Doug Whaley - The Tim Graham Feature Story

[Mr. WEO]

 

The premise was that the GM isn't strong because he built his roster differently than the way the other NFL teams have built their rosters. Whaley's strength is pro personnel scouting, it's not surprising his roster is built to favor pro personnel. This in and of itself isn't proof he's a bad or good GM, it's proof he builds his roster using his strength.

 

 

You completely misread the article.

 

Graham acknowledges that Whaley IS doing it differently---differently form the most successful teams in the NFL. That was the point of the article.

 

You can't read that and conclude that Whaley and his method are successful.

[Chilly]

 

 

Meh.

 

Graham states that EJ Manuel was the first QB the Bills have ever drafted with their first pick........but that is misleading because they actually TRADED their first pick to move back in round 1 and get the #2 pick they used on Kiko....... and then used the later first round pick they got to select Manuel.

 

So if it is possible to UNDERSTATE how little effort the Bills have put into finding a QB.....how ALL IN they have NOT been......Graham did it.

 

In that time they've drafted like 30 RB/DB with their first pick.

 

True story, bro.

 

Completely agree, the Bills have failed at even trying to get a franchise QB.

 

This, plus questionable depth (like Safety... really?) should be the things Whaley is legitimately getting criticized on.

[Mark80]

The issue are simple. Your draft picks are so much cheaper than FA. That's true for both their rookie contracts and their extensions as many players take less to stay with their original teams than they would on the market. This effect snowballs into your franchising being able to keep more of your better players, rather than let them walk. When you sign FAs, they are more times than not overpriced from the bidding wars, thus rendering you less able to keep your own, cheaper talent. That's why well run franchises make their draft picks work for years. What do we do? We cut Ross Cockrel after two seasons and now he sees significant time on the Steelers.

 

Second, the franchise QB. No, they do not grow on trees, but simple statistics suggest the more times you draft one, the better odds you have a finding a good one. 3 in his time here is, quite simply, unacceptable.

 

Love a lot of stuff that he has done, but these are two glaring areas where he has fallen woefully short.

Edited December 19, 2016 by Mark80

[Chilly]

 

 

You completely misread the article.

 

Graham acknowledges that Whaley IS doing it differently---differently form the most successful teams in the NFL. That was the point of the article.

 

You can't read that and conclude that Whaley and his method are successful.

 

I didn't misread the article, I understand that's exactly what he said. Graham is trying to draw the conclusion that doing it differently is and of itself is a bad thing because winning teams are generally built in a different way. I disagree completely that it's in and of itself a bad thing, and I think you could actually be successful building a roster that way if you made the right personnel decisions.

[baskingridgebillsfan]

^{The article doesn't make any sense . Whaley hasn't made enough drop picks to fit his formula .}

[Chilly]

The issue are simple. Your draft picks are so much cheaper than FA. That's true for both their rookie contracts and their extensions as many players take less to stay with their original teams than they would on the market. This effect snowballs into your franchising being able to keep more of your better players, rather than let them walk. When you sign FAs, they are more times than not overpriced from the bidding wars, thus rendering you less able to keep your own, cheaper talent. That's why well run franchises make their draft picks work for years. What do we do? We cut Ross Cockrel after two seasons and now he sees significant time on the Steelers.

 

Second, the franchise QB. No, they do not grow on trees, but simple statistics suggest the more times you draft one, the better odds you have a finding a good one. 3 in his time here is, quite simply, unacceptable.

 

Love a lot of stuff that he has done, but these are two glaring areas where he has fallen woefully short.

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/

 

Of our top-25 players:

 

17 were drafted by the Bills

4 were acquired cheap by the Bills then extended (Tyrod, Incognito, Hughes, Carpenter)

3 were acquired for big $$$ - Shady, Clay, Justin Hunter (relatively big $$$ contract for a waiver claim).

 

That's not crazy.

[26CornerBlitz]

^{The article doesn't make any sense . Whaley hasn't made enough drop picks to fit his formula .}

 

He must be counting from the time when Whaley joined the Bills under Nix.

[baskingridgebillsfan]

 

He must be counting from the time when Whaley joined the Bills under Nix.

I guess but that is not fair to Whaley. Plus he assumes if a player is on a roster he is a good player. How about a study of teams having success with vet min deals

[stony]

 

I don't think the salary cap is nearly that big of a deal. You do have to work inside of the constraints of it, but Polian talks a lot on Sirius NFL Radio how easy it is to create salary cap room if you need it. He calls it basically a non-factor most of the time.

