if no QB is taken in the top 9... do you?

[jeffismagic]

Please say April Fool's!

 

We agree!!

They say that Trubisky's upside is Dalton. Over the last 2 years he has 3 more TDs and 3 more INTs than Tyrod. He has done that with AJ Green (and one year with Jones and Sanu too). If that is his ceiling why is it a good idea?

 

The numbers support this. Again, you can dig through all threads but I went all of the way back to 2002 and looked at every QB drafted. Outside of the top 3 picks it's under a 10% hit ratio.

The person I call in my network told me Trubisky's upside is Matt Ryan. Not a top 5 QB but can slice people up bad with weapons and the right system.

[Kirby Jackson]

We agree!!

 

The person I call in my network told me Trubisky's upside is Matt Ryan. Not a top 5 QB but can slice people up bad with weapons and the right system.

Like anything in scouting, there are different perceptions. http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/02/10/nfl-draft-depth-talent-prospects-notebook

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/playerbreakingnews.asp?sport=NFL&id=12151&line=356598&spln=1

 

Bills GM in love with Deshaun Watson?

.....he had better NOT be the ultimate decision maker.....I'd be damned if I were McCoach and Whaley told me who I will like and be coaching.....

[billsredneck1]

I pull the trigger on Mitch Trubisky and hope for the best. If he busts he busts.

i'm thinking with all the additions they have been making at other positions, maybe they are setting themselves up for the possible scenario of trubisky there at 10.

 

if the jets go qb, i bet it's watson. i suppose obd could be filling other positions now so they can take a receiver at 10 and /or be faced with trubisky being there and not having good enough offers. maybe they are setting themselves up to be able to live with either choice.

[jeffismagic]

Like anything in scouting, there are different perceptions. http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/02/10/nfl-draft-depth-talent-prospects-notebook

 

I’ll be shocked if Trubisky’s not the first one off the board,” said our AFC exec. A scout for another AFC team added, “You’re gonna see the ascension of the Carolina quarterback. He’s the guy, a top-two or -three pick. He’s the guy. A lot of teams like him up there.”

So here’s the question: Are you comfortable taking an Andy Dalton or Teddy Bridgewater in the top five? The truth is, Trubisky’s promise is in offering a team stability—but not necessarily superstardom—at the most important position.

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/02/10/nfl-draft-depth-talent-prospects-notebook

Peter King is a great writer but the answer to his question is NO, you do not draft a QB top 5 who tops out at Dalton or Bridgewater. Now I have seen the Bridgewater comparison but do you honestly believe an NFL team would spend a top 5 pick to draft a guy who THEY thought at best could be Dalton? Someone is off here and I suspect it's King and his assessment.

[Kirby Jackson]

Ill be shocked if Trubiskys not the first one off the board, said our AFC exec. A scout for another AFC team added, Youre gonna see the ascension of the Carolina quarterback. Hes the guy, a top-two or -three pick. Hes the guy. A lot of teams like him up there.

So heres the question: Are you comfortable taking an Andy Dalton or Teddy Bridgewater in the top five? The truth is, Trubiskys promise is in offering a team stabilitybut not necessarily superstardomat the most important position.

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/02/10/nfl-draft-depth-talent-prospects-notebook

Peter King is a great writer but the answer to his question is NO, you do not draft a QB top 5 who tops out at Dalton or Bridgewater. Now I have seen the Bridgewater comparison but do you honestly believe an NFL team would spend a top 5 pick to draft a guy who THEY thought at best could be Dalton? Someone is off here and I suspect it's King and his assessment.

I absolutely think a team would draft that. It's hard t find good QB play. Dalton would be, without question, the best QB that the Browns have had since they came back in the league. He'd be better than any Jags QB since Brunell. What a QB like that does is gives you a chance. There are QBs that you can win with but don't win because of (we have one). Tyrod, Tannehill, Smith, Dalton, Bridgewater (at this point) and maybe 1 or 2 others. You take chances to upgrade from there but you don't go laterally. If you look though at how many QBs have come and gone in the last decade that were lesser QBs than Dalton you'd sign up for that. I listed the QBs drafted in the 1st 2 rounds (after pick 3) since 2006. Dalton is probably only behind Carr and maybe Flacco.

[rayray808]

another thought: for those on the "wait til next year" for a QB train. The only way you guarantee the top choice at a QB is to draft at #1. Any spot after that you are at the mercy of the teams in front of you.

 

not saying the strategy shouldn't be done, just something you need to account for since in this example at 10 you have first crack at a QB.

[Mark Vader]

another thought: for those on the "wait til next year" for a QB train. The only way you guarantee the top choice at a QB is to draft at #1. Any spot after that you are at the mercy of the teams in front of you.

 

not saying the strategy shouldn't be done, just something you need to account for since in this example at 10 you have first crack at a QB.

