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FiveThirtyEight Rankings


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https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/803302188093161472/photo/1

 

Not sure what this means - but it looks like they have us as the 9th best team in the league - and higher super bowl odds than 21 other teams.

 

They also thought Hillary wins in a landslide - so who knows.

 

False, they had DJT at 3/10 odds due to the large number of undecided poll respondents and the possibility of polling error. The occurrence of a 30% outcome is not so unlikely that it casts doubt on the model's method.

 

Also, while their poll aggregation model of the election is a relatively unique approach, an ELO model of a competitive sports environment is... not. The most accurate way to interpret that page is that an ELO model would assess the league in that way, today. Not that 538 is definitively declaring the Chiefs to be the 2nd best team or the Bills #9, etc.

Edited by SoFFacet
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False, they had DJT at 3/10 odds due to the large number of undecided poll respondents and the possibility of polling error. The occurrence of a 30% outcome is not so unlikely that it casts doubt on the model's method.

 

Fair enough. But either way - for some reason their deep statistical analysis lists us as a top 10 football team.

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Fair enough. But either way - for some reason their deep statistical analysis lists us as a top 10 football team.

 

ELO isn't deep statistics. All that happens is that your rating goes up and down based on the ratings of the teams that you win and lose against. ELO is weak against temporary fluctuations in strength such as injury and suspension, but over/under-inflated ratings are eventually ironed out as more outcomes are added.

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