Fadingpain Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 There's always a ton of discussion on this board about passing offense, with people dismissing our passing offense because of the lack of total yards or touchdowns. Statistically, total yards and touchdowns are a pretty bad indicator of success. Chase Stuart did this study in 2012: http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/ ANY/A, NY/A, Passer Rating, and Touchdowns per Attempt are the stats most correlated with winning. Since this is a Bills forum, and Tyrod is obviously going to come up, here's where he ranked the past two seasons: 2016 ANY/A - 18th NY/A - 24th Passer Rating - 18th TD % - 18th 2015 ANY/A - 9th NY/A - 11th Passer Rating - 8th TD % - 13th By these measures, Tyrod was around QB #10 in 2015, and QB #20 in 2016. Don't get too caught up in numbers. Tyrod's overall talent as a passer is near the bottom of the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Woods turned #1... except he was constantly injured. Maybe he officially started 13 game but he sure didn't take snaps like a receiver that started 13 games. In a lot of those he was extremely limited. So I don't know where you're getting this idea that Woods took snaps like a normal #2. He didn't, it really wasn't even close based on that chart. There were numerous times where our top 2 was Goodwin and Powell. Anywhere up to 40% of the time actually, but it was probably slightly less than that. Even if 1/3 of all snaps we were missing Woods and Watkins, you don't think that would have a detrimental effect on ANY quarterback in the league? There were also times where Goodwin was injured in addition to Watkins and Woods. I mean come on, Tyrod isn't a top 5 elite QB, he needs more than that. It's perfectly reasonable to argue that most if not all of Tyrod's drop off from year 1 to year 2 was because of receiver depth. He played 60% of our offensive snaps and missed 3 games. Roughly, doesn't that track him out compared to a guy like Dez who also missed 3 games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Don't get too caught up in numbers. Tyrod's overall talent as a passer is near the bottom of the league. LOL....well there is that hard hitting factual information that should detour folks away from actual numbers He played 60% of our offensive snaps and missed 3 games. Roughly, doesn't that track him out compared to a guy like Dez who also missed 3 games? With a groin injury all year LOL....well there is that hard hitting factual information that should detour folks away from actual numbers With a groin injury all year Oh.....and Dez from Dallas? REally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 LOL....well there is that hard hitting factual information that should detour folks away from actual numbers With a groin injury all year Oh.....and Dez from Dallas? REally? Yeah, Dez broke his foot week 3 and had a concussion. He certainly missed some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 He played 60% of our offensive snaps and missed 3 games. Roughly, doesn't that track him out compared to a guy like Dez who also missed 3 games? I don't see how Dez Bryant's snap count is remotely relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Yeah, Dez broke his foot week 3 and had a concussion. He certainly missed some time. So your comparing Robert Woods to Dez Bryant..... ok And....Coe Beasely would probably be a number 1a for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I don't see how Dez Bryant's snap count is remotely relevant. You said "he sure didn't take snaps like a receiver that started 13 games. In a lot of those he was extremely limited" Except his snap count is pretty close to Dez Bryant's, a WR who started 13 games. And the difference is easily made up considering the fact that Dez was the clear #1 all year, rather than the #2 for half of it like Woods. So your comparing Robert Woods to Dez Bryant..... ok And....Coe Beasely would probably be a number 1a for us You can't follow a conversation. That's okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 the nfl has continuously modified its rules to favor the qb and to a lesser extent the receivers so now we find out qb stats are the biggest determining factor to winning shocking, huh? i wish theyd change the rules back to allow contact with the wrs down the field and tilt the balance back towards the dbs. that would reduce the reliance on qbs and stop the game from becoming so completely one-dimensional so that there were more ways to win than just landing that super qb How far back are you going to the time when the NFL was not dominated by "super QBs"? In the 70's Staubach/Bradshaw/Plunkett dominated the SB. In the 80's it was Montana. The 90's it was Elway, Aikman, Favre, (Jim Kelly), Young. Manning since 2000. It's been a QB league for many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r00tabaga Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Don't get too caught up in numbers. Tyrod's overall talent as a passer is near the bottom of the league. For a "Run Heavy" team missing most of our WRs are you surprised that our numbers are near the bottom of the league??? I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 (edited) There's always a ton of discussion on this board about passing offense, with people dismissing our passing offense because of the lack of total yards or touchdowns. Statistically, total yards and touchdowns are a pretty bad indicator of success. Chase Stuart did this study in 2012: http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/ ANY/A, NY/A, Passer Rating, and Touchdowns per Attempt are the stats most correlated with winning. Since this is a Bills forum, and Tyrod is obviously going to come up, here's where