If you want a QB that you absolutely want and you know that he will not be there when you pick, then you trade up to get that pick.

 

If you have to mortgage future picks.....so be it.

 

That's what the Rams & Eagles did last year.

[jeffismagic]

If you want a QB that you absolutely want and you know that he will not be there when you pick, then you trade up to get that pick.

 

If you have to mortgage future picks.....so be it.

 

That's what the Rams & Eagles did last year.

 

The only reason why teams could trade up is because those QB's were not can't miss.

 

You want can't miss? Then those teams will not let you have those picks.

[Gunsgoodtime]

Draft at 10 in order, Adams, Hoover, Lattimore, Howard, Davis, or Williams

[C.Biscuit97]

It is also a good idea to grab a Tom Brady. The problem that you are ignoring is that MAYBE 1 of these guys will be the franchise guy. Maybe 1 gets to Tyrod's level and 2 flame out. If 3 out of 4 would be an upgrade, go for it!! No one knows which guy it will be. Carr was the 4th QB taken.

A few things, the best games of Tyrod's career were in November and late December. I don't understand how we can say there isn't improvement when his most recent game is his best?

 

It isn't a double standard either. EJ and JP got ripped because they didn't do anything well. Tyrod has a winning record. He isn't perfect but he does enough well that he gets a little more slack than those stiffs (you can throw Trenative in there too). We gave Fitz some slack for the same reason. Pretty good guys and terrible QBs shouldn't be treated the same way.

 

I've posted it on here 1,000 times but over the last 2 years he has been similar to Dalton, better than Tannehill, Smith and Flacco. Again, that isn't great QB play but there was never a time (since at least Bledsoe) where we were getting middle of the road production from a QB.

 

To be clear, I am okay moving on if I saw someone better. I think, at best, one of these guys ends up a better QB than TT. If I knew which one it would be I would pull the trigger. In hindsight, I would have grabbed Dak at 19 and never looked back.

People need to stop with the Dalton stuff. He has missed the playoffs once in his career. He lost his 2nd OC to a head coaching job (not fired), his 2nd and 3rd WRs, and had his all pro TE out for most the season (because you can throw the TE). In one of the worst years of his career, it was basically Tyrod's ceiling.

 

He also missed 4 games in 2015 where he was playing like an MVP candidate for a team that had a real shot at the SB. Do you think TT would ever come close to that?

 

one of the best things Tyrod does is not throw INTs. But when you are among the starters who threw the least amount of passes (TT's career high is lower than any season by Dalton minus the year he got hurt) and don't throw over the middle, what you really doing? I've said all along that Tyrod could have been better this year with much worse stats.

 

Kirby, I agree with you on a lot but you obviously believe in Taylor much more than I do. It's nothing personal. But this is a treading water type move. If Watson is there, I draft him and have an open competition.

 

P.S. I would argue that EJ's Game against the #2 defense in Carolina his rookie year was much more clutch than anything Tyrod has done. But that's a conversation for a different day. Enjoy your weekend.

If you want a QB that you absolutely want and you know that he will not be there when you pick, then you trade up to get that pick.

 

If you have to mortgage future picks.....so be it.

 

That's what the Rams & Eagles did last year.

Yup. And personally, I think Watson is better than both of those guys.

[rayray808]

If you want a QB that you absolutely want and you know that he will not be there when you pick, then you trade up to get that pick.

 

If you have to mortgage future picks.....so be it.

 

That's what the Rams & Eagles did last year.

 

 

 

The only reason why teams could trade up is because those QB's were not can't miss.

 

You want can't miss? Then those teams will not let you have those picks.

 

THIS...

 

let's stay in the timeline I mentioned in the original post:

2008 - Matt Ryan (3) - NO CHANCE Atlanta trades that pick away (Dolphins and Rams at 1 and 2 wouldn't swap either cause they wanted Jake Long/Chris Long)

2009 - Matt Stafford (1) NO CHANCE Detroit gives up that pick when they needed a QB

2010 - Sam Bradford (1) same as above

2011 - Cam Newton (1) same as above

2012 - Andrew Luck (1) same as above

2013 - EJ Manuel (16) we traded up to get him, but was he really a "can't miss guy"?

2014 - Blake Bortles (3) we were at 4 that year

2015 - Jameis Winston (1) Marcus Mariota (2) - both teams were locked in at QB

2016 - Jared Goff (1) Carson Wentz (2) - same as above

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...any of you draft experts see it as feasible to find a partner to trade down to the 20's, grab maybe a 2017 2nd as well as a 2018 1st?.....

[BuffaloHokie13]

...any of you draft experts see it as feasible to find a partner to trade down to the 20's, grab maybe a 2017 2nd as well as a 2018 1st?.....

