Bleeding Bills Blue Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/803302188093161472/photo/1 Not sure what this means - but it looks like they have us as the 9th best team in the league - and higher super bowl odds than 21 other teams. They also thought Hillary wins in a landslide - so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beef Jerky Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 So we will win the popular vote while not making the playoffs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 So we will win the popular vote while not making the playoffs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 So we will win the popular vote while not making the playoffs? :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 I thought 538 was the only poll predicting trump winning? Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoFFacet Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 (edited) https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/803302188093161472/photo/1 Not sure what this means - but it looks like they have us as the 9th best team in the league - and higher super bowl odds than 21 other teams. They also thought Hillary wins in a landslide - so who knows. False, they had DJT at 3/10 odds due to the large number of undecided poll respondents and the possibility of polling error. The occurrence of a 30% outcome is not so unlikely that it casts doubt on the model's method. Also, while their poll aggregation model of the election is a relatively unique approach, an ELO model of a competitive sports environment is... not. The most accurate way to interpret that page is that an ELO model would assess the league in that way, today. Not that 538 is definitively declaring the Chiefs to be the 2nd best team or the Bills #9, etc. Edited November 28, 2016 by SoFFacet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted November 28, 2016 Author Share Posted November 28, 2016 False, they had DJT at 3/10 odds due to the large number of undecided poll respondents and the possibility of polling error. The occurrence of a 30% outcome is not so unlikely that it casts doubt on the model's method. Fair enough. But either way - for some reason their deep statistical analysis lists us as a top 10 football team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 I thought 538 was the only poll predicting trump winning? 538 said Hillary would win but they gave Trump a 35% chance which was higher than any other poll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoFFacet Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Fair enough. But either way - for some reason their deep statistical analysis lists us as a top 10 football team. ELO isn't deep statistics. All that happens is that your rating goes up and down based on the ratings of the teams that you win and lose against. ELO is weak against temporary fluctuations in strength such as injury and suspension, but over/under-inflated ratings are eventually ironed out as more outcomes are added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ They had his odds of winning at 28 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iinii Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 538 said Hillary would win but they gave Trump a 35% chance which was higher than any other poll. Just goes to show how well polls work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Just goes to show how well polls work. thats better than 1-3 odds. thats not unreasonable to be on the wrong side of occasionally (roughly 1 in 3 times) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSBill Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 What was it Mark Twain said? "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GRHater69 Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Does this mean if we make the playoffs I can start a go fund me page for a recount? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 538 has the Bills and Raiders with virtually identical ELO scores. Should be a dog fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted November 28, 2016 Author Share Posted November 28, 2016 Just goes to show how well polls work. Considering i get like 50 extra phone calls during polling season, and ignore every one. I'd have to say it can't be THAT effective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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