Interesting Career Draft Data...

[Big Turk]

I'm working on a football game and I've built what might be the most comprehensive Draft/Combine database of it's kind with over 6,700 players from 1999 to 2017. I've meticulously researched and filled in missing combine data and pro day data when available for players without combine data...

I then went and matched career AV along with a bunch of other ro Football Reference columns to the players and came up with the following(among a bunch of other charts and pivot tables I'm pulling data from).

This is 1999-2015 Career AV data normalized to a 2011 baseline to account for players who are only a few years into their careers.
A few interesting things to note(for these points K,P, FB and LS are not taken into account):

 

http://imgur.com/a/4IMMA (not sure why I can't post a pic here but here is the link to the pic)

• TE's are the most risky position to draft, both in the first round and overall...in 4 of the 7 rounds they have the lowest career AV scores(maybe due to blocking TE's---but that still doesn't explain the 1st round TE busts)
• Surprisingly, QB is the "safest" position to draft in the 1st round, and also has the highest drop off from Round 1 to round 2, losing over half the career AV. Imagine if Drew Brees and his 153 career AV hadn't fallen to the 2nd round---not sure why it only has 31 picks in the 1st round)
• Center's are the safest postiion to draft overall and the safest in 5 of the 7 rounds. If you want to have the best chance of picking a player who is productive in the 7th round, pick a center.
• RB isn't as "dime a dozen" as it appears to be apparently considering it's the 3rd safest postiion to draft in the 1st round and the huge dropoff in productivity from round 1 to 2...second most of any position.
• If you want a good CB, better draft them in the 1st or 2nd round...the chance they are going to be a productive starter really falls off a cliff after that.
• If you draft a TE, SS or WR after the 3rd round, chances are very slim they will be a productive player
• While OT's are the riskiest position to draft on the OL in the 1st round, they also have the smallest drop off from round 1 to round 2. Could teams do better by not wasting picks on 1st round tackles when they can draft another position and then draft a tackle in the 2nd round when you stll have a great chance of finding one of near equal ability.
• Overall, OT's are the 2nd safest pick next to Center's...
• OLB is the safest position to draft in the 1st round on defense, followed by ILB...if you want a safe pick on D in the first round, draft a LB.
• DE is the safest position to draft on defense overall, and there is little difference between one drafted in round 2 thru round 4.

Edited June 15, 2017 by matter2003

[Doc]

The Cheaters didn't lose their 1st rounder in 2001. And even if they had it, they probably wouldn't have used it on Brees and he still would have been a 2nd rounder.

Otherwise an interesting study.

[BarleyNY]

Thanks for the info. Nice work!

[hondo in seattle]

Good info. I wonder how much personnel departments look at this kind of stuff.

 

I would guess there's enough hubris in personnel departments that they don't care about this hardly at all. They're going to draft who they want regardless of what the data shows about the relative success of different positions in different rounds.

Edited June 15, 2017 by hondo in seattle

[jr1]

thanks for researching this. Nicely done

[chef4131]

awesome research, and TY for sharing.

 

I to have done some research and discovered that moving up in the draft to pick JP Losman was not a good decision.......

[Chandler#81]

 

Good stuff! Thanks for sharing your work.

[SoCal Deek]

Very interesting stuff.

 

I think some of the trends you cited may be because the teams themselves do this same sort of research and therefore they end up drafting players that fulfill these preconceptions.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Great stuff!

 

Please repost this next February!!!