Updated (SEA) Bills 2016 Drop rate and Bad Pass Rate

[MAJBobby]

Ok Maj I will gladly accept your stats if you will accept mine

 

TT has 2 INT. Tied with Sam Bradford, Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson for league low by QB's who have played the majority of their teams games. Most have 4 and as many as 11 INT's. If you will, that means that anywhere from 2-9 of these other QB's "Bad Throws" end in interceptions not just incompletions.

 

If I agree three and out's are bad would you agree turnovers are worse aside from the mythical 50 yard INT on third and twenty?

 

And how about QBR? TT is 8th in QBR. Ahead of Rivers, Luck, Dalton, Carr, and a host of other players. Yes he is a long way away from Brady's league leading QBR but so is everyone else.

 

Add his running ability which is elite and usually ends up in one great play a game - TD run last week , third and forever against the Cardinals - and it makes up for a missed throw or two a game.

 

I will concede his deep throws this year have been dreadful - missed wide-open Woods for an easy score against Rams is the worst example. He doesn't step up in the pocket as much as I like. Wilson and Brees do and they are the same height. He can do better.

 

But he extends plays as well as any QB in the league. I would argue as other have that he needs to just run when he does that. Example last week he flipped the ball to Gillislee on third down and he was stopped a yard short of first down marker. He should have ran that and turned Gillislee into a blocker. He would have gotten the first down.

 

Add a healthy Watkins and this season is significantly different. Excuse - yes. Fact - yes.

I talked about turnovers. Easy to limit them when you dont make the riskier throws correct?

 

I get QBR, i still hate the stat because IMO it gives unequal weight to a QB that can run the ball.

 

Also i made this thread and will keep it going because i keep hearing the WR are bad and such, fact is they have 7 total drops. Brandon Marshall has 6 himself and people will say he is better than the WR we have out there now.

 

So cant keep the excuses going to try and hide from him not being that great.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I talked about turnovers. Easy to limit them when you dont make the riskier throws correct?

 

I get QBR, i still hate the stat because IMO it gives unequal weight to a QB that can run the ball.

 

Also i made this thread and will keep it going because i keep hearing the WR are bad and such, fact is they have 7 total drops. Brandon Marshall has 6 himself and people will say he is better than the WR we have out there now.

 

So cant keep the excuses going to try and hide from him not being that great.

 

Just needs to do a better job of taking what they give you. If they give you deep shots, go ahead and take them. But i doubt deep stuff is open when you're down 3 scores vs. new england. He was trying to drop dimes between the corner safety and sideline. Your chance that it be incomplete is so high it isn't worth the risk.

 

Very rarely are there no high safeties (situation where you absolutely can throw deep because the ball can float inside or outside shoulder and you still don't have the chance of int's). And very rarely are we taking these on 1st and 2nd downs (when they may anticipate a run or when we can execute PA). We're chucking it deep on 3rd and 3 with an easy first down in front of us.

 

Know the down and distance, know the stakes, and pick your battles. Run more if it means more first downs. Which will probably mean more points and TOP.

[MAJBobby]

 

Just needs to do a better job of taking what they give you. If they give you deep shots, go ahead and take them. But i doubt deep stuff is open when you're down 3 scores vs. new england. He was trying to drop dimes between the corner safety and sideline. Your chance that it be incomplete is so high it isn't worth the risk.

 

Very rarely are there no high safeties (situation where you absolutely can throw deep because the ball can float inside or outside shoulder and you still don't have the chance of int's). And very rarely are we taking these on 1st and 2nd downs (when they may anticipate a run or when we can execute PA). We're chucking it deep on 3rd and 3 with an easy first down in front of us.

 

Know the down and distance, know the stakes, and pick your battles. Run more if it means more first downs. Which will probably mean more points and TOP.

Yes run more, take the ball out of your QB hand. And that is the QB people want to go forward with. His own advocates are saying throw less. And they want him going forward. Illogical to me

[BarleyNY]

Ok i can get there with you. But unlike this summer i want real competition or him in the form of a top end draft pick.

I just feel that is his option his picked up they will go the route they did this offseason and get no competition for him. Then delaying the inevitable (not good enough at QB) another year.

***still dont like rewarding his bad play by picking up his option, but i think you are correct if Rex stays so does Tyrod (good, bad or indifferent). Personally, Rex should not have a say here, but think he will***

Looking at his contract Tyrod has huge guarantees - $40.5M in total - that kick in on the 3rd day of the next league year when his option is due. $15.5M option bonus, $12M guaranteed salary in 2017 and $13M of his 2018 salary becomes guaranteed. He's going to be kept at least two more seasons unless the team moves on after this one.

