Another Fan Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 Kinda actually seems fairly accurate. I mean until we can prove otherwise, I'll always remain cautiously optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
What a Tuel Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 (edited) Has anyone ever kept any of these probability calculations honest and checked their accuracy post season? Edited June 4, 2017 by What a Tuel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iron Maiden Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 As Bills fans, we tend to put down the off season articles predicting a bad season for our favorite team....we denigrate them and brush them off by either attacking the writer or simply going with " he has not paid attention to the moves we've made "..... The problem with all that is those articles have been spot on for 17 years now...they are right and we're not.....I'm tired of being wrong.....I am optimistic with our new staff and I see the playoffs in 2018 but a really bad season this year would be a hard blow to my already fragile confidence..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 As Bills fans, we tend to put down the off season articles predicting a bad season for our favorite team....we denigrate them and brush them off by either attacking the writer or simply going with " he has not paid attention to the moves we've made "..... The problem with all that is those articles have been spot on for 17 years now...they are right and we're not.....I'm tired of being wrong.....I am optimistic with our new staff and I see the playoffs in 2018 but a really bad season this year would be a hard blow to my already fragile confidence..... I don't believe the odds of the Bills making the playoffs are good. But I also don't believe that ESPN has created a good predictive model. Not when it completely ignore coaching changes. That would be like climatologists creating a rough-and-ready weather model that completely ignores ocean currents yet purports to accurately predict the weather. If you want to be accurate, you have to account for all the meaningful variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 I don't believe the odds of the Bills making the playoffs are good. But I also don't believe that ESPN has created a good predictive model. Not when it completely ignore coaching changes. That would be like climatologists creating a rough-and-ready weather model that completely ignores ocean currents yet purports to accurately predict the weather. If you want to be accurate, you have to account for all the meaningful variables. I'll trust Vegas over ESPN all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliBills92 Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 Like I said I dont want to dismiss it......but I wonder if these formula's incorporate the fact that the defense is about to make a scheme change back to when it was 5th best in the league. I totally understand the veteran losses being incorporated into the formula Small detail you forgot is that 7 defensive starters from the top 5 D we had are no longer here. So why would you think switching to a 4-3 again would magically make our D top 5 again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
What a Tuel Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 (edited) Small detail you forgot is that 7 defensive starters from the top 5 D we had are no longer here. So why would you think switching to a 4-3 again would magically make our D top 5 again? Bc we have invested in players that may be able to compensate for those losses. Front 4 are mostly the same in Hughes, K. Williams, Dareus, and now we have Shaq Lawson. You've got Reggie Ragland coming back from an unfortunate injury last year. We have Lorenzo Alexander. Darby to replace Gilmore (McKelvin was #2 CB in 2014). Tre'Davious White is coming in as a rookie, so we will see. I see weakness at safety, but they tried to address in Micah Hyde, but otherwise we have a decent unit in my opinion. Let's see them play in the right system before we say they can't be good. Edited June 4, 2017 by What a Tuel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 Small detail you forgot is that 7 defensive starters from the top 5 D we had are no longer here. So why would you think switching to a 4-3 again would magically make our D top 5 again? but key pieces to that D ARE still here Not really looking for a magical move from the 20's to 5......if they got to 10 you would see a huge difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 but key pieces to that D ARE still here Not really looking for a magical move from the 20's to 5......if they got to 10 you would see a huge difference Oh, good. We have key pieces to the D who gave up 64,421.7 yards in two Miami games and a Pittsburgh game. Color me excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 Oh, good. We have key pieces to the D who gave up 64,421.7 yards in two Miami games and a Pittsburgh game. Color me excited. Well....we also SUBTRACTED some key pieces to our defensive demise last year wouldnt you say? Namely the Ryans and their outdated, no player buy in, having DT's in pass coverage. Lets see Miami run that ball with Ragland in the middle of that D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 I read on the Bills App that one outlet had them finishing 10-6. So until they start playing in games it's anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 I read on the Bills App that one outlet had them finishing 10-6. So until they start playing in games it's anyone's guess. We're a 0-0 team until proven otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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