H2o Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 Agree with all of that but the injury issue remains. Its why they didnt pick up his option. They want to see him make it though a whole year with minimal injury issues before they sign him long term. And I too agree with that as well. They want to make sure the foot is not a long term issue before they shell out $40,000,000 in guaranteed money to a guy. The 5th year option is also guaranteed if a player is injured once it is picked up, hence the reason they did not pick it up. They still have flexibility as they can use the Franchise Tag which isn't much more than what the 5th year option would have been. If Sammy performs well this year, the foot is not a nagging injury, and nothing else major happens then I expect him to be in a Bills uni for '18 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsmovinup Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 Started his career by playing in 29 of 32 games in the 1st two seasons. You envisioning him having further injuries is based on what? The chest bruise, the hip issue, the ankle problem, the foot issue. All documented on sportsinjurypredictor.com. Definitely a history. Something to be concerned about. Especially the foot. Probably why they didnt pick up year five. The same website predicts an 82% chance watkins will get hurt in preseason. A 32% chance Odell Beckham will get hurt. A 13% chance Mike Evans gets hurt. Guess there are others besides the Bills who see an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 The chest bruise, the hip issue, the ankle problem, the foot issue. All documented on sportsinjurypredictor.com. Definitely a history. Something to be concerned about. Especially the foot. Probably why they didnt pick up year five. Football injuries are nature of the game at the NFL level where guys are going to have to deal with bumps and bruises through the course of a season. Hopefully the 2nd surgery on the foot will put him in a position where he can really showcase his talent in the new offense. I'm sure he will get nicked up again. It's football. It's a physical game. It happens The injury stuff with Watkins is blown way out of proportion. He had a serious foot issue that looks to be fixed. Other then that he's missed 12 games in 3 years. Not great, but not nearly as bad as people here make it out to be. It's simply justification for a new regime in not picking up the option. They bash Watkins because the new regime isn't sure of him. If they picked up the option, not nearly as many people would be killing Sammy. It what we saw fans do for questionable decisions by previous regimes that usually backfired in their faces.... I hope the same doesn't occurs with Watkins. Good thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 I'm sure he will get nicked up again. It's football. It's a physical game. It happens The injury stuff with Watkins is blown way out of proportion. He had a serious foot issue that looks to be fixed. Other then that he's missed 12 games in 3 years. Not great, but not nearly as bad as people here make it out to be. It's simply justification for a new regime in not picking up the option. They bash Watkins because the new regime isn't sure of him. If they picked up the option, not nearly as many people would be killing Sammy. It what we saw fans do for questionable decisions by previous regimes that usually backfired in their faces.... I hope the same doesn't occurs with Watkins. Injuries are common in these freak wideouts, I was just reading Julio had another surgery this offseason is expected to come back as a light participant in camp. Sounded like a bunion on his left foot, I think his Jones fracture was his right foot. Same Doc that did the extensive surgery on his foot and same that did Sammy's I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 I'm sure he will get nicked up again. It's football. It's a physical game. It happens The injury stuff with Watkins is blown way out of proportion. He had a serious foot issue that looks to be fixed. Other then that he's missed 12 games in 3 years. Not great, but not nearly as bad as people here make it out to be. It's simply justification for a new regime in not picking up the option. They bash Watkins because the new regime isn't sure of him. If they picked up the option, not nearly as many people would be killing Sammy. It what we saw fans do for questionable decisions by previous regimes that usually backfired in their faces.... I hope the same doesn't occurs with Watkins. Played through rib injuries, groin injuries, and the hip injury. I remember he sprained his ankle on an awkward catch and missed a game or two. If the foot issue keeps cropping up, it'll be come a big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsmovinup Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 Not to mention that 8 of those 12 games were all in one season. Honestly, I don't like the decision not to pick up his 5th year option. Gives me the feeling they won't pay him even if he stays healthy. If he has a dominant season theyll pay him. Bear minimum theyll tag him. They have to. Who else do they have? Zay Jones hasnt played a down and after him it a bunch of nobodies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 (edited) Really, really intelligent question Rocky. Bravo for adding some meat to the discussion I don't know that I've done this exact deep dive before, so I'll hash it out a bit. I have a few sources for this, but the easiest for comparison's sake is an NFL.com piece on the 2015 season: http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/0ap3000000693785/article/wide-receiver-target-distribution-for-all-32-teams The best source, IMO, is Player Profiler, which shows each WR's rank in terms of target share and HOG rate (which shows a player's percentage of targets per snap): https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/sammy-watkins/#/current-year ^ the downside is that you have to search player-by-player Here's what we can glean: 2015 Opportunity Numbers Sammy ranked 42nd in snap share, 35th overall in targets, 11th in target share, and 31st in targets/snap played Beckham ranked 1st, 7th, 10th, and 14th (respectively) in those same categories Julio ranked 29th, 1st, 2nd, and 1st Antonio Brown ranked 1st, 2nd, 1st, and 6th Mike Evans ranked 34th, 10th, 5th, and 7th 2015 Production Numbers Sammy ranked 36th in receptions, 19th in yards, 9th in air yards, 11th in TDs, 1st in yards/target, and 40th in catch rate Beckham ranked 8th, 5th, 10th, 4th, 19th, and 51st (respectively) in those same categories Julio ranked 1st, 1st, 3rd, 11th, 19th, and 26th Antonio ranked 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 7th, 13th, and 11th Evans ranked 21st, 11th, 7th, 59th, 40th, and 95th As we can see, there's a direct correlation between target rank and rank in both receptions and yards. Now, it's also worth noting that (from the NFL article linked above) Sammy's target share increased to 32% from weeks 9 to 17 of the season--a rate that would've trailed only Julio Jones for target percentage. Not coincidentally, their numbers during that period look like this: Player---Targets----Rec----Yds---TDs---Catch %---TDs Jones------101-------66-----979-----2-------65-----------2 Watkins-----70-------49-----900-----7-------70-----------7 http://nysportsbiz.com/2016/01/04/sammy-watkins-arguably-nfls-top-wr-2nd-half-season/ So, to sum up: Watkins' massive increase in target share in the final 9 games of 2015 is the only reason he's even in the same vicinity as the other WRs in terms of opportunities, and as the numbers show, he routinely does more with his opportunities than the others. Good stuff. Thanks for all the work and analysis. I sure hope we throw the ball more this year. Edited July 25, 2017 by Rocky Landing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cba fan Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 (edited) Agree with all of that but the injury issue remains. Its why they didnt pick up his option. They want to see him make it though a whole year with minimal injury issues before they sign him long term. Agreed and smart Bills move. They want to be assured his problematic foot is healed and not going to turn into Grant Hill/Bill Walton 2.0, career threatening. A non-Billsy move for once. I think they will retain him even if he has other injuries as long as it is not the chronic foot issue or some other severe as in career threatening injury. Edited July 25, 2017 by cba fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 @sammywatkins #kingme moving smooth https://twitter.com/i/videos/tweet/890225731611086848 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Bills Fan Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 @shannshep4 I am also told #Bills WR Sammy Watkins will be 100% ready to go for training camp. (2/2) CBF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted July 27, 2017 Author Share Posted July 27, 2017 @rapsheet #Bills WR Sammy Watkins was not placed on the PUP list to start camp, and he'll practice tonight. A very good sign to begin things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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