obviously talented before he smoked/ate himself out of the NFL), Mike Gillislie (in retrospect, a limited talent), Travaris Cadet (imagine Shady if we were 80% as good at everything he does, including catching the ball) and, last Sunday, Mike Tolbert (he does have his value! Just not as much as McD thinks) and a guy signed off the street in Marcus Murphy.  And it's not as if Shady has never been shut down completely either. In fact, Miami seems to have his number.

 

*I love McCoy. He's a joy to watch. But running backs are pretty easily replaceable in today's NFL. See the proof above. This isn't like losing a starting QB, or even losing an elite WR.

 

Great point and you are exactly right and should be no surprise - a running game (not runningback) is most often a product of the offensive line.

Our running GAME improved when we changed our bloxking schemes - not when Shady returned or got healthy etccc. I love Shady too and is entertaining to watch but x's & o's its the lines.

 

What millions on this board simply cant even admit is how we make these playoffs with a hard schedule...a defense often giving up 150yrds rushing...lose our top 3 WRs  and a running game that went south due to poor off line coaching scheme.....our QB is most responsible for this team winning 9x in the 15 games he played in.  Forget the 400 yards games...many other qb's would have given up sacks and interceptions with this line allowing pressures and no WR to throw to.  Yes keeping a offense that has nothing from being an absolute disaster ( see Chargers game and Jets finale last year) to being acceptably productive is an accomplishment and should be MVP of this team

[The Now Moment]

3 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Ahh, I thought you were talking about the other Williams. True, Karlos was very talented. But again, why do the backup RBs seem to succeed here? Cadet was another waiver wire pickup. Gillislie too.  And Murphy actually did more vs. the Dolphins than Shady managed to do. There must be something to it, right?

Obviously our offensive line is a run first in terms of blocking.  That does not mean that Tolbert and Murphy can carry all the load.  They may be decent in backup carries but not in carrying the load.  That to me is where you are looking at the stats too much

[BillsFan130]

14 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

This year alone:  Shady - 4.0 YPC

All other RBs (Tolbert, Cadet, Murphy) - 4.0 YPC

 

No, these guys are not, even combined in some kind of sci-fi combinator ("the power of Tolbert, the vision of Murphy ..."), any semblance of McCoy. But the results have been uncannily consistent for the Bills running game regardless of who the RB is, wouldn't you admit?

There is a big difference between being the number 1 back and the backup though.

 

They have the same yards per carry as you mentioned but how many more carries for McCoy vs the rest?

 

And do you think those guys can handle 15 to 20 touches a game each? I don’t.

 

Also, there is a big difference when teams game plan when you’re the starter. When shady is in, the the defence will game plan for him, not the backups of course .

 

The best example I can think of was Karlos Williams. Great backup RB for that year and a half. But when shady missed time and williams was the “bell cow”, he was very ineffective.