I took a look about a week ago in another thread. I think the TENN option would be bad, but otherwise here's some trade value stuff including 2018 1st's:

 

Based entirely on the trade chart values:

 

1) TENN gives 1:18 (900) & 2018 1st (420) for 1320

BUF gives 1:10 (1300) & 5:27 (22.6) for 1322.6

Bills Picks: 1:18, 2:12, 3:11, 5:12, 6:11, TENN 2018 1st Round Pick

 

2) ATL gives 1:31 (600), 2:31 (276), & 2018 1st (420) for 1296

BUF gives 1:10 for 1300

Bills Picks: 1:31, 2:12, 2:31, 3:11, 5:12, 5:27, 6:11, ATL 2018 1st Round Pick

 

3) HOU gives 1:25 (720), 2018 1st (420), 3:25 (145), 4:23 (42) for 1327

BUF gives 1:10 (1300) & 5:12 (28.6) for 1328.6

Bills Picks: 1:25, 2:12, 3:11, 3:25, 4:23, 5:27, 6:11, HOU 2018 1st Round Pick

 

4) NYG gives 1:23 (760), 2018 1st (420), 3:23 (155) for 1335

BUF gives 1:10 (1300), 5:27 (22.6), & 6:11 (13) for 1335.6

Bills Picks: 1:23, 2:12, 3:11, 3:23, 5:12, NYG 2018 1st Round Pick

[Kirby Jackson]

People need to stop with the Dalton stuff. He has missed the playoffs once in his career. He lost his 2nd OC to a head coaching job (not fired), his 2nd and 3rd WRs, and had his all pro TE out for most the season (because you can throw the TE). In one of the worst years of his career, it was basically Tyrod's ceiling.

 

He also missed 4 games in 2015 where he was playing like an MVP candidate for a team that had a real shot at the SB. Do you think TT would ever come close to that?

 

one of the best things Tyrod does is not throw INTs. But when you are among the starters who threw the least amount of passes (TT's career high is lower than any season by Dalton minus the year he got hurt) and don't throw over the middle, what you really doing? I've said all along that Tyrod could have been better this year with much worse stats.

 

Kirby, I agree with you on a lot but you obviously believe in Taylor much more than I do. It's nothing personal. But this is a treading water type move. If Watson is there, I draft him and have an open competition.

 

P.S. I would argue that EJ's Game against the #2 defense in Carolina his rookie year was much more clutch than anything Tyrod has done. But that's a conversation for a different day. Enjoy your weekend.

 

Yup. And personally, I think Watson is better than both of those guys.

Nothing personal, you know I like you. We just don't see eye-to-eye on this and we never will. There is a lot of that on here. I hope regardless of what happens we win!! Have a great weekend too!!

[Kemp2Warlick]

take Trubisky unless a trade offer blows your socks off..

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

I took a look about a week ago in another thread. I think the TENN option would be bad, but otherwise here's some trade value stuff including 2018 1st's:

...GREAT research and analysis job bud with my thanks....so we could move sown to a point and possibly grab another 1st in 2018.....like it....

[Dan]

People need to stop with the Dalton stuff. He has missed the playoffs once in his career. He lost his 2nd OC to a head coaching job (not fired), his 2nd and 3rd WRs, and had his all pro TE out for most the season (because you can throw the TE). In one of the worst years of his career, it was basically Tyrod's ceiling.

He also missed 4 games in 2015 where he was playing like an MVP candidate for a team that had a real shot at the SB. Do you think TT would ever come close to that?

one of the best things Tyrod does is not throw INTs. But when you are among the starters who threw the least amount of passes (TT's career high is lower than any season by Dalton minus the year he got hurt) and don't throw over the middle, what you really doing? I've said all along that Tyrod could have been better this year with much worse stats.

Kirby, I agree with you on a lot but you obviously believe in Taylor much more than I do. It's nothing personal. But this is a treading water type move. If Watson is there, I draft him and have an open competition.

P.S. I would argue that EJ's Game against the #2 defense in Carolina his rookie year was much more clutch than anything Tyrod has done. But that's a conversation for a different day. Enjoy your weekend.

 

Yup. And personally, I think Watson is better than both of those guys.

I'm a huge proponent of drafting a QB every year, till you find ..the.. guy. But, with that said, there's almost zero chance that a rookie is going to outplay Tyrod. Opening up a competition for the starting QB spot, would just set this team back further. Draft a guy and let him develop.

[KD in CA]

B, obviously. Unless of course, like every draft not featuring John Elway, you have no idea who the top QB is, in which case you must go for C or A.

[Mark Vader]

 

The only reason why teams could trade up is because those QB's were not can't miss.

 

You want can't miss? Then those teams will not let you have those picks.

Then you go to "Plan B", then "Plan C".

 

Yes, there is that one player that you really want, but you have to have a back-up plan as well.

 

You have to assess every player at every position that you need.