 

There are a few options in that situation. In the unlikely event that a better option at QB can be found in the first couple days of free agency, then the Bills can move on without being on the hook for any additional cap or money hit. Or they could commit to keeping Tyrod for the next two seasons as a bridge while they try to find the long term answer. Lastly, if Rex and Whaley are fired (also unlikely at this point IMO) then I see the team moving on from Taylor. A new coach and GM are going to want to find their guy and keeping Taylor on the team would cause too much controversy.

[Dorkington]

Ok Maj I will gladly accept your stats if you will accept mine

 

TT has 2 INT. Tied with Sam Bradford, Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson for league low by QB's who have played the majority of their teams games. Most have 4 and as many as 11 INT's. If you will, that means that anywhere from 2-9 of these other QB's "Bad Throws" end in interceptions not just incompletions.

 

If I agree three and out's are bad would you agree turnovers are worse aside from the mythical 50 yard INT on third and twenty?

 

 

 

To touch on turnovers vs punting... I think averages on drives tell us a lot about a team's ability to control a game. (I'm aware this isn't all on Tyrod, but lets face it, our run game is pretty good on average)

 

Bills offense:

2nd in TO%

9th pts per drive

12th in Score%

21st in plays per drive

19th in yards per drive

23rd in time per drive

 

Defense:

25th in time per drive

16th in yards per drive

 

I don't have facts to back this up, but the above to me points to an unsustainable way of winning, if we aren't controlling possession and maintaining drives, the defense will wear out as the game continues, making it more difficult for us to win. Scoring quickly is nice, but the downside is, it puts a lot of pressure on our defense to end the opposition's drives quickly, as well. Frankly, I'd rather we risk a couple more turnovers if it means we sustain more drives at the same time.

[Nihilarian]

While I agree that Tayor isn't an ideal pocket QB and will throw some bad passes. I also contend that better receivers find a way to catch that not so accurate ball and will find ways to get open more often.

 

I watched the Patriots game closely and noted each pass. That first overthrown pass to Hunter hit him in his hands are he was reaching up to catch it. It looked like it could have been caught and instead it's listed as overthrown. It was also raining pretty good at that time.

 

Out of around 20 errant throws in that game, I noted around 7 actual bad passes off the mark enough so they couldn't have been caught. There were a lot of throw-aways due to heavy pass rush pressure from NE. Walter Powell was the Bills leading receiver in that game and it looked like the Patriots defender was interfering with him on every pass to him. Yet, only one or two penalties were called on him.

 

Robert Woods had issues with his foot and was ineffective in making his cuts so passes to him also looked errant. Charles Clay had a couple of drops and must have been dinged up because I had thought he was better than what he showed.

 

The bottom line here is Taylor shouldn't be forced to try and win the game with his arm and 38 passes vs 26 rushing attempts is unacceptable. Rex Ryan said it himself that this team must run the ball to win games. Even when behind in points if the team kept running it as it plays keep away from the opponent and also keeps the Bills defense fresh and on the bench. Meanwhile running 30-40 rushes a game wears out the defense which allows for bigger plays and gains in the 4th quarter.

 

I'm not excusing Tyrod for some bad play because he had some bad throws and missed some opportunities. But then I'm also not excusing that defense that played so poorly and was eaten alive by Tom Brady. Nor am I excusing the offensive play calling that had Taylor throwing 38 times to some not very good NFL receivers and especially when Gillislee was averaging 7.1 YPC while seeing only 12 rushes. By the same token, Jon Williams was averaging 2.4 yards per rush and saw the ball 5 times.

 

If Tayor fails to develop further and doesn't start seeing the field better than by all means, don't pay him at the end of the season and draft a QB in the first or second round.

Edited November 1, 2016 by Nihilarian

[MAJBobby]

While I agree that Tayor isn't an ideal pocket QB and will throw some bad passes. I also contend that better receivers find a way to catch that not so accurate ball and will find ways to get open more often.

 

I watched the Patriots game closely and noted each pass. That first overthrown pass to Hunter hit him in his hands are he was reaching up to catch it. It looked like it could have been caught and instead it's listed as overthrown. It was also raining pretty good at that time.

 

Out of around 20 errant throws in that game, I noted around 7 actual bad passes off the mark enough so they couldn't have been caught. There were a lot of throw-aways due to heavy pass rush pressure from NE. Walter Powell was the Bills leading receiver in that game and it looked like the Patriots defender was interfering with him on every pass to him. Yet, only one or two penalties were called on him.

