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TD's lowball strategy


d_wag

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He runs the risk of having an otherwise solid team with one or two huge holes.  These holes  would prevent the Bills from achieving their goal.  If it was indeed true that PW was willing to take a hometown discount and that TD ignored him, that would be a mistake IMO.  We don't know the real dialogue. 

 

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This is where the smart coaches get their lower-round draft picks to

overachieve and become starters and win games....Look at NE and

Pittsburgh last year....Both had 5th, 6th and 7th rounders playing

and excelling.

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just for those of you who called me out by saying i was baseless in my arguement that TD's style with impending free agents is to lowball them and that the players are just being greedy, here is fact that supports my position.......

 

"The Bills offered an under-market contract to Williams last summer (three years, $11 million, $4 million bonus)."

 

the key number there is bonus money.......4M is pathetic, and shows that the 2007 salary in that deal is likely very high and TD was just looking to dump him after two more years..........if the bonus money was 6 or 7 million big pat likely would have jumped all over that deal, but with no assurance of seeing the last year in the contract, he was smart for rejecting it........

 

after that offer, TD and big pat's agent never talked again, right up to today, when another offer has not been made by the bills........

 

you guys can keep painting big pat "greedy" and "money hungry", but the fact remains TD lowballed him with an offer and then froze him out........is that how you treat a player you want to return to your team and retire with your uniform on? i don't think so........it is disrespectful and just drives a player away from the team.........

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d wag, as you can see from the various responses, a lot of folks view "lowball" (if you want to use this pejorative label on TD's actions) is by far the right way to manage a team in today's NFL.

 

I think your complaint would be stronger is it fit a lot of the facts, but in key ways it doesn't:

 

1. TD has actually been far too generous with some of his deals that Bills fans complain about. How one can classify the give-aways that he has done for players like Bledsoe whom he put too much faith in after a horrid '03 season, the over-payments he has made trying to compensate for poor assessment of the kicking game (Lindell, Hollis, Arians), and simple mistakes like giving Henry Jones and John Holocek more money and then cutting them are simply not the actions of someone who is a tightwad in all cases.

 

2. Actually many of the lowball moves have paid off quite well. The negotiation and investment strategy in the Sam Adams case and in the Takeo Spikes case were proven winners who merited their Pro Bowl selections along with the fact that both were cited in the press as signing for less than their market value (the same as the PW case you cite). Low-balling was great by TD and helped the Bills rather than hurt them.

 

3. TD has a clear record of actually offering players overpayments as deals to take out competition and avoid bidding wars. The Lawyer Milloy deal is a clear example of this and I am glad he overpaid Milloy because the overpayment has been lessened by his performance as one of our leading tacklers and the intellignece and omph he delivered leading to the initial blow-out of a team that became SB champions that year.

 

4. In the immediate case, their clearly are a variety of other options on the burner at LT in case the market takes JJ away (and there is even a reasonable possibility that the LT market in '05 is quite unlike the LT markets that delivered too big contracts to folks like Petitgout and Clifton. It is my hope that the market actually allows us to hang onto JJ for less than the market gave to these two lesser players. It may not, but it is certainly worth the risk.

 

This is also true of PW who simply is not worth $5 million to us at 32, but if the market allows us to get him for less, he seems willing to stay for less than $5 mill and it would be dumb to simply sign him for more right now.

 

So "lowball"? He clearly does not dedicate himself to this in every case and I have no problem with that being his general approach to things except in cases like Milloy where we simply have no other options.

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Personally, I do not see what all the fuss is about. We know that the Bills want PW back -- and we know that he wants to be back. I applaud TD for offering a contract that doesn't mortgage our future -- but at the same time, I can't blame PW and his agent for seeing what he may be able to get out there in free agency.

 

I think, if PW is presented with a fair offer that he will give TD the opportunity to match it. If the offer is outrageous, then I cannot blame him for accepting it -- nor could I blame TD for refusing to match it.

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Close to 4M a year for a 32 year old DT is NOT a "lowball" offer. Actually it was quite reasonable. He could and even still might play with the figures a bit to guarantee a bit more money. Maybe increase SB to 6M.

But at the beginning of last year that was a pretty darn good deal.

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I agree with this.

 

Losing PW wouldn't be the end of the world. In fact if PW isn't signed there is the possibility of picking up a FA who does just as well for the same or less money. While the draft is very important to the success of a team, FA are used to fill the gaps or to get that player you haven't been able to draft.

 

Give Anderson a chance. After all the QB position has been entrusted to a second year player.

 

Personally, I do not see what all the fuss is about. We know that the Bills want PW back -- and we know that he wants to be back. I applaud TD for offering a contract that doesn't mortgage our future -- but at the same time, I can't blame PW and his agent for seeing what he may be able to get out there in free agency.

 

I think, if PW is presented with a fair offer that he will give TD the opportunity to match it. If the offer is outrageous, then I cannot blame him for accepting it -- nor could I blame TD for refusing to match it.

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TD's stratagy of "low balling" has worked pretty well in the past. He makes a guy an offer, they turn it down and he waits him out. On the other hand, he's made offers to others and signed quickly when a large offer was needed. He signed Posey one hour into FA period and despite what many will say, he's worked out decent.