he ranked the past two seasons: 2016 ANY/A - 18th NY/A - 24th Passer Rating - 18th TD % - 18th 2015 ANY/A - 9th NY/A - 11th Passer Rating - 8th TD % - 13th By these measures, Tyrod was around QB #10 in 2015, and QB #20 in 2016. Good info. The pertinent question is did Tyrod regress in 2016 or were circumstances (WR injuries, different OC calling plays, etc) the cause for his fall in the rankings? I tend to think it was the circumstantial stuff. Another question: shouldn't there be a QB ranking system that only uses QB metrics that highly correlate with winning? Both QBR and passer rating are flawed. I realize no system will be perfect. But I think someone can design something better than the systems we have now. Maybe something that uses these three metrics as the core of the system: ANY/A, NY/A, and TD/A. Edited March 13, 2017 by hondo in seattle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 You said "he sure didn't take snaps like a receiver that started 13 games. In a lot of those he was extremely limited" Except his snap count is pretty close to Dez Bryant's, a WR who started 13 games. And the difference is easily made up considering the fact that Dez was the clear #1 all year, rather than the #2 for half of it like Woods. I don't understand what point you're trying to make. Dez played 5% more snaps first of all, and no him being the #1 doesn't make up for it. You literally just said Woods turned into the #1 for most of the year. You're all over the place so I'm gonna bow out of this one. If you think Tyrod had normal time with his receivers compared to other teams, I don't know what to tell you. Look at the chart yourself and make a smart evaluation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsMedia Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 What is TT's greatest asset to the offense? His legs. He's a way better runner than passer. I rest my case. I think you're lost in your own sauce sir, terrible analysis. Wildcat QB? 15,000 posts? Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I think you're lost in your own sauce sir, terrible analysis. Wildcat QB? 15,000 posts? Yikes. 29 RTDs to 17 PTDs, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Tyrod isn't a 2:00 drill kind of QB. He's a guy that extends drives with his athletic ability and keeps you in the game by not turning the ball over. With a top 10 defense he can win double digit games. He's who we have so until there's a better option they're building the team around winning with him. They know he's not a 10 year starter so they'll look to get lucky with a long term answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 By any objective measure, though, Kirk Cousins had a significantly better season than Tyrod. These stats are all adjusted for # of passing attempts: 2016 Cousins ANY/A - 4th NY/A - 3rd Passer Rating - 7th TD % - 16th Comparing QB of such vastly different styles with different coaches and different supporting casts. Apples and oranges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Tyrod isn't a 2:00 drill kind of QB. He's a guy that extends drives with his athletic ability and keeps you in the game by not turning the ball over. With a top 10 defense he can win double digit games. He's who we have so until there's a better option they're building the team around winning with him. They know he's not a 10 year starter so they'll look to get lucky with a long term answer. Kyle Orton was good enough to win double digit games with a top 10 defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Kyle Orton was good enough to win double digit games with a top 10 defense. Exactly. I think we cruise to the playoffs with Tyrod and that same defense if Ryan isn't bumbling around the sidelines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 the nfl has continuously modified its rules to favor the qb and to a lesser extent the receivers so now we find out qb stats are the biggest determining factor to winning Head made of meat, I think you're misinterpreting the OP's citated study. It isn't claiming that QB stats "are the biggest determining factor to winning". It's picking which passing statistics are most tightly correlated to winning. So you can conclude which statistics, of the various passing statistics, correlate to winning But you can't conclude that passing statistics are "the biggest determing factor to winning" eg cause winning. Correlation is not causation Make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 I grabbed Tyrod's game logs from profootballreference and did some quick Excel work with games Sammy played: There's clearly a drop-off from 2015 to 2016 but his season with Sammy in 2016 is better than without him in both seasons. Feels to me like the truth is a mix of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 (edited) I grabbed Tyrod's game logs from profootballreference and did some quick Excel work with games Sammy played: There's clearly a drop-off from 2015 to 2016 but his season with Sammy in 2016 is better than without him in both seasons. Feels to me like the truth is a mix of both. WRT stats its how one looks at them games played, YPC (which I hear is a good indicator) Per profootballreference in 2016, playing 15 games TT had 12 less passing yards with 436 attempts w/o Sammy for those 7 or 8 games compared to 14 games with 380 attempts in 2015 and TT's RAT dropped 10 pt in 2016 per ESPN and 15 points per PFR's advanced passing chart If I am not mistaken, I didn't think Sammy was the only "deep" threat the team had on the roster. So what do we assume? TT is a dink and dunk QB w/o Sammy? Do we back to blaming the playcalling? Edited March 14, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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