 

Robert Woods had issues with his foot and was ineffective in making his cuts so passes to him also looked errant. Charles Clay had a couple of drops and must have been dinged up because I had thought he was better than what he showed.

 

The bottom line here is Taylor shouldn't be forced to try and win the game with his arm and 38 passes vs 26 rushing attempts is unacceptable. Rex Ryan said it himself that this team must run the ball to win games. Even when behind in points if the team kept running it, it plays keep away from the opponent and also keeps the Bills defense fresh and on the bench. Meanwhile running 30-40 times a game wears out the defense which allows for bigger plays and gains in the 4th quarter.

 

I'm not excusing Tyrod for some bad play because he had some bad throws and missed some opportunities. But then I'm also not excusing that defense that played so poorly and was eaten alive by Tom Brady. Nor am I excusing the offensive play calling that had Taylor throwing 38 times to some not very good NFL receivers and especially when Gillislee was averaging 7.1 YPC while seeing only 12 rushes. By the same token, Jon Williams was averaging 2.4 yards per rush and saw the ball 5 times.

Yeah I mean god forbid we actually want our Franchise QB to win us a game

[dave mcbride]

I don't see Tyrod's #s improving against Seattle's defense in Seattle ...

[moshermw]

What competition did you want them to bring? Clearly the FO didn't like Lynch enough to pick him over Lawson, and clearly they liked Cardale enough to take him as future competition. I'm certainly biased towards Tyrod for many reasons, but even I am happy to admit that at this point (and even at the draft) I liked him as the short term (2-3 year) bridge and I like Cardale (or another prospect from this or next year) as the long term solution.

 

As a TT and VT homer I agree with this with the following added thoughts:

 

- Sam Bradford last night - most would say he's a better pure passer than TT. With shaky protection not even Bradford was effective with better WR than TT has had in most of our games

 

- NFL passing is all about talent and timing. TT doesn't throw people open as well as others but he's also had a different package of WR every week - tough to develop timing and chemistry.

 

- Only a cheerleading ironic fact but like to point it out when folks smut TT. The prevailing thought is that mobile QB's are not a good option because they inevitably get hurt. TT is the only skill player on this Bills team that has taken nearly every snap - and he handles the ball on every play. He's a tough, smart guy and by all accounts a great leader.

 

- Maybe not gonna carry the team on his back to the SB but the Bills are lucky to have TT until Jim Kelly II shows up.

[Nihilarian]

Yeah I mean god forbid we actually want our Franchise QB to win us a game

He just isn't that type of QB just yet and either is EJ. Some players like Joe Flacco, who was a first-round pick went on to develop into that solid pocket passer after two seasons. Some players are more of a project and take longer to develop.

 

Clearly, Colin Kaepernick is a bigger, stronger version of Tyrod Taylor and yet I'd rather have Taylor at this point. RG3 was the second overall pick that cost the Redskins a ton of picks and he failed to develop into that supreme pocket passer too.

 

Taylor showed so much more promise last year when he had Sammy Watkins, Percy Harvin, Chris Hogan to throw to. This year he has had a cast of scrubs and the decent receivers have been injured. I think there is still time and room for Tyrod to perhaps develop into a Russell Wilson. Who BTW, is having great difficulty himself this year with a worse O-line and no Marshawn Lynch.

[MAJBobby]

He just isn't that type of QB just yet and either is EJ. Some players like Joe Flacco, who was a first-round pick went on to develop into that solid pocket passer after two seasons. Some players are more of a project and take longer to develop.

 

Clearly, Colin Kaepernick is a bigger, stronger version of Tyrod Taylor and yet I'd rather have Taylor at this point. RG3 was the second overall pick that cost the Redskins a ton of picks and he failed to develop into that supreme pocket passer too.

 

Taylor showed so much more promise last year when he had Sammy Watkins, Percy Harvin, Chris Hogan to throw to. This year he has had a cast of scrubs and the decent receivers have been injured. I think there is still time and room for Tyrod to perhaps develop into a Russell Wilson. Who BTW, is having great difficulty himself this year with a worse O-line and no Marshawn Lynch.

I got it sorry I would like some progression (not regression) in 5 working on 6th NFL season. Guess I am asking for to much

Edited November 1, 2016 by MAJBobby

[Reed83HOF]

Ok Maj I will gladly accept your stats if you will accept mine

 

TT has 2 INT. Tied with Sam Bradford, Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson for league low by QB's who have played the majority of their teams games. Most have 4 and as many as 11 INT's. If you will, that means that anywhere from 2-9 of these other QB's "Bad Throws" end in interceptions not just incompletions.