 

We potentially could lose 3 starters out of 22 and have $8 mil in cap space . I wonder how many teams out there will lose less started and have more cap space? I'll be very few!

 

PW probalby makes himself look better too playing on the #2 ranked defense. Anyone plugged into that spot won't likely look too bad. On the other hand JJ has been surrounded by less than average talent and has likely made the other players around him look better. Not that I agree with paying him what he want's considering how much he's been hurt, but I do think we might miss him more than Pw unless we get a good replacement.

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Ahh, the beauty of a cap linked to revenue!!!!

 

Also question for you all. In your mind , who is better Fred Smoot or Nate. In Wilbons column today, said Smoot is looking for around $16M bonus, Skins offering $10M and his agent is basically laughing.

 

So, for all those saying get Nate done now, and I am one, I think this almost precludes getting both JJ and PW done. I mean with 8M cap room, how can we get all three done and still draft?

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WOW! Sadly, with numbers like that, I am thinking that there is a very slim chance of keeping Nate in Buffalo. Another poster stated that the "Franchise Tag" for a CB is 8.81 million.

This is HUGE cash to tie up at the CB spot, wouldn't you say?

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People are fogetting about Ron Edwards. I was very impressed with him at times last year. Maybe there is more to that than I think, and is why TD is not scared to lose PW. I think that between Edwards and Anderson, they have a good compliment to our TRUE clog in the middle.

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WOW! Sadly, with numbers like that, I am thinking that there is a very slim chance of keeping Nate in Buffalo. Another poster stated that the "Franchise Tag" for a CB is 8.81 million.

This is HUGE cash to tie up at the CB spot, wouldn't you say?

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I'd have no problem allocating it to a player like nate......we'd just have to go cheaper on the other side......hopefully TD can find us a few more Terrence McGees in the draft.

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I'd have no problem allocating it to a player like nate......we'd just have to go cheaper on the other side......hopefully TD can find us a few more Terrence McGees in the draft.

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Just read an interesting article, and it could have been here, that said Indy braintrust, both Polian and Dungy, feel the shutdown corner is a thing of the past. They will not spend big money anymore on them, and corner carries with it the highest tag number I believe(maybe QB, not sure). Their thought is new rules make this a completely differant position than it was prior to 04.

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Just read an interesting article, and it could have been here, that said Indy braintrust, both Polian and Dungy, feel the shutdown corner is a thing of the past. They will not spend big money anymore on them, and corner carries with it the highest tag number I believe(maybe QB, not sure). Their thought is new rules make this a completely differant position than it was prior to 04.

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That is an interesting point, although I'm not sure we should follow Indy's lead on defense. :D

 

And of course, don't forget the example provided by New England this past year too. Their defense continued to frustrate great offenses even with extremely untried corners.

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WOW! Sadly, with numbers like that, I am thinking that there is a very slim chance of keeping Nate in Buffalo. Another poster stated that the "Franchise Tag" for a CB is 8.81 million.

This is HUGE cash to tie up at the CB spot, wouldn't you say?

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I think every playre is evaluated differently. We did pay a big signing bonus

to get Takeo Spikes (9+M) and a 25M contract to boot.

 

If TD thinks NC is a good player on the verge of being great he will

pony up the cash to retain him.

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He is old for a DT. TD knows this. You want to become the Dolphins who overpay for aging talent and are now in cap hell.

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Maybe so but I don't know that the way to improve a team is to get rid of its best players. I know that without Pat Williams on the roster, our cap situation is better but our "winning football games" situation is not. I care more about wins than I do capology.

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I haven't really commented on this yet but.....

 

I love Big Pat....he has been a great bill....and for many years I thought he should have been at least a Pro Bowl alternate with his play.....

 

But I did not get that impression last year.....have I totally lost it or does anyone else remember when it used to be PAT WILLIAMS who would get into the backfield and make plays (last year it was Sam Adams)

 

I didn't see a lot of that last year though he was excellent in run support....so basically:

 

- Pat Williams is a undrafted Free Agent who has been very good for the bills

 

- He is also a player that played slightly above average in a contract year....that is NOT a good sign.....

 

- The amount that TD offered him was about right......

 

- HE WAS SUPPOSED TO BE OFFERING US A HOMETOWN DISCOUNT...

 

As long as we dont rely on Edwards to be the full time starter.....I could take him or leave him at this point.....

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I think we'll come out of this fine whether PW flies the coop or not. If he doesn't get the 4m per year offer from another club, he's back with us. If he leaves, we have Edwards-Anderson and a draft pretty deep in DT's. Ellison, Castillo, Anthony Bryant will be there in RD#4 and possibly Bryant in RD#5.

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I think we'll come out of this fine whether PW flies the coop or not. If he doesn't get the 4m per year offer from another club, he's back with us. If he leaves, we have Edwards-Anderson and a draft pretty deep in DT's. Ellison, Castillo, Anthony Bryant will be there in RD#4 and possibly Bryant in RD#5.

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Yeah I agree with Astro, I'm not worried about DT at all. We've got some good talent already on roster, plus its not like we dont still have our Pro Bowl DT starting for us. Edwards or Anderson will come up big, I really believe that.

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