I haven't heard Polian talk about it, but the easiest way to stay out of salary cap jail is by drafting well. That's always been Polian's MO.

Edited December 19, 2016 by stony

[Peter]

I haven't heard Polian talk about it, but the easiest way to stay out of salary cap jail is by drafting well. That's always been Polian's MO.

Weren't the Colts up against the cap for many years.

[Chilly]

I haven't heard Polian talk about it, but the easiest way to stay out of salary cap jail is by drafting well. That's always been Polian's MO.

 

68% of our top-25 salaried players were drafted by us. Whaley tends to sign cheaper free agents with a couple exceptions.

[Mr. WEO]

 

I didn't misread the article, I understand that's exactly what he said. Graham is trying to draw the conclusion that doing it differently is and of itself is a bad thing because winning teams are generally built in a different way. I disagree completely that it's in and of itself a bad thing, and I think you could actually be successful building a roster that way if you made the right personnel decisions.

 

...but he hasn't.

 

The article makes it clear winning teams aren't doing whatever Whaley is doing. He's not "trying" to conclude that. He IS concluding that.

 

You just keep saying Whaley's way makes him a good GM (note: he's not a "pro player personnel" exec anymore), regardless of the results.

 

That doesn't make much sense.

[baskingridgebillsfan]

does he get any credit for the Vets he brings in on the cheap.

[BisonMan]

Graham makes a classic mistake here. He makes the correlation that having a higher percentage of drafted players on your team CAUSES success. In policy study circles, they'd say he is ignoring a latent variable that is driving both high draft pick roster percentage and success.

 

Teams with franchise QBs have to rely primarily on draft picks because the QB eats up so much cap room. Teams without a franchise QB salary, can afford to have a higher percentage of pro personal on their rosters.Having a top QB is the reason teams have long term success. It drives roster decisions as well.

 

I read an article that said successful school children tended to have more books in their home than other children. Do you suppose the books really had anything to do with it? No, these children had smart/educated parents (who tend to read more) and that's what causes their success. Just filling a room in your house with books won't make your kid a better student.

 

Just having your roster filled with draft picks won't consistently get you to the playoffs. Having a Franchise QB will.

[Chilly]

 

...but he hasn't.

 

The article makes it clear winning teams aren't doing whatever Whaley is doing. He's not "trying" to conclude that. He IS concluding that.

 

You just keep saying Whaley's way makes him a good GM (note: he's not a "pro player personnel" exec anymore), regardless of the results.

 

That doesn't make much sense.

 

I haven't once said in this thread that Whaley's way made him a good GM, what I said is that his strength is pro personnel scouting. What I am doing is arguing that Tim Graham is making a classic "correlation = causation" mistake in this article.

 

IMO, Whaley's failings as GM have WAY more to do with not being able to find a franchise QB than it does the mix of FA and draft picks on the roster.

[Mark80]

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/

 

Of our top-25 players:

 

17 were drafted by the Bills

4 were acquired cheap by the Bills then extended (Tyrod, Incognito, Hughes, Carpenter)

3 were acquired for big $$$ - Shady, Clay, Justin Hunter (relatively big $$$ contract for a waiver claim).

 

That's not crazy.

 

So that's are starters. You get cheap depth thru drafting which we lack severely. Why do you think these injuries hurt so bad? We are constantly playing dudes off the street, sometimes from the week before.

Edited December 19, 2016 by Mark80

[stony]

Weren't the Colts up against the cap for many years.

 

If you had a potential GOAT at QB, why wouldn't you go for it every year?

[Peter]

 

If you had a potential GOAT at QB, why wouldn't you go for it every year?

 

If you have that guy yes.

[Mr. WEO]

 

I haven't once said in this thread that Whaley's way made him a good GM, what I said is that his strength is pro personnel scouting. What I am doing is arguing that Tim Graham is making a classic "correlation = causation" mistake in this article.

 

IMO, Whaley's failings as GM have WAY more to do with not being able to find a franchise QB than it does the mix of FA and draft picks on the roster.

 

 

Graham is saying not that "doing nit different" is "of itself" wrong. Again, he is saying the way Whaley assembled the roster is not consistent with the way winning teams are assembled. It's a very simple point he's making. Whaley's way isn't a winning formula.

 

Whaley is no genius at bringing in FA;s. He has to because his draft picks don't stick to the roster.

[Fixxxer]

Good to know other NFL rosters don't have holes.