 

If I agree three and out's are bad would you agree turnovers are worse aside from the mythical 50 yard INT on third and twenty?

 

And how about QBR? TT is 8th in QBR. Ahead of Rivers, Luck, Dalton, Carr, and a host of other players. Yes he is a long way away from Brady's league leading QBR but so is everyone else.

 

Add his running ability which is elite and usually ends up in one great play a game - TD run last week , third and forever against the Cardinals - and it makes up for a missed throw or two a game.

 

I will concede his deep throws this year have been dreadful - missed wide-open Woods for an easy score against Rams is the worst example. He doesn't step up in the pocket as much as I like. Wilson and Brees do and they are the same height. He can do better.

 

But he extends plays as well as any QB in the league. I would argue as other have that he needs to just run when he does that. Example last week he flipped the ball to Gillislee on third down and he was stopped a yard short of first down marker. He should have ran that and turned Gillislee into a blocker. He would have gotten the first down.

 

Add a healthy Watkins and this season is significantly different. Excuse - yes. Fact - yes.

 

Really have watch using QBR as any meaningful stat. As you pointed out look at those he is above and the ones he is right under - does that really pass the eye test?

[MAJBobby]

 

Really have watch using QBR as any meaningful stat. As you pointed out look at those he is above and the ones he is right under - does that really pass the eye test?

It doesn't. Look at his Run QBR adjustment. It almost says doesn't matter if you cant throw if you can run it is just the same. Give WAY TO MUCH of adjustment for a Running QB. And was developed as a Way for ESPN to keep pushing the Vicks, RG3s Kaepernicks as good QBs

Edited November 1, 2016 by MAJBobby

[moshermw]

I got it sorry I would like some progression (not regression) in 5 working on 6th NFL season. Guess I am asking for to much

TT never started a game for the Ravens and only attempted 37 passes until 2015. Right answer is it's more than 1.5 seasons but it's not 6 - that's crazy talk.

 

And how many of his 22 Bills starts has he had at least 1 pro bowl prospect WR on the field ? less than 10 ?

[Reed83HOF]

He just isn't that type of QB just yet and either is EJ. Some players like Joe Flacco, who was a first-round pick went on to develop into that solid pocket passer after two seasons. Some players are more of a project and take longer to develop.

 

Clearly, Colin Kaepernick is a bigger, stronger version of Tyrod Taylor and yet I'd rather have Taylor at this point. RG3 was the second overall pick that cost the Redskins a ton of picks and he failed to develop into that supreme pocket passer too.

 

Taylor showed so much more promise last year when he had Sammy Watkins, Percy Harvin, Chris Hogan to throw to. This year he has had a cast of scrubs and the decent receivers have been injured. I think there is still time and room for Tyrod to perhaps develop into a Russell Wilson. Who BTW, is having great difficulty himself this year with a worse O-line and no Marshawn Lynch.

 

The problem (if you will) is those players were able to haul in bad passes. He hangs WRs out to dry, injuries are part of a game, but he puts his players in harms way and causes some injuries due to his ball placement. Why don't you see other WRs getting injured and dinged up so much? Ball placement keeps them away from the hits and allows them to get YAC....

[MAJBobby]

TT never started a game for the Ravens and only attempted 37 passes until 2015. Right answer is it's more than 1.5 seasons but it's not 6 - that's crazy talk.

 

And how many of his 22 Bills starts has he had at least 1 pro bowl prospect WR on the field ? less than 10 ?

Has he been in the NFL for 5 now 6 seasons. Meaning How many Offseasons has he had to show some sign of progression? Heck even from 1 season to this season there is regression. I see Taylor needs Probowlers around him to be good. Where as legit QBs can make other players around them look better

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Yes run more, take the ball out of your QB hand. And that is the QB people want to go forward with. His own advocates are saying throw less. And they want him going forward. Illogical to me

 

Typically I'd agree. But when your playmaker's aren't that good, and he's a very dynamic running threat, he may actually be the best open field threat we have on the team.

 

The problem (if you will) is those players were able to haul in bad passes. He hangs WRs out to dry, injuries are part of a game, but he puts his players in harms way and causes some injuries due to his ball placement. Why don't you see other WRs getting injured and dinged up so much? Ball placement keeps them away from the hits and allows them to get YAC....

 

I see it to a point, but people get injured all the time in the NFL. The playing surface is probably responsible for as many injuries as hard hits and stuff. That and all the muscle strains, pulls, and tears that happen.

Edited November 1, 2016 by dneveu

[quinnearlysghost88]

also, tyrod has one drop on Sunday from that pass by Reggie Bush, so let's pile it on. guy can't even catch.

[Reed83HOF]

 

Typically I'd agree. But when your playmaker's aren't that good, and he's a very dynamic running threat, he may actually be the best open field threat we have on the team.

 

I see it to a point, but people get injured all the time in the NFL. The playing surface is probably responsible for as many injuries as hard hits and stuff. That and all the muscle strains, pulls, and tears that happen.

 

I think overall people want better QB play, but he is the best we have right now. I also don't think anyone views him as a franchise QB. It kinda is what it is.

[Alphadawg7]

Ok, Numbers updated to include the NE Game (3 Drops, 13 Bad passed from the NE Game.)

Powell had 1 Drop

Tate had 1 Drop

Clay had 1 Drop

Bills have logged a total of 7 drops. (Had 15 drops last year)

Ok here is the WRs that actually dropped a pass and their drop rate for the Bills WRs.

Woods - TGTs (44), Catches (29), Drops (2), Drop % (4.6%), Catch % (65.9%)

Powell - TGTs (23), Catches (12), Drops (2), Drop % (8.7%), Catch % (52.2%)

Watkins - TGTs (11), Catches (6), Drops (1), Drop % (9.1%), Catch % (54.5%)

Tate - TGTs (5), Catches (4), Drops (1), Drop % (20%), Catch % (80%)

Clay - TGTs (42), Catches (26), Drops (1), Drop % (2.4), Catch % (61.9%)

Here are the rates for the Players that have not logged a drop to date.

 

Salas - TGTs (6), Catches (4), Drops (0), Drop % (0), Catch % (66.7%)

O'Leary - TGTs (8), Catches (7), Drops (0), Drop % (0), Catch % (87.5%)

Bush - TGTs (6), Catches (3), Drops (0), Drop % (0), Catch % (50.0%)

Hunter - TGTs (13), Catches (5), Drops (0), Drop % (0), Catch % (38.5%)

Goodwin - TGTs (32), Catches (12), Drops (0), Drop % (0), Catch % (37.5%)

Felton - TGTs (5), Catches (3), Drops (0), Drop % (0), Catch % (60.0%)

McCoy - TGTs (23), Catches (20), Drops (0), Drop % (0), Catch % (87.0%)

Gillislee - TGTs (7), Catches (6), Drops (0), Drop % (0), Catch % (85.7%)

http://www.sportingc...ats/drops/2016/

Tyrod Taylor is ranked as having the 13th lowest drop rate by his WRs. (of starters)

7 drops out of 230 attempts - with a 3.04% drop rate effecting him. - 2016

Last Year 13 Drops out of 380 attempts with a 3.42% drop rate effecting him

http://www.sportingc...arterback/2016/

Now on Flip side he also has the Highest bad pass % in the NFL.

56 bad passes in 230 attempts. for a 24.35% bad pass rate

Last year - 67 bad passes in 380 attempts for a 17.63% (better than this year)

http://www.sportingc...ercentage/2016/

 

Here is the one thing about this data that makes it hard to rely on...WR errors and bad routes. We have an absolutely terrible cast of WRs right now and have most the season. Woods is terrible too, so please no one defend this guy who can't even keep his feet, get separation, or fight for a ball. His best attribute is blocking...which is a terrible thing to say about your #1 WR (or even #2 WR which is what he is really supposed to be).

 

There have been many times I have been screaming at the TV this season when guys like Clay just dog the route like they were jogging. I have seen Goodwin jogging on go routes so the ball gets grossly over thrown. I have seen WR's run the wrong direction to where the ball was thrown, so who made the mistake in that case...TT or the WR.

 

TT definitely needs to be better, so not making this some kind of excuse for him, but don't underestimate his decline in this area with the fact the WR group is worse this year. Our guys can't get separation, and even Woods who is supposed to a good route runner is blanketed by every DB in the league every week. Add in we have guys who have no chemistry yet with TT, guys who don't know the playbook very well, and guys deep from our bench in the lineup.

 

I also was to know how they determine what is a throw away or incomplete pass because TT will throw passes away from inside the pocket that have to go near a receiving option...so do those get counted as an incomplete bad pass or a throw away? Its easy to identify a throw away outside the pocket because he can throw it into the stands if he wants without getting an intentional grounding penalty.

 

Also what do they count as a drop? There were more passes than that which hit the ground after hitting a WR in a place they could catch it. Our WRs just don't make plays.

Edited November 1, 2016 by Alphadawg7